Martin Armstrong Discussion

[MA_talk]

His calls for the short-term are mostly "not good", let's just put it that way.

Calling a low in the first quarter 2019, right around the Dec 24th 2018 bottom is simply NOT helpful for ANY traders.  QQQ has risen 10.5% from that bottom in just 2 weeks.  It would have been much more helpful, if he said that a short-term bottom is very near, and buy it and sell the bounce, instead of telling subscribers that the coming low is in Q1.  By that time, few people would go back and check his past claims, but instead look forward again for any "potential" trades that can be made.  And Armstrong will again say market "may" do this, or "may" do that.  If the "may" turns out to be right, he claims it.  If the "may" turns out to be wrong, well, didn't you read the English?  It was "may".  Again, the filtering makes him automatically successful in predictions.

And that's what Armstrong does on a constant basis, "tracking" the market as it goes along.  The problem is always that the only guys that could lose money are the subscribers, and not him ever, since he will always collect the subscription fees.

[MA_talk]

Some people seem to be confused. What I am saying is the Directional Change on the Weekly level implies the low for the 26th and that cannot be a low without a bounce. January is also a Monthly Directional Change. Therefore, we have the distinct potential to just consolidate and hold off any new low until May. To do that would REQUIRE a closing above the Daily Reversals.
Now, the next turning point is the week of 01/21 and notice the Panic Cycle due the week of 01/28. That means, if we rally into the week of 01/21 and we CANNOT achieve a Weekly Closing Above 25005, then we must respect the fact that we could still make a January low the week of 01/28 completing a 3 month reaction from the October high. A 5 month decline would bring us into March. The first Daily Bullish Reversal stand at The Daily Bullish Reversals are 24058 and 24089. followed by 25100. Therefore, we can take out the first two and then bounce off the 25000 zone since that is where the Weekly begins and the third Daily Bullish.
There is no indication that we are in a major bear market. Nor are we ready to breakout to the upside just yet.

bikefront, is that the raw text from Armstrong?

You can ALWAYS be right when you LOOK BACK, because nobody will refer to something that was just wrong.  And based on all the text from Armstrong, can anyone feel extremely certain about Armstrong's FORECAST??  What EXACTLY is he saying?  How about just make it simple?  Is it going to be UP or DOWN in March or in May, versus today's price???  That's all anyone wants to know.

And he canNOT even tell you that or he does not want to tell you that?  So he is a great forecaster, with forecasts that don't tell me in certain words that market will be UP or DOWN, although there are directional changes here and there, etc.  All confusing terms, but non-profitable information.

[MA_talk]

Armstrong can write a thousand pages, but there is only one thing that matters: buy low and sell high, to make a profit.

If there is no looking-forward tradable information that is consistently profitable, then it is useless.

That's why I only subscribe to services that tell me clearly when to buy and when to sell.  You can spit out several terabytes of text from AI computer, but it won't help me a bit, if the trade is not profitable.  98% of the time, when the newsletters don't tell you exactly that, is because they can't make profitable trades either.

[MA_talk]

Imagine that someone like Armstrong is working at Wallstreet, and has designed a super-AI system for stock forecast.  The AI computer spits out a thousand pages and give all kinds of if-then-else scenario.  Then at the end of the days, the boss uses Ask-Socrates service, and ask the AI computer: "So, shall I buy or sell today, and how much?"  And Socrates replied, "well, depends on the timeframe."  Then, the boss replied, "fine, just make me money within 3 months.  I want to buy or sell/short something today, and in 3 months, I want to make money. "  And then the AI computer replied with another thousand if-then-else scenarios, and still cannot answer whether the boss should buy or sell today.

That's what Armstrong is doing.  Just come up with the damn buy/sell call and MAKE SOME ACTUAL TRADES!!  His AI computer is smart as he has claimed, and "should be able" to answer this damn simple question based on all of his claims.

But NO.

You know, if I pay someone to do thousands of page of analysis, I don't want that person to tell me that "Oh, it's up to you, whether you think you should buy or sell today, depending on your timeframe."  I want the damn guy to TELL ME.  What good does it do, if I cannot come to a very clear buy/sell decision after reading thousands of pages of report and indicators.  Just tell me and show me.  ANY computer algorithms at the end of the days, MUST execute buy/sell to attempt to get profits from trading.  Apparently, Socrates is too smart to make it appear to stupid in any possible ways.

[MA_talk]

By the way, and I don't want some answer that the stock market will rise towards 2032, which is 13 years away.

That is just way too far enough, that I know for sure, inflation of 13 years is sufficient to bring up the stock market prices.

