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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805742 times)
adamstgBit
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August 25, 2014, 02:23:17 PM
 #11141

if i rent for 25years i end with nothing.
if i buy and pay mortgage for 25years i end with a house.

who in there right mind would rent?

If renting is a fraction of the cost of buying, you could use the extra money to enjoy a higher standard of living for those 25 years.

Maintaining a home can also be quite expensive (ignoring the purchase cost).

but living in a really expenvice house =  higher standard of living

Adam, I'm starting to wonder exactly how old you are.  Because if you have lived life long enough (to at least age 40-ish), and have spent some amount of time in an "expensive" house, you would understand the realized absurdity of that statement.  When you experience it for yourself, you'll finally "get it".

i have a tiny condo

wana trade?

i want to "get it"

BS a nice house doesn't improve standard of living, BS


There is nothing wrong with owning a house.  Just buy an inexpensive one with low upkeep, and as work hard and as fast as possible to own it outright.  Just like 6-7 year financial loans for cars are pure evil, so are 30-year mortgages.  It doesn't matter what great interest rate you get from the bank, they and the rest of life OWNS you if you are locked into high debt.  The first 10-15 yrs of a mortgage is pretty much all interest paid back to the bank first, and nowadays most people don't stay in their first or even second home nearly that long.  Not to mention all the "upgrades" and sunk/hidden costs that they never recoupe.

I would take a condo that I owned outright, over a financed house that was owning ME any day.

agreed,
i could try to argue that as long as the house appreciates faster than the interest rate it make sense to borrow like mad and buy a massive house, but i don't actually believe that...

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cypherdoc
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August 25, 2014, 04:15:05 PM
 #11142

housing is just like any other asset you may choose to invest in.  you gotta be smart about it.

if you are, you'll reap the benefits.
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August 25, 2014, 04:26:24 PM
 #11143

crap!

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August 25, 2014, 05:04:48 PM
 #11144

House prices have become monetised over the last 1-2 decades as the options for good savings vehicles (store of value) immune from inflation, tax grabs, regulations (and sundry other rent-seeking) have diminished. As has collectable art, vintage vehicles, antiques, etc. The fiat mis-management has manifest itself in innumerable ways that will only become fully visible when looked back from a stable economy at some point in the future.

Exactly this. What always strikes me about the buy vs. rent discussion is those who say "always buy" are not taking into consideration the reasons housing has done so well.

For the lower and middle classes housing has served 2 roles, it has acted as the ONLY inflation protected asset to counter the FED's printing press and has acted as the ONLY method to leverage and benefit from the FED's financialization wave to expand credit everywhere (which enabled housing to grow faster than inflation). Additionally, for the government housing has acted as a forced savings plan.

Whether or not housing (in general) will continue to be a smart investment, largely depends on your views regarding the government's ability to continue these trends. Personally I think the expansion of credit cycle is largely tapped out, and the FED will try to only use the printing press to counter the loss of credit growth. In this scenario renting and saving the extra monthly savings intelligently can do very well compared to leveraging 5x your net worth in a single asset class.

My father in law is a multi millionaire having bought primarily commercial real estate starting back then in LA.  Now his kids get a handsome annuity check monthly. It's amazing how long these trends keep going.

Great for him, I hope he did it by understanding the new environment he was in and leveraging that to the hilt.

My worry is so many in the following generations assume these trends will go on forever and blindly leverage to the hilt in housing. Most of my peers have done so, they are so "house poor" with CA prices that they have zero ability to create savings outside of housing. This is bad IMHO.

Lastly, if you believe Bitcoin will succeed as an escape from centralized money, bringing to a dead stop central bank expansion of the money supply (no more printing and no more bailouts of leveraged banks), then housing in terms of price:income will NOT do well compared to today's valuations.
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August 25, 2014, 05:10:59 PM
 #11145

oh crap!

RGLD, the premier gold royalty company:

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August 25, 2014, 05:16:20 PM
 #11146

House prices have become monetised over the last 1-2 decades as the options for good savings vehicles (store of value) immune from inflation, tax grabs, regulations (and sundry other rent-seeking) have diminished. As has collectable art, vintage vehicles, antiques, etc. The fiat mis-management has manifest itself in innumerable ways that will only become fully visible when looked back from a stable economy at some point in the future.

Exactly this. What always strikes me about the buy vs. rent discussion is those who say "always buy" are not taking into consideration the reasons housing has done so well.

For the lower and middle classes housing has served 2 roles, it has acted as the ONLY inflation protected asset to counter the FED's printing press and has acted as the ONLY method to leverage and benefit from the FED's financialization wave to expand credit everywhere (which enabled housing to grow faster than inflation). Additionally, for the government housing has acted as a forced savings plan.

Whether or not housing (in general) will continue to be a smart investment, largely depends on your views regarding the government's ability to continue these trends. Personally I think the expansion of credit cycle is largely tapped out, and the FED will try to only use the printing press to counter the loss of credit growth. In this scenario renting and saving the extra monthly savings intelligently can do very well compared to leveraging 5x your net worth in a single asset class.

My father in law is a multi millionaire having bought primarily commercial real estate starting back then in LA.  Now his kids get a handsome annuity check monthly. It's amazing how long these trends keep going.

Great for him, I hope he did it by understanding the new environment he was in and leveraging that to the hilt.

My worry is so many in the following generations assume these trends will go on forever and blindly leverage to the hilt in housing. Most of my peers have done so, they are so "house poor" with CA prices that they have zero ability to create savings outside of housing. This is bad IMHO.

