Nemo1024
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Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
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August 13, 2013, 06:34:30 AM |
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The luck today blows...Somebody save us!
Umm... You are usually the one to do that  |
“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
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SgtSpike
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1005
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August 13, 2013, 06:49:13 AM |
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We won the wrong lottery guys... CDF of 99.9%!!
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Nemo1024
Legendary
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Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
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August 13, 2013, 06:52:28 AM |
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 Has there been only one (and soon none) block in the confirmation queue at all? Anyway, hang in there, everyone. It should average out over time...
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“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
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polarhei
Sr. Member
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Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Firing it up
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August 13, 2013, 07:21:38 AM |
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Number will be sum up to At least 120Th/s later on, There the fun begins.
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shmadz
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Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
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August 13, 2013, 08:11:14 AM |
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100,000 shares for a block? meh, bad luck
150,000 shares?? must be really bad luck (went back 40 pages on the block history, never found a block over 150K)
278,000 shares? I begin to think something might be broken...
I'm certain that there will probably be a string of 10 blocks in less than 10 hours after this monster... but it's just so far above normal, like double the previous worst case scenario.
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"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
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||bit
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August 13, 2013, 08:12:33 AM |
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Bitminter is about 20TH. Network is 400TH. 400 / 20 = 20. Therefore Bitminter has a 1/20 chance of finding a block. Statistically, BM should find 5% of 124, or about 6.2 Blocks/Day (currently).
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SgtSpike
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1005
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August 13, 2013, 08:19:43 AM |
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Bitminter is about 20TH. Network is 400TH. 400 / 20 = 20. Therefore Bitminter has a 1/20 chance of finding a block. Statistically, BM should find 5% of 124, or about 6.2 Blocks/Day (currently).
Isn't it 144 blocks/day (at 6 per hour)? I calculated it differently. 20 TH/s at the current difficulty calculates out to 268 BTC/day using this web calculator: http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculatorTherefore, we should be finding, on average, 10-11 blocks per day. |
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GoMaD
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Activity: 74
Merit: 15
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August 13, 2013, 08:39:52 AM |
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18h 01m - and done.. Thanks zionj  |
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Nemo1024
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Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
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August 13, 2013, 08:59:40 AM
Last edit: August 13, 2013, 01:17:37 PM by Nemo1024 |
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18h 01m - and done.. Thanks zionj Yay. This mastodon was the payment for the 1 minute block:  251484 2013-08-11 06:36 1m 399,022 37,392,766 1.1% 17,487.617 BTC 0000 EDIT: And we are over 85% again, while BTCGuild has already found29 blocks today. It also looks like we are down on luck in NMC... |
“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
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kano
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4298
Merit: 1754
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
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August 13, 2013, 11:10:18 AM |
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Bitminter is about 20TH. Network is 400TH. 400 / 20 = 20. Therefore Bitminter has a 1/20 chance of finding a block. Statistically, BM should find 5% of 124, or about 6.2 Blocks/Day (currently).
Isn't it 144 blocks/day (at 6 per hour)? I calculated it differently. 20 TH/s at the current difficulty calculates out to 268 BTC/day using this web calculator: http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculatorTherefore, we should be finding, on average, 10-11 blocks per day. You don't use the network rate, that rises (and falls) over the two weeks of a static difficulty, you use the network difficulty. Current difficulty is 37,392,766.13647456, so the pool should find (on average) one block every 37,392,766 1diff shares submitted until the difficulty changes. That represents 37,392,766.1364745 x 2^32 hashes. If the pool is 20TH then it is divide that by 20*10^12 ... = 8030 seconds So expect to find a block on average every 2hr 13min 50s Or 10.76 blocks on average a day. |
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kano
Legendary
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Activity: 4298
Merit: 1754
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
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August 13, 2013, 01:10:30 PM |
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So I'm just curious ... any special reason why stratum nonce2 is 6 bytes on bitminter? Does bitminter expect anyone to have something like 600,000TH/s mining in a single work item? If stratum nonce2 was 4 bytes, although you only really need 30 seconds, you could hash for a day from a single work item with 213.5TH/s 30 seconds (the norm) allows for 614,891TH/s nonce2 size 6 allows for up to 156,182,433TH/s per work item for 30s |
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||bit
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August 13, 2013, 01:36:04 PM |
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Bitminter is about 20TH. Network is 400TH. 400 / 20 = 20. Therefore Bitminter has a 1/20 chance of finding a block. Statistically, BM should find 5% of 124, or about 6.2 Blocks/Day (currently).
