Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[ridnovir]

WAITING seems like a safe bet for now, although a bit painful because it puts more folks with less sense in front of me in the sipping order... sigh

[1715385828]

1715385828

[1715385828]

1715385828

[1715385828]

1715385828

[1715385828]

1715385828

[1715385828]

1715385828

[1715385828]

1715385828

[jspielberg]

I am still on the fence about placing an order for Jupiter. Lack of any updated and specs and possibility of delay and loosing out play against me droping 7K on it especially if shipment will be late October.

Hashfast at least has specs on the site, costs 1k less for same 400G/h power, is based in US and states the delivery date in October 20-30

Your thoughts on Jupiter v Baby Jet ?  

Technically I think they say:

Shipments begin:  October 20-30, in order of purchase

Which to the cynics in the crowd misleading at best.  What they said isn't the same thing as "delivery date in October 20-30"... just that they are going to begin in that window.  As I learned from BFL-speak... beginning shipments is a good step, but completing shipments is a much more interesting milestone.

Right now I see Bitfury being the least risky/most expensive.  KnC moderate in both risk and price, and HashFast being the most risky.
That being said... I liked that I didn't have to deal with any international anything (and I am fine with paying in BTC, though Bitpay is low compared to Gox rates) so I ordered one.

I fully expect them to be a little late as they haven't even taped out yet.  But if they are more than a couple weeks late, with the current hashrate growth rate... HashFast won't ROI (and frankly neither will anything else at the current pricing).

[OmegaNemesis28]

So KnC has been relatively quiet lately?

I really wish more of these ASIC people were transparent. 

[Bitcoinorama]

So KnC has been relatively quiet lately?

I really wish more of these ASIC people were transparent.  

They spoke a week ago, do you need daily communication?

[ridnovir]

I am still on the fence about placing an order for Jupiter. Lack of any updated and specs and possibility of delay and loosing out play against me droping 7K on it especially if shipment will be late October.

Hashfast at least has specs on the site, costs 1k less for same 400G/h power, is based in US and states the delivery date in October 20-30

Your thoughts on Jupiter v Baby Jet ?  

And hashfast has anything more than KNC?  They are exactly the same at this point. Nothing shown = nothing. ROI's are 4 months and counting...

So very true. Both can turn up to be a waste of dough.
Can you elaborate on you ROI comment. So far the most pessimistic calculations predict ROI within 2 months or so.

[arbitrage001]

I am still on the fence about placing an order for Jupiter. Lack of any updated and specs and possibility of delay and loosing out play against me droping 7K on it especially if shipment will be late October.

Hashfast at least has specs on the site, costs 1k less for same 400G/h power, is based in US and states the delivery date in October 20-30

Your thoughts on Jupiter v Baby Jet ?  

And hashfast has anything more than KNC?  They are exactly the same at this point. Nothing shown = nothing. ROI's are 4 months and counting...

So very true. Both can turn up to be a waste of dough.
Can you elaborate on you ROI comment. So far the most pessimistic calculations predict ROI within 2 months or so.

What do you based your number on? My most optimistic number predict ROI in 3-4 months. That is if btc stay 90+ on average (which is extremely optimistic).

[bitcoinarnold]

Running any KnC kit delivered in Nov makes grim reading on the calculator here if it's anywhere close to right http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ especially since the October figures would be for kit delivered at the start of that month which is unlikely for most of us. I hope their 75% increase has taken the KnC rigs into account.

BFL peeps who have yet to see their box must read that with tears in their eyes.

Enjoy your 1000w vacuums!

[carlotech]

I just used skype to initiate a conference call between myself, my mate in Toowoomba, and called KNC, and to my surprise, Andreas Kennmar answered the tele!
We didn't keep him on the tele for long, but we asked a few relevant Q's I'll share
The first Q was my asking him about the possibility of watercooling the miners. The short explanation is no, they won't be designed for it, but is slated for gen2
Are we on track with delivery?...  Yes, we're in front.
Power supplies final specs?  Not as of yet, but there will be a new spec announcement soon with recommendations.
 

thanks for this info..  hope everything is on track .

