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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807385 times)
cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 03:34:37 AM
 #21821

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.

i don't think it's funny at all.  it's expected after such a prolonged, deep pullback.

if anything, it's a warning notice to anything dollar related including stock and bonds.  i'm beginning to think we'll have one more push up for the dollar followed by a potential collapse.  UST's would be bought as a result as i don't believe in the next crisis that both can go up as they did in 2008.  we'll see.
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sidhujag
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March 10, 2015, 03:37:16 AM
 #21822

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.

i don't think it's funny at all.  it's expected after such a prolonged, deep pullback.

if anything, it's a warning notice to anything dollar related including stock and bonds.  i'm beginning to think we'll have one more push up for the dollar followed by a potential collapse.  UST's would be bought as a result as i don't believe in the next crisis that both can go up as they did in 2008.  we'll see.
It will prob stay up for awhile.. Maybe year or longer and bubble up like bitcoin did at the end... Maybe 130ish
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March 10, 2015, 03:41:15 AM
 #21823

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.


Bitcoin shouldn't have an obvious correlation to the dollar; at least not for a while (despite what guys like Citi's Englander repeatedly say (based on statistically insignificant data, I might add)). Right now, bitcoin is many things, including a theoretical inflation hedge commodity, cash, and a tech growth stock, trading in a very thin market. Good luck finding a tidy correlation to the dollar, gold, the S&P, oil, or anything else.

In any event, from a portfolio diversification standpoint, having no strong correlation to any other major asset class is a nice property.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 03:41:41 AM
 #21824

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.

i don't think it's funny at all.  it's expected after such a prolonged, deep pullback.

if anything, it's a warning notice to anything dollar related including stock and bonds.  i'm beginning to think we'll have one more push up for the dollar followed by a potential collapse.  UST's would be bought as a result as i don't believe in the next crisis that both can go up as they did in 2008.  we'll see.
It will prob stay up for awhile.. Maybe year or longer and bubble up like bitcoin did at the end... Maybe 130ish

that's certainly the conventional wisdom and has been mine up til now since last summer.  however, i don't like the straight up, relentless rise along with the large pullback in UST's.  one of them is going to fail in the next crisis; my bet is that when push comes to shove, UST's will be bought with freshly debased dollars to keep interest rates down and bond prices elevated.  in these days where debt equals money, it's the path of least resistance. 

all this means Bitcoin will soar.
Melbustus
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March 10, 2015, 03:43:44 AM
 #21825

...one of them is going to fail in the next crisis; my bet is that when push comes to shove, UST's will be bought with freshly debased dollars to keep interest rates down and bond prices elevated.  in these days where debt equals money, it's the path of least resistance.  
...


Agreed. The 21st century motto of all major central banks: "Buy all the bonds!"

Edit: And I do mean *all* the bonds in some cases... What % of new issuance is BoJ buying these days? >75%, right?

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
sidhujag
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March 10, 2015, 03:57:06 AM
 #21826

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.

nice ramp in the dollar going on right now.  something's up.
Probably going after 100.. Funny that bitcoin is rising at same time.. Correlation shifting or just great trading opportunity.

i don't think it's funny at all.  it's expected after such a prolonged, deep pullback.

if anything, it's a warning notice to anything dollar related including stock and bonds.  i'm beginning to think we'll have one more push up for the dollar followed by a potential collapse.  UST's would be bought as a result as i don't believe in the next crisis that both can go up as they did in 2008.  we'll see.
It will prob stay up for awhile.. Maybe year or longer and bubble up like bitcoin did at the end... Maybe 130ish

that's certainly the conventional wisdom and has been mine up til now since last summer.  however, i don't like the straight up, relentless rise along with the large pullback in UST's.  one of them is going to fail in the next crisis; my bet is that when push comes to shove, UST's will be bought with freshly debased dollars to keep interest rates down and bond prices elevated.  in these days where debt equals money, it's the path of least resistance.  

all this means Bitcoin will soar.
Usd had a longer prolonged range period at the bottom near 80 where ive been saying for years to buy.. It has had more of a spring reload than bitcoin.. Think bitcoin here for another year and half to be the same... So in effect i think its just getting started.. Prob is bitcoin is not considered valid money yet by the big boys so usd is still ideal money and best option mext to other currencies.. Gold and silver are too manipulated by few market makers...

Once next qe happens at a peak then confidence may shift to bitcoin if its stable or rising since then
cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 04:08:25 AM
 #21827

a series of these 33% ramps in interest rates can't be tolerated for long.  the whole debt edifice would collapse.  UST's need to be bought hard so something will have to be sacrificed.  stocks are at a long term peak; good candidate #1.  USD straight up ramp since the summer; good candidate #2.  and it has to happen sooner than you think:

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March 10, 2015, 04:12:23 AM
 #21828

...

this is tvbcof on the day of the last plunge down to 155.  nice memorial.
Why are you mentioning short term price action with regards to what he said (he didn't even mention current price)?
Some of them are good points IMHO.

I hope you don't believe that price pumping short term (or even medium-long term for that matter) means that not even some of his arguments are valid or something...

you can stop hoping right there.  i think his concerns are invalid.
In that case you don't think it's more appropriate to provide arguments against his views instead of mentioning price at the time of his post which has little relevance at all?

i have 4 yrs worth of arguments against his positions littered throughout this thread.  just because you, as a newbie troll, can't be bothered to go back and read up on those arguments doesn't mean i haven't provided them.

let's be clear; tvbcof and i disagree on everything.  if he says black, i say white.  that's just a fact.  i'd put him on ignore if he weren't so amusing.

