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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1977519 times)
rocks
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December 02, 2014, 07:36:20 PM
 #18261

What most people fail to realize when they see what appears to be the insanely fast price appreciation of XBT over the last few years, is how many years went into this before 2009, and how slow the revolutionary change has been... and still is.

We're like the folks in the 1860's marveling at the wonders of the first production quality internal combustion engines.  We are saying things like "think of how this will change the railroads" the societal impacts are vastly more complicated and far reaching.

The changes to come over the next couple hundred years from these innovations are outside the imagination of most anyone.  It is easy to be judgmental.

Yes, this.

There are numerous examples of what you describe, where foundations are formed over many decades and then come together in a manner that both appears sudden but also has continuous expanding impact. Take the internet & mobile computing for example, there were numerous advancements in many fields, network theory, computing, radio communications, displays, etc over many decades prior to the mid-late 90s. Then all of a sudden they came together to form global internet connectivity with mobile devices. The change appeared fast, but only to someone not involved with the foundational advancements. I don't even know how I'll describe to my kids what life was like before the internet and smartphones.

There was a semi-famous Russian scientist (forgot who) who complained several years ago that Apple/Steve Jobs didn't really create or invent anything and that the iPhone/iPad were nothing. What he was really saying is Apple simply packaged together a bunch of existing technologies, and was receiving out-sized credit & reward compared to the foundational work that came prior.

Satoshi similarly brought together a large mix of existing technologies to form Bitcoin (in a very elegant fashion). For example, could bitcoin work without mobile internet connected devices? Probably not since I'm not sure how cash style transaction could easily be performed. The list of things that need to be in place is quite long.
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December 02, 2014, 07:38:09 PM
 #18262

once again, we have a really good opportunity to form a Dow Theory non-confirmation.

given the huge, straight up nature of both indices over the last 2 mo, and the depth of the drop in the $DJT yesterday, i'd say it's almost certain we'll get the beginnings of one if the $DJI can go up to a new high in the next day or so.  then the question will be whether or not it can confirm itself.  high alert in equities:



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December 02, 2014, 08:10:06 PM
 #18263

well, with this last ramp 30 min ago, we now have a Dow Theory non-confirmation in place already.  the next few days will be crucial for the $DJT to demonstrate whether or not it can also set a new high in the short term.  somehow, i doubt it:

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December 02, 2014, 08:14:19 PM
 #18264

this is big:

Online Poker: PokerStars and rumors about Bitcoin

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pokerfirma.com%2Fnews%2Fpokerstars-bitcoin-poker%2F274522&edit-text=&act=url
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December 02, 2014, 08:32:20 PM
 #18265


:-)  PokerStars can be built as SC(managed by bitcoin protocol) so we can audit it and enforce btc payments.

Edit:
PokerStars will be SC. And it can be SC managed by bitcoin protocol.
Erdogan
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December 02, 2014, 08:39:54 PM
 #18266

Yes but there are still advantages to decentralizing the transaction even if redemption must be centralized, because redemption happens rarely.  Also,  if stocks, bonds or mortgages are directly offered on the blockchain (as opposed to representing certificates stored in a vault) they simultaneously represent something but also are themselves property.

I agree that decentralizing the transactions of stocks, bonds and mortgages may have advantages.   I guess I'm just slightly annoyed by the meme that "currency is only the first app of blockchain technology."  What needs to eventually be understood by the media is that:

(1) Currency is the foundational application of blockchain technology; without a valuable currency, no other apps are possible.
(2) The native blockchain units (bitcoins) are the only asset with no counterparty risk.


Many people have a problem conceptually separating the need to trust a counterparty to fulfill a contract, and the need to trust a ledger system to accurately record ownership information.

It's possible to make the latter arbitrarily small, but there's no technological solution to the former as it's inherent to the problem space.

Yes, well said.  We need to stress the distinction between trust of the ledger system and trust of the counterparty (and then point out that bitcoin is fundamentally different as it has no counterparty [or perhaps the counterparty is the ledger system itself]).  

Justus, I see you're giving a talk via telepresence in Vancouver on Thursday.  What will you be speaking about?



Other uses of blockchain technology (and not the bitcoin blockchain, it is easy to construct blockchains with less security) is where the good is only information, for example the right to access a theater (a ticket). You can show up at the entrance with a ticket "coin" (a better word needs to be invented) and send the ticket to the ticket office for admission. It could be done with an association of theaters where each theater runs a miner, and no block reward is necessary.


