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1341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2024, 04:53:15 PM
If the SEC can't even use two factor authentication on X, how can they possibly be in charge of these important financial decisions?

Folks 65 and up are often considered unemployable due to lack of skills and mental/physical deterioration.  They often even have thier driver's license suspended.  

Meanwhile these are the folks running our government...

that's what tptb want you to think...

what is tptb mean?

googled it

"the powers that be"
1342  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Mempool fees and Solutions on: January 10, 2024, 04:52:05 PM
I agree with what you are saying, I know that Bitcoin originally was meant to be a payment system. But, what about those who do not think in the same manner within the community? They believe that Bitcoin is an asset and has a store value, and I do agree with them.
I don't see a contradiction here. Money by definition is a store of value and Bitcoin has the potential to become Money. If some people see Bitcoin as a store of value today, that is not contradicting what Bitcoin was meant to be.

Quote
They do say to counter any question on the high transaction fee as it is just a phase and it will fade away in some time. They said the same thing last time when Ordinals came into existence.
There is a difference between traditional spam attacks and this latest one called Ordinals.

In traditional spam attacks like the one we endured during 2017 the fee market eventually puts an stop to the attack as it keeps increasing the cost of the attack and the attacker has to cover that cost out of their own pockets.
Also in traditional attacks, the attacker can not get regular people to participate in their attacks.

However, in case of Ordinals this is not a traditional spam attack. It is a spam attack where attackers are going to have the possibility of making a profit if they participate in the attack! You see Ordinals is arbitrary data and is NOT a token, however they've made a fake market selling basically the transaction calling them "tokens" and they pump these things in their scam market.
This means unlike traditional spam attacks, the attackers could successfully get regular people to participate in that attack because the scam market gives them an incentive. That "incentive" also means this attack is not going to be a temporary phase that fades away.

If you are or are not a btc max guy. you need to get into the LN network. Use the LN network.


Kraken allows use of its LN network.

do KYC put in a small amount of cash. Buy some BTC and use their LN network .


Nicehash allows it.

I have Two LN wallets to access . sends are cheap.

I am well aware of  “not you keys not your coins”

So if you have 50,000 usd in btc  keep 48,000 or even 49,000 in a secure wallet. 💳

and a small amount 1,000 or 2,000 in LN exchanges for small spending.
1343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2024, 04:36:32 PM
How come no one wants to rent ChartBuddy's signature?

funny.

he has a lead on me.


For now I am giving my signature to talkimg.com at no charge as his website is helpful.


quite ironic as I am supporting talkimg.com which is allowing buddy to have the lead in posts.

1344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2024, 03:16:02 PM
🚨 BREAKING 🚨

BLOOMBERG ETF ANALYSTS ARE
PREDICTING THAT 11 BITCOIN SPOT
ETFS WILL BE APPROVED AROUND
4-6PM TODAY.

BULLISH 🔥



Hal Finney was a software engineer, futurist, cypherpunk, and one of the few people who supported #bitcoin from the very beginning.

And 15 years ago, sent the first #bitcoin tweet!

https://twitter.com/Ashcryptoreal/status/1745097756870389800
https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1745098049951514982

🚨 BREAKING 🚨 BLOOMBERG news and bitcointalk user post share on Twitter.

hmm should be fun to see. meanwhile I need to rally back and take the lead from buddy.
1345  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: January 10, 2024, 03:12:44 PM
~~

But, apparently, they don't "turn off" the machines for the full 14 days. The feeling we have is that there is a shutdown of machines in the first few days, after the cycle change, until the network becomes clogged and fees rise. In other words, for 4 or 5 days, they have fewer machines to mine. And then regression with all its strength. And the closer to the renewal of the difficulty, the more power they place.

Therefore, during the last cycle, it was noted that in almost the entire period the predicted variation was 0%, but in the final stretch it rose 1%. Right after the difficulty adjustment, everything slowed down, with -10% expected in the next adjustment. It remains to be seen, the sequence of this cycle, to see if it will really go down.

Latest Block:   825070  (30 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   91.8181%  (527 / 573.96 expected, 46.96 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 67270021584854 and 70379123537470
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.0981% and -3.8505%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 12:36 AM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 2:12 PM  (in 10d 13h 56m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 21, 2024 at 6:32 AM  (in 11d 6h 16m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 13h 36m 27s and 15d 5h 56m 27s



the pattern has been - for 400-500 blocks =  the underclock
slowly rising back to 0 than plus = the overclock


most of 2023 has this pattern

and so far most of 2024 has this pattern.


when the ½ ing comes the penalty for a 500 block under clock drops from 6.25 reward to 3.125 reward

it becomes a 50% discount and as fuzzy mentions instead of ordinals video games 🎮 will be used and on and on and on.

people need to learn and use ln

1346  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2024, 03:03:09 PM


Please they did it on purpose. At least I sold a small piece at 47.5k
1347  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: January 09, 2024, 10:03:08 PM
see below.  so if you want to argue that foundry is testing my raise the fee concept this evidence certainly is in favor of what I said.
 But not conclusive at all.   much like old paternity test. If one guy is type a+ and the other guy is type B-


But foundry found 38 blocks in the last 24 hours, which corresponds to 27% of blocks found, not much lower from their 7-days average of 27.8%, I am not saying they are not doing what you are suggesting because we don't know if the last 7-day representation is even accurate, but don't you think that if they were going to do something like that -- it would be better while BTC price is down? right now BTC sits at roughly 47k which is a very interesting number to most miners and many of them would sell at this price to stack cash for the rainy days, what you suggest would be better down when the price falls, not while going up IMO.

