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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804714 times)
justusranvier
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September 21, 2014, 12:35:19 PM
 #12481

It always surprises me how common this line of reasoning is (I'm referring to the OP in the linked thread), even among those who've been involved with bitcoin for a while.
It's been going on ever since GPU mining started.

Nobody really likes watching their profit margins shrink because of competition, no matter how inevitable it is, or how beneficial it is for an economy as a whole.

There's always some group of people in any economic situation who believe they deserve their profit margins forever, and will appeal to any external force they can contact in order to keep the playing field tilted towards them.

Taxi drivers try to get the state to ban Uber and Lyft, and bitcoin miners invent scrypt mining and PoS.
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molecular
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September 21, 2014, 02:02:16 PM
 #12482


Also interesting in this context: Proof of Idle

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notme
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September 21, 2014, 02:04:24 PM
 #12483

c) They believe that transaction fees will have to go up, to be more expensive than current transaction costs in the bank system. This should be the result of miners overinvesting, this point of view is an instance of the labour theory of value, which is bogous.

Nice summary, thanks!  I'd just like to point out that the real difference here is the lack of a captive market.  If the banks overinvest in infrastructure, they can raise rates on their target audience.  If miners overinvest, all they can do is drop out and take their losses.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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Adrian-x
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September 21, 2014, 04:21:47 PM
 #12484

There is alot in a name. (I thought it was a parody)  This chap overlooks a fiew fundamental problems with money like how to distribute it and what gives it value.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
molecular
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September 21, 2014, 04:39:43 PM
 #12485

There is alot in a name. (I thought it was a parody)  This chap overlooks a fiew fundamental problems with money like how to distribute it and what gives it value.

I don't remember him talking about money much. I thought the whole idea was interesting... based on many assumptions, but given the right conditions, this could be done. On the other hand: maybe it's just an academic exercise.

btw regarding all the discussion about mining. I can't wait for the cost do double sometime in 2016 Wink

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molecular
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September 21, 2014, 08:10:43 PM
 #12486

shorts on bfx at 1 month (or longer) high > 10 kBTC




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Zarathustra
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September 21, 2014, 10:07:40 PM
 #12487

Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

There are huge side effects:
http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/soil-erosion-and-degradation

That's important but the kicker is overall economic growth, we're moving from a meme of more to a meme of better. The problem is the centers of control are working from the ideology of Co opting / controlling the supply of more. Monopolies have no value when people find alternatives,  micro electronics, alternate energy and food security technologies like aquaponics (oh and money) are reshaping everything.

Forget it, Adrian.

In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) is the proposition that as technology progresses, the increase in efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.[1] In 1865, the English economist William Stanley Jevons observed that technological improvements that increased the efficiency of coal-use led to the increased consumption of coal in a wide range of industries. He argued that, contrary to common intuition, technological improvements could not be relied upon to reduce fuel consumption.[2]

The issue has been re-examined by modern economists studying consumption rebound effects from improved energy efficiency. In addition to reducing the amount needed for a given use, improved efficiency lowers the relative cost of using a resource, which tends to increase the quantity of the resource demanded, potentially counteracting any savings from increased efficiency. Additionally, increased efficiency accelerates economic growth, further increasing the demand for resources. The Jevons paradox occurs when the effect from increased demand predominates, causing resource use to increase


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

I'm aware of Jevons_paradox, but much smarter people than me (Satosi) know it's only supply and demand that brings it into equilibrium. The divergence in usage as a result of innovation also express it's self in an economy as art and culture ultimately this is enriched experiences.

We won't find a comfortable equilibrium with constant economic growth as managed under the target of central banks.


With or without central banks: "a comfortable equilibrium with constant economic growth" is an oxymoron.
An economy is a collectivist organisation (state bastard), and:

"Essentially, the economy is an engine that transforms resources into waste."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ugo-bardi/2011/07/22/entropy-peak-oil-and-stoic-philosophy-part-2

An economy is by extension part of an ecosystem, entropy is a feature, one which drives the evolution of life. Waste as president in you referenced material is a byproduct of an economy artificially stimulated by monetarist policy.

The homo oeconomicus is an artificially stimulated homo sapiens. Monetarist policies are a byproduct of that artificial life.