The statement has a monetary/trading value of close to zero.

[Alex-11]

Just come up with the damn buy/sell call and MAKE SOME ACTUAL TRADES!!  

The damn buy and sell signal are already there in SOC standard today    See my previous post.  They are available on the monthly level  and even on the weekly level. You still have to know how to trade them and you can't expect high profits in a short period of time.  But they seem to work well, according to MA's Gold charts

[trc4949]

Anyone here going to this?

Martin Armstrong’s computer model predicted the high in the NASDAQ in August, the peak in the S&P 500 in September and forecast the high in the Dow Jones in the first week of October.
 
The model then warned of a panic cycle in late November, which coincided with a critical turning point. The market proceeded to drop 3,000 points plus. The model called for the low on December 26th (a remarkable call) and the subsequent market rally.
 
None of this is a surprise to people familiar with the Armstrong Computer Model. Many remember the model also predicted the Trump Presidential win and the Brexit vote. It correctly predicted the high in Bitcoin in December 2017. In January 2013 at our World Outlook Financial Conference, Martin told us the Russians would invade Ukraine the next month after the Olympics were over.
 
I’ve been following Marty’s model since 1983 and in that time it has accurately predicted so many major events - from the date of the fall of the Berlin Wall to the top of the Nikkei Index in 1989.
 
The Trade Of A Lifetime
 
Given that track record, how can’t we be interested in what Marty calls the coming “Trade of a Lifetime”?
 
Regular attendees of the World Outlook Financial Conference heard Marty’s forecast in 2013 that the Dow Jones was on its way to 18,000. His model forecast that it would break that barrier and move up to 23,700.  The Armstrong model told us the Trump victory would propel the market to the next leg up to over 25,000. From there it predicted the tops I mentioned in August, September and early October.
 
 Now What
 
Are the recent declines the model anticipated the beginning of a new bear market or just a correction in the ongoing major uptrend? The Armstrong Model is now predicting a panic cycle in the last week of January – what does it mean? As Marty says, Panic Cycles are notorious for trapping people on the wrong side of the market, so obviously it’s essential to be on the right side in order to protect yourself and profit from what’s coming.
 
Marty will answer these questions when he joins me on Friday evening, Feb. 1st and Saturday afternoon, Feb 2nd  at the World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver at the Westin Bayshore Conference Centre.  I’ll get the specific numbers he’s watching that would trigger a dramatic change in trend – and necessitate taking direct action.
 
I’ll also ask him about what he calls the “Trade of a Lifetime” and how we can position ourselves to take advantage of, what he says, will be a lifetime opportunity to make money.
 
Marty’s Summation
 
Marty warned 2018 would be the beginning of the Monetary Crisis that would impact every market. Certainly if you had taken his advice in 2012 and converted your Canadian dollars for US greenbacks you’d be way ahead but we are no where near the end of that trend.
 
Volatility is the norm – massive movements like we’ve witnessed this past year in stocks, currencies, bonds, real estate are just the beginning. There’s much more to come – which is why I am so pleased to present someone I consider the foremost economic and financial forecaster in the world.
 
One More Question:  Why Does He Do It?
 
Armstrong Economics is in demand throughout the world. They advise on literally trillions of dollars worth of investments. The Wall Street Journal called him the highest paid financial advisor in the world.  So why does he find the time for us no matter where he is around the globe?
 
Simply put, there are two reasons. First off, we’ve been good friends for over 35 years and he has always been generous with his time and support. And secondly, he has a major commitment to helping individuals, (especially our children who are inheriting this financial mess), navigate through these increasingly volatile and chaotic times.
 
I hope you to take advantage of the opportunity to attend this event. I'll see you there.
 
Sincerely,
 
Mike
 
PS Getting the chance to hear Marty is one of the best reasons to bring a younger person to the conference. It will be an amazing eye opener that he or she won’t get at university or in the mainstream media. That’s why we have a special offer - if you buy a ticket – you can bring a student absolutely free.   The only thing is that we ask you to let us know that you want a student ticket when you purchase your ticket. We have only 23 of these tickets left so please don’t wait.
 
PPS
Date: The World Outlook – Friday, February 1st and Saturday, February 2nd
Place: The Westin Bayshore, Vancouver, B.C.
Tickets: - Go to www.moneytalks.net

Can't Attend in Person? As always we will offer the entire Conference in HD Video. The online streaming archive offers unlimited viewing, on your schedule, uploaded within 48 hours of the events' conclusion.

