Analysis

[windjc]

What screams out to me from your chart is this. I guess we will see.

Right. That is the upward trendline that I suggested has not been broken. Although I think people on this thread tend to like straight lines not curvy ones.

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[samurai1200]

* samurai1200 chuckles at a chart without any scales.

[Ducky1]

This better?

[ElectricMucus]

clearer yes
better no

[Zarathustra]

it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.

Sure. I understand the premise. I guess we will see.

If that wedge breaks upward or sideways then up, then what do your charts say?

Wave 5 is it?

it won't.

i'm not even using EW, im using the damped oscillator model, and it is increasingly apparent that we are not yet through the aftershocks of the December crash. this is a correction to the downtrend, which will not be complete until one more large capitulation event. then we may start a new trend.

Ok. We if by large capitulation you mean back to 600 or something I might agree. Otherwise, I look forward to revisiting this post.

please do. and no price targets -- that's a secret but a bottoming out with large volume, with a rapid recovery. a cusp.

oh, hello future forumites!

--arepo

Are you bearish in this thread and bullish in the other one?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=392713.0

[Queeq]

What do you think about this fib? Bounce or not from 831 BTC-e?

[T.Stuart]

it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.

Sure. I understand the premise. I guess we will see.

If that wedge breaks upward or sideways then up, then what do your charts say?

Wave 5 is it?

it won't.

i'm not even using EW, im using the damped oscillator model, and it is increasingly apparent that we are not yet through the aftershocks of the December crash. this is a correction to the downtrend, which will not be complete until one more large capitulation event. then we may start a new trend.

Ok. We if by large capitulation you mean back to 600 or something I might agree. Otherwise, I look forward to revisiting this post.

please do. and no price targets -- that's a secret but a bottoming out with large volume, with a rapid recovery. a cusp.

oh, hello future forumites!

--arepo

Careful windjc... Do you see what he did there? I get the strong suspicion Arepo is starting to sweat! 

[arepo]

Are you bearish in this thread and bullish in the other one?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=392713.0

that thread was some short-term analysis predicting a rise from the low $700s to $800. that was the extent of that model. one can be "bullish" and "bearish" on different time scales, of course, which seems to be the misunderstanding here.

[Kramerc]

This is some serious business. Even though the positive trend looks compelling, I still don't think we're out of the woods. Not until the China situation is either resolved or cooling down. I know I am taking a big chance, but I just can't go against my gut feeling that another drop is imminent.

[T.Stuart]

This is some serious business. Even though the positive trend looks compelling, I still don't think we're out of the woods. Not until the China situation is either resolved or cooling down. I know I am taking a big chance, but I just can't go against my gut feeling that another drop is imminent.

With the way things are there is no clear short-term Chinese solution. Read yesterday's thread: A Chinese look at the situation in China

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=397614.0

Based on the OP, my feeling is a moderately slow (several months) move into Bitcoin becoming a black market commodity in China. I have said that I think they won't ban it, but according to the writer, zhangweiwu, if the Chinese get over-enthusiastic then this could cause problems!

But this in no way means less interest in China.

We appear to be leading the prices more often now so that is something.

[oda.krell]

Are (some of) you guys still trying to figure out which exact wave count to use to make sense of luc's "very long bear market" prediction?

Did it occur to you that, even under the assumption that TA works (and I *do* assume it does), sometimes the best (in the sense of: accurate and certain) result your TA can give you is "outcome unclear, try again tomorrow"?

What I mean is that to me it seems foolish to try to fit the current situation into a rigid mould. Yes, I am also aware of the historic precedent that ATH corrections simply don't finish that quickly. At the same time, you'll have a hard time explaining the current uptrend away. Maybe it won't last. But don't dismiss what happens because it doesn't fit what you expect.

[...]

This chart will help to explain my point better:

Good analysis, in principle. Thanks for posting.

I see two problems with it though: (1) the "corrective" part is by now substantially outlasting the "trending" part. At some point one will have to concede that the "corrective" part becomes the trend. (2) Granted, volume is low, but even a cursory glance reveals that, in the past 10 days, volume has been substantially higher on the upward movements than on the downward movements (2h and 6h views on mtgox, and to a lesser degree, bitstamp, show what I mean quite nicely).

In summary: I remain "agnostic" about this correction. A lot of historical data suggests we'll be going down again in the near future, or at least won't continue going up until a final capitulation, but right now, there's quite a bit of evidence the current (upwards) trend has some staying power, and that we'll see a historic first of an extremely shortened post-ATH correction (i.e. much shorter correction than run-up).

[T.Stuart]

The thing is I don't think the TA so far has accommodated virality, the effect of bottlenecks at the exchanges, etc.
I've been making posts to this effect for a few days now.
It's getting to the point where I would be really very surprised if this bubble plays out anything like last summer. It's more like a pimple on the bubble to come!

