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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1977288 times)
Melbustus
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December 03, 2014, 06:01:40 PM
 #18341

On monoculture and diversity...

TL;DR: Monoculture in protocols may introduce weaknesses; monoculture in a having a single ledger doesn't, and is pretty much the point of having money at all.

on bitcoin monoculture, an external to bitcoin point of view:

http://cointelegraph.com/news/113036/vitalik-buterin-challenges-the-idea-of-bitcoin-dominance-maximalism-op-ed




Vitalik is brilliant and understands code. Unfortunately, he doesn't fully understand money or human nature. I think that comes more with age/experience.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


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December 03, 2014, 06:11:53 PM
 #18342

I don't understand the fear of alts. I'm into Bitcoin because it's better money, in our history it's the best yet.
Competition is what will make it better. Alts can out innovate Bitcoin on every metric except one, the Network Effect, and this is what makes it useful as a SoV.

I think this significantly underestimates the threat of alt coins and why Bitcoin is not a given (I'm saying this as someone who believes/hopes in the project)

For example what if the US government created a USDollarCoin that:
1) has all of the benefits of programmable money, you can have your own wallet and spend it through computing devices
2) has the _perceived_ benefits of centralized control including the ability to "recover" lost coins and "reverse fraudulent" transactions (possibility a majority of people prefer this based on Bitcoin's detractors' views). This could be accomplished with forced use of multisig where the FED has co-control.
3) has significantly easier tax implications to deal with (meaning no tax implications) compared to bitcoin where EVERY transaction is a taxable event
4) launches with mass adoption through automatic bank account conversion
5) was legislated as the only legal currency

Maybe that doesn't scare you, but it scares me.

The first wave of alts were simple clones, it was almost a given that network effects would hold them back here. However the next wave of alts are going to
a) come with real innovations and then
b) come with government sanctioned force

Network effects & Bitcoin's programmable nature will probably keep a) at bay, however network effect might actually work against Bitcoin if b) ever came to pass.

I'm not saying this will happend, and it may seem far fetched today, but it is in the realm of possibilities. The US government lives off of the inflation tax and if Bitcoin ever becomes a real threat, the state will definitely try more and more attempts to maintain control of the money supply. It's possible the proposal above would be a last ditch attempt to save itself.

As I have said previously, the beauty of cryptocurrency is that it democratizes the creation of money. Competition is now possible and Bitcoin has obvious competitive advantages solely because of its monetary policy.

The USDcoin might have the benefits of digital money but carries with it the devaluation problems and the reliance on a failed, soon to be bankrupt state.

Of course we both know that to the general population this is not a real concern as they do not realize that money is stolen from their pocket through inflation but now that a deflationary alternative is available it won't take long until they realize they're on the wrong side of the fence.


"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
cypherdoc
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December 03, 2014, 06:14:44 PM
 #18343

hold on.  this should mean that fiat will be diverted to the price:

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December 03, 2014, 06:19:49 PM
 #18344

The first wave of alts were simple clones, it was almost a given that network effects would hold them back here. However the next wave of alts are going to
a) come with real innovations and then
b) come with government sanctioned force


i think a) and b) are oxymorons.  force precludes the need to innovate.  thus Bitcoin will always have that advantage.  we've already seen the failure of MintChip due to just this dynamic.

the creation of USDCoin would be a tacit admission by the govt that Bitcoin has merit and, paradoxically to their wishes, money will always flow to that platform which treats it best.  that can't happen with an inflationary, violent coin.
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December 03, 2014, 06:27:59 PM
 #18345

nothing hotter than a chick with passion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYICruxUkNI
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December 03, 2014, 06:30:06 PM
 #18346

nothing hotter than a chick with passion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYICruxUkNI

this one is: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=julia+tourianski+bitcoin
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December 03, 2014, 06:35:40 PM
 #18347

"It is absolutely out of the question that these banks will transfer money over the actual bitcoin blockchain out of reach from the Dutch central bank.”

http://www.coindesk.com/top-dutch-banks-confirm-blockchain-experiments/

if they won't transfer money over the blockchain, you can only imagine their resistance to transferring speculative assets.
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December 03, 2014, 06:36:10 PM
 #18348


i didn't say "this", i said "a".
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December 03, 2014, 06:39:26 PM
 #18349


I know:P Just wanted to share some love.
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December 03, 2014, 06:40:24 PM
 #18350

I don't understand the fear of alts. I'm into Bitcoin because it's better money, in our history it's the best yet.
Competition is what will make it better. Alts can out innovate Bitcoin on every metric except one, the Network Effect, and this is what makes it useful as a SoV.

