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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939290 times)
lebing
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January 14, 2015, 02:02:34 PM
 #2421

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.

What does bid/ask sum have to do with predicting major movements in price?

Jack shit.

GTFO of here with that useless FUD you worthless troll.

Let's see what happened... Wink

With a lot of help from Chinese panic sellers, my prediction became true regarding prices:
Bitstamp 152$, BTC-E 176$, Bitfinex 166$, and mainland Chinese exchanges ~900CNY, let's say 150$.
I was wrong about the timing though, the first drop started 2 days earlier than expected and ended with this high volume capitulation 7 days earlier.
So my EW-derived method is not accurate with respect to timing... shrug.
The extra fiat on Huobi only made a small difference, it wasn't possible to stop this deluge.
And while this should be THE bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if support at these levels gets tested in a month or two.


fair enough. My bad. I definitely was emotional and I apologize for that. You were obviously right. That being said, I have to say that without a chart to back it up and what seemed to me like baseless speculation to try and goad people into panicking, I just lost it. There are tons of people on this forum that do nothing else besides trying to manipulate other people into feeding their position one way or another and I have very little patience for these people.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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January 14, 2015, 02:13:01 PM
 #2422

Charts showing similarities and differences with October 2011, so far we have dodged the retrace, if this stays so it's bullish.




Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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January 14, 2015, 04:41:33 PM
 #2423

Any update on where are we now? Is this the bottom?

Let's put it this way, if $150 isn't the bottom, then god help anyone still holding coins... and hello double digit BTC.

$150 is a really really strong support level, breaching this would mean capitulation. I've even bought some coin at $160-$170, so if I see that potentially happen, I will be selling these new coins along with everyone else.

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January 14, 2015, 05:19:08 PM
 #2424

Any update on where are we now? Is this the bottom?

Let's put it this way, if $150 isn't the bottom, then god help anyone still holding coins... and hello double digit BTC.

$150 is a really really strong support level, breaching this would mean capitulation. I've even bought some coin at $160-$170, so if I see that potentially happen, I will be selling these new coins along with everyone else.

And what would this mean for longterm potential if we get to double digits again? Isn't this supposed to happen in C wave (death and despair)?
You know it's bad, when the Gavin is selling his bitcoins and investing in stock market, Bitstamp CEO is buying cows and farm.  Grin



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January 14, 2015, 06:27:08 PM
 #2425

By comparing the current events with those of 17th - 18th October 2011, it it possible that the current bounce is a DCB.
In this case, it is possible to retrace to the same ballpark as the minimum. This needs to be watched closely, at some point
it is possible to see panic again and a large dump, if further upward movement is not confirmed.

Unfortunately, the retrace is happening. IMO we'll linger in this price range for several days, possibly even lower.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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January 14, 2015, 06:31:25 PM
 #2426

By comparing the current events with those of 17th - 18th October 2011, it it possible that the current bounce is a DCB.
In this case, it is possible to retrace to the same ballpark as the minimum. This needs to be watched closely, at some point
it is possible to see panic again and a large dump, if further upward movement is not confirmed.

Unfortunately, the retrace is happening. IMO we'll linger in this price range for several days, possibly even lower.

it's either up on Friday or we stay around here or lower for 10 days
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January 14, 2015, 06:33:30 PM
 #2427

Any update on where are we now? Is this the bottom?

Let's put it this way, if $150 isn't the bottom, then god help anyone still holding coins... and hello double digit BTC.

$150 is a really really strong support level, breaching this would mean capitulation. I've even bought some coin at $160-$170, so if I see that potentially happen, I will be selling these new coins along with everyone else.

And what would this mean for longterm potential if we get to double digits again? Isn't this supposed to happen in C wave (death and despair)?
You know it's bad, when the Gavin is selling his bitcoins and investing in stock market, Bitstamp CEO is buying cows and farm.  Grin

A little food for thought from the infamous Charlie Shrem concerning blood & despair: https://twitter.com/CharlieShrem/status/555412241156419585/photo/1
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January 14, 2015, 11:12:59 PM
 #2428

Is this capitulation, Master?
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January 14, 2015, 11:57:12 PM
 #2429

Selling at ~$195 and buying at ~$132

Thoughts on this?

is there any chance that we'll see a retrace up to 240 or something before going further down?
smoothie
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January 15, 2015, 12:29:24 AM
 #2430

Is this the capitulation/bottom everyone has been shouting about? Or is there more  to come?

just lying on the beach thinking about going for a beer  Cool

what beach?

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     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
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                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.                  History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
RyNinDaCleM
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January 15, 2015, 12:36:02 AM
 #2431

Selling at ~$195 and buying at ~$132

Thoughts on this?

is there any chance that we'll see a retrace up to 240 or something before going further down?

Don't you think you're being a little greedy? Tongue
Seriously though, yes there is a possibility of 230's if this is the C of another 4th wave. The rise off the bottom looks more corrective, and with the extended downtrend and lack of a decent pull back, there is the chance that we are still in the corrective move off the bottom. I still see a good chance of lower lows in our future, but maybe not for a few days.

