Analysis

[odin.dillinger]

Master Luc, I summon thou

Shhhh, dont disturb the Master while he is (hopefully making a) killing off the rouble

[1714155097]

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[1714155097]

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[1714155097]

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[idee2013]

@Luc

could you please say if this rsi  3D bull div is valid? Until now it seems that this is the first bull div (not hidden) this year

[sinner]

where is the master

[phoenix1]

where is the master

Standing at $200 with a big net 

[sniveling]

Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.

He posted this over a week ago. I asked if it means we are likely to be at $200 by new year, but he has not replied yet,

[RyNinDaCleM]

@Luc

could you please say if this rsi  3D bull div is valid? Until now it seems that this is the first bull div (not hidden) this year

It is indeed valid.
Signal for reversal? Not yet
Lower time frames need to complete their respective structures and rounds of divergence before the 3 day is acknowledged. By that time, the 3 day will no longer have a divergence.

[Tzupy]

The bid side has recovered somewhat, 6h PSAR has flipped to bullish, but 15 min MACD looks bearish.
A quadruple top, yikes. Will there be another dump before a strong rebound, that is the question?

[unent]

The bid side has recovered somewhat, 6h PSAR has flipped to bullish, but 15 min MACD looks bearish.
A quadruple top, yikes. Will there be another dump before a strong rebound, that is the question?

Does a classic double top usually happen before a crash, and a triple top happen before a rally?

Does a quadruple top have significance in TA?

[Tzupy]

The bid side has recovered somewhat, 6h PSAR has flipped to bullish, but 15 min MACD looks bearish.
A quadruple top, yikes. Will there be another dump before a strong rebound, that is the question?

Does a classic double top usually happen before a crash, and a triple top happen before a rally?

Does a quadruple top have significance in TA?

A triple top is also bearish. Breaking support at 305$ would trigger a large dump.
AFAIK there is no quadruple top in TA. But if a breakout succeeds after this, it would look bullish.
I interpret the quadruple top as a temporary inability to break resistance, this can change tomorrow.

[prophetx]

strange we are going up leading up to the bitcoin bowl i guess

[Tzupy]

China still looking somewhat bullish, but with bearish divergences in small time frames.
MFI and SRSI are slowly descending from the overbought area, IMO this uptrend lost momentum.
To confirm upcoming correction, I look for 6h PSAR to flip in China (it did temporarily flip on Bitstmap at the 2k dump).

[Argwai96]

The bid side has recovered somewhat, 6h PSAR has flipped to bullish, but 15 min MACD looks bearish.
A quadruple top, yikes. Will there be another dump before a strong rebound, that is the question?

Does a classic double top usually happen before a crash, and a triple top happen before a rally?

Does a quadruple top have significance in TA?

A triple top is also bearish. Breaking support at 305$ would trigger a large dump.
AFAIK there is no quadruple top in TA. But if a breakout succeeds after this, it would look bullish.
I interpret the quadruple top as a temporary inability to break resistance, this can change tomorrow.

The $300~ support level has been tested several times in the past few months (since ~september) and such support appears to be very strong. Breaching this level will probably result in further price declines of at least $40-$50 in the near term

[Hen0xyd]

The $300~ support level has been tested several times in the past few months (since ~september) and such support appears to be very strong. Breaching this level will probably result in further price declines of at least $40-$50 in the near term

I think 300 is pretty strong too, but different EW counts leads to suppose a breach to 275 is also probable.

Here is a chart of mine, using EW (I'm beginner in EW analysis so feel free to criticize and give feedback) :
- check https://www.tradingview.com/v/5KWjIxbQ/ for details and more explanations

[RyNinDaCleM]

The $300~ support level has been tested several times in the past few months (since ~september) and such support appears to be very strong. Breaching this level will probably result in further price declines of at least $40-$50 in the near term

I think 300 is pretty strong too, but different EW counts leads to suppose a breach to 275 is also probable.