The evidence shows that the last year has had really high fees and we all know this year is the 1/2 ing dial this in for 2023 was okay.
1348  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: January 09, 2024, 02:11:27 PM

Excellent tip! I'm thinking of doing an analysis with this data. Thanks.

Then I share it here.

here is another chart

1349  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: January 09, 2024, 01:48:15 PM
Where can you see how many blocks each pool mines daily?
And also the hash power of each pool?

the hash power is not really available. it is only an estimate made on blocks made daily.

so if you look at foundry and they make 48 blocks in a day  for days on end the estimate is 48/144 = 33% of the worlds hashrate.

IF THE  world  makes 2016 blocks in exactly 14 days at a difficulty of 72th see below  you can calculate the estimated hashrate

Quote
https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   825001  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   89.5444%  (458 / 511.48 expected, 53.48 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1

                           
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 65611530447772 and 69940710246342
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.3639% and -4.4495%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 11:24 AM  (in 11d 2h 33m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 21, 2024 at 10:50 AM  (in 12d 1h 59m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 48m 4s and 15d 15h 13m 57s


blocks are here


https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks

1350  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2024, 04:51:00 AM
Has anyone watch "the brothers sun" it is on Netflix?

I watched 6 episodes so far.
By now you would be done with the series and agree with me it was worth its time. Personally a lover of humor, family and crime and this combined it all. If you haven't tried the series try it out.
There's potential for season 2 not been canceled.

Barely watched any series last year at part from Ted Lasso. Hopefully already correcting that.

Its Jan 9th, the date Bitcoin core was launched.
Happy Birthday to Bitcoin core, The software that made the first transaction of Bitcoin possible.

I will finish it tomorrow. I like it just enough funny to work with the violence.  Btw Ted Lasso was as close to perfection for all series that I have watched since the 1960s when I was a kid. Elementary was very very good and so was Northern Exposure.

When blockbuster was around I binge watched the sopranos  as I did not have cable back in the day.

Took about 7-10 days not very good to watch that way.
1351  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2024, 04:05:01 AM
 Buddy is about a day behind me.

If I do the right amount of posts I can let him catch me on ETF day.
1352  Economy / Speculation / Re: BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect on: January 09, 2024, 02:34:41 AM
The SEC's deadline to decide is 10th of Jan (for multiple ETFs).

I don't think the approval itself would cause any major jump in the price, it's largely already priced in at this point as everyone is already aware of what's coming. If anything, the demand (not just the fact they got approved) could have a fairly big impact on the price, but we're talking longer-term here. It's not like a bunch of wales is sitting on the sidelines and waiting for SEC. There are plenty of other ways investors could get exposure to BTC.

Short-term speaking, we could see some modest rise after the hopefully positive announcement and then we could see a drop as a lot of investors will be "selling the news".

It is easy to say it's priced in.  But who really knows if it is.

If some do know it would be cool for them to let me know
1353  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mempool and Spam Transactions LOL on: January 09, 2024, 02:28:00 AM
Quote
the real finger pointing should be the pools that accept the spam and the core devs that caused the exploit but dont fix the exploits that allow the spam/fee bumping

Wouldn't that just cause the next block to always have the same rate fee, if the mining pool managers ignore inscriptions? Since those spam ordinals don't get confirmed, it will always remain in mempools next block with the same rate fee.

If you look in mempool, there is about 6,000 ordinals (filter by Inscriptions) between 30-35 sat/vb. Its like a buy wall of ordinals that keeps getting passed to the next block, because the mining pools are not accepting them to their block when found. This is tricking rate fees to always be 35sats or more, because of this wall of ordinals no one will confirmed on the block sitting between 30-35sat/vb. If they don't confirmed them, rate fee will always be more than 35sat/vb.

Sorry, I can't figure out how to post a image in a comment.

Wall of ordinals that keeps getting passed to the next block, when the current block is mined.

Block 824932


Block 824936


Block 824937




trying to fix it. not sure why 2 of 3 images posted not all 3
1354  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2024, 02:22:06 AM
Has anyone watch "the brothers sun" it is on Netflix?

I watched 6 episodes so far.
1355  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: New Crypto Tax Law In US 10k+ Transactions Must Report to IRS in 15 Days on: January 09, 2024, 01:47:16 AM
the biggest issue for me is how to report hitting a solo block.  I would need to report the receipt of it from the pool running it. Say ck solopool. or worse if I self mine a solo block I would have zero idea how to report it.