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January 15, 2015, 12:42:00 AM
 #2432

Selling at ~$195 and buying at ~$132

Thoughts on this?

is there any chance that we'll see a retrace up to 240 or something before going further down?

Don't you think you're being a little greedy? Tongue
Seriously though, yes there is a possibility of 230's if this is the C of another 4th wave. The rise off the bottom looks more corrective, and with the extended downtrend and lack of a decent pull back, there is the chance that we are still in the corrective move off the bottom. I still see a good chance of lower lows in our future, but maybe not for a few days.

Maybe we hit $132...wont last very long.

Some people tend to get caught in short squeezes then end up selling too low and buying back higher.

Everyone make your own decisions without blaming anyone else for the outcome.  Smiley

███████████████████████████████████████

            ,╓p@@███████@╗╖,           
        ,p████████████████████N,       
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║██████       Ñ███████████`      ███████
███████         ╩██████Ñ         ███████
███████    ▐▄     ²██╩     a▌    ███████
╢██████    ▐▓█▄          ▄█▓▌    ███████
 ██████    ▐▓▓▓▓▌,     ▄█▓▓▓▌    ██████─
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
    ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─  
     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.                  History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
poncho32
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January 15, 2015, 12:56:44 AM
 #2433

Selling at ~$195 and buying at ~$132

Thoughts on this?

is there any chance that we'll see a retrace up to 240 or something before going further down?

Don't you think you're being a little greedy? Tongue
Seriously though, yes there is a possibility of 230's if this is the C of another 4th wave. The rise off the bottom looks more corrective, and with the extended downtrend and lack of a decent pull back, there is the chance that we are still in the corrective move off the bottom. I still see a good chance of lower lows in our future, but maybe not for a few days.

Maybe we hit $132...wont last very long.

Some people tend to get caught in short squeezes then end up selling too low and buying back higher.

Everyone make your own decisions without blaming anyone else for the outcome.  Smiley

+1

The post below describes a short squeeze but if you read its thread the author isn't against shorts, just warning what can happen.

I have.  And its not pleasant.  In fact, they are extremely vicious.  Without appropriate risk management, they have the ability to wipe you out.

Imagine the Spring ramp repeating itself while you're holding short.  The mentality has settled in with virtually all the Bears that Bitcoin is done and is going to zero.  They are taking their victory laps and cheering their profits.  This type of mentality is just as bad as the speculative bubble, only in reverse.  

I have most unpleasant news for you.  The Squeeze of the Century is coming.  It may not be tomorrow, next month, or even next year, buts its coming and you will be crushed.  

I know the feeling.  You shorts are probably sleeping less well now while you're making profits than you did before.  Thats because deep down you know the protocol has not failed, you know that 99% of the people want Bitcoin but just don't know it yet, you know the developers are still out there and working on improvements, and you know that big money is waiting on the sidelines for the perfect time to buy and buy hard.

Typically the ramps come in the middle of the night.  You wake up and the price has doubled trapping you deeply in the losing trade.  You wait and wait for the price to come back down but it never does as the price moves upwards incessantly to force you to cover.  The pendulum has swung too far to the wrong side.

Just wait.  Its coming...
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January 15, 2015, 01:10:54 AM
 #2434


Maybe we hit $132...wont last very long.

Some people tend to get caught in short squeezes then end up selling too low and buying back higher.

Everyone make your own decisions without blaming anyone else for the outcome.  Smiley

I agree with this. Everyone should be making their own decisions on trades they take. That said, I merely gave a vague idea. "possibly up" and "possibly down". podyx, being a watcher of the numerous EW threads, I'm sure he understands that I'm not saying that we are definitely going to make new lows. Only that it is possible from every standpoint in TA. There is still a helluva lot of indecision in the market. This is tough trading for sure and the whipsaws can ruin you. These are the risks that we as traders take. We're all grown ass men here (a few women too Tongue) so more than able to take our own responsibility for our actions. Smiley

Selling at ~$195 and buying at ~$132

Thoughts on this?

is there any chance that we'll see a retrace up to 240 or something before going further down?

Don't you think you're being a little greedy? Tongue
Seriously though, yes there is a possibility of 230's if this is the C of another 4th wave. The rise off the bottom looks more corrective, and with the extended downtrend and lack of a decent pull back, there is the chance that we are still in the corrective move off the bottom. I still see a good chance of lower lows in our future, but maybe not for a few days.

Maybe we hit $132...wont last very long.

Some people tend to get caught in short squeezes then end up selling too low and buying back higher.

Everyone make your own decisions without blaming anyone else for the outcome.  Smiley

+1

The post below describes a short squeeze but if you read its thread the author isn't against shorts, just warning what can happen.

I have.  And its not pleasant.  In fact, they are extremely vicious.  Without appropriate risk management, they have the ability to wipe you out.

