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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2011796 times)
cypherdoc
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March 09, 2015, 08:28:55 PM
 #21781


Maybe define the interconnectedness of ledgers as the inverse of the cost to move money between them.  But this cost function is not just exchange fees.  It would ideally take into account the amortized cost to set up and maintain accounts in various exchanges, the time value of the money while it is inaccessible (presumably the inter-ledger exchange takes more time then intra-ledger exchange), and other such externalities.




if i'm not mistaken, he's talking about other blockchains, like those of altcoins and sidechains.
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March 09, 2015, 08:29:10 PM
 #21782

^Quite nervous today are we?

I'm no "newbie troll" dude.


All I meant is that your post "you said this stuff but you said it before a pump therefore it's bullshit" was childish. That is all.
cypherdoc
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March 09, 2015, 08:33:18 PM
 #21783

^Quite nervous today are we?

I'm no "newbie troll" dude.


All I meant is that your post "you said this stuff but you said it before a pump therefore it's bullshit" was childish. That is all.

no, i'm pointing out that the tenor and content of his posts follow along with the price and reflect his emotional attachment to it.  that's pretty clear.
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March 09, 2015, 08:36:03 PM
 #21784

'Last month the Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, Japan’s Naoyuki Shinohara, openly stated that emerging markets in Asia should begin the process of de-dollarisation “to mitigate against external shocks and constraining the central bank’s ability as lender of last resort.”'

http://www.goldcore.com/ie/gold-blog/currency-wars-continue-imf-concedes-end-dollar-hegemony/?utm_content=12813987&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
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March 09, 2015, 10:02:11 PM
 #21785


Maybe define the interconnectedness of ledgers as the inverse of the cost to move money between them.  But this cost function is not just exchange fees.  It would ideally take into account the amortized cost to set up and maintain accounts in various exchanges, the time value of the money while it is inaccessible (presumably the inter-ledger exchange takes more time then intra-ledger exchange), and other such externalities.




if i'm not mistaken, he's talking about other blockchains, like those of altcoins and sidechains.

I think you could generalize to all ledgers including implicit ones like fiat currencies.
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March 09, 2015, 10:57:18 PM
 #21786


Maybe define the interconnectedness of ledgers as the inverse of the cost to move money between them.  But this cost function is not just exchange fees.  It would ideally take into account the amortized cost to set up and maintain accounts in various exchanges, the time value of the money while it is inaccessible (presumably the inter-ledger exchange takes more time then intra-ledger exchange), and other such externalities.




if i'm not mistaken, he's talking about other blockchains, like those of altcoins and sidechains.

I think you could generalize to all ledgers including implicit ones like fiat currencies.
I have worked out a way of discussing the network effect as it relates to the interaction between Bitcoin, other blockchains, sidechains, various off-chain systems, and fiat currencies, and conversion friction is the centrepiece of that method, and I'm saving it for a future article because nobody seems to read the 4500 word ones.
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March 10, 2015, 01:05:31 AM
 #21787


Maybe define the interconnectedness of ledgers as the inverse of the cost to move money between them.  But this cost function is not just exchange fees.  It would ideally take into account the amortized cost to set up and maintain accounts in various exchanges, the time value of the money while it is inaccessible (presumably the inter-ledger exchange takes more time then intra-ledger exchange), and other such externalities.




if i'm not mistaken, he's talking about other blockchains, like those of altcoins and sidechains.

I think you could generalize to all ledgers including implicit ones like fiat currencies.
I have worked out a way of discussing the network effect as it relates to the interaction between Bitcoin, other blockchains, sidechains, various off-chain systems, and fiat currencies, and conversion friction is the centrepiece of that method, and I'm saving it for a future article because nobody seems to read the 4500 word ones.

That will be a fascinating article.  Since the triple bubble I've thought that BTC and social media would force a rewrite of the intro to economics textbook and I think you're writing a chapter here.
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March 10, 2015, 01:10:26 AM
 #21788


Maybe define the interconnectedness of ledgers as the inverse of the cost to move money between them.  But this cost function is not just exchange fees.  It would ideally take into account the amortized cost to set up and maintain accounts in various exchanges, the time value of the money while it is inaccessible (presumably the inter-ledger exchange takes more time then intra-ledger exchange), and other such externalities.




if i'm not mistaken, he's talking about other blockchains, like those of altcoins and sidechains.

