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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 935855 times)
lebing
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January 01, 2015, 04:51:21 PM
 #2341

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.

What does bid/ask sum have to do with predicting major movements in price?

Jack shit.

GTFO of here with that useless FUD you worthless troll.
Really now? Over the years, I've found it an invaluable tool.

Also, can you moderate your tone? By contrast of your response, you're certainly more of a troll than he is. Tzupy merely made some observations, and some of them even bullish in nature (so much for "FUD").

Sorry, but no.

He just posts worthless garbage to get people to act the way he wants them to by inciting fear/ greed with very little rationale. I wouldn't expect you to notice that however as you are not much better.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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N12
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January 01, 2015, 05:50:05 PM
 #2342

Bid/ask sum and its divergences are one useful indicator among many. I disagreed with much of your past stuff too, but you never heard me berate or insult you for it. Tzupy's posts are not so much different from the creator of this thread, as he too uses mainly EW.

I honestly think you're getting emotional here and reading things that just aren't there. Let's dissect the post in question. I will even color the parts for illustration.


I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
Description of what he's looking at. Nothing to see here.
Quote
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
Bearish according to his interpretation of this particular indicator at one of the analyzed exchanges. He begins saying "the differences are massive", implying that there's two sides of the coin, with the other very different one yet to come.
Quote
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
The other, bullish side of the coin, with even some bullish rumors/speculation mixed in.
Quote
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.
A conclusion of confusion.

And yes, our tone will stay moderate or I'll have to make it so. Discourse, not flame war. Thanks. Cheesy
pinky
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January 01, 2015, 06:00:51 PM
 #2343

Yeah, no need to be nasty, just use ignore button. If you use it correctly you will end up with the best and most valuable comments + your life expectancy will increase due to the lack of stressors.  Smiley



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SmoothCurves
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January 01, 2015, 06:03:27 PM
 #2344

Yeah, no need to be nasty, just use ignore button. If you use it correctly you will end up with the best and most valuable comments + your life expectancy will increase due to the lack of stressors.  Smiley

Amen. That's what I do.
Tzupy
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January 01, 2015, 06:42:20 PM
 #2345

Blitz explained well what I meant, so I'll only add this: if the market would be driven by Bitstamp (or BTC-E) it should crash and burn.
To do so, the downward movement has to gain momentum, but with a lot of fresh fiat on Chinese exchanges, this is difficult.
While I doubt that there is enough fresh fiat on Huobi and others for a true trend reversal now, it may be enough to delay, dampen, and
even truncate possible upcoming drops. To confirm a trend reversal (to bull market), IMO the market should at least break resistance at 365$.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
Wandererfromthenorth
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January 01, 2015, 07:01:38 PM
Last edit: January 03, 2015, 05:28:59 PM by Wandererfromthenorth
 #2346

Blitz explained well what I meant, so I'll only add this: if the market would be driven by Bitstamp (or BTC-E) it should crash and burn.
To do so, the downward movement has to gain momentum, but with a lot of fresh fiat on Chinese exchanges, this is difficult.
While I doubt that there is enough fresh fiat on Huobi and others for a true trend reversal now, it may be enough to delay, dampen, and
even truncate possible upcoming drops. To confirm a trend reversal (to bull market), IMO the market should at least break resistance at 365$.
It's possible that chinese whales just put support in order to sustain the price during this consolidation.


They need to keep the price inside the big triangle, only when we are forced to exit there is momentum to go lower. At that point the additional buy support needed to keep the price inside it will not be necessary anymore and will be pulled/self dumped.

There was the 1-2k buy wall at bitstamp too for example a few days back (to help keep the price above $300) but was easily pulled/displaced.







Red arrows show the point at which there is momentum to go lower because we are forced to exit the formations (either up or down):



lebing
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January 01, 2015, 07:02:12 PM
 #2347

Yeah, no need to be nasty, just use ignore button. If you use it correctly you will end up with the best and most valuable comments + your life expectancy will increase due to the lack of stressors.  Smiley

Amen. That's what I do.

