|
Are you planning to increase costs/payments later? 75sat for an interstitial is vvvvvvvvery low, considering how obtrusive they are.
|
|
|
|
Can you please tl;dr this for me then? Something I'm not catching on to I guess. If the risked amount is a % of the bankroll (as per Dooglus), that % remains the same. So let's say there's 100 BTC in the BR, and 99.84% can be lost (99.84). Player loses 100 BTC chasing it. Now there's 200 BTC there, but he can chase after 199.68 of it (meaning his 100 + 99.68/99.84 of what he was chasing), and this could go on forever.
So for argument sake, lets use a gambler with infinite money. The site starts with a 100 BTC bankroll, this means using Dooglus' payouts the gambler would have to bet 1524 BTC to aim at winning the 99.97% of the bankroll. As the gambler loses money, to the house, the more and more he needs to bet. By the time the gambler wins the 99.97% of the bankroll, he will have probably grown the bankroll so much that the remaining 0.03% is far bigger than the initial bankroll. So even with infinite money, the gambler is still -EV and the casino still have +expected bankroll growth Ahh, I see now. He had said that Plinkopot didn't allow higher multipliers but MP does, which led me to believe that the bet needed would be much, much smaller than that. This makes sense. So essentially, a median needs to be reached between BR risk and allowing that thrilling chance (likely through a capped "if max. win > x% BR, decline, even if it meets Kelly" setup), so as to protect investors and still allow risk-takers to get their fix. And we can essentially classify the bet in question as being a rare event, but still something that's concerning solely because of its impact. |
|
|
|
FWIW, even if you don't understand the maths you should at least understand the high level purpose of the kelly criterion. This is almost the exact opposite of reality, and what we just spent hours proving on your behalf.
Can you please tl;dr this for me then? Something I'm not catching on to I guess. If the risked amount is a % of the bankroll (as per Dooglus), that % remains the same. So let's say there's 100 BTC in the BR, and 99.84% can be lost (99.84). Player loses 100 BTC chasing it. Now there's 200 BTC there, but he can chase after 199.68 of it (meaning his 100 + 99.68/99.84 of what he was chasing), and this could go on forever. A cap would prevent this, is my understanding (based on a few others also breaking it down). But am I misunderstanding something with the above? And I absolutely thank you for your help better understanding this, and Dooglus as well,  . Despite the hiccups, I think it was fairly alerting. (Also, I wasn't trying to be abrasive or devalue your assistance and/or previous/current knowledge on the subject, but rather explain that if people that deal with this a lot weren't completely aware, then to expect someone -- since he calls out me, specifically -- with no math background to know it all is a bit asinine) |
|
|
|
so, i won this kind of plinko for 5 times 999x today, that's not bad.  just like whoever just did, won that 55 btc. Grats on the wins! Looks like you're up quite a bit, . |
|
|
|
if it is your opinion that this bet would allow excessive risks, then it is your responsibility as the owner/operator of MoneyPot to disallow such bets from being placed. As the owner/operator of MoneyPot, it is your responsibility to ensure that your bankroll investors are not exposed to excessive risk.
The problem is he (and probably all the investors) didn't know. It is his responsibility to know. If this was something that he did not fully understand, then he should not have allowed these kinds of bets in the first place. (AFAIK) dooglus, nor RHaver are the ones who own MoneyPot, therefore it is not their responsibility to make sure that bets do not expose MoneyPot bankroll investors to excessive risk I am not speaking on behalf of MP, I'm speaking on behalf of myself. Any official correspondence from MP itself will come from the official account. That said, I personally don't even understand Kelly, how it works, and how to break it down mathematically. It's not my area of expertise and I would never insinuate I know anything about it. I'm also not a developer, nor would I ever claim to be. As such, this entire discussion is completely foreign to me, . Things like Kelly are way over my head. Looks like it's above others', too, with Bitvest's hefty loss today (9.2 BTC loss on a 0.1 BTC bet, with a 160 BTC bankroll). Wondering what their mass loss per roll is. Regardless of if you are speaking on behalf of MP or not, I think it says a lot when it is one of the owner's opinion that a controversially large winning bet that was allowed to be made was risking more then what he thinks should have been risked. Since you were offering bankroll investments, it would be your job to understand how Kelly works. If I had to guess I would say that Stunna did not know how probably fair betting works prior to deciding to open PD, however likely deals with it on a daily basis now. He previously has stated that none of the owners of PD are devs. The same is likely true for other technical aspects of PD. When you are managing the risks of other's money then you should understand these risks before you start offering bankroll investments. This is similar to how am escrow service should know how to keeps funds secure prior to offering his services. I just want to say that... I'm impressed. Even when two of the more mathematically-inclined people on the forums didn't fully understand the repercussions of the Kelly algorithm, you do. From now on, I will be sure to bring any math-based questions I have directly to you, since you're obviously now the most knowledgeable person on the forums. |
|
|
|
if it is your opinion that this bet would allow excessive risks, then it is your responsibility as the owner/operator of MoneyPot to disallow such bets from being placed. As the owner/operator of MoneyPot, it is your responsibility to ensure that your bankroll investors are not exposed to excessive risk.
