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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1953968 times)
cypherdoc
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March 17, 2015, 01:40:18 AM
 #22021

why the hell do we ever invite Chris Larson to Bitcoin conferences?:

http://coinfire.io/2015/03/16/ripple-ceo-says-bitcoin-as-currency-unneeded-to-california-assembly/
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cypherdoc
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March 17, 2015, 04:07:17 AM
 #22022

http://altoz.liberty.me/2015/03/17/why-ripple-is-the-enemy/
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March 17, 2015, 04:45:24 AM
 #22023

so will Lawsky and the BitLicense shut out Rakuten?
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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March 17, 2015, 07:25:00 AM
 #22024

Lightning payment channels just ended all FUD.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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March 17, 2015, 07:29:15 AM
 #22025

Lightning payment channels just ended all FUD.

yup ... and some.

Payment channels technology are (another) game changer ... (multi-hop off-chain transaction routing, now that is the TCP/IP of money)

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March 17, 2015, 07:49:43 AM
 #22026

People *still* don't understand the problem that blockchains actually solve.

Yes, I keep coming across that a lot.  It seems to me that a lot of people without the technical understanding just believe that "blockchain = something with 'bit' in its name or claiming some kind of decentralisation".  As if absolutely every kind of decentralisation needed a blockchain.  For instance, newbies with Bitmessage (P2P encrypted messaging) often keep talking about the "blockchain", even though there is nothing even coming close to a blockchain involved in Bitmessage.

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Wekkel
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March 17, 2015, 07:55:17 AM
 #22027

Good grief that was long winded. Can we get a tldr concise version for the viewers or those that couldn't bare it? I read most of it and scanned the rest but most of the pricing charts were just lol boring and just plain Roll Eyes.

The article itself has a 'conclusion'. The author first sets up a theoretical framework for valuation and then applies it to Bitcoin. My interpretation is that reasonable price expectations  until 2014 are between $10k and $300k, assuming the network continuous to grow exponentially.

Like this post? you can tip me (BTC) 18j7UBNfhWWfvwGwrtzWfUrp1v6RDerFkY or (XEM) NBXGH5-MXQPNL-T5TA3R-QCQYUX-3FIEXC-LGIKGT-H7XJ
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March 17, 2015, 08:09:08 AM
 #22028

The article itself has a 'conclusion'. The author first sets up a theoretical framework for valuation and then applies it to Bitcoin. My interpretation is that reasonable price expectations  until 2014 are between $10k and $300k, assuming the network continuous to grow exponentially.

between $10k and $300k by 2024 maybe?

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March 17, 2015, 11:57:06 AM
 #22029

Good grief that was long winded. Can we get a tldr concise version for the viewers or those that couldn't bare it? I read most of it and scanned the rest but most of the pricing charts were just lol boring and just plain Roll Eyes.

The article itself has a 'conclusion'. The author first sets up a theoretical framework for valuation and then applies it to Bitcoin. My interpretation is that reasonable price expectations  until 2014 are between $10k and $300k, assuming the network continuous to grow exponentially.

I skimmed over it, but I believe his fatal flaw that leads to the ridiculously high estimates is assuming the price at any point in time does not already price in expected future growth.

If you liked this post -> 1KRYhandiYsjecZw7mtdLnoeuKUYoGRkH4
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March 17, 2015, 12:18:39 PM
 #22030

I meant 2024 indeed. The author sees no practical value in the  non-log calculations and made some rough assumptions on the future value enclosed in Bitcoin's present value. Just read it entirely, it is pretty well thought out.

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HarmonLi
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March 17, 2015, 12:21:32 PM
 #22031

I meant 2024 indeed. The author sees no practical value in the  non-log calculations and made some rough assumptions on the future value enclosed in Bitcoin's present value. Just read it entirely, it is pretty well thought out.

Bitcoin is effectively a currency or asset born to use a log scale, after all. I haven't seen many real world examples that follow an exponential growth as well as Bitcoin does Cheesy

cypherdoc
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March 17, 2015, 01:19:30 PM
 #22032

Yowser!