[DPoS]

Blocks are flying past. We might hit 50M for the next adjustment.

I wonder how much impact all those USB erupters are having.  I know it takes over 1000 to equal one mini rig but it seems there's no end to them.

insects will eventually take over the world

[ridnovir]

So KnC has been relatively quiet lately?

I really wish more of these ASIC people were transparent.  

They spoke a week ago, do you need daily communication?

A week ago I knew nothing about mining.
so what did they say?
all is a OK!

[operador]

I don't know, my calculations show it looking pretty good.

Anyone using a percentage past the first month isn't using logic.

We MIGHT see a max a 75M Difficulty increase every month (Obviously not the first couple months until BFL Bitfury and Avalon get their act together.)

Interesting, how do you derive the 75M max increase per month?

[DigitalHermit]

I don't know, my calculations show it looking pretty good.

Anyone using a percentage past the first month isn't using logic.

We MIGHT see a max a 75M Difficulty increase every month (Obviously not the first couple months until BFL Bitfury and Avalon get their act together.)

Interesting, how do you derive the 75M max increase per month?

It's a 75 % (PERCENT) increase, not 75M. That was the monthly implied increase based on the most recent difficulty adjustment. See the difficulty column for an absolute value of difficulty in each month.

[DigitalHermit]

I don't know, my calculations show it looking pretty good.

Anyone using a percentage past the first month isn't using logic.

We MIGHT see a max a 75M Difficulty increase every month (Obviously not the first couple months until BFL Bitfury and Avalon get their act together.)

I would disagree. Anyone NOT using a percentage increase for every month in their calculations is the one failing the logic test (at least for the next 6 months to one year).

This same trajectory happened during the previous GPU boom - of course it will eventually level off as before, but no one knows exactly where (that's speculation).

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png

[timmmers]

I don't know, my calculations show it looking pretty good.

Anyone using a percentage past the first month isn't using logic.

We MIGHT see a max a 75M Difficulty increase every month (Obviously not the first couple months until BFL Bitfury and Avalon get their act together.)

That image shows the REAL increase for the month up to date 75%. What new hashpower leapt onto the scene to make that happen compared to the stuff we all know is about to come online in the next couple of months (and possibly some we know nothing about which are private projects)?

Granted this kind of increase isn't likely to be indefinite, but as KnC plan a next gen in march and prices drop and other will be planning new gen stuff too...it's not looking to me that it's going to slow in the next 6 months at least.

Look at the figures in that image for the projected difficulty in March and onwards. Massive.

Logic is exactly what is being used. Rather than wild optimism. Use the most reliable figures you know to estimate the future performance, the shelf life of the current batch of KnC miners isn't long at all.

What would be good to know is how accurate that calculator has been with something actually hashing, like a BFL Jally...given historical difficulty figures. I can't find anyone who's done that

I think that we're close to the point where the risk of buying a pre-order rig that may at best just break even, or an off the shelf rig that's already struggling vs just buying BTC and knowing you'll get at least what you paid for....that may result in less sales and a rise in coin prices to make mining worthwhile for those who can afford it and nudge the rigs struggling into a better return in the future. A rise in buying of BTC that drove the price to 130 dollars...that would help a lot of people to break even who might not currently?

[Phoenix1969]

400

[nmat]

I don't think percentages are a good way to estimate future difficulties. Moving from 10M to 20M is very different than moving from 100M to 200M, yet they are both 100% increases.

You should make a few guesses regarding the amount of hashing power that will enter the network during that period and calculate difficulty based on it.

[ffernandex]

We discussed earlier in the thread, the actual monthly rise has been 62% rather than 75, but using 75% will keep you on the safe side when considering mining equipment.