Imagine the Spring ramp repeating itself while you're holding short.  The mentality has settled in with virtually all the Bears that Bitcoin is done and is going to zero.  They are taking their victory laps and cheering their profits.  This type of mentality is just as bad as the speculative bubble, only in reverse. 

I have most unpleasant news for you.  The Squeeze of the Century is coming.  It may not be tomorrow, next month, or even next year, buts its coming and you will be crushed. 

I know the feeling.  You shorts are probably sleeping less well now while you're making profits than you did before.  Thats because deep down you know the protocol has not failed, you know that 99% of the people want Bitcoin but just don't know it yet, you know the developers are still out there and working on improvements, and you know that big money is waiting on the sidelines for the perfect time to buy and buy hard.

Typically the ramps come in the middle of the night.  You wake up and the price has doubled trapping you deeply in the losing trade.  You wait and wait for the price to come back down but it never does as the price moves upwards incessantly to force you to cover.  The pendulum has swung too far to the wrong side.

Just wait.  Its coming...

Nobody was even talking about shorting it down. At least in the original conversation smoothie was replying to. Selling BTC for fiat is not the same as shorting. If the price rises while you're in fiat, you lose nothing except opportunistic gains. You have the ability to wait for the retrace to get in. You are not forced out of your current position as with a short squeeze.

For the record, I have been accumulating for the last few days so I am in no way telling anyone to short nor am I short. Shorting here is the most extreme of risk and the whole idea of trading is to minimize risk for whatever position you take.

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January 15, 2015, 01:18:55 AM
 #2435


................

Selling at ~$195 and buying at ~$132

Thoughts on this?

is there any chance that we'll see a retrace up to 240 or something before going further down?

Don't you think you're being a little greedy? Tongue
Seriously though, yes there is a possibility of 230's if this is the C of another 4th wave. The rise off the bottom looks more corrective, and with the extended downtrend and lack of a decent pull back, there is the chance that we are still in the corrective move off the bottom. I still see a good chance of lower lows in our future, but maybe not for a few days.

Maybe we hit $132...wont last very long.

Some people tend to get caught in short squeezes then end up selling too low and buying back higher.

Everyone make your own decisions without blaming anyone else for the outcome.  Smiley

+1

The post below describes a short squeeze but if you read its thread the author isn't against shorts, just warning what can happen.

I have.  And its not pleasant.  In fact, they are extremely vicious.  Without appropriate risk management, they have the ability to wipe you out.

Imagine the Spring ramp repeating itself while you're holding short.  The mentality has settled in with virtually all the Bears that Bitcoin is done and is going to zero.  They are taking their victory laps and cheering their profits.  This type of mentality is just as bad as the speculative bubble, only in reverse.  

I have most unpleasant news for you.  The Squeeze of the Century is coming.  It may not be tomorrow, next month, or even next year, buts its coming and you will be crushed.  

I know the feeling.  You shorts are probably sleeping less well now while you're making profits than you did before.  Thats because deep down you know the protocol has not failed, you know that 99% of the people want Bitcoin but just don't know it yet, you know the developers are still out there and working on improvements, and you know that big money is waiting on the sidelines for the perfect time to buy and buy hard.

Typically the ramps come in the middle of the night.  You wake up and the price has doubled trapping you deeply in the losing trade.  You wait and wait for the price to come back down but it never does as the price moves upwards incessantly to force you to cover.  The pendulum has swung too far to the wrong side.

Just wait.  Its coming...

Nobody was even talking about shorting it down. At least in the original conversation smoothie was replying to. Selling BTC for fiat is not the same as shorting. If the price rises while you're in fiat, you lose nothing except opportunistic gains. You have the ability to wait for the retrace to get in. You are not forced out of your current position as with a short squeeze.

For the record, I have been accumulating for the last few days so I am in no way telling anyone to short nor am I short. Shorting here is the most extreme of risk and the whole idea of trading is to minimize risk for whatever position you take.

Sorry I misinterpreted what you meant by a short squeeze.
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January 15, 2015, 01:22:38 AM
 #2436

I'd say it's a bottoming behavior, but how far it may go I don't have idea.

I am worry about price is under both daily and weekly bb, so it may accelerate down. Also I don't like latest bearish weekly macd hook.

But ew suggests a bottoming picture.

Latest bottom should be followed by triangle consolidation in a case of continuation.

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January 15, 2015, 12:17:18 PM
 #2437

EURCHF holy fuck...


Turbulence on markets!

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January 15, 2015, 12:23:59 PM
 #2438

EURCHF holy fuck...


Turbulence on markets!
And people say Bitcoin is volatile. Cheesy
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January 15, 2015, 12:45:57 PM
 #2439

Nicely done Swiss CB.



They just completely fucked over their export business. Whatever reason they had, it must be a good one. They next few weeks should be interesting to say the least.




Bro, do you even blockchain?
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January 15, 2015, 12:49:35 PM
 #2440


They just completely fucked over their export business.


And many more people that have loans denominated in CHF, contracts in CHF, hedge funds... Black swan event.



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