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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1933544 times)
Peter R
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August 25, 2014, 12:27:10 AM
 #11081

Housing is a strange animal because it's the only consumer purchase where buyers want to see the price rise. Every other household item like cars, gas, power, household goods, food, rent etc, consumers hate to see price increases. And especially in 2nd hand goods.
People have been lied to and brainwashed by the mortgage banking industry.

It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  

This stubbornness in people's belief systems makes me wonder how big a bubble bitcoin could become if the tide turned in its favour.  If bitcoin mania really took hold, all at once the average person will believe that it's inevitable that bitcoin is destined to be the next global currency, and pundits will justify $1 million + valuations.  Prices far below that will seem cheap and the coins will get bought and bought until the mining supply smacks us back to reality.  And the crazy thing is this cycle could happen again and again until the prophecy is fulfilled.

Bitcoin could result in the largest wealth transfer in the history of mankind.  It's possible, and in fact more likely than not IMO, that the biggest waves are still ahead of us.  There's already 200 ATMs deployed across the world (199 more than during the last growth spurt), Circle will soon permit people to purchase bitcoin instantly with a credit card, and the launch of COIN will open up that largest USD/BTC gateway yet.  Once this infrastructure is in place, all it will take is for a few in the herd to start to run and a great stampede could begin.    

What would happen if 21 million people decided to buy a bitcoin at the same time?


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August 25, 2014, 12:44:55 AM
 #11082

Housing is a strange animal because it's the only consumer purchase where buyers want to see the price rise. Every other household item like cars, gas, power, household goods, food, rent etc, consumers hate to see price increases. And especially in 2nd hand goods.
People have been lied to and brainwashed by the mortgage banking industry.

It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  

This stubbornness in people's belief systems makes me wonder how big a bubble bitcoin could become if the tide turned in its favour.  If bitcoin mania really took hold, all at once the average person will believe that it's inevitable that bitcoin is destined to be the next global currency, and pundits will justify $1 million + valuations.  Prices far below that will seem cheap and the coins will get bought and bought until the mining supply smacks us back to reality.  And the crazy thing is this cycle could happen again and again until the prophecy is fulfilled.

Bitcoin could result in the largest wealth transfer in the history of mankind.  It's possible, and in fact more likely than not IMO, that the biggest waves are still ahead of us.  There's already 200 ATMs deployed across the world (199 more than during the last growth spurt), Circle will soon permit people to purchase bitcoin instantly with a credit card, and the launch of COIN will open up that largest USD/BTC gateway yet.  Once this infrastructure is in place, all it will take is for a few in the herd to start to run and a great stampede could begin.    

What would happen if 21 million people decided to buy a bitcoin at the same time?



I think a majority of people who hold bitcoins already believe in that story. Of course, if a vast majority of people consider bitcoin as an investment (like they consider housing) bitcoin prices would shoot up.

 

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cypherdoc
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August 25, 2014, 12:58:24 AM
 #11083

It'll probably take a break in the gold market to get the ball rolling.
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August 25, 2014, 12:59:57 AM
 #11084


It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  
...

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing.

I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one.

Peter R
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August 25, 2014, 01:00:24 AM
 #11085

I think a majority of people who hold bitcoins already believe in that story.

I wonder about that.  I consider it one possible story among many.  And I do my best (and probably fail miserably) to objectively assess the probability that the story unfolds in the way I just told.  

But there's something strange that happens when a story gets repeated enough.  The story becomes truth and it's no longer even considered a story.  A society cannot recognize its own myths.  

It's like the myth of money itself.  In discussions about bitcoin, I often get asked "why can't we just do what bitcoin does using real money instead?"  These people haven't even asked themselves what money is.  They just grew up to a certain story; the possibility that the story isn't true isn't even on their radar.  It's the WYSIATI phenomenon (what you see is all there is).  

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cypherdoc
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August 25, 2014, 01:03:12 AM
 #11086


It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  
...

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing.

I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one.


Actually, if you believe Bitcoin is destined to replace fiat, then you should be buying a house. After all, you do it with a loan.
adamstgBit
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August 25, 2014, 01:04:24 AM
 #11087

It'll probably take a break in the gold market to get the ball rolling.

let it drop!  Grin

adamstgBit
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August 25, 2014, 01:05:09 AM
 #11088


It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  
...

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing.

I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one.


Actually, if you believe Bitcoin is destined to replace the usd, then you should be buying a house. After all, you do it with a loan.

believing your own beliefs as fact is DANGEROUS. so no.

i say this and i bought a house in 2011 and then bought 25$ of bitcoin because i was broke at the time.

lol fuck my life.

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August 25, 2014, 01:10:17 AM
 #11089


It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  
...

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing.

I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one.


Actually, if you believe Bitcoin is destined to replace the usd, then you should be buying a house. After all, you do it with a loan.

believing your own beliefs as fact is DANGEROUS. so no.

i say this and i bought a house in 2011 and then bought 25$ of bitcoin because i was broke at the time.

lol fuck my life.

Mind you, I'm not saying buy a house right now as there are some signs its rolling but the long term point I was making still holds, IF you believe fiat is doomed.
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August 25, 2014, 01:12:03 AM
 #11090

It'll probably take a break in the gold market to get the ball rolling.

let it drop!  Grin

Although a move by gold investors could easily transform the bitcoin market, only a tiny percentage of investors hold PMs in their portfolios. I would much rather see the other 99% (or whatever figure it actually is) buy into BTC or it will remain as obscure as gold.
adamstgBit
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August 25, 2014, 01:13:18 AM
 #11091


It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  
...

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing.

I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one.