I think this significantly underestimates the threat of alt coins and why Bitcoin is not a given (I'm saying this as someone who believes/hopes in the project)

For example what if the US government created a USDollarCoin that:
1) has all of the benefits of programmable money, you can have your own wallet and spend it through computing devices
2) has the _perceived_ benefits of centralized control including the ability to "recover" lost coins and "reverse fraudulent" transactions (possibility a majority of people prefer this based on Bitcoin's detractors' views). This could be accomplished with forced use of multisig where the FED has co-control.
3) has significantly easier tax implications to deal with (meaning no tax implications) compared to bitcoin where EVERY transaction is a taxable event
4) launches with mass adoption through automatic bank account conversion
5) was legislated as the only legal currency

Maybe that doesn't scare you, but it scares me.

The first wave of alts were simple clones, it was almost a given that network effects would hold them back here. However the next wave of alts are going to
a) come with real innovations and then
b) come with government sanctioned force

Network effects & Bitcoin's programmable nature will probably keep a) at bay, however network effect might actually work against Bitcoin if b) ever came to pass.

I'm not saying this will happend, and it may seem far fetched today, but it is in the realm of possibilities. The US government lives off of the inflation tax and if Bitcoin ever becomes a real threat, the state will definitely try more and more attempts to maintain control of the money supply. It's possible the proposal above would be a last ditch attempt to save itself.

As I have said previously, the beauty of cryptocurrency is that it democratizes the creation of money. Competition is now possible and Bitcoin has obvious competitive advantages solely because of its monetary policy.

This is exactly right, Bitcoin enabled real competition with state fiat money and has provided us a fighting chance.

My main point was it will be a fight and Bitcoin's success is anything but a given.

The USDcoin might have the benefits of digital money but carries with it the devaluation problems and the reliance on a failed, soon to be bankrupt state.

Of course we both know that to the general population this is not a real concern as they do not realize that money is stolen from their pocket through inflation but now that a deflationary alternative is available it won't take long until they realize they're on the wrong side of the fence.

And those views will be part of the fight, a fight proponents of the gold standard lost BTW. The majority today are against a gold standard, I can't count the number of times I've been told that the gold standard caused the great depression, which is blatantly false but has been taught in the common core for generations. I think it will be an uphill battle to convince minds they should prefer "Bitcoin as a better gold standard" over a slow inflation fiat money with _perceived_ security.

The views held in this thread are contrary to many many people, even if we know we are "right".
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December 03, 2014, 06:44:02 PM
 #18351

Also i expect about 50% of mined coins to make it into the market as most miners can cover all costs and comfortably save 50% of there BTC income. (the proponents will be saving anyway)  

Some interesting analysis on coin movements:

http://www.coindesk.com/analysis-around-70-bitcoins-dormant-least-six-months/

Buy & Hold
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December 03, 2014, 06:46:26 PM
 #18352

if you hadn't noticed this great new podcast by Trace Mayer.  Trace is someone who can talk and think at the same time which is rare in the Bitcoin podcast world.  it's now my default and i'm crossing the others off my list.  here Trace talks with Miles Cowen another attorney about integrating speculative assets into the blockchain.  he agrees with me that this will be messy. 

for me, it's clear that these features won't be practical or in demand until Bitcoin can establish itself as a major global, secure, sound money in Forex markets with its own trading symbol.  no one will layer or risk any trillion dollar market on a $5B Bitcoin platform.  we probably need to get to $500B in Bitcoin market cap before these strategies will be consider with more certainty by established actors.

http://podcast.runtogold.com/2014/11/btck-111-2014-11-27/
rocks
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December 03, 2014, 06:46:57 PM
 #18353

The first wave of alts were simple clones, it was almost a given that network effects would hold them back here. However the next wave of alts are going to
a) come with real innovations and then
b) come with government sanctioned force


i think a) and b) are oxymorons.  force precludes the need to innovate.  thus Bitcoin will always have that advantage.  we've already seen the failure of MintChip due to just this dynamic.

Yes, I was saying they are different coins and different attempts. The first wave were the clones (which we've already had), the next wave a) will have some level of actual innovation, and the wave after that b) would be government attempts to resist Bitcoin and regain control.

the creation of USDCoin would be a tacit admission by the govt that Bitcoin has merit and, paradoxically to their wishes, money will always flow to that platform which treats it best.  that can't happen with an inflationary, violent coin.

It would be an admission by the government that Bitcoin has merit. It would also be sold to the public as having all the benefits of Bitcoin with all the security of government money. Given the history of money, this has worked. It did for the FED in the 1930's.
cypherdoc
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December 03, 2014, 06:51:17 PM
 #18354

The first wave of alts were simple clones, it was almost a given that network effects would hold them back here. However the next wave of alts are going to
a) come with real innovations and then
b) come with government sanctioned force


i think a) and b) are oxymorons.  force precludes the need to innovate.  thus Bitcoin will always have that advantage.  we've already seen the failure of MintChip due to just this dynamic.