Isn't it 144 blocks/day (at 6 per hour)? I calculated it differently. 20 TH/s at the current difficulty calculates out to 268 BTC/day using this web calculator: http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculatorTherefore, we should be finding, on average, 10-11 blocks per day. Yep. Correction is needed. It is 144 blocks per day. Thanks. That comes out to 7.2 blocks/day for BitMinter at 5% of network hash rate. I'm not going by difficulty, but network hash rate because network hash rate is calculated more often (I think) if not more applicable to current variables. I could be wrong. |
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westkybitcoins
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1004
Firstbits: Compromised. Thanks, Android!
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August 13, 2013, 01:43:30 PM |
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Bitminter is about 20TH. Network is 400TH. 400 / 20 = 20. Therefore Bitminter has a 1/20 chance of finding a block. Statistically, BM should find 5% of 124, or about 6.2 Blocks/Day (currently).
Isn't it 144 blocks/day (at 6 per hour)? I calculated it differently. 20 TH/s at the current difficulty calculates out to 268 BTC/day using this web calculator: http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculatorTherefore, we should be finding, on average, 10-11 blocks per day. Yep. Correction is needed. It is 144 blocks per day. Thanks. That comes out to 7.2 blocks/day for BitMinter at 5% of network hash rate. I'm not going by difficulty, but network hash rate because network hash rate is calculated more often (I think). It is calculated more often, but it is not relevant until the next difficulty adjustment. When the math is done by miners trying to make blocks, they only look at the difficulty. It is the frequency of published blocks that people use to determine what the network hash rate is... it is not some accurate snapshot of the network's mining power, but rather an estimate (if everyone was having bad luck, the network hash rate would be calculated as being lower than it really was.) Currently, the network is finding over 9 blocks an hour, but that is not (yet) in any way hindering us from finding any blocks. Everyone continues to find them at the current difficulty. |
Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
... ... In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber... ... ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)... ... The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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DrHaribo (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 2716
Merit: 1034
Bitminter.com Operator
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August 13, 2013, 02:30:29 PM |
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There seem to be a compatibility problem with bitminter and the latest cgminer 3.3.3 version. I keep getting this message from bitminter pool:
Seems there is already a fix for this. So I'm just curious ... any special reason why stratum nonce2 is 6 bytes on bitminter?
To support sub-pools. I've been running 10 USB sticks constantly, I've noticed my balance hasn't changed in the last 14hrs, why is this? Thanks!
Bad luck - it happens. |
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philipma1957
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Activity: 3892
Merit: 6443
Sinbad Mixer: Mix Your BTC Quickly
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August 13, 2013, 03:21:18 PM |
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Bitminter is about 20TH. Network is 400TH. 400 / 20 = 20. Therefore Bitminter has a 1/20 chance of finding a block. Statistically, BM should find 5% of 124, or about 6.2 Blocks/Day (currently).