 

Note: I happen to know that Armstrong does not think we are going into a bear market and still thinks the Dow is going to 40 eventually, therefore the late Jan. panic cycle should be a buying opportunity for the Dow, Sp500 etc.. As for the 'trade of a lifetime', shorting bonds maybe? - Russ

[MA_talk]

Anyone here going to this?

Martin Armstrong’s computer model predicted the high in the NASDAQ in August, the peak in the S&P 500 in September and forecast the high in the Dow Jones in the first week of October.
 
The model then warned of a panic cycle in late November, which coincided with a critical turning point. The market proceeded to drop 3,000 points plus. The model called for the low on December 26th (a remarkable call) and the subsequent market rally.
 
None of this is a surprise to people familiar with the Armstrong Computer Model. Many remember the model also predicted the Trump Presidential win and the Brexit vote. It correctly predicted the high in Bitcoin in December 2017. In January 2013 at our World Outlook Financial Conference, Martin told us the Russians would invade Ukraine the next month after the Olympics were over.
 
I’ve been following Marty’s model since 1983 and in that time it has accurately predicted so many major events - from the date of the fall of the Berlin Wall to the top of the Nikkei Index in 1989.
 
The Trade Of A Lifetime
 
Given that track record, how can’t we be interested in what Marty calls the coming “Trade of a Lifetime”?
 
Regular attendees of the World Outlook Financial Conference heard Marty’s forecast in 2013 that the Dow Jones was on its way to 18,000. His model forecast that it would break that barrier and move up to 23,700.  The Armstrong model told us the Trump victory would propel the market to the next leg up to over 25,000. From there it predicted the tops I mentioned in August, September and early October.
 
 Now What
 
Are the recent declines the model anticipated the beginning of a new bear market or just a correction in the ongoing major uptrend? The Armstrong Model is now predicting a panic cycle in the last week of January – what does it mean? As Marty says, Panic Cycles are notorious for trapping people on the wrong side of the market, so obviously it’s essential to be on the right side in order to protect yourself and profit from what’s coming.
 
Marty will answer these questions when he joins me on Friday evening, Feb. 1st and Saturday afternoon, Feb 2nd  at the World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver at the Westin Bayshore Conference Centre.  I’ll get the specific numbers he’s watching that would trigger a dramatic change in trend – and necessitate taking direct action.
 
I’ll also ask him about what he calls the “Trade of a Lifetime” and how we can position ourselves to take advantage of, what he says, will be a lifetime opportunity to make money.
 
Marty’s Summation
 
Marty warned 2018 would be the beginning of the Monetary Crisis that would impact every market. Certainly if you had taken his advice in 2012 and converted your Canadian dollars for US greenbacks you’d be way ahead but we are no where near the end of that trend.
 
Volatility is the norm – massive movements like we’ve witnessed this past year in stocks, currencies, bonds, real estate are just the beginning. There’s much more to come – which is why I am so pleased to present someone I consider the foremost economic and financial forecaster in the world.
 
One More Question:  Why Does He Do It?
 
Armstrong Economics is in demand throughout the world. They advise on literally trillions of dollars worth of investments. The Wall Street Journal called him the highest paid financial advisor in the world.  So why does he find the time for us no matter where he is around the globe?
 
Simply put, there are two reasons. First off, we’ve been good friends for over 35 years and he has always been generous with his time and support. And secondly, he has a major commitment to helping individuals, (especially our children who are inheriting this financial mess), navigate through these increasingly volatile and chaotic times.
 
I hope you to take advantage of the opportunity to attend this event. I'll see you there.
 
Sincerely,
 
Mike
 
PS Getting the chance to hear Marty is one of the best reasons to bring a younger person to the conference. It will be an amazing eye opener that he or she won’t get at university or in the mainstream media. That’s why we have a special offer - if you buy a ticket – you can bring a student absolutely free.   The only thing is that we ask you to let us know that you want a student ticket when you purchase your ticket. We have only 23 of these tickets left so please don’t wait.
 
PPS
Date: The World Outlook – Friday, February 1st and Saturday, February 2nd
Place: The Westin Bayshore, Vancouver, B.C.
Tickets: - Go to www.moneytalks.net

Can't Attend in Person? As always we will offer the entire Conference in HD Video. The online streaming archive offers unlimited viewing, on your schedule, uploaded within 48 hours of the events' conclusion.

 

Note: I happen to know that Armstrong does not think we are going into a bear market and still thinks the Dow is going to 40 eventually, therefore the late Jan. panic cycle should be a buying opportunity for the Dow, Sp500 etc.. As for the 'trade of a lifetime', shorting bonds maybe? - Russ

It's hard to read without knowing whose voice that was.  There were you, Mike, Russ, Armstrong.  Hard to tell who is saying what.