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December 02, 2014, 08:42:26 PM
 #18267

Yes but there are still advantages to decentralizing the transaction even if redemption must be centralized, because redemption happens rarely.  Also,  if stocks, bonds or mortgages are directly offered on the blockchain (as opposed to representing certificates stored in a vault) they simultaneously represent something but also are themselves property.

I agree that decentralizing the transactions of stocks, bonds and mortgages may have advantages.   I guess I'm just slightly annoyed by the meme that "currency is only the first app of blockchain technology."  What needs to eventually be understood by the media is that:

(1) Currency is the foundational application of blockchain technology; without a valuable currency, no other apps are possible.
(2) The native blockchain units (bitcoins) are the only asset with no counterparty risk.


Many people have a problem conceptually separating the need to trust a counterparty to fulfill a contract, and the need to trust a ledger system to accurately record ownership information.

It's possible to make the latter arbitrarily small, but there's no technological solution to the former as it's inherent to the problem space.

Yes, well said.  We need to stress the distinction between trust of the ledger system and trust of the counterparty (and then point out that bitcoin is fundamentally different as it has no counterparty [or perhaps the counterparty is the ledger system itself]).  

Justus, I see you're giving a talk via telepresence in Vancouver on Thursday.  What will you be speaking about?



Other uses of blockchain technology (and not the bitcoin blockchain, it is easy to construct blockchains with less security) is where the good is only information, for example the right to access a theater (a ticket). You can show up at the entrance with a ticket "coin" (a better word needs to be invented) and send the ticket to the ticket office for admission. It could be done with an association of theaters where each theater runs a miner, and no block reward is necessary.

I fail to see why you would need a blockchain for that though... Any centralized server model could do.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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December 02, 2014, 08:46:30 PM
 #18268

Yes but there are still advantages to decentralizing the transaction even if redemption must be centralized, because redemption happens rarely.  Also,  if stocks, bonds or mortgages are directly offered on the blockchain (as opposed to representing certificates stored in a vault) they simultaneously represent something but also are themselves property.

I agree that decentralizing the transactions of stocks, bonds and mortgages may have advantages.   I guess I'm just slightly annoyed by the meme that "currency is only the first app of blockchain technology."  What needs to eventually be understood by the media is that:

(1) Currency is the foundational application of blockchain technology; without a valuable currency, no other apps are possible.
(2) The native blockchain units (bitcoins) are the only asset with no counterparty risk.


Many people have a problem conceptually separating the need to trust a counterparty to fulfill a contract, and the need to trust a ledger system to accurately record ownership information.

It's possible to make the latter arbitrarily small, but there's no technological solution to the former as it's inherent to the problem space.

Yes, well said.  We need to stress the distinction between trust of the ledger system and trust of the counterparty (and then point out that bitcoin is fundamentally different as it has no counterparty [or perhaps the counterparty is the ledger system itself]).  

Justus, I see you're giving a talk via telepresence in Vancouver on Thursday.  What will you be speaking about?



Other uses of blockchain technology (and not the bitcoin blockchain, it is easy to construct blockchains with less security) is where the good is only information, for example the right to access a theater (a ticket). You can show up at the entrance with a ticket "coin" (a better word needs to be invented) and send the ticket to the ticket office for admission. It could be done with an association of theaters where each theater runs a miner, and no block reward is necessary.

I fail to see why you would need a blockchain for that though... Any centralized server model could do.

That is what we have, but this one would have tickets which are transferable, and the uptime of a distributed system. Ticket sale could therefore be distributed without the need for agreement for the distributor (he just buys tickets and resell them).


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December 02, 2014, 08:49:51 PM
 #18269



English only, at the tables, please!
(Translate not working, and all I can find in English is: http://gamblingcompliance.com/premium-content/news_analysis/bitcoin-push-gathers-strength-pokerstars-interested)

Anyway, Bitcoin has been an obvious fit for the poker-world for years. That was one of my first thoughts in 2011. Especially after Black Friday, but even before, dealing with sketchy fiat intermediaries to fund/withdraw-from poker sites was always awful for people.