Isn't it 144 blocks/day (at 6 per hour)? I calculated it differently. 20 TH/s at the current difficulty calculates out to 268 BTC/day using this web calculator: http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculatorTherefore, we should be finding, on average, 10-11 blocks per day. Yep. Correction is needed. It is 144 blocks per day. Thanks. That comes out to 7.2 blocks/day for BitMinter at 5% of network hash rate. I'm not going by difficulty, but network hash rate because network hash rate is calculated more often (I think). It is calculated more often, but it is not relevant until the next difficulty adjustment. When the math is done by miners trying to make blocks, they only look at the difficulty. It is the frequency of published blocks that people use to determine what the network hash rate is... it is not some accurate snapshot of the network's mining power, but rather an estimate (if everyone was having bad luck, the network hash rate would be calculated as being lower than it really was.) Currently, the network is finding over 9 blocks an hour, but that is not (yet) in any way hindering us from finding any blocks. Everyone continues to find them at the current difficulty. yeah difficulty is what matters. think of difficulty of 37 mill as a wheel of fortune you spin. it has 37 mill slots only one wins. our hash of 20th it how many times we can spin that wheel. in a given period of time |
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lano1106
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August 13, 2013, 05:36:51 PM |
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So I'm just curious ... any special reason why stratum nonce2 is 6 bytes on bitminter?
To support sub-pools. Is this a feature available to all or only for special cases? (ie: like when AsicMiner used bitminter) |
BTC: 1ABewnrZgCds7w9RH43NwMHX5Px6ex5uNR
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kano
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4298
Merit: 1754
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
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August 13, 2013, 05:41:46 PM |
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Bitminter is about 20TH. Network is 400TH. 400 / 20 = 20. Therefore Bitminter has a 1/20 chance of finding a block. Statistically, BM should find 5% of 124, or about 6.2 Blocks/Day (currently).
Isn't it 144 blocks/day (at 6 per hour)? I calculated it differently. 20 TH/s at the current difficulty calculates out to 268 BTC/day using this web calculator: http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculatorTherefore, we should be finding, on average, 10-11 blocks per day. Yep. Correction is needed. It is 144 blocks per day. Thanks. That comes out to 7.2 blocks/day for BitMinter at 5% of network hash rate. I'm not going by difficulty, but network hash rate because network hash rate is calculated more often (I think) if not more applicable to current variables. I could be wrong. Yeah, right, I made my post coz I didn't know what I was talking about  |
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DrHaribo (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 2716
Merit: 1034
Bitminter.com Operator
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August 13, 2013, 06:07:40 PM |
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So I'm just curious ... any special reason why stratum nonce2 is 6 bytes on bitminter?
To support sub-pools. Is this a feature available to all or only for special cases? (ie: like when AsicMiner used bitminter) This is available for anyone. nonce2 is 6 bytes at BitMinter. You can create a subpool that has a 4 byte nonce2 and have up to 65536 active workers in your pool. In the future the nonce2 size will be configurable by worker account. I just did this as a temporary fix to make subpools possible before the worker configs are available. |
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westkybitcoins
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 980
Merit: 1004
Firstbits: Compromised. Thanks, Android!
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August 13, 2013, 06:29:37 PM |
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This rash of extreme delays between blocks, both BTC and NMC, seems like it's starting to become a statistical anomaly. A "that-guy-just-won-the-lottery-for-the-5th-time" level anomaly.
Anyone done the math as to the chances of going this long while putting out these CDF numbers? If it continues for much longer, it's going to be a very bad sign.
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Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
... ... In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber... ... ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)... ... The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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kano
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4298
Merit: 1754
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
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August 13, 2013, 06:36:45 PM |
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This rash of extreme delays between blocks, both BTC and NMC, seems like it's starting to become a statistical anomaly. A "that-guy-just-won-the-lottery-for-the-5th-time" level anomaly.
Anyone done the math as to the chances of going this long while putting out these CDF numbers? If it continues for much longer, it's going to be a very bad sign.
Until it gets to about 1000%, it's not really that unlikely. When you are finding hundreds of blocks a month, you'll hit really slow ones as well as really quick ones. i.e. at a pool doing 20TH/s, if you get to 22hrs then yeah you are into rare territory for slow block finding. Rare, but not impossible. |
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