[XMR] Monero Speculation

[e-coinomist]

You know Bosch painted horrific landscapes filled with sin and judgement where people and creatures indulged in gambling, carnal acts and eventually were devoured by odd creatures or each other.

Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.

More a fan of Henry Darger, personally. Something less crazy than Altcoins.

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[cAPSLOCK]

I never actually said my interpretation /

I think he meant the altcoin universe is full of various bastard creations devouring one another.  It's sort of an apocylypse combined with survival of the fittest all wrapped up in arcane expressions, fantasy and mystery.

I've always found Bosch strangely compelling.

[jehst]

That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.

The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.

There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.

What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY

Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg11003261#msg11003261

You know Bosch painted horrific landscapes filled with sin and judgement where people and creatures indulged in gambling, carnal acts and eventually were devoured by odd creatures or each other.

Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.

The merging and acquisition of coins and cryptoassets is going to be commonplace. Already, the current Bitshares version is the merger of several different dev groups and projects. Now they are all under one banner.

For my own speculative purposes, I've filled pages of notebooks on what sorts of mergers, acquisitions, and reorganizations are likely to occur as the crypto ecosystem matures.

[generalizethis]

That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.

The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.

There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.

What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY

Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg11003261#msg11003261

I've always thought of most of cryptoland in terms of the show put on by the Duke and King in Huckleberry Finn--people gets scammed for a sloppily put together show. But instead of riding the con-men out on a rail, they invite their friends and family to see it, so they don't feel alone in the duping. Though, thankfully, they eventually get exposed--ahem Evan, Josh....

[rpietila]

Due to soem bot experiments, I have been reading the tea leaves quite intensively the last days.

Today, is the breakout day. Poloniex 2W/4H shows the channel with a flat lower bound at 281k, above which there is now considerable number of bids, >1 lazy day volume.

Everyone in the hot money section is waiting for the price to fall through 281k, because they have sold and want to get back. The new money is waiting for the liquidity; they cannot enter now due to the almost complete absence of ask side.

My understanding is (explained already well before the rise to the current range) that the speculative position in XMR is at about 0 when we are at the lower bound of the trading channel (290) and at maximum at the higher bound (450). As long as the trading in the channel continues, these traders on average lose money in the churn. The new entrants also "lose money" because they buy higher than the LTVWA, due to their liquidity needs and inexperience in trading (this becomes their entry point, so they don't feel like losing money, yet someone can gain on their expense - win/win! ). The winners are seasoned oldies who are not prone to panic, rather just shove in more money every time it drops, "because in the end it conquers the world" and the nimble daytraders.

Because of the zero speculative position, there is no one but the miners to push the price down and they should also be quite empty. Check the chart - if I or you or anyone had hot money in Monero, for sure that would have been liquidated many days ago!

The direction is UP. In much higher probability than 52/48, which already qualifies for huge raises in Poker.

[MalMen]

The direction is UP. In much higher probability than 52/48, which already qualifies for huge raises in Poker.

Dont forget the 1year aniversary next week, i am expecting some moves related to that

[TrueCryptonaire]

The direction is UP. In much higher probability than 52/48, which already qualifies for huge raises in Poker.

Dont forget the 1year aniversary next week, i am expecting some moves related to that

Why are you waiting for that? Is it some kind of a reason for the price to rise? 

[GingerAle]

BuyMonero.net promotion

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1017131.msg11041638#msg11041638

Buy 1 get 2 free!

[BitmoreCoin]

The direction is UP. In much higher probability than 52/48, which already qualifies for huge raises in Poker.

Dont forget the 1year aniversary next week, i am expecting some moves related to that

Why are you waiting for that? Is it some kind of a reason for the price to rise? 

I think there should be no reason to pump just because it is anniversary.

[binaryFate]

The direction is UP. In much higher probability than 52/48, which already qualifies for huge raises in Poker.

Dont forget the 1year aniversary next week, i am expecting some moves related to that

Why are you waiting for that? Is it some kind of a reason for the price to rise? 

I think there should be no reason to pump just because it is anniversary.

No reason to pump indeed. Nevertheless psychologicaly it's a milestone, in a cryptoworld where +99% of projects would have died before reaching that age, especially with the long price decline we witnessed.

[jehst]

I'm planning on buying some more monero, but I need to get out of a bitcoin long position first. I'm probably looking at making a substantial purchase closer to monero's birthday.

Bitcoin in 2015 has been the biggest disappointment since my ex-wife.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I'm planning on buying some more monero, but I need to get out of a bitcoin long position first. I'm probably looking at making a substantial purchase closer to monero's birthday.

Bitcoin in 2015 has been the biggest disappointment since my ex-wife.

Perhaps the "Congratulations Monero" buys will give a little pump for the coin.


No wonder.
Bitcoin doesn't offer anything worth of value.
It is a mere payment token - just like Amazon gift card. Nothing more.

[pinky]

I'm planning on buying some more monero, but I need to get out of a bitcoin long position first. I'm probably looking at making a substantial purchase closer to monero's birthday.

Bitcoin in 2015 has been the biggest disappointment since my ex-wife.

Perhaps the "Congratulations Monero" buys will give a little pump for the coin.


No wonder.
Bitcoin doesn't offer anything worth of value.
It is a mere payment token - just like Amazon gift card. Nothing more.

 

[smooth]

Who knows how long this will last but for now....



and on the filtered (no premined/tokens/etc.) list:

[dnaleor]

Who knows how long this will last but for now....



and on the filtered (no premined/tokens/etc.) list:

sweet 
Did we ever hit the top 10? I can't remember it.

[binaryFate]

I remember #8 at one point. Could be wrong.

[3x2]

IMO to reach top 5 wouldn't take much time.

[nakaone]

I normally do not like the bitcoin bashing which became so common in this thread but this is probably interesting:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/323zha/new_jersey_wants_to_tax_bitcoin_transactions/

being untraceable is serious business for a currency

[binaryFate]

being untraceable is serious business for a currency

I'd add that being fongible enough is necessary for a currency.

[cAPSLOCK]

I think XMR will be #2 on that filter non mineable and premined list in 2 years. That filter should also filter Dash. So actually XMR is #4 currently.

Yes... why on earth does that filter NOT include dash?