I think you could generalize to all ledgers including implicit ones like fiat currencies.
I have worked out a way of discussing the network effect as it relates to the interaction between Bitcoin, other blockchains, sidechains, various off-chain systems, and fiat currencies, and conversion friction is the centrepiece of that method, and I'm saving it for a future article because nobody seems to read the 4500 word ones.

you mean a 2wp that locks up your money for at least a 2d minimum, may also force you to post a bounty, & is at high risk of being stolen is considered friction?
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March 10, 2015, 02:23:21 AM
 #21789

I think you're writing a chapter here.
The more articles I write, the longer my backlog of articles I need to write becomes.

I'm not sure I like where this trend is going...

you mean a 2wp that locks up your money for at least a 2d minimum, may also force you to post a bounty, & is at high risk of being stolen is considered friction?

There's good news and bad news:

They are right that increased adoption on sidechains would increase the exchange rate of Bitcoins via the network effect, but not as much as if that friction didn't exist (all transactions on one chain).

Note that is a separate issue from the effect sidechains could have on mining incentives and the reliability of PoW itself.
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March 10, 2015, 03:19:43 AM
 #21790

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
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March 10, 2015, 03:22:08 AM
 #21791

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.

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cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 03:34:37 AM
 #21792

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.

i don't think it's funny at all.  it's expected after such a prolonged, deep pullback.

if anything, it's a warning notice to anything dollar related including stock and bonds.  i'm beginning to think we'll have one more push up for the dollar followed by a potential collapse.  UST's would be bought as a result as i don't believe in the next crisis that both can go up as they did in 2008.  we'll see.
sidhujag
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March 10, 2015, 03:37:16 AM
 #21793

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.

i don't think it's funny at all.  it's expected after such a prolonged, deep pullback.

if anything, it's a warning notice to anything dollar related including stock and bonds.  i'm beginning to think we'll have one more push up for the dollar followed by a potential collapse.  UST's would be bought as a result as i don't believe in the next crisis that both can go up as they did in 2008.  we'll see.
It will prob stay up for awhile.. Maybe year or longer and bubble up like bitcoin did at the end... Maybe 130ish

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Melbustus
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March 10, 2015, 03:41:15 AM
 #21794

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.


Bitcoin shouldn't have an obvious correlation to the dollar; at least not for a while (despite what guys like Citi's Englander repeatedly say (based on statistically insignificant data, I might add)). Right now, bitcoin is many things, including a theoretical inflation hedge commodity, cash, and a tech growth stock, trading in a very thin market. Good luck finding a tidy correlation to the dollar, gold, the S&P, oil, or anything else.

In any event, from a portfolio diversification standpoint, having no strong correlation to any other major asset class is a nice property.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Cryptoasset rankings and metrics for investors: http://onchainfx.com
cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 03:41:41 AM
 #21795

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.

i don't think it's funny at all.  it's expected after such a prolonged, deep pullback.

if anything, it's a warning notice to anything dollar related including stock and bonds.  i'm beginning to think we'll have one more push up for the dollar followed by a potential collapse.  UST's would be bought as a result as i don't believe in the next crisis that both can go up as they did in 2008.  we'll see.
It will prob stay up for awhile.. Maybe year or longer and bubble up like bitcoin did at the end... Maybe 130ish

that's certainly the conventional wisdom and has been mine up til now since last summer.  however, i don't like the straight up, relentless rise along with the large pullback in UST's.  one of them is going to fail in the next crisis; my bet is that when push comes to shove, UST's will be bought with freshly debased dollars to keep interest rates down and bond prices elevated.  in these days where debt equals money, it's the path of least resistance. 

all this means Bitcoin will soar.
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March 10, 2015, 03:43:44 AM
 #21796

...one of them is going to fail in the next crisis; my bet is that when push comes to shove, UST's will be bought with freshly debased dollars to keep interest rates down and bond prices elevated.  in these days where debt equals money, it's the path of least resistance.  
...


Agreed. The 21st century motto of all major central banks: "Buy all the bonds!"