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
Backatchya2
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March 17, 2015, 01:40:53 PM
 #22033

Yowser!

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
O RLY?



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CATZtaIWMAAQZpU.png


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CATZ1PeWgAAz36h.png







I chose to show an all time chart because you don't want me to post the 2014 chart comparing the two, trust me.
markj113
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March 17, 2015, 02:50:55 PM
 #22034

Spike in gold price due to $1.2 billion bid, someone has been splashing the cash -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/gold-spikes-sudden-12-billion-bid

Maybe the Irish finance minister -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-16/irish-finance-minister-dumps-stocks-buys-gold


Goldinger
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March 17, 2015, 05:28:22 PM
 #22035

Yowser!

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
O RLY?



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CATZtaIWMAAQZpU.png


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CATZ1PeWgAAz36h.png







I chose to show an all time chart because you don't want me to post the 2014 chart comparing the two, trust me.
Yeah can't say "gold collapsing bitcoin up"...
cypherdoc
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March 17, 2015, 06:10:34 PM
 #22036

Yowser!

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
O RLY?














I chose to show an all time chart because you don't want me to post the 2014 chart comparing the two, trust me.
Yeah can't say "gold collapsing bitcoin up"...

i absolutely can.  there's been several goldbugs like you who have held me to a higher standard of using the original posting date of this thread or its precursor as a start point to measure the success or failure of this call.  and this was when the outcome wasn't so clear.  that is a reasonable request, unlike the cherry picking timeframes you are doing.  when done in this manner, Bitcoin has killed gold in terms of relative performance.
lunarboy
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March 17, 2015, 06:22:29 PM
 #22037

Funniest story in the press at the moment  Grin

US pissed at the Brits for joining the Chinese-led Asian development bank.

now Australia France and Germany Also join in on the joke.

That Dollar is starting to smell a little Whiffy   Wink

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31921011
Bagatell
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March 17, 2015, 06:29:56 PM
 #22038

Funniest story in the press at the moment  Grin

US pissed at the Brits for joining the Chinese-led Asian development bank.

now Australia France and Germany Also join in on the joke.

That Dollar is starting to smell a little Whiffy   Wink

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31921011

Rats and a sinking ship.
tyrexs
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March 17, 2015, 06:37:55 PM
 #22039

gold stable in this week, maybe can up and bitcoin ready to drop i guess

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March 17, 2015, 08:00:09 PM
 #22040

when you say "just sit back with their cold storage coins and see which fork wins out", you're essentially saying the forks are close in properties (or at least difficult to choose between).

No I'm kind of saying the opposite. If they are not close in properties then one will quickly win out, and I think we all agree that is not a problem at all. It isn't a problem for passive participants, nor active ones.

The minority of cases where the choice is more difficult, you basically have two choices. One is to pick one or the other (including status quo) essentially by fiat, or recognize that these decisions are difficult and let a market sort it out. I argue it is more important to do that now, when Bitcoin is tiny, rather than suffer long term from having made the wrong choice earlier when the costs of change were relatively insignificant.

I don't think we disagree that stability is important, I just think that stability at the multi-trillion dollar cap scale is better served by letting things sort out robustly and dynamically at the billion dollar scale, even if that introduces more risk short term (indeed that risk is what allows it to happen).

Take this whole block size thing. It's pretty clear no consensus will ever be reached. Doing nothing is an arbitrary decision. Making a change to 20 MB or 20 MB + {some growth rate} is also arbitrary. We're not going to "figure this out." I say let the market play out with the toy system we have today and whichever system thrives will be far stronger at the trillion dollar scale.
...

I have a different opinion on this.  I think we can and will "figure this out", once a commitment is made to doing just that.  This is my fundamental disagreement with Gavin's proposal.  It not only makes no attempt to figure it out, it takes away the impetus to do so for 20 years, when we have had Bitcoin for only a third of that time.  This is what makes it such a jaw-droppingly misguided proposal unworthy of someone in his position.

Instead we are expected to undertake new risks without even the promise of the improvements needed to resolve the issue in either a long term manner (using a measured rate based on block-size need) or a permanent manner (removal of the limit based on it no longer being necessary). 

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