I had him on ignore for a long time, but it bothers me to no end that I see noobies getting sucked into his bullshit.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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January 01, 2015, 07:03:31 PM
Last edit: January 04, 2015, 07:21:22 PM by Wandererfromthenorth
 #2348

But then again, I don't know if that chinese buy support is legit or fake.

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January 01, 2015, 07:07:24 PM
 #2349

Yeah, no need to be nasty, just use ignore button. If you use it correctly you will end up with the best and most valuable comments + your life expectancy will increase due to the lack of stressors.  Smiley

Amen. That's what I do.

I had him on ignore for a long time, but it bothers me to no end that I see noobies getting sucked into his bullshit.
He posts perfectly legit analyses and observations but since it's not always bullish like you might like, you don't like reading them.
Pretty simple really. You getting emotional over it and insulting people pretty much proves it.
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January 01, 2015, 07:08:50 PM
 #2350


I had him on ignore for a long time, but it bothers me to no end that I see noobies getting sucked into his bullshit.
http://s30.postimg.org/wglojos4h/Capture.jpg
http://s21.postimg.org/5pkxx0p7r/honey_badger.jpg
belmonty
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January 01, 2015, 10:29:44 PM
 #2351

Did masterluc say he would be away from the thread for Christmas?
Ivanhoe
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January 01, 2015, 11:32:39 PM
 #2352

Did masterluc say he would be away from the thread for Christmas?
If he said that then i am sure he meant the christian-orthodox Christmas, since he is russian, which we celebrate at 7 January.
masterluc
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January 03, 2015, 08:21:52 PM
 #2353

As for roubles - I don't have them as I am not Russian.

As for my dissapear - I was almost dead boring waiting 1 year wedge to complete (or failure). Still boring.

podyx
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January 03, 2015, 08:26:39 PM
 #2354

As for roubles - I don't have them as I am not Russian.

As for my dissapear - I was almost dead boring waiting 1 year wedge to complete (or failure). Still boring.

What's your opinion on the market now?
masterluc
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January 03, 2015, 08:29:23 PM
 #2355

As for roubles - I don't have them as I am not Russian.

As for my dissapear - I was almost dead boring waiting 1 year wedge to complete (or failure). Still boring.

What's your opinion on the market now?
unchanged. Tracing out giant triple zigzag bullish wedge since ATH.

RyNinDaCleM
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January 03, 2015, 08:34:35 PM
 #2356

As for roubles - I don't have them as I am not Russian.

As for my dissapear - I was almost dead boring waiting 1 year wedge to complete (or failure). Still boring.

What's your opinion on the market now?
unchanged. Tracing out giant triple zigzag bullish wedge since ATH.

What are you saying? Another 6-8 months of this boredom to complete the Xx and final zigzag?

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January 03, 2015, 08:35:36 PM
 #2357

What would be a good price to start buying back in at if it  goes down that far?
masterluc
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January 03, 2015, 08:36:11 PM
 #2358


What are you saying? Another 6-8 months of this boredom to complete the Xx and final zigzag?
In my opinion we are in "z"

Gunfight and arty makes some difficulties with Internet and analysis hehe

Tzupy
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January 03, 2015, 08:50:08 PM
 #2359


What are you saying? Another 6-8 months of this boredom to complete the Xx and final zigzag?
In my opinion we are in "z"

Gunfight and arty makes some difficulties with Internet and analysis hehe

I'm not familiar with the XYWZ notation in EW, so I searched an image for better understanding. Is this the Z that you mean?
I market my opinion on the current market position with a light purple cross. Would that be correct, or should it be lower?


Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
RyNinDaCleM
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January 03, 2015, 10:03:17 PM
 #2360


What are you saying? Another 6-8 months of this boredom to complete the Xx and final zigzag?
In my opinion we are in "z"

Gunfight and arty makes some difficulties with Internet and analysis hehe

I'm not familiar with the XYWZ notation in EW, so I searched an image for better understanding. Is this the Z that you mean?
I market my opinion on the current market position with a light purple cross. Would that be correct, or should it be lower?



Well, that's a triple zigzag of triple zigzags but that's the gist, yes.

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