Furthermore, if PokerStars integrated bitcoin, it would be a hopefully-fatal blow to this nonsense: http://www.coindesk.com/stakes-high-star-backed-bitcoin-gambling-site-crowdsale-stumbles/ Brocoin....wtf.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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December 02, 2014, 09:10:06 PM
 #18270

Does it go unnoticed that executives from Citibank can't seem to stop talking about Bitcoin?  Why would they bother if they really believe it has no future?   Wink

http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/

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December 02, 2014, 09:12:51 PM
 #18271

Does it go unnoticed that executives from Citibank can't seem to stop talking about Bitcoin?  Why would they bother if they really believe it has no future?   Wink

http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/



Then they fight you.

They've been at it for a while. When do we win again?

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December 02, 2014, 09:19:29 PM
 #18272

what do you guys think of https://www.digitaltangibletrust.com ?
Anyone using it?
If btc rises much before pm I am tempted to use it.
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December 02, 2014, 09:25:26 PM
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what do you guys think of https://www.digitaltangibletrust.com ?
Anyone using it?
If btc rises much before pm I am tempted to use it.

Quote
Place your gold or silver in secured and bonded custody to receive your digital tokens.

This looks no better than paper gold.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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December 02, 2014, 09:33:10 PM
 #18274

Does it go unnoticed that executives from Citibank can't seem to stop talking about Bitcoin?  Why would they bother if they really believe it has no future?   Wink

http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/


It is a bit like kids and horror stories. Frightening, but titillating.

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December 02, 2014, 09:35:42 PM
 #18275

what do you guys think of https://www.digitaltangibletrust.com ?
Anyone using it?
If btc rises much before pm I am tempted to use it.

Quote
Place your gold or silver in secured and bonded custody to receive your digital tokens.

This looks no better than paper gold.

yes but it seems somewhat more transparent and decentralized.
It could be a good compromise for who wants to trade frequently and stay liquid if it works.

Of course who wants to hodl forever does not need it.
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December 02, 2014, 09:43:09 PM
 #18276

what do you guys think of https://www.digitaltangibletrust.com ?
Anyone using it?
If btc rises much before pm I am tempted to use it.

Quote
Place your gold or silver in secured and bonded custody to receive your digital tokens.

This looks no better than paper gold.

yes but it seems somewhat more transparent and decentralized.
It could be a good compromise for who wants to trade frequently and stay liquidity if it works.

Of course who wants to hodl forever does not need it.

Decentralized?

The gold is sitting in one vault.

It's funny, that's exactly what we've been discussing for the last couple pages

Like you pointed out, there's a fundamental difference between the transfer of a bitcoin, and the transfer of a token that represents a claim on some external-to-the-blockchain property.  In the latter case (asset-backed tokens), all that is transferred is ownership (and ownership is really a social construct, valuable only to the extent that one's society is willing to enforce property rights [as control of the property in question remains a physical problem]).  In the former case (bitcoin), what's transferred is control itself.

Yes the token system is decentralized but the asset(gold) is not. It is still very much controlled by a third-party and no more transparent then regular paper gold schemes

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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December 02, 2014, 09:58:22 PM
 #18277

this sounds pretty amazing.  anyone see any holes?

http://blog.choosecase.com/
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December 02, 2014, 10:04:40 PM
 #18278

i'm gonna argue how nicely mining is decentralizing based on this recent chart.  the nice Nash Equilibrium is equilibrating nicely.  the biggest growth is in the smaller pools:

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December 02, 2014, 10:09:19 PM
 #18279

i'm also going to claim that it's being driven by the commoditization of hardware as indicated by the leveling off of the hashrate.  prices have plunged 10-fold allowing more and more smaller pools into the game.  this was predicted here long ago:



furthermore, now that money has appeared to slow to a crawl into the mining "bucket", i think it's now time for that money to flow into the BTC price "bucket".  so hold on.

http://www.coindesk.com/btc-chinas-new-pool-mines-3325-btc-five-weeks/
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December 02, 2014, 10:13:01 PM
 #18280

this sounds pretty amazing.  anyone see any holes?

http://blog.choosecase.com/

Yeah I'm impressed, plus the founder is super hot.  Grin

Hole #1 : no working unit yet. still a prototype so let's see

I'm also curious about how the entropy and how they generate randomness. Even though I own a trezor I'm always kind of on the fence about using third-party hardware to generate my private key.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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