Here is a chart of mine, using EW (I'm beginner in EW analysis so feel free to criticize and give feedback) :
- check https://www.tradingview.com/v/5KWjIxbQ/ for details and more explanations

Wave-C is always an impulse, meaning 5 waves and standard impulse rules apply.


As you have your chart labeled with the pink (III), the (IV) actually can drop below the green iii according to the typical retracement of an impulsive wave. After a fifth wave is complete, the correction usually ends in the territory of the 4th wave of one smaller degree. In this case, somewhere between $259 (stamp wave-iii high) and $45 (stamp wave-iv low). It isn't an absolute rule, but it should be expected as an initial target. Since the April high is the 3 to Decembers 5, that is where to look for a bottom.



 

[Hen0xyd]

The $300~ support level has been tested several times in the past few months (since ~september) and such support appears to be very strong. Breaching this level will probably result in further price declines of at least $40-$50 in the near term

I think 300 is pretty strong too, but different EW counts leads to suppose a breach to 275 is also probable.

Here is a chart of mine, using EW (I'm beginner in EW analysis so feel free to criticize and give feedback) :
- check https://www.tradingview.com/v/5KWjIxbQ/ for details and more explanations

Wave-C is always an impulse, meaning 5 waves and standard impulse rules apply.


As you have your chart labeled with the pink (III), the (IV) actually can drop below the green iii according to the typical retracement of an impulsive wave. After a fifth wave is complete, the correction usually ends in the territory of the 4th wave of one smaller degree. In this case, somewhere between $259 (stamp wave-iii high) and $45 (stamp wave-iv low). It isn't an absolute rule, but it should be expected as an initial target. Since the April high is the 3 to Decembers 5, that is where to look for a bottom.

Thanks for the feedback RyNinDaCleM, appreciated.

So, if I understand your remarks (please tell me if I summarized it wrong), you pointed 2 things :

- from EW rules my first C target ($300) is incorrect cause wave 5 of smaller degree, labelled (5), should at least go as far as (3)
- from EW rules my second C target (testing again $278 or ultimately $257) is correct - still - my "ultimately" is (from your experience) not correct since C can end up in between III (old ATH) and IV ($85 but lowest point inside this wave is $45). For different reasons I don't see 257 a possible breakable level but thanks for providing a classical initial target ; I didn't know about this.  

[sumantso]

where is the master

Frantically getting rid of his Rubles.

So majority feels its gonna go south?

[bigtimespaghetti]

Feels like we need to test 300-305 again. But the honeybadger does as it pleases.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks for the feedback RyNinDaCleM, appreciated.

So, if I understand your remarks (please tell me if I summarized it wrong), you pointed 2 things :

- from EW rules my first C target ($300) is incorrect cause wave 5 of smaller degree, labelled (5), should at least go as far as (3)
- from EW rules my second C target (testing again $278 or ultimately $257) is correct - still - my "ultimately" is (from your experience) not correct since C can end up in between III (old ATH) and IV ($85 but lowest point inside this wave is $45). For different reasons I don't see 257 a possible breakable level but thanks for providing a classical initial target ; I didn't know about this.  

Now I can see your yellow (5). All the labels were stacked up on top of each other so it made it difficult to see. That is where the first remark came from. And I should clarify, C is always 5 waves, and always follows impulse rules except if it's an ending diagonal which is still 5 waves in the form of 5 zigzags as you have drawn. So that is valid.

The second remark was more in response to the green note you made on the chart. Maybe I misunderstood it and you weren't saying that it can't go below $259, just that it shouldn't due to fibo targets/trend lines/structures.

Wave-5 does not need to make a new low. This is called truncation and it happens, especially in Bitcoin.
Your counts are fine, I just had to stretch them a bit to see what labels were there.

[realdos]

I guess Masterluc will not show up until the price finally reaches sub-200.

[thefiniteidea]

A bit of nasty speculation for you all...

Bitcoin hits $200 in January