The problem is he (and probably all the investors) didn't know. It is his responsibility to know. If this was something that he did not fully understand, then he should not have allowed these kinds of bets in the first place. (AFAIK) dooglus, nor RHaver are the ones who own MoneyPot, therefore it is not their responsibility to make sure that bets do not expose MoneyPot bankroll investors to excessive risk I am not speaking on behalf of MP, I'm speaking on behalf of myself. Any official correspondence from MP itself will come from the official account. That said, I personally don't even understand Kelly, how it works, and how to break it down mathematically. It's not my area of expertise and I would never insinuate I know anything about it. I'm also not a developer, nor would I ever claim to be. As such, this entire discussion is completely foreign to me, . Things like Kelly are way over my head. Looks like it's above others', too, with Bitvest's hefty loss today (9.2 BTC loss on a 0.1 BTC bet, with a 160 BTC bankroll). Wondering what their mass loss per roll is. |
|
|
|
Why do people expect the feds to just know what's going on in every corner of the internet?
Because they built a huge mega multi million dollar facility to funnel every bit and byte through the US of A to do exactly that... And where does something like this fall on their list of priorities? Not sure where it falls under their priorities. If I deposit $10,000 cash in my checking account, they want to know right now where I got it! Thing is, there is a class action lawsuit. What I don't understand is how under a class action lawsuit these guys are able to distribute part of the assets to select alt coin holders. Even worse is the other day at the bank someone was cashing a check for $800 and wanted $600 in cash ($200 deposited). Teller had to get the manager, which forced the guy to fill out an IRS form explaining why he wants some of it in cash as opposed to depositing it all to his account (basically, he was told if he won't report to the IRS why he needs cash, they are unable to allow him to take it). Not really sure why all of that is... he could just deposit it all and use the ATM. |
|
|
|
Should they be risking that much of their bankroll in a single bet? It seems like as we've just seen, that leaves MoneyPot and its investors exposed to a whale getting lucky and wiping them out.
According to the Kelly criterion, yes they should be. You need to me risking that much to maximum the expected log of your bankroll. If you only risk 1% of your bankroll on the highest payout, you're risking much less than 1% of your bankroll on the other payouts, and those are the most common. The big payouts are rare enough that apparently it's worth risking more than 1% and relying on the fact that they don't come up very often. if you are saying that "the chance is 1 in 32768 to end up in either or the outside positions" do you mean that for all color bet options?
in case of green it is 3X
in case of orange it is 23X
in case of red it is 121X
Those are the payouts. I'm talking about the chance of them coming up, not the payouts when they do. The payouts are much lower than the odds against them happening because you also get paid when they don't come up. If you could set the payouts to 32768 in the two outsides and 0 everywhere else, that would be a zero house edge game. So if I understand this correctly... tl;dr That is how plinkopot works and this guy just got really lucky? or is their an error with kelly?