Yes, I was saying they are different coins and different attempts. The first wave were the clones (which we've already had), the next wave a) will have some level of actual innovation, and the wave after that b) would be government attempts to resist Bitcoin and regain control.

the creation of USDCoin would be a tacit admission by the govt that Bitcoin has merit and, paradoxically to their wishes, money will always flow to that platform which treats it best.  that can't happen with an inflationary, violent coin.

It would be an admission by the government that Bitcoin has merit. It would also be sold to the public as having all the benefits of Bitcoin with all the security of government money. Given the history of money, this has worked. It did for the FED in the 1930's.

it did back then.  but i highly doubt that type of deception is really working today with the Internet.  look at consumer sentiment surveys and low investment levels in the stock mkt.  ppl know something isn't quite right and its reflected in their stagnating paychecks.
brg444
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December 03, 2014, 06:52:59 PM
 #18355

I don't understand the fear of alts. I'm into Bitcoin because it's better money, in our history it's the best yet.
Competition is what will make it better. Alts can out innovate Bitcoin on every metric except one, the Network Effect, and this is what makes it useful as a SoV.

I think this significantly underestimates the threat of alt coins and why Bitcoin is not a given (I'm saying this as someone who believes/hopes in the project)

For example what if the US government created a USDollarCoin that:
1) has all of the benefits of programmable money, you can have your own wallet and spend it through computing devices
2) has the _perceived_ benefits of centralized control including the ability to "recover" lost coins and "reverse fraudulent" transactions (possibility a majority of people prefer this based on Bitcoin's detractors' views). This could be accomplished with forced use of multisig where the FED has co-control.
3) has significantly easier tax implications to deal with (meaning no tax implications) compared to bitcoin where EVERY transaction is a taxable event
4) launches with mass adoption through automatic bank account conversion
5) was legislated as the only legal currency

Maybe that doesn't scare you, but it scares me.

The first wave of alts were simple clones, it was almost a given that network effects would hold them back here. However the next wave of alts are going to
a) come with real innovations and then
b) come with government sanctioned force

Network effects & Bitcoin's programmable nature will probably keep a) at bay, however network effect might actually work against Bitcoin if b) ever came to pass.

I'm not saying this will happend, and it may seem far fetched today, but it is in the realm of possibilities. The US government lives off of the inflation tax and if Bitcoin ever becomes a real threat, the state will definitely try more and more attempts to maintain control of the money supply. It's possible the proposal above would be a last ditch attempt to save itself.

As I have said previously, the beauty of cryptocurrency is that it democratizes the creation of money. Competition is now possible and Bitcoin has obvious competitive advantages solely because of its monetary policy.

This is exactly right, Bitcoin enabled real competition with state fiat money and has provided us a fighting chance.

My main point was it will be a fight and Bitcoin's success is anything but a given.

The USDcoin might have the benefits of digital money but carries with it the devaluation problems and the reliance on a failed, soon to be bankrupt state.

Of course we both know that to the general population this is not a real concern as they do not realize that money is stolen from their pocket through inflation but now that a deflationary alternative is available it won't take long until they realize they're on the wrong side of the fence.

And those views will be part of the fight, a fight proponents of the gold standard lost BTW. The majority today are against a gold standard, I can't count the number of times I've been told that the gold standard caused the great depression, which is blatantly false but has been taught in the common core for generations. I think it will be an uphill battle to convince minds they should prefer "Bitcoin as a better gold standard" over a slow inflation fiat money with _perceived_ security.

The views held in this thread are contrary to many many people, even if we know we are "right".


Agreed.

One thing we have going for us though is greed. If there is money to be made holding your wealth in Bitcoin then people will gravitate toward that option.

I have this "vision" of a Bitcoin "bank" that offers risk-free accounts denominated in USD with preferable interest rates that regular fiat banks can not compete with. If this "product" can be offered to mainstream people then Bitcoin will gain ground very, very quickly.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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December 03, 2014, 07:02:10 PM
 #18356

...
I have this "vision" of a Bitcoin "bank" that offers risk-free accounts denominated in USD with preferable interest rates that regular fiat banks can not compete with. If this "product" can be offered to mainstream people then Bitcoin will gain ground very, very quickly.