While it is true that exponential growth is not sustainable in the long run, we still don't know what does this "long run" mean for the ASICs. For all we know this growth is going to maintain for a while. ASICMiner has just announced new stock on all their products, AVALON has about 1 million chips (300 TH) in the verge of distributing, KnCMiner is supposed to start shipping in September, and then AVALON has announced Gen 2 chips on-stock (not pre-orders) for mid october and parallel development of Gen 3 and 4 chips simultaneously. Then we have Cointerra announcing a 500GH/s chip for mid october. And this is just to mention major players... At this rate not only buyers of mining equipment will be screwed with their ROI but also many manufacturers as well, when they'll have to sell their equipment at discount rates.

I have my doubts that KnCMiners shipped in Late october or early november will recoup the investment, and if they will, they will make minimum gains.

[timmmers]

We discussed earlier in the thread, the actual monthly rise has been 62% rather than 75, but using 75% will keep you on the safe side when considering mining equipment.

While it is true that exponential growth is not sustainable in the long run, we still don't know what does this "long run" mean for the ASICs. For all we know this growth is going to maintain for a while. ASICMiner has just announced new stock on all their products, AVALON has about 1 million chips (300 TH) in the verge of distributing, KnCMiner is supposed to start shipping in September, and then AVALON has announced Gen 2 chips on-stock (not pre-orders) for mid october and parallel development of Gen 3 and 4 chips simultaneously. Then we have Cointerra announcing a 500GH/s chip for mid october. And this is just to mention major players... At this rate not only buyers of mining equipment will be screwed with their ROI but also many manufacturers as well, when they'll have to sell their equipment at discount rates.

I have my doubts that KnCMiners shipped in Late october or early november will recoup the investment, and if they will, they will make minimum gains.

That 75% increase was the actual rise for the last month. Not an estimate. I didn't believe it either until I ran the numbers. I agree with what you say though, scary times ahead. Hopefully the value of BTC will rise enough to provide a boost. More people must end up buying them than currently happens when they become uneconomical to mine.

There's going to be a lot of people with 1000 watt hosted hoovers lol

[ffernandex]

We discussed earlier in the thread, the actual monthly rise has been 62% rather than 75, but using 75% will keep you on the safe side when considering mining equipment.

While it is true that exponential growth is not sustainable in the long run, we still don't know what does this "long run" mean for the ASICs. For all we know this growth is going to maintain for a while. ASICMiner has just announced new stock on all their products, AVALON has about 1 million chips (300 TH) in the verge of distributing, KnCMiner is supposed to start shipping in September, and then AVALON has announced Gen 2 chips on-stock (not pre-orders) for mid october and parallel development of Gen 3 and 4 chips simultaneously. Then we have Cointerra announcing a 500GH/s chip for mid october. And this is just to mention major players... At this rate not only buyers of mining equipment will be screwed with their ROI but also many manufacturers as well, when they'll have to sell their equipment at discount rates.

I have my doubts that KnCMiners shipped in Late october or early november will recoup the investment, and if they will, they will make minimum gains.

That 75% increase was the actual rise for the last month. Not an estimate. I didn't believe it either until I ran the numbers. I agree with what you say though, scary times ahead. Hopefully the value of BTC will rise enough to provide a boost. More people must end up buying them than currently happens when they become uneconomical to mine.

There's going to be a lot of people with 1000 watt hosted hoovers lol

75% was not the actual rise for the last month, it was the actual rise of the last three difficulty adjustments altogether (between dif 21335329.11 to 37392766.13 –blocks 245952 to 249984–) which took place in 34.8 days > that accounts for a rise of 75.26%.

The actual average monthly rate (30.4 days) for last month of difficulty adjustment was 63% with an average 1.62% daily rise. This rate has been very much the same at least since May 25th. Although this next difficulty adjustment is going to be way beyond the average 20.6% of difficulty increase per period of the last months.
 

[dextryn]

Whether these things start shipping at the beginning/end of the month is going to make a huge difference....