The guy hit a 1-in-32k shot on his 27th attempt betting 0.4 BTC on the red line. That's about a 1 in 1200 chance of happening. So he got kind of lucky. It appears that the bet was less than a full Kelly, and that the proportion of the bankroll that Kelly tells us to risk is much higher than our intuition would suggest. Dooglus the math wizard comes through again, :p. To me, risking up to almost 100% of the bankroll is ludicrous. Regardless of the CHANCE of that happening, it's essentially taking the risk that at some point (which, statistically speaking, would happen given enough time) someone completely wipes it. While the house could win 10,000 BTC before that happens, the risk of an all or nothing is still fairly great. From the player's perspective, it's a great deal -- it essentially says that if you lose enough, you can keep your bets in line with the entire bankroll and at some point win back not only ALL your losses so far, but everyone else's losses + all investments that were made. It's definitely a system that needs to be re-evaluated risk-wise. Plinko is an interesting game due to how it works, though. Ideally, what seems the best from a non-mathematically-inclined perspective is to take the maximum win allowed (say 1%, 2%, whatever) and divide it by the highest multipliers to determine the maximum bet allowed. But I'm sure I'm missing something here... |
|
|
|
When I set up the payout table like that myself it tells me the max bet is around 9k bits, so I don't understand why this bet was allowed to go ahead.  That's definitely a huge underestimate. The max bet should be considerably larger. Although, I'm quite surprised it would allow 0.4 BTC bet -- that seems a bit much to me. By any chance, did the owners of MoneyPot.com change the bankroll risk to a 10x kelly? If anyone wants a worked example of figuring out the max bet for a normal kelly the maths is this: http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/662104/kelly-criterion-with-more-than-two-outcomesIf no one else does it, i'll go through it for that bet and see what it should be To answer this, none of the site's code has been touched since the takeover still. No alterations have been made anywhere in the site, nor has it been rebooted or anything. Current dev. is supposed to be getting this done asap (including things like the support emails), afaik. |
|
|
|
HYPER's sister currency Goldpieces is currently beta testing a 3D MMO RPG with full Goldpieces integration: http://www.inkhascape.com/ HYPER integration is also planned in the near future. The game enables people to craft and accumulate in-game assets that can then be traded for GP (and soon HYPER). There is also PvP and many other features. Original quest lines are also being added by the dev. It is currently in TESTING so please come and help us test it before we launch the full featuresMore big news also coming soon as promised! I am very busy behind the scenes coordinating even more projects. More info on the GP 3D MMO RPG: hey guys the game server i'm running for GP is up now. It's in its testing phase currently, announcing so that we can get few people online so we can make sure everything is working alright when we have a number of people logged in. And it will be a good way to start finding some in-game moderators and quest designers. Right now to create an account you just type in a username and password as an existing user and it will be created. This will be done through the website upon official release. The game files: inkhascape.zipunzip these files into a folder such as Inkhascape/ To run the game you will need to have java installed. Then in the command prompt navigate to the Inkhascape/ folder and type "java -jar inkhascape.jar" and it will open the game window.  GP deposits and withdrawals will be handles on the site. In the game the gold is called coins. The coins will be able to be traded on the website as if it was a market. So 1GP may equal 100 coins etc. When you buy the coins or sell the coins on the market on the website it will be instantly reflected in game.  A placeholder website is up at www.inkhascape.com while the website is being developed. Awesome work Inkha! Yes everyone GP now has a fully functional 3D MMO RPG with GP integration! This is a first for any gaming cryptocurrency. Still in alpha phase, but Inkha and I have big plans for it. PR campaign will also commence soon to announce the news in a huge way. Start playing now to start building your in-game assets which will become worth a lot more in future as GP inevitably increases in value. This aint too bad for the first game i have to say. I didn't even know that GP was developing something like this and if HYPER is also added then it will be good for both of the coins. I have been waiting for something like this for a while now, im really interested in seeing how it plays out. This project might not become big but it will be at least a big stepingstone that can be used for a bigger game (but that might need some serious funds first). Agree on all points. This is laying groundwork and once again HYPER will show that steady approach to growth it enjoyed. Nice work! There is more complexity to the game than it first appears. Looks like you can mine ore in the game right now which could then be sold to other players once the economy is going. Looks like there is crafting and all other kinds of resource gathering. I would like to see players be able to buy houses, plots of land, farms and mines etc for GP and HYPER (in-game assets and investments). In-game assets and free market trading in-game with GP and HYPER will make this rock. Once we start marketing this game seriously, the in-game economy has the potential to become huge. So excited right now. In this testing phase Inkha is using GP only, but as soon as I have an ETA on HYPER integration I will let you all know. He has 100% confirmed he will also add HYPER integration. Looks/sounds like RuneScape, so if you want to know about it, research that, . |
|
|
|
 STAGE 3 SPECIAL BONUS
A reminder about a special bonus for everyone who will participate during the Stage 3
of Betcoin.ag Signature Campaign.
