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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 935713 times)
prophetx
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December 23, 2014, 06:51:55 AM
 #2321

strange we are going up leading up to the bitcoin bowl i guess
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Tzupy
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December 23, 2014, 10:44:12 AM
 #2322

China still looking somewhat bullish, but with bearish divergences in small time frames.
MFI and SRSI are slowly descending from the overbought area, IMO this uptrend lost momentum.
To confirm upcoming correction, I look for 6h PSAR to flip in China (it did temporarily flip on Bitstmap at the 2k dump).

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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December 25, 2014, 07:43:25 PM
 #2323

The bid side has recovered somewhat, 6h PSAR has flipped to bullish, but 15 min MACD looks bearish.
A quadruple top, yikes. Will there be another dump before a strong rebound, that is the question?

Does a classic double top usually happen before a crash, and a triple top happen before a rally?

Does a quadruple top have significance in TA?

A triple top is also bearish. Breaking support at 305$ would trigger a large dump.
AFAIK there is no quadruple top in TA. But if a breakout succeeds after this, it would look bullish.
I interpret the quadruple top as a temporary inability to break resistance, this can change tomorrow.
The $300~ support level has been tested several times in the past few months (since ~september) and such support appears to be very strong. Breaching this level will probably result in further price declines of at least $40-$50 in the near term
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December 26, 2014, 03:32:16 PM
 #2324

The $300~ support level has been tested several times in the past few months (since ~september) and such support appears to be very strong. Breaching this level will probably result in further price declines of at least $40-$50 in the near term

I think 300 is pretty strong too, but different EW counts leads to suppose a breach to 275 is also probable.

Here is a chart of mine, using EW (I'm beginner in EW analysis so feel free to criticize and give feedback) :
- check https://www.tradingview.com/v/5KWjIxbQ/ for details and more explanations

RyNinDaCleM
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December 26, 2014, 04:08:47 PM
 #2325

The $300~ support level has been tested several times in the past few months (since ~september) and such support appears to be very strong. Breaching this level will probably result in further price declines of at least $40-$50 in the near term

I think 300 is pretty strong too, but different EW counts leads to suppose a breach to 275 is also probable.

Here is a chart of mine, using EW (I'm beginner in EW analysis so feel free to criticize and give feedback) :
- check https://www.tradingview.com/v/5KWjIxbQ/ for details and more explanations



Wave-C is always an impulse, meaning 5 waves and standard impulse rules apply.


As you have your chart labeled with the pink (III), the (IV) actually can drop below the green iii according to the typical retracement of an impulsive wave. After a fifth wave is complete, the correction usually ends in the territory of the 4th wave of one smaller degree. In this case, somewhere between $259 (stamp wave-iii high) and $45 (stamp wave-iv low). It isn't an absolute rule, but it should be expected as an initial target. Since the April high is the 3 to Decembers 5, that is where to look for a bottom.



 

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December 26, 2014, 05:12:50 PM
 #2326

The $300~ support level has been tested several times in the past few months (since ~september) and such support appears to be very strong. Breaching this level will probably result in further price declines of at least $40-$50 in the near term

I think 300 is pretty strong too, but different EW counts leads to suppose a breach to 275 is also probable.

Here is a chart of mine, using EW (I'm beginner in EW analysis so feel free to criticize and give feedback) :
- check https://www.tradingview.com/v/5KWjIxbQ/ for details and more explanations



Wave-C is always an impulse, meaning 5 waves and standard impulse rules apply.


As you have your chart labeled with the pink (III), the (IV) actually can drop below the green iii according to the typical retracement of an impulsive wave. After a fifth wave is complete, the correction usually ends in the territory of the 4th wave of one smaller degree. In this case, somewhere between $259 (stamp wave-iii high) and $45 (stamp wave-iv low). It isn't an absolute rule, but it should be expected as an initial target. Since the April high is the 3 to Decembers 5, that is where to look for a bottom.



Thanks for the feedback RyNinDaCleM, appreciated.

So, if I understand your remarks (please tell me if I summarized it wrong), you pointed 2 things :

- from EW rules my first C target ($300) is incorrect cause wave 5 of smaller degree, labelled (5), should at least go as far as (3)
- from EW rules my second C target (testing again $278 or ultimately $257) is correct - still - my "ultimately" is (from your experience) not correct since C can end up in between III (old ATH) and IV ($85 but lowest point inside this wave is $45). For different reasons I don't see 257 a possible breakable level but thanks for providing a classical initial target ; I didn't know about this.  
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December 26, 2014, 06:53:40 PM
 #2327

where is the master

Frantically getting rid of his Rubles.

