1/4-1/6
forecast 740-900
sentiment -1
Not much happening. Some new years rallying but still no high volume.
you've been a bear for most of this rally... i'm sure the forum would appreciate some accountability. what went wrong in your models? |
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that thread was some short-term analysis predicting a rise from the low $700s to $800. that was the extent of that model. one can be "bullish" and "bearish" on different time scales, of course, which seems to be the misunderstanding here. |
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In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?
Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014. my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks. Erm... excuse me but are you really trying to tell us that you can predict that in 3 weeks from now there is going to be a high-volume dumping session? Come on, that's stretching it much too far. No amount of analysis can tell you that in this market.But I suppose 3 weeks does give you quite a long period of time in which to hope for some kind of downtrend (although I have a strong sneaking suspicion the "final capitulation" scenario some buyers are waiting for is never going to happen). you'd be surprised. i would post the models but im afraid i would be giving away far too much information. --arepo hint: the price function is self-similar on all scales like a fractal. zoom out and apply the same methods you do to make short-term calls, and voila! is that really a strange concept? |
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Midterm Downtrend - January will possibly be a rather flat / slightly declining month given historical precedent with patterns very closely repeating themselves and the Chinese New Year introducing a very high level of uncertainty at the end.   full image link here: http://postimg.org/image/ks84th8j3/comparing the general shapes of these two patterns is far more insightful than you probably realize, but your actual analysis and conclusions are definitely too sloppy to be rigorous. --arepo |
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bitcoin never broke the previous ATH and I doubt it will do it now. The previous ones were $0.5 ATH, $1.1 ATH, $32 ATH, $266 ATH, now $1242 - once we are well past that mark, we won't see it again.
this a very good point, piramida, but the paradigm is liable to change at some point -- the problem is we simply do not know when! --arepo |
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Parroting what you just have written doesn't suddenly make it true.
My first ever ignore!  congrats. that's a damn shame. electric would be nearly my last ignore, if i was so inclined. the fact is you're extrapolating things from your own personal opinions and forgetting that not everyone thinks the same way about bitcoin. "just the place for a snark," the bellman cried, as he landed his crew with care --
supporting each man on the top of the tide by a finger entwined in his hair!
"just the place for a snark! i have said it twice! that alone should encourage the crew,"
"just the place for a snark! i have said it thrice! what i tell you three times is true..." |
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I'm pretty sure they said they were going to sell the coins ..... someone can correct me if they didn't
Why? Do you think they need the money right now? Of course they won't sell. Everybody is bullish for Bitcoin this year, including the FBI! Even all the bears on this forum are bullish!  There is no way the FBI will sell any coins for at least 2 years in my opinion, and only then might they pass some to the treasury as a way to control the price. you really need to put down the kool-aid... also, the world tends not to care about "your opinion". there are these things called facts that take precedence  --arepo |
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i was being sarcastic... not quite sure if you were able to tell And I was being serious in spite of your sarcasm. Better luck next time with being sarcastic. b-b-but "trends are awful at predicting bitcoin price" is a demonstrably false statement... i'm even more confused now |
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list of things (partially logically sequential order) that ought to have been implicitly understood from my post but apparently were not:
a) these traders may be content with the profits they have made, and simply have reached their own price point (daytraders, as adam suggests)
b) these traders may not be bullish enough to see $900 as a viable short-term target.
c) these traders are pricing in their bearish sentiment by taking profits now, preferably before other doubtful, impatient traders do the same, which creates a feedback loop which can prevent us from reaching $900 at all.
d) mutual knowledge of (c) and a short-term bearish sentiment causes the price to correct slightly and stabilise slightly underneath $900.
e) most traders think they will not make money by putting up a sell order around $900.
f) feedback loop continues.
I had to understand this from your post? Well, i guess i'm really stupid then. Thanks anyway. i don't mean to be condescending but it seemed silly to ask why everybody didn't park their sell orders at $900. it's almost a tautology to say that it is because many traders apparently did not think that we would see that price in the short-term and decided to take profits while they could. the quoted list is a brief explanation of the kind of feedback loop that describes the game-theoretic competition that drives the actions of most market participants, in all price environments. if you don't understand this then you don't understand a fundamental aspect of price behavior, and it was summed up in the phrase " profit-taking". --arepo |
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Charts and trend speculation only work at markets, where the market controlling minority isn't effectively organized in a common goal of mutual profit. When the market controlling minority consists of a group small enough, that there can be cooperation, then the common goal will be to enlarge profit at the expense of the submissive majority.
