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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804455 times)
Erdogan
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March 09, 2015, 12:56:36 AM
 #21781

There seems to be consensus among some people that Gavin's scaling proposition would make the bitcoin network a lot less secure.

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/574582759508873216


Same with Mircea Popescu (who declared war to Gavin if his solution happens) and some other folks.

So the author doesn't think Bitcoin can solve the mining / tx fee issue without the price jumping, tx's increasing or hashing power rocketing. Fair enough, it's an ongoing debate in a live, global, experiment.

I dont know why critiques are always being so binary; it cant take over all retail, cant do this right now, will never adapt to that.... I don't think it ever was intended to take out all retail. I think it will exist as an option for those so inclined, much because that is what it is in all areas - an alternative. Birthed from the ashes of a financial meltdown and the biggest economic experiment in history (QE), it's whether people see the merit in it or not (and their ability to see it or not is a whole other discussion).

It is also a point that now it can take a share of retail, a share of microtransactions, while these functions might have to be delegated to service companies in the future. It does not matter, it is important that these functions can expand bitcoin in the moment. The expansion can not be balanced, it will go into the areas where bitcoin can make a difference in the moment, then later, it will go into other areas.
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cypherdoc
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March 09, 2015, 03:33:31 AM
 #21782

movin' up
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March 09, 2015, 03:42:35 AM
 #21783

down, down, down:

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March 09, 2015, 03:43:29 AM
 #21784

Both heading DOWNTOWN. 400's baby, bring it. 300's next.
Don't get too excited. $400 is in the cards, yes. But 300...? I don't think.

Big rises have yet to backfill. In order for the $1000+ high to fill, it would have to drop below $300, possibly as low as ~$160 before the trend reverses.

Of course growth rates may be enough to keep that from happening. If the ~$400-430 range holds through the supposed China deadline and the big investments start drawing in new usage, we could easily be headed back to the moon.

In short, April is going to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin (and gold, silver, bonds, nearly everything else). I think if a collapse doesn't happen here, we'll know whether Bitcoin will truly thrive by late 3rd to 4th quarter this year.

Nice call by miscreanity on your thread cypher.

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My sig space is not for sale.
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March 09, 2015, 03:51:49 AM
 #21785

Both heading DOWNTOWN. 400's baby, bring it. 300's next.
Don't get too excited. $400 is in the cards, yes. But 300...? I don't think.

Big rises have yet to backfill. In order for the $1000+ high to fill, it would have to drop below $300, possibly as low as ~$160 before the trend reverses.

Of course growth rates may be enough to keep that from happening. If the ~$400-430 range holds through the supposed China deadline and the big investments start drawing in new usage, we could easily be headed back to the moon.

In short, April is going to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin (and gold, silver, bonds, nearly everything else). I think if a collapse doesn't happen here, we'll know whether Bitcoin will truly thrive by late 3rd to 4th quarter this year.

Nice call by miscreanity on your thread cypher.

i do miss him.
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March 09, 2015, 05:28:26 AM
 #21786

Both heading DOWNTOWN. 400's baby, bring it. 300's next.
Don't get too excited. $400 is in the cards, yes. But 300...? I don't think.

Big rises have yet to backfill. In order for the $1000+ high to fill, it would have to drop below $300, possibly as low as ~$160 before the trend reverses.

Of course growth rates may be enough to keep that from happening. If the ~$400-430 range holds through the supposed China deadline and the big investments start drawing in new usage, we could easily be headed back to the moon.

In short, April is going to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin (and gold, silver, bonds, nearly everything else). I think if a collapse doesn't happen here, we'll know whether Bitcoin will truly thrive by late 3rd to 4th quarter this year.

Nice call by miscreanity on your thread cypher.

i do miss him.


Those early debates between you two in the original thread were great.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
marcus_of_augustus
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March 09, 2015, 06:17:48 AM
 #21787

There seems to be consensus among some people that Gavin's scaling proposition would make the bitcoin network a lot less secure.

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/574582759508873216


Same with Mircea Popescu (who declared war to Gavin if his solution happens) and some other folks.

So the author doesn't think Bitcoin can solve the mining / tx fee issue without the price jumping, tx's increasing or hashing power rocketing. Fair enough, it's an ongoing debate in a live, global, experiment.

I dont know why critiques are always being so binary; it cant take over all retail, cant do this right now, will never adapt to that.... I don't think it ever was intended to take out all retail. I think it will exist as an option for those so inclined, much because that is what it is in all areas - an alternative. Birthed from the ashes of a financial meltdown and the biggest economic experiment in history (QE), it's whether people see the merit in it or not (and their ability to see it or not is a whole other discussion).

It is also a point that now it can take a share of retail, a share of microtransactions, while these functions might have to be delegated to service companies in the future. It does not matter, it is important that these functions can expand bitcoin in the moment. The expansion can not be balanced, it will go into the areas where bitcoin can make a difference in the moment, then later, it will go into other areas.