That you, Danny?
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December 03, 2014, 07:11:12 PM
 #18357

Bitcoin Core Developer Greg Maxwell Has ‘Ethical Concerns’ with Altcoins

http://insidebitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-core-developer-greg-maxwell-has-ethical-concerns-with-altcoins/26952
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December 03, 2014, 07:25:45 PM
 #18358

once again, this is why we need to continue focus on what has got us here, Bitcoin as Sound Money.  b/c one day, the sharks will be coming not for your stocks, bonds, or insurance contracts, but your money:

All this fancy footwork is to prevent a run on the TBTF banks, in order to keep their derivatives casino going with our money. Warren Buffett called derivatives “weapons of financial mass destruction,” and many commentators warn that they are a time bomb waiting to explode. When that happens, our deposits, our pensions, and our public investment funds will all be subject to confiscation in a “bail in.” Perhaps it is time to pull our money out of Wall Street and set up our own banks – banks that will serve the people because they are owned by the people.

http://ellenbrown.com/2014/12/01/new-rules-cyprus-style-bail-ins-to-hit-deposits-and-pensions/

hmmm, those personal banks sound like Bitcoin.
Adrian-x
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December 03, 2014, 07:33:00 PM
 #18359

I don't understand the fear of alts. I'm into Bitcoin because it's better money, in our history it's the best yet.
Competition is what will make it better. Alts can out innovate Bitcoin on every metric except one, the Network Effect, and this is what makes it useful as a SoV.

I think this significantly underestimates the threat of alt coins and why Bitcoin is not a given (I'm saying this as someone who believes/hopes in the project)

For example what if the US government created a USDollarCoin that:
1) has all of the benefits of programmable money, you can have your own wallet and spend it through computing devices
2) has the _perceived_ benefits of centralized control including the ability to "recover" lost coins and "reverse fraudulent" transactions (possibility a majority of people prefer this based on Bitcoin's detractors' views). This could be accomplished with forced use of multisig where the FED has co-control.
3) has significantly easier tax implications to deal with (meaning no tax implications) compared to bitcoin where EVERY transaction is a taxable event
4) launches with mass adoption through automatic bank account conversion
5) was legislated as the only legal currency

Maybe that doesn't scare you, but it scares me.


The first wave of alts were simple clones, it was almost a given that network effects would hold them back here. However the next wave of alts are going to
a) come with real innovations and then
b) come with government sanctioned force

Network effects & Bitcoin's programmable nature will probably keep a) at bay, however network effect might actually work against Bitcoin if b) ever came to pass.

I'm not saying this will happend, and it may seem far fetched today, but it is in the realm of possibilities. The US government lives off of the inflation tax and if Bitcoin ever becomes a real threat, the state will definitely try more and more attempts to maintain control of the money supply. It's possible the proposal above would be a last ditch attempt to save itself.

No that's not as scary as doing all that on a SideChain, that scheme could just eat Bitcoins for breakfast if you throw in a 1934 Gold Reserve Act 2016 Bitcoin Reserve Act with a diminishing peg!

I'm only interested in investing in creating a world with a hard money supply. I don't actually need the hard money to be Bitcoin the fact it can be and it is and I'm invested in it is a bonus, I just want a sustainable self regulating world and Bitcoin seems to be the most efficient way to get there. I'll stick my neck out and say it's the best shot we've had in over a 100 years and if we fail the results would be devastating.  I have spent an inordinate amount of time probing and investing in many of the alt coin sachems, none in my opinion are a threat to Bitcoin, and now they are growing at a rate too complex for most to understand let alone comprehend.

For Bitcoin to succeed it just needs to be a store of value, it doesn't need to compete with the Bitcoin 2.0 Turing complete ideas to stay relevant, its not better services or better trust in institutions but trust in a better money will drive this revolution, Bitcoin is that, and it doesn't have any competition yet.

I for one welcome all forms of competition the more the better, it just makes Bitcoin more relevant, the more complex the situation becomes the more valuable a simple solution is. We have to stay vigilant, and pay attention, your Bitcoin profits are not guaranteed.    

the state is just a bunch of people doing what they know to be good, a little education and an investment in Bitcoin will help align self interest with public good and heal any perversions we see today. 


Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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December 03, 2014, 07:41:28 PM
 #18360

Yes, I was saying they are different coins and different attempts. The first wave were the clones (which we've already had), the next wave a) will have some level of actual innovation, and the wave after that b) would be government attempts to resist Bitcoin and regain control.

the creation of USDCoin would be a tacit admission by the govt that Bitcoin has merit and, paradoxically to their wishes, money will always flow to that platform which treats it best.  that can't happen with an inflationary, violent coin.

It would be an admission by the government that Bitcoin has merit. It would also be sold to the public as having all the benefits of Bitcoin with all the security of government money. Given the history of money, this has worked. It did for the FED in the 1930's.
Let's be clear here. Taking the existing banking system, add in lower fees and faster transactions, is nothing like bitcoin.  It's just the same old shit, but not quite as stuck in the dark ages as it is now.

The concept of a government-controlled blockchain is complete nonsense.  Those two things are mutually exclusive, as soon as a central authority has control of the blockchain, the entire thing becomes a waste of resources. You'd get the same effect from the government just running a centralized database, except it's much more efficient.
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