In another words, masses are dumb and can be predicted. Small groups are smart and hard to predict. So, I think that trend speculation isn't as useful with the bitcoin market.
 ah yes trends are awful at predicting bitcoin price. oh wait  Yes I think it is awful and it has been awful for quite some time. I don't see people here who are able to do consistently true speculations based on trends. Mostly there are many different kinds of speculations and mostly different people will get the answer right. To me it means that skill isn't a factor in determining the future of the price. And when skill isn't a factor in success, then there is no actual control with trend speculation and it's really gambling with an illusion of control. i was being sarcastic... not quite sure if you were able to tell |
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Why do people dump now? How do they think? "Well the price is going up, lets quickly dump before i make more money by putting up a sell order around 900"?
the people who are dumping now are the ones who bought coins before we took off and are taking profits (out of the pockets of those who bought coins during the rally itself). Great. Now read my post again. list of things (partially logically sequential order) that ought to have been implicitly understood from my post but apparently were not: a) these traders may be content with the profits they have made, and simply have reached their own price point (daytraders, as adam suggests) b) these traders may not be bullish enough to see $900 as a viable short-term target. c) these traders are pricing in their bearish sentiment by taking profits now, preferably before other doubtful, impatient traders do the same, which creates a feedback loop which can prevent us from reaching $900 at all. d) mutual knowledge of (c) and a short-term bearish sentiment causes the price to correct slightly and stabilise slightly underneath $900. e) most traders think they will not make money by putting up a sell order around $900. f) feedback loop continues. |
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Lol at 'speculators' .... you guys don't know shit. The opposite of what you say will happen. Go back to the stock market if u wana analyze charts
at the risk of feeding a troll, the bolded statement is false in at least this one instance. |
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Charts and trend speculation only work at markets, where the market controlling minority isn't effectively organized in a common goal of mutual profit. When the market controlling minority consists of a group small enough, that there can be cooperation, then the common goal will be to enlarge profit at the expense of the submissive majority.
In another words, masses are dumb and can be predicted. Small groups are smart and hard to predict. So, I think that trend speculation isn't as useful with the bitcoin market.
ah yes trends are awful at predicting bitcoin price. oh wait |
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Why do people dump now? How do they think? "Well the price is going up, lets quickly dump before i make more money by putting up a sell order around 900"?
the people who are dumping now are the ones who bought coins before we took off and are taking profits (out of the pockets of those who bought coins during the rally itself). |
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This analysis makes more sense than most of the "pro" ones. Good to see some common sense for a change.
perhaps, but it leads to no strong conclusions, just a general sense of what one person believes about market sentiment at the moment. how would one trade using this analysis? what strategies does it suggest are successful? how likely is it that these strategies will actually be successful? can the OP answer any of these questions? --arepo He doens't claim to be a pro but there is some advice in there. He advises to HODL since the market is in an upward trend. He says that Hellork is more optimistic and thus his positive trend is not only his view. Still poor analysis but HODL has been a sound strategy. i'm not saying it's poor analysis i just pointed out that there are no strong conclusions, so it may have little "value". it does advance a decent argument based on a number of interesting assumptions, many of which are in contention, and is an excellent OP for general discussion. i was simply commenting on its classification as "analysis". |
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What say you?
this is a little hilarious because the more people who think that we will, the less likely it is to occur, as well as vice versa! the market moves to minimize your profits! --arepo edit: thus, based on the poll results thus far as a contrarian indicator, we will most definitely see one. |
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small correction coming on the short-term... if the newb traders who pushed us above the trendline are panicky enough it could turn into another capitulation event.
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it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.
Sure. I understand the premise. I guess we will see. If that wedge breaks upward or sideways then up, then what do your charts say? Wave 5 is it? it won't. i'm not even using EW, im using the damped oscillator model, and it is increasingly apparent that we are not yet through the aftershocks of the December crash. this is a correction to the downtrend, which will not be complete until one more large capitulation event. then we may start a new trend. Ok. We if by large capitulation you mean back to 600 or something I might agree. Otherwise, I look forward to revisiting this post. please do. and no price targets -- that's a secret but a bottoming out with large volume, with a rapid recovery. a cusp. oh, hello future forumites! --arepo |
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This analysis makes more sense than most of the "pro" ones. Good to see some common sense for a change.
perhaps, but it leads to no strong conclusions, just a general sense of what one person believes about market sentiment at the moment. how would one trade using this analysis? what strategies does it suggest are successful? how likely is it that these strategies will actually be successful? can the OP answer any of these questions? --arepo |
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This overnight move has legs. We are in a major resistance zone though price action hasn't indicated it's respecting that yet. We are also running into upper channel lines so we may have some consolidation in this area before moving higher  i find the method which you use to draw channel bounds both arbitrary and weak in terms of model robustness... |
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