Daily Coin Tournament Ticket - worth 50mBTC
You will be able to use your ticket at any time.
The Daily Coin is an exclusive 1 BTC GTD tournament happening every night at 9pm EST.
The buyin is 50 mBTC and stage 3 signature campaign members will receive a free ticket to this event.
I love this bonus! Which reminds me that I still have another of those tickets to burn (won it in a freeroll), . |
|
|
|
Awesome! Can you also add an "All" or "Max" button to investing? As it is, you have to go to main screen -> pick coin -> copy the amount -> invest -> main screen -> pick another game/coin -> copy amount -> invest -> cycle
Why didnt I think about that one yet, thats an awesome suggestion (taken from another investors pov). While I prefer to invest clean amounts and yolo the overdue dust, that button sounds like something nice to add. Will put it on our to-do list. Thanks! And I'm not much of a gambler myself, so every satoshi counts, :p. |
|
|
|
If you want to payout more than one investment you need to close and reopen the 'your account' tab else you are not able to payout more than one investment.
Not a big deal but still annoying...
The same goes for investing. Let's say you want to add DOGE and LTC, you have to do one and then reopen it to do the other. Issue has been fixed. Awesome! Can you also add an "All" or "Max" button to investing? As it is, you have to go to main screen -> pick coin -> copy the amount -> invest -> main screen -> pick another game/coin -> copy amount -> invest -> cycle |
|
|
|
before moneypot always have instant withdraw but now already over 30minutes
Since you mentioned withdrawals now I notice something different with moneypot's withdrawal. It doesnt use the new withdrawals system anymore which ryan changed but it goes back to the first system before it was changed. This way it is more easier to be tracked, wonder why the new team change it back to the old system New MP team has changed nothing at all with the site. Ryan did the original setup/server run and it hasn't been touched since. Not sure what you're referring to by new/old. Maybe dealing with the cold storage? If so, Ryan disabled that before it changed it over. |
|
|
|
I was actually thinking of investing and noticed in the last hour it went from +16 to -36. Someone hit a nice bet for sure.
Yes i think he is so lucky can't find where he won that much, Investor are in total loss now after being in profit for almost year. Investing in a gambling site seems also risky like doing gambling. It has certainly shown me the potential risks involved. I think the issue stems from such a small bankroll currently. Moneypot has been in the negatives multiple times over the past year. Even sites like JD got hit once by a whale (look up the Nakowa situation), which took months to recover from. Welcome to variance. What app was the big win in? I can not seem to find where someone did so well. Plinkopot. Info here: https://www.moneypot.com/users/moneypity |
|
|
|
I was actually thinking of investing and noticed in the last hour it went from +16 to -36. Someone hit a nice bet for sure.
Yes i think he is so lucky can't find where he won that much, Investor are in total loss now after being in profit for almost year. Investing in a gambling site seems also risky like doing gambling. It has certainly shown me the potential risks involved. I think the issue stems from such a small bankroll currently. Moneypot has been in the negatives multiple times over the past year. Even sites like JD got hit once by a whale (look up the Nakowa situation), which took months to recover from. Welcome to variance. |
|
|
|
If you want to payout more than one investment you need to close and reopen the 'your account' tab else you are not able to payout more than one investment.
Not a big deal but still annoying...
The same goes for investing. Let's say you want to add DOGE and LTC, you have to do one and then reopen it to do the other. |
|
|
|
|
It's interesting that Sector's last post, even though he was closing the thread, insinuated that he'll stick around and get things "fixed," but hasn't shown up since. I have no doubt that the seizure was faked. But my hope is that it's all revolving around him finding a way to make people whole again, and this is a way for him to delay while coming up with that.
|
|
|
|
Congrats on the purchase of the site, and welcome to the family! |
|
|
|
Still need to tackle the idea of giving it value. A coin without anything driving value to it will remain worthless. We need something exclusive that makes people want to buy in. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