Sidechains  and payment channels can take a lot of the heavy lifting off the bitcoin network and let it do what it is good at, monetary settlement using distributed consensus with a timestamp server.

There is no need to rush out a half-baked scaling solution experiment that risks decentralisation, i.e. the distributed census security at bitcoin's core. Raising max_block_size to 2, 4 or 8 MByte should be ample, and not risk security, until the off-chain solutions are in the wild.

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March 09, 2015, 06:56:34 AM
 #21788


Big rises have yet to backfill. In order for the $1000+ high to fill, it would have to drop below $300, possibly as low as ~$160 before the trend reverses.

Of course growth rates may be enough to keep that from happening. If the ~$400-430 range holds through the supposed China deadline and the big investments start drawing in new usage, we could easily be headed back to the moon.

In short, April is going to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin (and gold, silver, bonds, nearly everything else). I think if a collapse doesn't happen here, we'll know whether Bitcoin will truly thrive by late 3rd to 4th quarter this year.

Nice call by miscreanity on your thread cypher.

i do miss him.

You've still got me.  The guy who mentioned probably somewhere Q3 that it looked like there would be no selling opportunity in 2014 but hopefully 2015 will bring one.  It was in association with one of your numerous 2-da-moon exclamations which follows each blip up in price IIRC.  Hopefully that moderated some people's aspirations and helped them do better mid-term planning.


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March 09, 2015, 11:37:35 AM
 #21789


You've still got me.  


Yes, afterthoughts often linger.

Yep, the guy who screams at every blip in gold and whose emotions/FUD swing with every Bitcoin dip.

Sad really how desperate for recognition one can be.
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March 09, 2015, 02:51:43 PM
 #21790

people were gabbling on the wall observer that the recent price runup to 290 was a pump to make more money off the auction.  This "analysis" seemed ill considered to me because government functionaries aren't going to be getting a bonus based on the auction price and therefore have no incentive (unlike wall st) to pull these tricks.  It seems more likely to me that the pull back right before the bidding opened was the artificial move... or even more likely it was a natural pullback that was amplified.  An entity who engineered an artificial pullback would use this knowledge to keep its bid high while others might bid at current market.  Obviously if this is true it is bullish... entirely speculation, but I'm interested in your thoughts...
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March 09, 2015, 03:12:15 PM
 #21791

people were gabbling on the wall observer that the recent price runup to 290 was a pump to make more money off the auction.  This "analysis" seemed ill considered to me because government functionaries aren't going to be getting a bonus based on the auction price and therefore have no incentive (unlike wall st) to pull these tricks.  It seems more likely to me that the pull back right before the bidding opened was the artificial move... or even more likely it was a natural pullback that was amplified.  An entity who engineered an artificial pullback would use this knowledge to keep its bid high while others might bid at current market.  Obviously if this is true it is bullish... entirely speculation, but I'm interested in your thoughts...

from many years of trading, i would recommend ignoring news events in general, especially ones that have long lead times like the auction.  certainly, natural disasters and "zero day" natural disasters will have effects if large enough.  otherwise, following the technicals is the wisest approach as it's almost impossible to factor/price in all the myriad news events over short time periods even when it seems obvious.  also, large swaths of ppl are just contrarians and love to invest based on doing something unexpected or going against the grain.  thus, what's makes sense to you, may not make sense in terms of market responses to news events and explains why so many seemingly intelligent ppl get confused and emotionally distraught when prices move opposite to what they've reasoned.

now, having said that i believe more in technicals than fundamentals, it IS important to understand the fundamentals of the market you're investing in, especially with Bitcoin.  assclown emotionally weak minded individuals, like tvbcof, have emotions that swing like the lilies which follow the price.  which is precisely why all his FUD bottomed precisely @155 and have now gone quiet as we've rebounded.  unbeknownst to even him, since that bottom he'll now sneak in a positive comment every once in a while in an attempt to be able to say "he called the bottom" way out in the future.  if you understand Bitcoin, like i believe you do, then you will view huge pullbacks like the last >1 yr as a buying opportunity and ignore guys like tvbcof.  this pullback has been a dream to fulfill one's greed when it comes to Bitcoin accumulation.  this means understanding the economics, cryptography, mathematics, and game theory behind Bitcoin.  this knowledge helps keep things in perspective that helps shield against your emotions due to the volatility.
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March 09, 2015, 03:25:52 PM
 #21792

people were gabbling on the wall observer that the recent price runup to 290 was a pump to make more money off the auction.  This "analysis" seemed ill considered to me because government functionaries aren't going to be getting a bonus based on the auction price and therefore have no incentive (unlike wall st) to pull these tricks.  It seems more likely to me that the pull back right before the bidding opened was the artificial move... or even more likely it was a natural pullback that was amplified.  An entity who engineered an artificial pullback would use this knowledge to keep its bid high while others might bid at current market.  Obviously if this is true it is bullish... entirely speculation, but I'm interested in your thoughts...

