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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806979 times)
cypherdoc
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September 19, 2014, 07:25:11 PM
 #12401

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment.

As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed.  

Now is not the time to try that.

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.


So then you should be richer than rich having sold a100% BTC portfolio @$1200 after having successfully navigated all the twists and turns on the way up from $0.60.
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September 19, 2014, 07:27:16 PM
 #12402

You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

As I recall, Bitstamp was well established by December, without gox's "banking problems". For whatever that's worth. Still, your point stands: Exchanges are still blindly trusted, even after gox melted down. The lack of serious developments to mitigate counterparty risk is one of the  most depressing things for me this year.

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September 19, 2014, 07:30:49 PM
 #12403

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment.

As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed.  

Now is not the time to try that.

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.


I didn't see 1200 on bitfinex, although it could have happened briefly.  But between 1000 and 1100 was certainly possible on both bitfinex and bitstamp.  At the same time, I think that most people who claim to have sold out at those prices are more commenting on the small size of their stash then their investing acumen.  As Cypherdoc was implying, a typical large holder would not accept the risk of trusting these sites with 1000s of coins or the fiat equivalent.  Of course, YMMV, nothing ventured nothing gained.  And a whale professional investor may be flying to HK/UK to personally meet the exchange owners, have a staff researching the past history of said owners, etc.

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September 19, 2014, 07:35:07 PM
 #12404

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment.

As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed.  

Now is not the time to try that.

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.


I didn't see 1200 on bitfinex, although it could have happened briefly.  But between 1000 and 1100 was certainly possible on both bitfinex and bitstamp.  At the same time, I think that most people who claim to have sold out at those prices are more commenting on the small size of their stash then their investing acumen.  As Cypherdoc was implying, a typical large holder would not accept the risk of trusting these sites with 1000s of coins or the fiat equivalent.  Of course, YMMV, nothing ventured nothing gained.  And a whale professional investor may be flying to HK/UK to personally meet the exchange owners, have a staff researching the past history of said owners, etc.



Good point, 1200 only happened on gox and was significantly higher than all other exchanges. S3052?
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September 19, 2014, 07:37:39 PM
 #12405

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.

[/quote]

So then you should be richer than rich having sold a100% BTC portfolio @$1200 after having successfully navigated all the twists and turns on the way up from $0.60.
[/quote]

Not sure why you are concerned about my "richness" or lack of.
I am very happy.
Believe it or not, I did sell a lot between 1100 and 1200.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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September 19, 2014, 07:40:09 PM
 #12406

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment.

As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed.  

Now is not the time to try that.

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.


I didn't see 1200 on bitfinex, although it could have happened briefly.  But between 1000 and 1100 was certainly possible on both bitfinex and bitstamp.  At the same time, I think that most people who claim to have sold out at those prices are more commenting on the small size of their stash then their investing acumen.  As Cypherdoc was implying, a typical large holder would not accept the risk of trusting these sites with 1000s of coins or the fiat equivalent.  Of course, YMMV, nothing ventured nothing gained.  And a whale professional investor may be flying to HK/UK to personally meet the exchange owners, have a staff researching the past history of said owners, etc.



Good point, 1200 only happened on gox and was significantly higher than all other exchanges. S3052?

Guys you are how we in German say "Korinthenkacker". 1175 was the top and the selling range was 1100-1175 if it is so important to you.

>>logictense
My method was to store BTC in cold wallets and only briefly put them on bitfinex or stamp for selling and withdrawing thereafter. It worked.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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September 19, 2014, 07:44:38 PM
 #12407

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.


So then you should be richer than rich having sold a100% BTC portfolio @$1200 after having successfully navigated all the twists and turns on the way up from $0.60.
[/quote]

Not sure why you are concerned about my "richness" or lack of.
I am very happy.
Believe it or not, I did sell a lot between 1100 and 1200.
[/quote]

Not concerned about that at all. It's the accuracy of your claims I'm concerned about. especially the ones about outperforming buy and hold.