Damn Cyph...thanks for doing a great job of editing my post (snipped for brevity.)  I'm especially proud of that post and I would not change a word, and you've highlighted the critical parts nicely.

The dominant crypto-currency (currently Bitcoin) is, as I've been saying since 2011, worth easily 5 figures and probably 6 in the right circumstance.  Maybe even more.  That circumstance is a failure of the mainstream currency system.  I do hope it's Bitcoin which ends up in this position because I'm a hodler, but if it does not than some other one will.  A study of history indicates that it's just a matter of time before this eventuality comes to pass.  In the mean time, as I say, Bitcoin is a toy and has no particular usefulness, though it can bolster one's spending money.  I actually don't have any desire to see the 'right' circumstance in my days.  The degree to which life would suck, even for me personally, would drastically outweigh the nicities of being ultra-wealthy, but ultimately I have little choice of influence in the matter.  In such a scenario we hodlers should expect EVERYTHING to be thrown a us.  We have almost no advantages compared to our adversaries.  The worst thing we could do would be to piss away what few advantages we do have in hopes for beating the stock market or some other lame and inconsequential objective.

You (Cypher) and I see very little to agree on because we look at the world differently.  You can take solace in the fact that your type vastly outnumbers mine.


cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 04:13:02 AM
 #21829

Dow futures starting to drop a bit.  i'd look the hell out tomorrow.
sidhujag
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March 10, 2015, 04:18:42 AM
 #21830

Dow futures starting to drop a bit.  i'd look the hell out tomorrow.
I remember on may 3 iput in a $5g all in put call for end of week seeing the w pattern and turn over of stock market before the flash crash.. My colleague chickened out minutes before closing bell who i respected.. Needless to say i lost all respect for his trading decisions after that day pussying out since we decided to go in together or get out together,. That was a $200g+ missed call lol
cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 04:27:52 AM
 #21831

Dow futures starting to drop a bit.  i'd look the hell out tomorrow.
I remember on may 3 iput in a $5g all in put call for end of week seeing the w pattern and turn over of stock market before the flash crash.. My colleague chickened out minutes before closing bell who i respected.. Needless to say i lost all respect for his trading decisions after that day pussying out since we decided to go in together or get out together,. That was a $200g+ missed call lol

i still think that gold and silver's peak in 2011 signaled the end of a long inflationary phase in the US economy.  yes, the stock and bond markets have continued to grind higher since then due to QE but with oil/commodities and emerging economies/ROW following gold downwards since then, i seriously doubt the US economy can function as an island unto itself.  we are globalized now and trouble overseas will trickle down to us as the avg American has suffered income stagnation and massive income inequality.

the ppl of the world are primed for an apolitical new form of money and that is Bitcoin, not gold.
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March 10, 2015, 06:13:45 AM
 #21832

Dow futures starting to drop a bit.  i'd look the hell out tomorrow.
I remember on may 3 iput in a $5g all in put call for end of week seeing the w pattern and turn over of stock market before the flash crash.. My colleague chickened out minutes before closing bell who i respected.. Needless to say i lost all respect for his trading decisions after that day pussying out since we decided to go in together or get out together,. That was a $200g+ missed call lol

i still think that gold and silver's peak in 2011 signaled the end of a long inflationary phase in the US economy.  yes, the stock and bond markets have continued to grind higher since then due to QE but with oil/commodities and emerging economies/ROW following gold downwards since then, i seriously doubt the US economy can function as an island unto itself.  we are globalized now and trouble overseas will trickle down to us as the avg American has suffered income stagnation and massive income inequality.

the ppl of the world are primed for an apolitical new form of money and that is Bitcoin, not gold.
Ideal money cant take hold abruptly.. The shock cant be supported.. It needs to be gradual.. Ppl see usd with inflation targeting as adequate now until its not.. Bitcoin is a longterm play for that usecase i believe.

If rates go up about 5x current rates then we may see avg joe go bankrupt who was barely making payments.. Right now therr is cash to be paid simply buying homes and renting them for cashflow.. The descrepency is pretty big.
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March 10, 2015, 12:12:40 PM
 #21833


Europe caps credit card fees to 0.3% and debit cards at 0.2%

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31812810

How much of this saving will actually be passed on to customers, remains to be seen??

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March 10, 2015, 12:43:43 PM
 #21834

Visa, Master Card, Amex et alia becoming less profitable, which reduces their options to improve and innovate. Meanwhile, a payment system that requires no such intermediaries slowly gathers strength.

Wake up, smell coffee.
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March 10, 2015, 03:16:54 PM
 #21835

Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP.
cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 03:46:45 PM
 #21836

Dow getting smacked
cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 03:48:32 PM
 #21837

large non conf in play:

cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 04:00:39 PM
 #21838

Dow -265
cypherdoc
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March 10, 2015, 04:17:04 PM
 #21839

Junior miners telegraphing incoming new lows.  Again.  but hey, keep following tvbcof and traderCJ:

Melbustus
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March 10, 2015, 04:33:45 PM
 #21840

21e6 announcing they've raised $116M (!): http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/03/10/secretive-bitcoin-startup-21-reveals-record-funds-hints-at-mass-consumer-play/

*still* not saying exactly what they're up to...

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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