Maybe you can explain something to me:
How is it we went for like four days early in the week with single BTCs in the 55+% CDF, and got paid decently, then on Tuesday,
BitMinter gets 4 BTCs with CDF under 35%, and suddenly the pool Ths go up by around 4.5 Ths, and after two days of what should have been a freaking bonanza after a slow week, I got a total pay off of around 0.13 BTC for that 48 hours of work.
Now I pay the 2% pool perks to get paid first, and I know we don't get paid for stale work, but I have watched my return for slow days be better than extremely good days for pay out.
But most worryingly is I watched my daily profitability go from around from 0.48-0.54 BTCs to 0.34 BTCs on the very day of our best discoveries, and there were no corresponding changes in difficulty or network hashing power: only a change in the pool when blocks were discovered.
So while people are complaining about a CDF of 99%+, it really wasn't surprise. What was a surprise was BitMinters "API was down so weekly network hash rates couldn't be calculated" for the very week I watched my ROI go from 0.48 BTC to around 0.34 BTC per day in the very 48 hoir period when we get our biggest day for a while, and meanwhile there is a corresponding pool hash rate increase of some 25%?
Basically, because we watch the stats in real time, when we look for accounting of how our work was used, we don't get much explanation, even though I see that the BitMinter weekly pool stats in CDF and payouts correspond closely to other big pools.
Perhaps it was a synchronicity that on our biggest day for a while, Network hash rate suddenly increased such that there was a nearly 25% reduction in my daily return from my miner, that had nothing to do with either a software bug, an increase in pool hash rate, or the way the spoils are divvied up.
But I have read such complaints here before and dismissed them when the BitMinter guy comes in an explains why certain things are the way they are. And also, I had good support from BitMinter early on when I had a question. Finally, BitMinter, was the only software that worked with my first tiny .333 Ghs usb plugs, so I wanted to show my appreciation by sticking with the pool as it is a smaller one in the top ten, to help diversify the pool computation.
But it seems that if all things stay the same, my ROI hash rate return will fall below 0.1 BTC per day for a BFL 60 Ghs miner within the next 4 weeks.
While I understand that difficulty increases, I used the 61% year over year depreciation stat in the calculator for a purchasing decision. Now it appears that only true diagnostic for ROI is network hashrate-- not difficulty. OR POSSIBLY POOL HASHRATE.
I was under the impression that BitMinter had some type of controls installed so that people couldn't easily pool hop. But maybe that is what is needed.
So it appears to me, that my BFL 60 Ghs miner which was totally profitable less than 10 days ago suddenly became unprofitable by almost 0.16 BTC per day within a single 48 hour period.
I don't dispute it's possible or likely, it just doesn't seem to correspond to what I was getting several orders of magnitude lower with my .333 ghs miners.
The data does not continue to comply with the estimations at higher hash rates, even when accounting for difficulty.
Thus, I need some kind of explanation or I have to start looking elsewhere for any shred of profitability until I get ROI, which should have been Dec. 14, 2013 at the latest and now seems pushed back to June 2014, as of yesterday.
Honestly, I am trying to make a decent go of this, with good accounting, and yesterday doesn't seem to add up-- even when accounting for unclosed blocks waiting to be paid.
It really sucks, and if Network Hashrate is the true Gorilla in the room rather than difficulty, how has that avoided the major avenues of research here on Bitcointalk.org and other newsworthy sites. Because if Network Hashrate IS the gorilla in the room, then every calculator I've used lacks a Network Difficulty variable to help keep from screwing ourselves.
If our community is so desperate as to need to completely misrepresent the way that difficulty works so that folks will buy hardware from only 4 manufacturers without a real picture of deflation, then we are everything the straight banking community says we are.
And rather than make the next leap to a 2 Th machine to continue mining, after yesterday, it looks like I should be one of the assholes on eBay asking a lot for a machine and get out of the game now....
It's really kind of disappointing.
Any happy thoughts?