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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939940 times)
Tzupy
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January 13, 2015, 07:30:23 PM
 #2401

I am waiting for one more down, but China seems to have gone to sleep, so the rest of the market waits for them to wake up and decide direction.
If there won't be one more down, this means it was truncated (locally), and since the volume wasn't IMO high enough for capitulation, it would
leave open the possibility of a larger order extension. So... bulls, pray that we go down one more time and that should be THE bottom.

Larger order extension?

The bulls on Bitfinex think since it didn't go down in due time, it was truncated, maybe it was, but Chinese volume is much weaker.
By a "larger order extension" I mean that while the market may go up for a while (several days), because it was truncated and didn't drop low enough, it could drop again below the current low.
To confirm truncation, the market needs to stay for a significant amount of time above 240$.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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klee
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January 13, 2015, 07:44:10 PM
 #2402

I am waiting for one more down, but China seems to have gone to sleep, so the rest of the market waits for them to wake up and decide direction.
If there won't be one more down, this means it was truncated (locally), and since the volume wasn't IMO high enough for capitulation, it would
leave open the possibility of a larger order extension. So... bulls, pray that we go down one more time and that should be THE bottom.

Larger order extension?

The bulls on Bitfinex think since it didn't go down in due time, it was truncated, maybe it was, but Chinese volume is much weaker.
By a "larger order extension" I mean that while the market may go up for a while (several days), because it was truncated and didn't drop low enough, it could drop again below the current low.
To confirm truncation, the market needs to stay for a significant amount of time above 240$.
Was ist truncation?
CocoBongo
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January 13, 2015, 07:44:39 PM
 #2403

interesting
realdos
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January 13, 2015, 08:09:07 PM
 #2404

why didn't you sell them back to bitfinex then?
thefiniteidea
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January 14, 2015, 06:15:39 AM
 #2405

A bit of nasty speculation for you all...

Bitcoin hits $200 in January  Wink




helluvaname
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January 14, 2015, 06:26:04 AM
 #2406

A bit of nasty speculation for you all...

Bitcoin hits $200 in January  Wink





wow!
that was a lucky guess! congrats!
RyNinDaCleM
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January 14, 2015, 06:48:29 AM
 #2407

A bit of nasty speculation for you all...

Bitcoin hits $200 in January  Wink





wow!
that was a lucky guess! congrats!

You could probably do it too if you'd stop looking at it as merely "a guess".

Tzupy
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January 14, 2015, 08:38:25 AM
 #2408

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.

What does bid/ask sum have to do with predicting major movements in price?

Jack shit.

GTFO of here with that useless FUD you worthless troll.

Let's see what happened... Wink

With a lot of help from Chinese panic sellers, my prediction became true regarding prices:
Bitstamp 152$, BTC-E 176$, Bitfinex 166$, and mainland Chinese exchanges ~900CNY, let's say 150$.
I was wrong about the timing though, the first drop started 2 days earlier than expected and ended with this high volume capitulation 7 days earlier.
So my EW-derived method is not accurate with respect to timing... shrug.
The extra fiat on Huobi only made a small difference, it wasn't possible to stop this deluge.
And while this should be THE bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if support at these levels gets tested in a month or two.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
windjc
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January 14, 2015, 08:45:27 AM
 #2409

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.

What does bid/ask sum have to do with predicting major movements in price?

Jack shit.

GTFO of here with that useless FUD you worthless troll.

Let's see what happened... Wink

With a lot of help from Chinese panic sellers, my prediction became true regarding prices:
Bitstamp 152$, BTC-E 176$, Bitfinex 166$, and mainland Chinese exchanges ~900CNY, let's say 150$.
I was wrong about the timing though, the first drop started 2 days earlier than expected and ended with this high volume capitulation 7 days earlier.
So my EW-derived method is not accurate with respect to timing... shrug.
The extra fiat on Huobi only made a small difference, it wasn't possible to stop this deluge.
And while this should be THE bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if support at these levels gets tested in a month or two.


Good call Tzupy!
N12
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January 14, 2015, 08:51:48 AM
 #2410

Bad rebuke, lebing! Angry

(Sorry, I had to.)
elasticband
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January 14, 2015, 09:33:14 AM
 #2411

oh what a day Smiley
pinky
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January 14, 2015, 10:23:54 AM
 #2412

Any update on where are we now? Is this the bottom?



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JustAnotherSheep
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January 14, 2015, 10:31:20 AM
Last edit: January 14, 2015, 10:43:28 AM by JustAnotherSheep
 #2413

And while this should be THE bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if support at these levels gets tested in a month or two.
Well the rise so far seems corrective so we should have one more down, although given how far up the 4th went I wouldn't be surprised if 5 will be truncated/double bottom.

edit: yup, here we go Grin

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
poncho32
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January 14, 2015, 10:39:40 AM
 #2414

And while this should be THE bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if support at these levels gets tested in a month or two.
Well the rise so far seems corrective so we should have one more down, although given how far up the 4th went I wouldn't be surprised if 5 will be truncated/double bottom.

edit: yup, here we go Grin

Is that probably it afterwards? Will the price stop falling? My nerves are frazzled due to the big crash.
lunarboy
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January 14, 2015, 10:48:52 AM
 #2415

Is this the capitulation/bottom everyone has been shouting about? Or is there more  to come?

just lying on the beach thinking about going for a beer  Cool
poncho32
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January 14, 2015, 10:53:29 AM
 #2416

Is this the capitulation/bottom everyone has been shouting about? Or is there more  to come?

just lying on the beach thinking about going for a beer  Cool

That's what I'm wondering. Is it capitulation or are there more legs down?
ImI
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January 14, 2015, 12:11:33 PM
 #2417

as a former stockmarket-trader i say, yes thats what capitulation looks like. we finally have the volume and the needed volatility.

nevertheless its obv hard to tell if its over yet.
poncho32
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January 14, 2015, 12:16:07 PM
 #2418

as a former stockmarket-trader i say, yes thats what capitulation looks like. we finally have the volume and the needed volatility.

nevertheless its obv hard to tell if its over yet.

Thanks

Is bitcoin harder or easier than stocks to trade?
ImI
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January 14, 2015, 12:34:33 PM
 #2419

as a former stockmarket-trader i say, yes thats what capitulation looks like. we finally have the volume and the needed volatility.

nevertheless its obv hard to tell if its over yet.

Thanks

Is bitcoin harder or easier than stocks to trade?

depends, on which stocks you are comparing to bitcoin. apple etc are easier to handle imo, but pennystocks are more or less the same.
Tzupy
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January 14, 2015, 12:38:45 PM
 #2420

By comparing the current events with those of 17th - 18th October 2011, it it possible that the current bounce is a DCB.
In this case, it is possible to retrace to the same ballpark as the minimum. This needs to be watched closely, at some point
it is possible to see panic again and a large dump, if further upward movement is not confirmed.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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