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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916338 times)
hdbuck
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October 24, 2014, 10:19:29 PM
 #2101

Masters 17months bear market well under way.
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October 25, 2014, 03:57:43 AM
 #2102

After about 4 days this band will start to collapse, so we may still see a sideways movings within 3-6 days.



Daily bands started to contract. Further direction resolution is near, bullish count harmed much.

myself
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October 25, 2014, 03:57:56 PM
 #2103


Daily bands started to contract. Further direction resolution is near, bullish count harmed much.
the 30k sell on bearstamp is likely to be in weaker hands so there is plenty of ammo to turn daily volume red




Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
N12
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October 25, 2014, 04:03:07 PM
 #2104

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
sumantso
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October 26, 2014, 03:43:44 PM
Last edit: October 27, 2014, 05:36:10 PM by sumantso
 #2105

After about 4 days this band will start to collapse, so we may still see a sideways movings within 3-6 days.

-snip-

Daily bands started to contract. Further direction resolution is near, bullish count harmed much.

Uh oh, not good. Sadly I am in BTC, maybe will have to pour real money in now; will certainly do that if it drops below $300.

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October 26, 2014, 05:43:42 PM
 #2106

For those who believe in the bearish scenario (which would be invalidated by a strong break of 420$ resistance), here is a possible unfolding,
a "replay" of the August drop, only taking about 6 times longer, that's why I used 1h for August and 6h for current charts (current chart may need to be extended).




Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
BootstrapCoinDev
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October 26, 2014, 06:25:11 PM
 #2107

As savers, investors or speculators, ALL we need to know is shown on http://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/

Select BTC vs. USD or BTC vs. XAU (gold), and you get the chart plots.  If you go to the Historical Rates tab, you can create custom charts.

The point is, "There's money in them there Bitcoin hills!"  In fact, BTC kicked Gold's ass.  Big Time!!!*  Which is why I'm re-balancing my portfolio to start buying BTC (after next Dip).
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October 26, 2014, 06:55:04 PM
 #2108

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
BrightAnarchist
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October 26, 2014, 09:55:02 PM
 #2109

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

You never know - if Bitcoin falls an additionally from here and he buys them back cheaper, he's going to look like he has smart hands.

Don't assume you know the future.
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October 26, 2014, 10:07:54 PM
 #2110

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

You never know - if Bitcoin falls an additionally from here and he buys them back cheaper, he's going to look like he has smart hands.

Don't assume you know the future.
I don't know the future, but I do know the past (obviously, he sold at the very least into a local bottom), and we can infer that this person had no experience in trading given that he decided to sell everything at one single exchange (Bitstamp had a large price differential to the other exchanges) and the way he did it.
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October 27, 2014, 10:09:46 AM
 #2111

Bitcoin had a nice rally from 300 to 400 but now we are back to what it has been doing best since January a continuation of it's decline.

Currently 340 acts as a base of support while 360 seems to have settled for resistance at least on one exchange Bitstamp. I see this declining in the coming weeks because the market failed to sustain 400 while only a weak attempt at 420 was made. Keep an eye out on the 340 base if this gets taken out and we hold under this I see 250 coming within weeks or a month.

The issue here is a matter of volume the market doesn't have enough to sustain and hold any decent rallies as traders look to take profit. In the good old days traders would simply buy and sell Bitcoins to one another now however traders could care less if Bitcoin rises or falls because money can be made on either side of the trade with short selling.

796, okcoin futures, Bitfinex just to name a few have now made it profitable for traders to be bearish on Bitcoin. You need to take note that in a futures market with high liquidity it has a bearing on the price of an underlying asset in this case Bitcoin so this could have an impact on the market price.

The current Bearish sentiment is 250/190 and if a miracle in bullish volume were to happen 420.  The weekly s1 pivot is 340 and the r1 is 380, we have now done the 50% retracement so where traders decide to go next will be interesting in the coming days.
BrightAnarchist
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October 28, 2014, 12:54:11 AM
 #2112

I don't know the future, but I do know the past (obviously, he sold at the very least into a local bottom), and we can infer that this person had no experience in trading given that he decided to sell everything at one single exchange (Bitstamp had a large price differential to the other exchanges) and the way he did it.

This is true
Tzupy
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October 28, 2014, 02:15:44 PM
 #2113

A comparison of the October 2011 chart with the current one tells me that the bulls should test
and break the 420$ resistance about the 5th - 6th November, in order to assure that 275$ was THE bottom.
Failure to do so would increase the chances for the bearish scenario, in which 275$ won't hold and my
current best guesstimate would be about 180$ (don't ask why, multiple reasons, including a gut feeling).




Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
p2pbucks
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October 28, 2014, 02:44:54 PM
 #2114

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  Roll Eyes
lebing
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October 28, 2014, 04:34:59 PM
 #2115

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  Roll Eyes

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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October 28, 2014, 11:34:41 PM
 #2116

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  Roll Eyes

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.
masterluc
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October 31, 2014, 07:48:50 AM
 #2117

Guess what

ft73
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October 31, 2014, 09:17:46 AM
 #2118

Guess what



You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price" Smiley Smiley

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos Smiley
CoolStoryBro
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October 31, 2014, 09:31:10 AM
 #2119


You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price" Smiley Smiley

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos Smiley

any way to get the same graphs on longer scale?
thefiniteidea
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October 31, 2014, 02:45:36 PM
 #2120

Guess what



You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price" Smiley Smiley

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos Smiley


Lucif, I'm not sure how to use that site, but I'd be curious to see what the correlation is with DDD

https://twitter.com/thefiniteidea

14jNCND1PemxxHD17m2gGjScrPHWcVmduP
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