If one reads the title of your sub thread and your comments within it, one would think you've never made a trading mistake on the way up from $0.60  to $1200. If true, you should be richer than the many buy and holders who have indeed become rich over the same time period.
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September 19, 2014, 07:49:56 PM
 #12408


Can't tell if you guys are joking... so here's a hint:

6*24 * 14 = 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XY5KTVA_2ys
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September 19, 2014, 07:51:22 PM
 #12409

The lack of serious developments to mitigate counterparty risk is one of the  most depressing things for me this year.
The development is happening - just taking longer than we thought.

http://otblog.net/2014/05/voting-pools-stop-plague-bitcoin-heists-thefts-hacks-scams-losses/

https://github.com/monetas/btcwallet/commits/vp
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September 19, 2014, 07:53:11 PM
 #12410

2016 is 2048 after an integer overflow.

Can't tell if you guys are joking... so here's a hint:
Mine was a joke and also relevant to Bitcoin.
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September 19, 2014, 08:06:10 PM
 #12411


[/quote]

Not concerned about that at all. It's the accuracy of your claims I'm concerned about. especially the ones about outperforming buy and hold.

If one reads the title of your sub thread and your comments within it, one would think you've never made a trading mistake on the way up from $0.60  to $1200. If true, you should be richer than the many buy and holders who have indeed become rich over the same time period.
[/quote]

Noone is perfect and neither me.
I have had losers as well in BTC trading, no doubt. What is accurate is the outperformance vs. buy and hold and getting out at 1100-1175. Since then, did only short term trades, no position trades any more. Will get back in if the technical picture warrants it.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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September 19, 2014, 08:08:38 PM
 #12412

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.


So then you should be richer than rich having sold a100% BTC portfolio @$1200 after having successfully navigated all the twists and turns on the way up from $0.60.

Not sure why you are concerned about my "richness" or lack of.
I am very happy.
Believe it or not, I did sell a lot between 1100 and 1200.
[/quote]

Not concerned about that at all. It's the accuracy of your claims I'm concerned about. especially the ones about outperforming buy and hold.

If one reads the title of your sub thread and your comments within it, one would think you've never made a trading mistake on the way up from $0.60  to $1200. If true, you should be richer than the many buy and holders who have indeed become rich over the same time period.
[/quote]

Just to put the ludicrousy in perspective, let's assume S3052 put $6000 into buying 10000 BTC @$0.60 in the middle of 2010 which is about where I can pinpoint his start in Bitcoin.  This is about 6mo  before me. Why $6000? because I know what his IRL day job is and that would not be an unreasonable amount for him.

Those 10000 BTC would be worth $12M if he just held into the top when he says he sold, a 200,000% return.  Not bad and certainly enough to thrust him into the rich category. Remember, he said his portfolio was 100% BTC at the top.

But, he says he's outperformed buy and hold with day trading by an order of magnitude which would be a 2,000,000% return. This is why he must be richer than rich.

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September 19, 2014, 08:13:28 PM
 #12413

pffft forget it. I wont tell you any absolute numbers. I also dont need to know if and how rich you are.

Fact is that I outperformed B&H by factor 1.5-2.0.
Orders of magnitude is wrong as I mistyped this and corrected it already in the original thread.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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September 19, 2014, 08:20:50 PM
 #12414

pffft forget it. I wont tell you any absolute numbers. I also dont need to know if and how rich you are.

Fact is that I outperformed B&H by factor 1.5-2.0.
Orders of magnitude is wrong as I mistyped this and corrected it already in the original thread.

Ok, since B&H from $0.60-$1200  is a 200,000% return, then your out performance amounts to 300,000-400,000%, or with a not unreasonable 10000BTC, $18M-24M?
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September 19, 2014, 08:22:53 PM
 #12415

percentage wise this is close
again, no comment on any absolutes as I stared with much smaller amounts

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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September 19, 2014, 08:30:17 PM
 #12416

percentage wise this is close
again, no comment on any absolutes as I stared with much smaller amounts

Wow, someone with your extraordinary abilities should either be working on Wall Street or you should have plowed huge amounts of fiat into Bitcoin given the chance to actually have become rich.  
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September 19, 2014, 08:36:11 PM
 #12417

percentage wise this is close
again, no comment on any absolutes as I stared with much smaller amounts

Wow, someone with your extraordinary abilities should either be working on Wall Street or you should have plowed huge amounts of fiat into Bitcoin given the chance to actually have become rich.  

Actually, Wall Street isn't good enough for you. You could just buy Wall Street.