I have heard the "Trade of a Lifetime" so many times on different things, that I finally figured out that it is simply a sales pitch.

[MA_talk]

Well, then I guess we will simply have to agree to disagree. I just don't see how it is possible to make a call set in stone unless certain conditions are met. Armstrong explained the conditions required for those calls to happen; he's giving the scenarios that can play out. In chess, why play certain moves blindly? Moves can only be made after the opponent moves according to certain criteria.

Armstrong's service was never meant to be a market salesman thing, it reads more like a socioeconomic play unfolding around the market as the centerpiece. This is why he adds mother information but it is all there to make the trade. I don't know if the market will reach a certain point by a certain time, but I do know that if it does, then the market will continue this scenario I envisioned. That is how I trade. Socrates seems to be doing a much more advanced version of this. Armstrong has also posted daily calls. You say that most of the move is gone but he has also posted times when the Reversals are spread far- this is how he called the October crash and even said it was likely that we would correct then, as I posted his September calls.

Sure, we can agree to disagree.  I think the best way to verify Armstrong's claim is to keep a good record of a fixed trading method based on his blog on reversal/etc.  If you rely on human memory, it will only register significant event, while ignoring all other insignificant/non-profitable events.

And the best way to go about this is to have the system spits out real trades.  ALL algorithms MUST make trades at the end of days.  Talk is empty.  An actual trading record from Socrates or based on Socrates would simply settle all these.  And obviously no looking back.  And again, the reason that I think Armstrong is not keeping such trading record is that he knows that such record just won't do any good for his blog service.  It is far better for him to keep saying markets "may" do this, and "may" do that, etc.  And let subscribers' memory to play the last part of magic.

[Thekees]

Same, they are taking there bloody time. I think it was supposed to come out over 2 maybe 3 years ago.

[Thekees]

Looking like Armstrongs call for moving up into the week of the 21st is coming true.

Yeah, it tested the 24089 daily reversal in the overnight market and now again.

[Thekees]

The array and reversals have been doing their job for the currencies though.

The EURUSD crashed after testing the weekly reversal at 1.15600 and the GBPUSD also just penetrated the weekly 1.29280 and has been dropping like a brick since.
One more trade I took was the USDCHF where price dropped way below the monthly and weekly, both around 0.97900 but then closed above it by Friday. I have been checking the crash levels Socrates was giving and the crash support on Thursday and Friday was 0.97370, price penetrated it on thursday and then again by only 20pips on Friday before shooting up. This last one could be a coincidence as Socrates does give a lot of numbers.
I am curious if the next weekly bearish reversal was also around the 0.97370 level.

There is something to the reversals and the arrays, it is just difficult if you don´t have all the information.

[Thekees]

The key day for a target will be Monday 21st. The following week of the 28th remains  as a Panic Cycle. We still see a
closing above 24089 should point to the test of the 25000 area. There will still be the risk of a retest of the lows after the 21st.

Not a lot to interpret here so lets see if he is correct.
Although for the sceptics, 24000 and 25000 are also just big round numbers and often function as support and resistance levels/zones. But his prediction of the Monday high is very specific.

[Gumbi]

The Panic Cycle for the week after the 21st's implies that it is possible to see another high above the 21st's, although not necessarily. In either case, it still looks like we should drop. How is everyone else playing this? I'm thinking monthly put options at least around 100 points out on SPX to be purchased on Monday. Shorter dated ones can be bought but you gotta remember the theta issue. Even so, cheap biweekly options can become much more than a tenbagger.

The high on Monday the 21st should be it since time is up. The panic cycle means it should move in both directions probably a reaction high on Monday the 28th and then down again. The SPX put sounds like a good trade.  

Regarding the skeptics just remember we need someone on the other side to trade against if you think its a good time to buy someone else has to think its a good time to sell. So we don't want everyone following this model. Armstrong cycles/model goes against what the government wants you to believe which is that they are in control and if Martin becomes too popular he may be targeted again by the deep state and then its all over.

[Gumbi]

I understand that but the point is this model can only exist if it remains on the fringe. They deep state tried to kill him in prison, he was in a coma for days and odds are they would of succeeded.  the only reason Armstrong's model goes on is because he has been labeled as a fraud by those in power. That's why nobody wants his posts being reported on the news or anywhere else. The government may turn a blind eye now but if his popularity grows and makes headlines its already the beginning of the end since the implications are that government has no power and is at the mercy of cycles/free market and all there promises mean nothing, the emperor has no clothes.