[windjc]

Are (some of) you guys still trying to figure out which exact wave count to use to make sense of luc's "very long bear market" prediction?

Did it occur to you that, even under the assumption that TA works (and I *do* assume it does), sometimes the best (in the sense of: accurate and certain) result your TA can give you is "outcome unclear, try again tomorrow"?

What I mean is that to me it seems foolish to try to fit the current situation into a rigid mould. Yes, I am also aware of the historic precedent that ATH corrections simply don't finish that quickly. At the same time, you'll have a hard time explaining the current uptrend away. Maybe it won't last. But don't dismiss what happens because it doesn't fit what you expect.

[...]

This chart will help to explain my point better:

Good analysis, in principle. Thanks for posting.

I see two problems with it though: (1) the "corrective" part is by now substantially outlasting the "trending" part. At some point one will have to concede that the "corrective" part becomes the trend. (2) Granted, volume is low, but even a cursory glance reveals that, in the past 10 days, volume has been substantially higher on the upward movements than on the downward movements (2h and 6h views on mtgox, and to a lesser degree, bitstamp, show what I mean quite nicely).

In summary: I remain "agnostic" about this correction. A lot of historical data suggests we'll be going down again in the near future, or at least won't continue going up until a final capitulation, but right now, there's quite a bit of evidence the current (upwards) trend has some staying power, and that we'll see a historic first of an extremely shortened post-ATH correction (i.e. much shorter correction than run-up).

Nice points. Eloquently stated.

[Bagatell]

How come there isn't more attention paid to the fact that in traditional markets TA illustrates the ebbs and flows of an already mostly saturated market, and in Bitcoin, the market is just commencing the saturation process.

As a nooBTC I'd like the answer to this too. 

[windjc]

How come there isn't more attention paid to the fact that in traditional markets TA illustrates the ebbs and flows of an already mostly saturated market, and in Bitcoin, the market is just commencing the saturation process.

There are tens of thousands of back-logged applications across all exchanges, still, from the ATH, representing first-time buyers eagerly awaiting the opportunity to purchase their stash.  TA for Bitcoin should be more focused on things like new account activity, new account waiting lists, transfer volume etc, and less about the traditional indicators of price movement. 

After all, in time, the "price" will likely become varied across exchanges, methods (online vs in-person), legitimacy (regulated vs black-markets) etc.

Most importantly, let's not forget how this works - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ

Now, to $2k. 

Its a valid point. The thing is that the things you list are more fundamentals than TA. I agree that fundamentals should be strongly considered.

You have to understand that TA being used in bitcoin charting is the same TA used for commodities and stocks.  To a certain extend TA charts human trading behavior and therefore can give a picture on Bitcoin trading and at times can be deadly accurate. However, as bitcoin is not a stock or commodity, TA is often grossly inaccurate in its predictions.

[lebing]

How come there isn't more attention paid to the fact that in traditional markets TA illustrates the ebbs and flows of an already mostly saturated market, and in Bitcoin, the market is just commencing the saturation process.

There are tens of thousands of back-logged applications across all exchanges, still, from the ATH, representing first-time buyers eagerly awaiting the opportunity to purchase their stash.  TA for Bitcoin should be more focused on things like new account activity, new account waiting lists, transfer volume etc, and less about the traditional indicators of price movement. 

After all, in time, the "price" will likely become varied across exchanges, methods (online vs in-person), legitimacy (regulated vs black-markets) etc.

Most importantly, let's not forget how this works - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ

Now, to $2k. 

This is true… however there are so many early adopters who are now whales that TA becomes a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. This next week, as previously mentioned, I believe will illustrate who will win the fight for whether we have a final capitulation or not. At this point my bet is on an anaemic bearish capitulation with many bear tears as it will not go nearly as low as hoped for before going up and not looking back. There is simply far too much movement with the financial world getting involved now to be ignored.

[zby]

The Bitstamp wedge (bearish pattern):


Now the upper boundary slightly broken.  Not definitively - but there are many examples from the past that bearish wedges don't work in bitcoin. On the other hand the previous examples I remember are from the bullish runs and were probably the effect of new money entering the exchanges, now we are in a more bearish situation and a rally on weekend is not related to new money because there is no new money on weekends.

[Bagatell]

The Bitstamp wedge (bearish pattern):


Now the upper boundary slightly broken.  Not definitively - but there are many examples from the past that bearish wedges don't work in bitcoin. On the other hand the previous examples I remember are from the bullish runs and were probably the effect of new money entering the exchanges, now we are in a more bearish situation and a rally on weekend is not related to new money because there is no new money on weekends.

Slightly broken? 

[ft73]

Slightly broken? 

I'm wondering what it means too. Either it's broken or not.
I clearly see the former case.

[samurai1200]

Yes, slightly broken. Meaning he could sneeze and the angle of the upper bound could change, making the wedge not broken at all.

Channels are an indication of trend and sentiment, not trading law.