So majority feels its gonna go south?

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December 26, 2014, 07:03:37 PM
 #2328

Feels like we need to test 300-305 again. But the honeybadger does as it pleases.




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RyNinDaCleM
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December 26, 2014, 07:42:03 PM
 #2329


Thanks for the feedback RyNinDaCleM, appreciated.

So, if I understand your remarks (please tell me if I summarized it wrong), you pointed 2 things :

- from EW rules my first C target ($300) is incorrect cause wave 5 of smaller degree, labelled (5), should at least go as far as (3)
- from EW rules my second C target (testing again $278 or ultimately $257) is correct - still - my "ultimately" is (from your experience) not correct since C can end up in between III (old ATH) and IV ($85 but lowest point inside this wave is $45). For different reasons I don't see 257 a possible breakable level but thanks for providing a classical initial target ; I didn't know about this.  

Now I can see your yellow (5). All the labels were stacked up on top of each other so it made it difficult to see. That is where the first remark came from. And I should clarify, C is always 5 waves, and always follows impulse rules except if it's an ending diagonal which is still 5 waves in the form of 5 zigzags as you have drawn. So that is valid.

The second remark was more in response to the green note you made on the chart. Maybe I misunderstood it and you weren't saying that it can't go below $259, just that it shouldn't due to fibo targets/trend lines/structures.

Wave-5 does not need to make a new low. This is called truncation and it happens, especially in Bitcoin.
Your counts are fine, I just had to stretch them a bit to see what labels were there. Smiley

realdos
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December 29, 2014, 09:29:22 PM
 #2330

I guess Masterluc will not show up until the price finally reaches sub-200.
thefiniteidea
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December 29, 2014, 10:45:03 PM
 #2331

A bit of nasty speculation for you all...

Bitcoin hits $200 in January  Wink


https://twitter.com/thefiniteidea

14jNCND1PemxxHD17m2gGjScrPHWcVmduP
Tzupy
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December 29, 2014, 11:12:04 PM
 #2332

A bit of nasty speculation for you all...

Bitcoin hits $200 in January  Wink



And why would this be nasty? I would call a 200$ bottom on the bullish side.
However, very short term a small uptrend is possible, even a fake breakout.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
esse83
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December 29, 2014, 11:35:29 PM
 #2333

Any idiot drawing a line can see it will be $250. Follow the major support line. Stop using fancy bs - nobody gives a shit about it anyway, so it wont work.

“Bitcoin is wild and crazy investment that I’m diversifying out of all the time,” - Gavin Andresen
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December 31, 2014, 04:44:35 AM
 #2334

Analysis is the way to keep our mind pleased with forced results. Since the mind is not so easily pleased, so does the analysis continue.

Tzupy
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January 01, 2015, 12:52:13 PM
 #2335

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
Wandererfromthenorth
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January 01, 2015, 12:58:56 PM
 #2336

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.
Where do you see Huobi's total bid sum? Only if you sign up?
I usually use coinigy but it doesn't show the full depth chart for Huobi and OKcoin...
jertsy
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January 01, 2015, 01:06:24 PM
 #2337

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.
Where do you see Huobi's total bid sum? Only if you sign up?
I usually use coinigy but it doesn't show the full depth chart for Huobi and OKcoin...

How come Huobi is not shown in the markets on coinmarketcap?

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets
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January 01, 2015, 01:07:17 PM
 #2338

If this (from coinsight.org) is correct, I don't know, but looks legit:


Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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January 01, 2015, 04:34:14 PM
 #2339

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.

What does bid/ask sum have to do with predicting major movements in price?

Jack shit.

GTFO of here with that useless FUD you worthless troll.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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January 01, 2015, 04:37:09 PM
 #2340

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.

What does bid/ask sum have to do with predicting major movements in price?

Jack shit.

GTFO of here with that useless FUD you worthless troll.
Really now? Over the years, I've found it an invaluable tool.

Also, can you moderate your tone? By contrast of your response, you're certainly more of a troll than he is. Tzupy merely made some observations, and some of them even bullish in nature (so much for "FUD").
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