"Staat nenne ich's, wo alle Gifttrinker sind, Gute und Schlimme: Staat, wo alle sich selber verlieren, Gute und Schlimme:
Staat, wo der langsame Selbstmord aller – »das Leben« heisst."
cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 01:33:45 AM
 #12488

oh my.  we've entered silver free fall.  there's no support until about 13.43:



cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 01:40:59 AM
 #12489

gold and the Dow futures aren't doing any better:



cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 01:50:15 AM
 #12490

like i said Friday, wouldn't it be "fitting" if the world's largest IPO ever, BABA, top ticked the stock mkt while Bitcoin bottomed.

to be clear, there is no technical evidence that we've topped in the stock mkt.  absolutely none of my indicators have confirmed any top at all.  it's just a feel and a matter of timing that bothers me.  we're way overdue for a cyclical downturn.  some ppl operate off a 7 yr cycle implying the earliest for a down turn being 2015.  problem is, i work off a 4 yr cycle, which is way over extended.  we'll see.

the way the USD (poking over resistance) and UST's (TLT bottoming) are setting up and the way that commodities, especially gold and silver, are heading down, one would be wise to be on high alert for a deflationary event.
cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 01:55:16 AM
 #12491

i'll say it again.

as long as gold and silver are falling, there is no reason to sell Bitcoin.  if fact, you should be buying Bitcoin.

b/c when the next crisis comes, and there will be another crisis, there will be no other fixed supply safe haven asset to run to other than Bitcoin.  for all the reasons i've outlined throughout these gold threads over the past few years, gold has failed at its historical role as an enforcer to fiat abuse from central banks.  that could not be clearer at this point.
cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 02:15:10 AM
 #12492

shorts on bfx at 1 month (or longer) high > 10 kBTC





yeah, i like the looks of that.
cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 02:26:21 AM
 #12493

buyers are hitting the asks on Stamp:

cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 02:36:45 AM
 #12494

Dow futures -72
cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 02:39:13 AM
 #12495

Markets are very active in the early Asian trading session (following the G-20-'s warnings over excess risk-taking). Precious metal liquidations continue with silver bearing the brunt (back below pre-Lehman levels) and gold down modestly. Stocks from China to US are all down notably too. The USD is weakening as EUR strengthens on the back of ECB comments about the possibility of no more stimulus and chatter that the PBOC may be selling USDs. Treasury yields are down (having retraced all FOMC losses). Iron Ore futures in Singapore just hit a record low below $80

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-21/liquidations-continue-stocks-dollar-slide-precious-metals-pounded-asia-trading
Adrian-x
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September 22, 2014, 02:39:44 AM
 #12496

Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

There are huge side effects:
http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/soil-erosion-and-degradation

That's important but the kicker is overall economic growth, we're moving from a meme of more to a meme of better. The problem is the centers of control are working from the ideology of Co opting / controlling the supply of more. Monopolies have no value when people find alternatives,  micro electronics, alternate energy and food security technologies like aquaponics (oh and money) are reshaping everything.

Forget it, Adrian.

In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) is the proposition that as technology progresses, the increase in efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.[1] In 1865, the English economist William Stanley Jevons observed that technological improvements that increased the efficiency of coal-use led to the increased consumption of coal in a wide range of industries. He argued that, contrary to common intuition, technological improvements could not be relied upon to reduce fuel consumption.[2]

The issue has been re-examined by modern economists studying consumption rebound effects from improved energy efficiency. In addition to reducing the amount needed for a given use, improved efficiency lowers the relative cost of using a resource, which tends to increase the quantity of the resource demanded, potentially counteracting any savings from increased efficiency. Additionally, increased efficiency accelerates economic growth, further increasing the demand for resources. The Jevons paradox occurs when the effect from increased demand predominates, causing resource use to increase


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

I'm aware of Jevons_paradox, but much smarter people than me (Satosi) know it's only supply and demand that brings it into equilibrium. The divergence in usage as a result of innovation also express it's self in an economy as art and culture ultimately this is enriched experiences.

We won't find a comfortable equilibrium with constant economic growth as managed under the target of central banks.


With or without central banks: "a comfortable equilibrium with constant economic growth" is an oxymoron.
An economy is a collectivist organisation (state bastard), and:

"Essentially, the economy is an engine that transforms resources into waste."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ugo-bardi/2011/07/22/entropy-peak-oil-and-stoic-philosophy-part-2

An economy is by extension part of an ecosystem, entropy is a feature, one which drives the evolution of life. Waste as president in you referenced material is a byproduct of an economy artificially stimulated by monetarist policy.

The homo oeconomicus is an artificially stimulated homo sapiens. Monetarist policies are a byproduct of that artificial life.

Touche, but I'm of the opinion we're seeing evolution in progress of a more powerful meme, it is taking hold in this very thread not only usurping the central bank (the armory of the monetarists) but its former long standing champion gold.

But just after writing "waste = food" I realised there is one type of waste which is actually waste and that is spent uranium.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 02:46:30 AM
 #12497

10yr UST futures Note turning up tonite.  Moar black hole sh*t:

Melbustus
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September 22, 2014, 02:51:44 AM
 #12498

10yr UST futures Note turning up tonite.  Moar black hole sh*t:
...


USTs will be the last man standing.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 02:51:56 AM
 #12499

they're still hitting the asks:

cypherdoc
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September 22, 2014, 02:53:18 AM
 #12500

starting to get a rally on Finex
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