from many years of trading, i would recommend ignoring news events in general, especially ones that have long lead times like the auction.  certainly, natural disasters and "zero day" natural disasters will have effects if large enough.  otherwise, following the technicals is the wisest approach as it's almost impossible to factor/price in all the myriad news events over short time periods even when it seems obvious.  also, large swaths of ppl are just contrarians and love to invest based on doing something unexpected or going against the grain.  thus, what's makes sense to you, may not make sense in terms of market responses to news events and explains why so many seemingly intelligent ppl get confused and emotionally distraught when prices move opposite to what they've reasoned.

now, having said that i believe more in technicals than fundamentals, it IS important to understand the fundamentals of the market you're investing in, especially with Bitcoin.  assclown emotionally weak minded individuals, like tvbcof, have emotions that swing like the lilies which follow the price.  which is precisely why all his FUD bottomed precisely @155 and have now gone quiet as we've rebounded.  unbeknownst to even him, since that bottom he'll now sneak in a positive comment every once in a while in an attempt to be able to say "he called the bottom" way out in the future.  if you understand Bitcoin, like i believe you do, then you will view huge pullbacks like the last >1 yr as a buying opportunity and ignore guys like tvbcof.  this pullback has been a dream to fulfill one's greed when it comes to Bitcoin accumulation.  this means understanding the economics, cryptography, mathematics, and game theory behind Bitcoin.  this knowledge helps keep things in perspective that helps shield against your emotions due to the volatility.

Oh, this short term analysis is just a fascination/hobby for me; I bought on each 00 all the way down.
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March 09, 2015, 03:41:05 PM
 #21793

people were gabbling on the wall observer that the recent price runup to 290 was a pump to make more money off the auction.  This "analysis" seemed ill considered to me because government functionaries aren't going to be getting a bonus based on the auction price and therefore have no incentive (unlike wall st) to pull these tricks.  It seems more likely to me that the pull back right before the bidding opened was the artificial move... or even more likely it was a natural pullback that was amplified.  An entity who engineered an artificial pullback would use this knowledge to keep its bid high while others might bid at current market.  Obviously if this is true it is bullish... entirely speculation, but I'm interested in your thoughts...

from many years of trading, i would recommend ignoring news events in general, especially ones that have long lead times like the auction.  certainly, natural disasters and "zero day" natural disasters will have effects if large enough.  otherwise, following the technicals is the wisest approach as it's almost impossible to factor/price in all the myriad news events over short time periods even when it seems obvious.  also, large swaths of ppl are just contrarians and love to invest based on doing something unexpected or going against the grain.  thus, what's makes sense to you, may not make sense in terms of market responses to news events and explains why so many seemingly intelligent ppl get confused and emotionally distraught when prices move opposite to what they've reasoned.

now, having said that i believe more in technicals than fundamentals, it IS important to understand the fundamentals of the market you're investing in, especially with Bitcoin.  assclown emotionally weak minded individuals, like tvbcof, have emotions that swing like the lilies which follow the price.  which is precisely why all his FUD bottomed precisely @155 and have now gone quiet as we've rebounded.  unbeknownst to even him, since that bottom he'll now sneak in a positive comment every once in a while in an attempt to be able to say "he called the bottom" way out in the future.  if you understand Bitcoin, like i believe you do, then you will view huge pullbacks like the last >1 yr as a buying opportunity and ignore guys like tvbcof.  this pullback has been a dream to fulfill one's greed when it comes to Bitcoin accumulation.  this means understanding the economics, cryptography, mathematics, and game theory behind Bitcoin.  this knowledge helps keep things in perspective that helps shield against your emotions due to the volatility.

Oh, this short term analysis is just a fascination/hobby for me; I bought on each 00 all the way down.


the beautiful thing about Bitcoin is its transparency.  you really can get a good idea about what's happened in the past and what's likely to happen in the future based on its open source nature. this is unique in the financial world.  the "consensus" approach to change helps alot in this regard as anyone can participate and learn even at the level of the individual.  as much as Redditors like to bash Bitcointalk as being full of trolls (they never mention Reddit is filled with them just as much if not more), it still is the bastion of ongoing knowledge of what's happening in Bitcoin.  the thread model establishes continuity and evolution of thought.  it also helps establish credibility in the participants.  which is why this thread is so popular and long lasting as it is blessed with many, many thoughtful participants who come and go, each of whom contribute valuable ideas and perspective.  we all learn from each other.  consistent sources of information can be difficult to find in a complex topic such as Bitcoin. 