Lastly, if you believe Bitcoin will succeed as an escape from centralized money, bringing to a dead stop central bank expansion of the money supply (no more printing and no more bailouts of leveraged banks), then housing in terms of price:income will NOT do well compared to today's valuations.

i agree.  he bought these properties back in the 60's & 70's using only his cultural perspective that "property (RE) will always do well".  auspiciously for him, that was the exact RIGHT time in US history to have this attitude.

interestingly, if Bitcoin only holds steady from here, i will have done better than him.

edit: for alot less work and headache. such is the power of the network effect of money.
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August 25, 2014, 05:39:59 PM
 #11147

mining etf's set to break support yet again following SLW, RGLD and silver.  this would be disastrous.

with just a 5% move of the $8.2 trillion gold market moving to Bitcoin, we could ignite the next logarithmic ramp.
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August 25, 2014, 05:50:21 PM
 #11148

thing is, u can see it happening, slow motion.  esp w/ this thing going on:

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August 25, 2014, 06:14:45 PM
 #11149

"interestingly, if Bitcoin only holds steady from here, i will have done better than him.

edit: for alot less work and headache. such is the power of the network effect of money."

Cypherdoc, because he is/was an astute investor, and given his son in law can advise him better than most about btc, what percentage of his portfolio is now invested in bitcoins?
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August 25, 2014, 06:15:27 PM
 #11150

ok, just had to post this pic.  that's badass:



http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/188479-astronauts-find-living-organisms-clinging-to-the-international-space-station-and-arent-sure-how-they-got-there
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August 25, 2014, 06:32:24 PM
 #11151

To da moon  Tongue

BTC: 1K9atu5zgz7izCMAynk5adBJ8Qn2YgS6nT
cypherdoc
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August 25, 2014, 06:38:29 PM
 #11152

Jackson Hole:

"Blinder said there’s a “vigorous debate” among economists and investors about how sluggish the labor market still is. Its surprising strength suggests “we are closer to Fed liftoff than we were a year ago” and rates probably will be increased early next year, he said.

Interviews with other Fed officials in Jackson Hole showed a widening split over the outlook.
"

"Unlike Yellen, and with euro-area unemployment at 11.5 percent, Draghi said ECB policy makers “stand ready to adjust our policy stance further” after the 18-nation economy stalled in the second quarter."

"In a sign of mounting concern over too-low inflation, he said investor bets on inflation had “exhibited significant declines at all horizons” this month. Price gains are running at less than a quarter of the ECB’s goal of just below 2 percent, potentially risking a deflationary spiral if consumers and companies pull back spending in anticipation of even weaker price pressures.

Draghi’s remarks reinforced speculation that the ECB will eventually start quantitative easing even after acting in June to cut interest rates to record lows and line up more cheap loans for banks."


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-24/jackson-hole-message-is-labor-markets-don-t-justify-higher-rates.html
cypherdoc
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August 25, 2014, 06:43:14 PM
 #11153

"interestingly, if Bitcoin only holds steady from here, i will have done better than him.

edit: for alot less work and headache. such is the power of the network effect of money."

Cypherdoc, because he is/was an astute investor, and given his son in law can advise him better than most about btc, what percentage of his portfolio is now invested in bitcoins?


he's too old and set in his ways as an immigrant.  he, unfortunately, could never begin to understand Bitcoin.

he never listened to me about gold so i've never talked to him about Bitcoin.  he does see that gold could've been good for him, though, at the time.  but now it's too late for that game.
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August 25, 2014, 06:57:20 PM
 #11154

Buying a home at any time in the last 50 years would've been a good move except in years 2007, 2008:

www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf

My father in law is a multi millionaire having bought primarily commercial real estate starting back then in LA.  Now his kids get a handsome annuity check monthly. It's amazing how long these trends keep going.

Dammit.  I did NOT choose my parents very well.
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August 25, 2014, 06:57:23 PM
 #11155

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/503979254057799680
cypherdoc
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August 25, 2014, 07:00:52 PM
 #11156

Buying a home at any time in the last 50 years would've been a good move except in years 2007, 2008:

www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf

My father in law is a multi millionaire having bought primarily commercial real estate starting back then in LA.  Now his kids get a handsome annuity check monthly. It's amazing how long these trends keep going.

Dammit.  I did NOT choose my parents very well.

well, it's not like i get any of that.  he set up a bypass trust where all his inheritance will go to his grand kids.
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August 25, 2014, 07:09:05 PM
 #11157

10 yr chart:  what of volume on the Dow?  terrible:

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August 25, 2014, 07:35:10 PM
 #11158

most that volume is the fed and quant traders.. seems like we are coming to a textbook no demand situation in volume analysis.
rocks
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August 25, 2014, 07:36:38 PM
 #11159

Cypherdoc, because he is/was an astute investor, and given his son in law can advise him better than most about btc, what percentage of his portfolio is now invested in bitcoins?

I'm curious in this too, because this is something I've recently started to struggle with.

FDR so effectively sold previous generations on the need for government managed money to "save" us and that nothing worked before he banned gold ownership (despite the fact the US prospered in the 1800s and grew like China is doing today), that conversations on topics challenging the FED almost seem as if you are arguing for the antichrist.

My own father is so mentally tied to the FED that I'm not even sure how to even bring Bitcoin up as a discussion topic with him without a crazy negative reaction. This mindset was drilled into him by his parents who lived through FDR's re-education.

Edit: Nevermind, just saw you answered that in the latest posts. Looks like we are in the same boat. I'm contemplating trying to introduce bitcoin some point soon, will report later on if it was successful or not.....
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August 25, 2014, 07:43:07 PM
 #11160

most that volume is the fed and quant traders.. seems like we are coming to a textbook no demand situation in volume analysis.

i know.

so how do you remain so bullish in the face of this?
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