[Gumbi]

I understand that but the point is this model can only exist if it remains on the fringe. They deep state tried to kill him in prison, he was in a coma for days and odds are they would of succeeded.  the only reason Armstrong's model goes on is because he has been labeled as a fraud by those in power. That's why nobody wants his posts being reported on the news or anywhere else. The government may turn a blind eye now but if his popularity grows and makes headlines its already the beginning of the end since the implications are that government has no power and is at the mercy of cycles/free market and all there promises mean nothing, the emperor has no clothes.

I disagree. Armstrong has specifically addressed this particular issue. That's why he said he let it become public. People have known since ancient times that the government is not able to control things to the end.

The government cant control things period, at most they can reduce the volatility during a boom and a bust. the majority certainty do not believe that the cycles dominate and that the free markets/business cycle will always win, man thinks he is in control but that clearly is not the case.

[footlong24seven]

Bike - I get the private blog posts too, but only the private blog and not Soc. Please don't leave this board - I've been lurking here for months and people like you are why I visit. We need to keep this discussion objective and you do a great job at it. You constantly say Soc's reversals are "helpful" with your other strategies...care to elaborate?

From just reading the Private posts, Marty put up the weekly bullish at 24089, so on Wednesday morning I went balls deep knowing the next reversal wasn't until 25k. I thought, "After all these years of piecing together his cryptic stuff, am I understanding correctly that he's saying we're going to rally almost 900 pts into the 21st?" That was a great call by Marty. I sold my SPY calls this afternoon for a nice 120% gain.

Since he said the high would be Friday close or Tuesday morning latest, I bought SPY puts @ close. Let's see if he's "the oracle" after all.

I'm amazed that he said Friday would close at the high or Tuesday would open at the high but then that would be it. That is REALLY specific from Marty. If the market opened positive and then closed negative on Fri that would have killed his credibility on my part.

I also noticed that his reversals line up, nearly identically, with Fibonacci fan projections and pivots/retracements. Any thoughts, gentlemen?   

[wahyu wida]

I understand that but the point is this model can only exist if it remains on the fringe. They deep state tried to kill him in prison, he was in a coma for days and odds are they would of succeeded.  the only reason Armstrong's model goes on is because he has been labeled as a fraud by those in power. That's why nobody wants his posts being reported on the news or anywhere else. The government may turn a blind eye now but if his popularity grows and makes headlines its already the beginning of the end since the implications are that government has no power and is at the mercy of cycles/free market and all there promises mean nothing, the emperor has no clothes.

I disagree. Armstrong has specifically addressed this particular issue. That's why he said he let it become public. People have known since ancient times that the government is not able to control things to the end.

I think the government is the most powerful person in managing a country, and I think they are controlling everything for the welfare of the people. but indeed their policies are sometimes incompatible with minorities, and as if they were authoritarian

[footlong24seven]

Sometimes the Reversals line up with my numbers, sometimes not. Enough lines will eventually give alignment I guess. I find it very interesting when he said that the 21st is a point that is cropping up in other markets. It could be a major event. "Yes, you are correct. We could peak on the close on Friday or first thing Tuesday morning. However, the 21st is showing up in markets globally that will be open. So whatever this is, it appears to be a confidence issue and interestingly Prime Minister May must put forth a new BREXIT proposal by the 21st."

I've followed Armstrong for some time and pieced it together eventually- some of these calls give me goosebumps. I made around 200% on his call for the low with short term options but sold early. I remember seeing the arrays for the first time in January 2018. Understood nothing except the bottom volatility portion that spiked for February. We all know how that went.

I'm starting to piece it together, too, and despite the naysayers in this blog there is a method to the madness, goosebumps and all once you have that moment of clarity. For me this trade just FELT right. Exuberance when the market was supposed to drop, and now everyone expects follow-through next week. But like Marty said, we're out of time. Somehow it feels like that's right (BLOOD MOON /s).

Also note I remember reading on the pvt blog somewhere that the Euro would retest 113.1 and then the Euro's decline and the Dow's advance would "flip" going into next week, again lining up with the 21st. Euro action on Fri did almost exactly that. HOW?? 

[psp777]

Well, that was quite the ride from Dec 26 to Jan 18. The US markets are closed on Monday so I went to cash on Friday at the close. Thats about 15% gains for me on a larger portfolio. Maybe I should quit for the year haha nice gains already.

Armstrong stating directional change next week and panic cycle the week after with a possible target on the week of Feb 11.

Main message from him this week Time first, price second. Armstrong has been more clear lately I am finding on the private blog. Amazing calls for the highs of 2018 and the Dec low.

Still looking forward to his 2019 market report.