this is why we all keep this thread running.  not to mention that Gold and Sound Money is key, imo.
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March 09, 2015, 03:57:20 PM
 #21794

oh my:

leading indicator SLW:



Junior Miner misery continues:



Majors, no better:



Word of the Day (last few years really):  DEFLATION
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March 09, 2015, 04:05:06 PM
 #21795

Long term perspective:

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March 09, 2015, 04:22:08 PM
 #21796

interesting article by Dan Moorehead.  i believe i already articulated that i thought this Bitcoin bottom looks alot like the NASDAQ bottom of 2002.  i also have already articulated that i think we can take this analogy one step further; that a Bitcoin bottom could coincide with an S&P/Dow top 2015:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/valleyvoices/2015/03/09/is-the-sp-500-bitcoins-crystal-ball/2/
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March 09, 2015, 04:27:05 PM
 #21797

people were gabbling on the wall observer that the recent price runup to 290 was a pump to make more money off the auction.  This "analysis" seemed ill considered to me because government functionaries aren't going to be getting a bonus based on the auction price and therefore have no incentive (unlike wall st) to pull these tricks.  It seems more likely to me that the pull back right before the bidding opened was the artificial move... or even more likely it was a natural pullback that was amplified.  An entity who engineered an artificial pullback would use this knowledge to keep its bid high while others might bid at current market.  Obviously if this is true it is bullish... entirely speculation, but I'm interested in your thoughts...

from many years of trading, i would recommend ignoring news events in general, especially ones that have long lead times like the auction.  certainly, natural disasters and "zero day" natural disasters will have effects if large enough.  otherwise, following the technicals is the wisest approach as it's almost impossible to factor/price in all the myriad news events over short time periods even when it seems obvious.  also, large swaths of ppl are just contrarians and love to invest based on doing something unexpected or going against the grain.  thus, what's makes sense to you, may not make sense in terms of market responses to news events and explains why so many seemingly intelligent ppl get confused and emotionally distraught when prices move opposite to what they've reasoned.

now, having said that i believe more in technicals than fundamentals, it IS important to understand the fundamentals of the market you're investing in, especially with Bitcoin.  assclown emotionally weak minded individuals, like tvbcof, have emotions that swing like the lilies which follow the price.  which is precisely why all his FUD bottomed precisely @155 and have now gone quiet as we've rebounded.  unbeknownst to even him, since that bottom he'll now sneak in a positive comment every once in a while in an attempt to be able to say "he called the bottom" way out in the future.  if you understand Bitcoin, like i believe you do, then you will view huge pullbacks like the last >1 yr as a buying opportunity and ignore guys like tvbcof.  this pullback has been a dream to fulfill one's greed when it comes to Bitcoin accumulation.  this means understanding the economics, cryptography, mathematics, and game theory behind Bitcoin.  this knowledge helps keep things in perspective that helps shield against your emotions due to the volatility.

Oh, this short term analysis is just a fascination/hobby for me; I bought on each 00 all the way down.


the beautiful thing about Bitcoin is its transparency.  you really can get a good idea about what's happened in the past and what's likely to happen in the future based on its open source nature. this is unique in the financial world.  the "consensus" approach to change helps alot in this regard as anyone can participate and learn even at the level of the individual.  as much as Redditors like to bash Bitcointalk as being full of trolls (they never mention Reddit is filled with them just as much if not more), it still is the bastion of ongoing knowledge of what's happening in Bitcoin.  the thread model establishes continuity and evolution of thought.  it also helps establish credibility in the participants.  which is why this thread is so popular and long lasting as it is blessed with many, many thoughtful participants who come and go, each of whom contribute valuable ideas and perspective.  we all learn from each other.  consistent sources of information can be difficult to find in a complex topic such as Bitcoin. 

this is why we all keep this thread running.  not to mention that Gold and Sound Money is key, imo.

This is one of my favorite threads (never understood how reddit could be so popular for something like this and almost never visit reddit) and, while a few trolls will post in this epic thread, some of the smartest (IMO) post here too. 
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March 09, 2015, 05:35:03 PM
 #21798

look the hell out:

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March 09, 2015, 05:44:56 PM
 #21799


You've still got me.  


Yes, afterthoughts often linger.

Yep, the guy who screams at every blip in gold and whose emotions/FUD swing with every Bitcoin dip.

Sad really how desperate for recognition one can be.

About the only time I even check the gold price over the last year is when you make one of your numerous 'gold collapsing' exclamations.  Sometimes I check Kitco and find that you seem to have made up the decline out of whole cloth, and a fraction of those I might bother to respond to.  Probably my history of pretty good calls, not all supporting your campaign of wishing Bitcoin up, have colored your perceptions and memories.


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March 09, 2015, 06:04:46 PM
 #21800

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/03/09/scaling-bitcoin-to-its-first-billion-users-and-beyond-2/
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