Ladies and gentlemen, I stand in awe: 300,000 to 400,000% return performance for S3052 since 2010.

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September 19, 2014, 08:40:47 PM
 #12418

pffft forget it. I wont tell you any absolute numbers. I also dont need to know if and how rich you are.

Fact is that I outperformed B&H by factor 1.5-2.0.
Orders of magnitude is wrong as I mistyped this and corrected it already in the original thread.

Ok, since B&H from $0.60-$1200  is a 200,000% return, then your out performance amounts to 300,000-400,000%, or with a not unreasonable 10000BTC, $1.8M-2.4M?

notice that 10000 BTC at the top (1200) would be 12M to 24M not 1.2M to 2.4M...

I don't care about S3052's personal performance, I'm more aiming my comments at some of the extremely vocal ppl who inhabit the wall observer.  Personally, I don't think that it has been very hard to beat B&H in this market.  I did so with the extremely small % I was willing to put in bitfinex and bitstamp...  You can even look back into my post history to show this (if you want to torture yourselves) b/c I have made about 5-10 posts that imply a trade in 3 years.

TBH I think wall street on average is a bunch of idiots -- or more accurately, they lack the edge of actually knowing something other than finance.  For example, I avoided the tech bubble b/c I am in tech, bought stocks post 9/11 and all the way down the 08 rabbit hole.

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September 19, 2014, 08:43:35 PM
 #12419

pffft forget it. I wont tell you any absolute numbers. I also dont need to know if and how rich you are.

Fact is that I outperformed B&H by factor 1.5-2.0.
Orders of magnitude is wrong as I mistyped this and corrected it already in the original thread.

Ok, since B&H from $0.60-$1200  is a 200,000% return, then your out performance amounts to 300,000-400,000%, or with a not unreasonable 10000BTC, $1.8M-2.4M?

notice that 10000 BTC at the top (1200) would be 12M to 24M not 1.2M to 2.4M...

I don't care about S3052's personal performance, I'm more aiming my comments at some of the extremely vocal ppl who inhabit the wall observer.  Personally, I don't think that it has been very hard to beat B&H in this market.  I did so with the extremely small % I was willing to put in bitfinex and bitstamp...  You can even look back into my post history to show this (if you want to torture yourselves) b/c I have made about 5-10 posts that imply a trade in 3 years.

TBH I think wall street on average is a bunch of idiots -- or more accurately, they lack the edge of actually knowing something other than finance.  For example, I avoided the tech bubble b/c I am in tech, bought stocks post 9/11 and all the way down the 08 rabbit hole.



Lol, you're right, 12M.

I guess I am so blown away I can't think straight.  Wink
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September 19, 2014, 08:49:33 PM
 #12420

Quote
Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

Think about that. Humanity and civilization are changing faster than they ever have before, by many orders of magnitude, and the digitization and electronic interconnectedness of the world is only accelerating that pace.


I think you mean ~90 hours per million?  (75 million per year)



No, it's minutes. Just double checked:



Note that it's not talking about straight population growth, but about the level of economic activity/wealth created per unit time that can theoretically support a given amount of population growth. This is from Bostrom's new "Superintelligence" book: http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111




When getting into Bitcoin after reading "wealth of nations" by Adam Smith who explained very clearly how productivity of food drove the value of metals and in turn the economy, I attempt to mirror his formulas from the ground up through the lens of technological progress, I forget the quantity of land I used as a manageable unit per farmer (1 square km of arable land comes to mind).  I then took the worldwide arable land as a base.
(Coincidentally  he also confirms PoW is the most efficient use of energy when creating earning money.)

The point being a single farmer using typical farm equipment and managing the maximum area efficiency can produce enough calories to sustain around 100,000 people (so cooperation is fare more effective when applying technology than subsistence farming, but more over we could have a plague of zombies if we forgo accepted norms today.

How those calories filter through the economy depends on where the wealth goes, so we can still see exponential population growth for some time to come at the expense of art and innovation and a flourishing divergent economy.

I guess my point being using fractional reserve lending to make money to buy agriculturally productive land that is managed with less than 2% of world population creates malinvestment on a global scale, the resulting cheep food doesn't create excess capacity for innovation and art in the economy but grows the population who reproductive productivity is determined by available food, ie the 3rd world.

So while the reference is not substantiated it's in the correct ballpark.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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