Edit: And I do mean *all* the bonds in some cases... What % of new issuance is BoJ buying these days? >75%, right?

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Cryptoasset rankings and metrics for investors: http://onchainfx.com
sidhujag
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March 10, 2015, 03:57:06 AM
 #21797

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.

i don't think it's funny at all.  it's expected after such a prolonged, deep pullback.

if anything, it's a warning notice to anything dollar related including stock and bonds.  i'm beginning to think we'll have one more push up for the dollar followed by a potential collapse.  UST's would be bought as a result as i don't believe in the next crisis that both can go up as they did in 2008.  we'll see.
It will prob stay up for awhile.. Maybe year or longer and bubble up like bitcoin did at the end... Maybe 130ish

that's certainly the conventional wisdom and has been mine up til now since last summer.  however, i don't like the straight up, relentless rise along with the large pullback in UST's.  one of them is going to fail in the next crisis; my bet is that when push comes to shove, UST's will be bought with freshly debased dollars to keep interest rates down and bond prices elevated.  in these days where debt equals money, it's the path of least resistance.  

all this means Bitcoin will soar.
Usd had a longer prolonged range period at the bottom near 80 where ive been saying for years to buy.. It has had more of a spring reload than bitcoin.. Think bitcoin here for another year and half to be the same... So in effect i think its just getting started.. Prob is bitcoin is not considered valid money yet by the big boys so usd is still ideal money and best option mext to other currencies.. Gold and silver are too manipulated by few market makers...

Once next qe happens at a peak then confidence may shift to bitcoin if its stable or rising since then

★☆★Syscoin - Decentralized Marketplace and Multisig Platform
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cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 04:08:25 AM
 #21798

a series of these 33% ramps in interest rates can't be tolerated for long.  the whole debt edifice would collapse.  UST's need to be bought hard so something will have to be sacrificed.  stocks are at a long term peak; good candidate #1.  USD straight up ramp since the summer; good candidate #2.  and it has to happen sooner than you think:

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March 10, 2015, 04:12:23 AM
 #21799

...

this is tvbcof on the day of the last plunge down to 155.  nice memorial.
Why are you mentioning short term price action with regards to what he said (he didn't even mention current price)?
Some of them are good points IMHO.

I hope you don't believe that price pumping short term (or even medium-long term for that matter) means that not even some of his arguments are valid or something...

you can stop hoping right there.  i think his concerns are invalid.
In that case you don't think it's more appropriate to provide arguments against his views instead of mentioning price at the time of his post which has little relevance at all?

i have 4 yrs worth of arguments against his positions littered throughout this thread.  just because you, as a newbie troll, can't be bothered to go back and read up on those arguments doesn't mean i haven't provided them.

let's be clear; tvbcof and i disagree on everything.  if he says black, i say white.  that's just a fact.  i'd put him on ignore if he weren't so amusing.

Damn Cyph...thanks for doing a great job of editing my post (snipped for brevity.)  I'm especially proud of that post and I would not change a word, and you've highlighted the critical parts nicely.

The dominant crypto-currency (currently Bitcoin) is, as I've been saying since 2011, worth easily 5 figures and probably 6 in the right circumstance.  Maybe even more.  That circumstance is a failure of the mainstream currency system.  I do hope it's Bitcoin which ends up in this position because I'm a hodler, but if it does not than some other one will.  A study of history indicates that it's just a matter of time before this eventuality comes to pass.  In the mean time, as I say, Bitcoin is a toy and has no particular usefulness, though it can bolster one's spending money.  I actually don't have any desire to see the 'right' circumstance in my days.  The degree to which life would suck, even for me personally, would drastically outweigh the nicities of being ultra-wealthy, but ultimately I have little choice of influence in the matter.  In such a scenario we hodlers should expect EVERYTHING to be thrown a us.  We have almost no advantages compared to our adversaries.  The worst thing we could do would be to piss away what few advantages we do have in hopes for beating the stock market or some other lame and inconsequential objective.

You (Cypher) and I see very little to agree on because we look at the world differently.  You can take solace in the fact that your type vastly outnumbers mine.


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March 10, 2015, 04:13:02 AM
 #21800

Dow futures starting to drop a bit.  i'd look the hell out tomorrow.
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