I can certainly justify my decisions to take my pool payments at lower than 5k.

As 2  pools lost my funds with 1 never repaying the coins.

So letting the pools hold beyond 10 k is not a normal thing to do.

But if my mine earns more than 10k in a day I would need to report that.
1356  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: IRS Criminal Investigation Unit Is Taking on More Crypto Tax Cases on: January 09, 2024, 01:40:51 AM

The mine will earn enough in JAN 2024 that I will need to do two or three sends to avoid the rule.

if there are four 4️⃣ of us and I earn 30k in a month I will need to pull the coins out when they get to 9k

i wouldn't do that because they'll think you're trying to launder money:


https://www.idenfy.com/blog/structuring-in-money-laundering/


What is Structuring?
Structuring in money laundering is when criminals make transactions intentionally splitting larger amounts into a series of smaller sums to avoid scrutiny from law enforcement or compliance obligations. In other words, criminals strategically structure deposits just under the threshold to prevent unwanted attention.

In these cases, the individual or entity typically conducts smaller transactions without requiring the financial institution to file a report with a government agency. For instance, in the United States, a report must be submitted for all cash transactions exceeding $10,000 processed by a financial institution.




Quote
this is 3 or 4 times a month.

I will need to send the coins right away so they do not go to 10k.

more fees for sure.

Is Structuring a Crime?
Even if the person obtained the funds for structuring legally, structuring is still illegal and is considered a criminal offense.


That would be a good way to turn a legitimate business into a illegitimate one it seems like  Shocked




Mining is not illegal and I can simply show that other pools such as mmpool and nicehash collapsed and did not pay and or held my coins for years. Thus I simply take the coins out more quickly perfectly legal.  At no point last year did I ever let coins stay to 10 k and then pull them out so I am not changing my behavior as I result of the new law.

The highest amount I allowed to stay in my biggest pool at any time in the last year was under 5k.

I also have been doing kyc and paying my tax for years.

My biggest issue would be if I choose to solo mine and hit a block as that would be receiving more than 10k and I am not sure how to report it.
1357  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Antminer S9 SE Troubleshooting on: January 09, 2024, 01:06:27 AM
To be able to enable the fan control follow the guide by mikeywith posted from the link below once you enable it try to run it at 85% or higher and let see any changes on the hashboard temp and it should help to cool down a bit your unit.

If he gets temp errors then setting static fan won't help him, the miner would push the fan to it's limit or closet to it before sending any warning, and thus mean, his miner has already tried what you are suggesting but it still failed to operate at reasonable temp, what he should do instead if

1- provide better airflow.
or
2- underclock the miner.

it has been a while since I worked with an S9 SE, but if he follows my guide that you linked to unlock the hidden settings, it's possible to find clock and voltage settings which he can play with.

I would simply detach the center board from the 3 power jacks. Mine ran well for years like that.
1358  Economy / Speculation / Re: back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak. on: January 09, 2024, 12:41:54 AM
2015 Sept up 2.82%
2015 Oct.  up 31.92%
2015 Nov  up  21.44%
2015 Dec  up  13.75%

here we are 8 years later

2023 Sept 3.95%
2023 Oct 28.51%
2023 Nov ?
2023 Dec ?


I looked at the post below to come up with my 2015 to 2023 comparison.

will we repeat this?

It's funny to see that October is the most successful month for Bitcoin. This has probably already become firmly anchored in people's minds, so that all market participants act accordingly. A self-fulfilling prophecy in that sense.
Yes, this October was no exception and bitcoin didn't just rise, it broke resistance that couldn't be broken all of 2023. But I doubt about the psychology that it happened naturally, September was also green, although it was almost always red.
Naturally or not, initially it was the effect of Cointelegraph giving invalid news about ETF acceptance that FOMO occurred and many bought Bitcoin at this time so that it broke the $30k resistance, then indeed dumped after the news was not true.
But the next effect is like a snowball that makes market conditions better and until now it is able to hold at $34k + +.

October was a green month and we are about to enter November which in the last 2 years has always shown a drastic decline.
Will the trend change?
we will see.





If we do the 2015 pattern from sept to dec we will rock 2 more months.

35000 x 1.21 = 42350 by dec 1
42350 x 1.1375 = 48173 by jan 1.

opinons and guesses?

So we got to 42.3k a few days late. around dec 4

do we go to 48.1k 8 or 9 days late. we did top 47.1k today.
1359  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2024, 12:32:17 AM


Chopper is getting out of the dark slowly but steadily

well my 47075 ladder up sold

next one is set for 49432

I don't want to judge, but as @jjg says...surely...the values in the ladder don't have to stay fixed and could/should be adjusted from time to time.
That said, it could be a good move (or not), we shall see.

It is a very long and winding ladder up.
1360  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 08, 2024, 11:23:44 PM


Chopper is getting out of the dark slowly but steadily

well my 47075 ladder up sold

next one is set for 49432
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