Actually, if you believe Bitcoin is destined to replace the usd, then you should be buying a house. After all, you do it with a loan.

believing your own beliefs as fact is DANGEROUS. so no.

i say this and i bought a house in 2011 and then bought 25$ of bitcoin because i was broke at the time.

lol fuck my life.

Mind you, I'm not saying buy a house right now as there are some signs its rolling but the long term point I was making still holds, IF you believe fiat is doomed.

fiat is designed to lose 90% of its value every 50-100 years.

doom is coming.

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August 25, 2014, 01:17:24 AM
 #11092

It'll probably take a break in the gold market to get the ball rolling.

let it drop!  Grin

Although a move by gold investors could easily transform the bitcoin market, only a tiny percentage of investors hold PMs in their portfolios. I would much rather see the other 99% (or whatever figure it actually is) buy into BTC or it will remain as obscure as gold.

BTC offers so much more then gold. and now with all these big names accepting it, it will surely not be as obscure as gold. wtf is taking so long? anything below 10K is dirt cheep!

buy Buy BUY!!!

Peter R
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August 25, 2014, 01:24:56 AM
 #11093

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent?

But everybody pays rent.  You either pay it to yourself (in lieu of the money you would receive from a tenant), or you pay it to a landlord.  In an efficient market, it shouldn't really make a difference whether you buy or rent.  The fact that it has made a difference (and a huge difference at that) shows how out of whack the housing market has become over the last few decades.

I also don't think it's true that long term housing can only go up. Shiller has over a century of evidence to refute this:




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adamstgBit
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August 25, 2014, 01:28:49 AM
 #11094

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent?

But everybody pays rent.  You either pay it to yourself (in lieu of the money you would receive from a tenant), or you pay it to a landlord.  In an efficient market, it shouldn't really make a difference whether you buy or rent.  The fact that it has made a difference (and a huge difference at that) shows how out of whack the housing market has become over the last few decades.

I also don't think it's true that long term housing can only go up. Shiller has over a century of evidence to refute this:



I think the statement "housing is a good investment" is a myth that started with the baby boomer generation because this is the only generation that the statement has been unequivocally true for.  

if i rent for 25years i end with nothing.
if i buy and pay mortgage for 25years i end with a house.

who in there right mind would rent?
who cares what the market is doing?
BUY BUY BUY!

Peter R
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August 25, 2014, 01:31:42 AM
 #11095


if i rent for 25years i end with nothing.
if i buy and pay mortgage for 25years i end with a house.

who in there right mind would rent?


For people who will spend all of their money in either case, it's definitely better to buy than to rent.  A mortgage is a forced savings plan. Building wealth while renting probably requires a different kind of discipline (but if it's cheaper to rent than to buy you will come out ahead by renting 25 years down the road all else being equal).  

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adamstgBit
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August 25, 2014, 01:33:17 AM
 #11096

if i rent for 25years i end with nothing.
if i buy and pay mortgage for 25years i end with a house.

who in there right mind would rent?

If renting is a fraction of the cost of buying, you could use the extra money to enjoy a higher standard of living for those 25 years.

Maintaining a home can also be quite expensive (ignoring the purchase cost).

but living in a really expenvice house =  higher standard of living

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August 25, 2014, 01:35:36 AM
 #11097

I don't have any real estate but there are some nice condos around the world in some lovely locations that run about the same as buying a parking spot in big cities. But if rents in those places are also very low, it's still not very compelling for me to buy. I just spent a few weeks in Vancouver and that is one beautiful city. I wouldn't expect to see any big price increases there in the near future but if the chinese and taiwanese keep buying, prices probably won't come down too much either.
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August 25, 2014, 02:16:55 AM
 #11098

House prices have become monetised over the last 1-2 decades as the options for good savings vehicles (store of value) immune from inflation, tax grabs, regulations (and sundry other rent-seeking) have diminished. As has collectable art, vintage vehicles, antiques, etc. The fiat mis-management has manifest itself in innumerable ways that will only become fully visible when looked back from a stable economy at some point in the future.

Coralling everyone into stocks and bonds as the only "viable investments" via the pension system rorts and trying to lock them in there is backfiring massively when we look at how poorly the wider economies of the west are progressing.

A good form of money that can act better than housing out of the grasp of the rent seekers could add to the deflation in a housing price collapse as RE demonitises.

Peter R
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August 25, 2014, 02:39:32 AM
 #11099

...
A good form of money that can act better than housing out of the grasp of the rent seekers could add to the deflation in a housing price collapse as RE demonitises.

It's interesting to imagine what the equilibrium price levels of things like an apartment in New York or a house in Vancouver would be in a bitcoin economy.  Like you implied, the economic dislocations caused by monetary policy have monetized RE over the last 1-2 decades (and probably for much longer to a lesser extent), and it's impossible to know the true scale of these distortions.

If bitcoin can aid the movement towards disintermediation, decentralization, and deregulation, I don't see why the cost of commodity housing for the masses wouldn't fall significantly.  
 

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August 25, 2014, 03:17:58 AM
 #11100

if i rent for 25years i end with nothing.
if i buy and pay mortgage for 25years i end with a house.

who in there right mind would rent?

If renting is a fraction of the cost of buying, you could use the extra money to enjoy a higher standard of living for those 25 years.

Maintaining a home can also be quite expensive (ignoring the purchase cost).

but living in a really expenvice house =  higher standard of living

Adam, I'm starting to wonder exactly how old you are.  Because if you have lived life long enough (to at least age 40-ish), and have spent some amount of time in an "expensive" house, you would understand the realized absurdity of that statement.  When you experience it for yourself, you'll finally "get it".
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