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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1941159 times)
cypherdoc
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September 19, 2014, 08:43:35 PM
 #12401

pffft forget it. I wont tell you any absolute numbers. I also dont need to know if and how rich you are.

Fact is that I outperformed B&H by factor 1.5-2.0.
Orders of magnitude is wrong as I mistyped this and corrected it already in the original thread.

Ok, since B&H from $0.60-$1200  is a 200,000% return, then your out performance amounts to 300,000-400,000%, or with a not unreasonable 10000BTC, $1.8M-2.4M?

notice that 10000 BTC at the top (1200) would be 12M to 24M not 1.2M to 2.4M...

I don't care about S3052's personal performance, I'm more aiming my comments at some of the extremely vocal ppl who inhabit the wall observer.  Personally, I don't think that it has been very hard to beat B&H in this market.  I did so with the extremely small % I was willing to put in bitfinex and bitstamp...  You can even look back into my post history to show this (if you want to torture yourselves) b/c I have made about 5-10 posts that imply a trade in 3 years.

TBH I think wall street on average is a bunch of idiots -- or more accurately, they lack the edge of actually knowing something other than finance.  For example, I avoided the tech bubble b/c I am in tech, bought stocks post 9/11 and all the way down the 08 rabbit hole.



Lol, you're right, 12M.

I guess I am so blown away I can't think straight.  Wink
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Adrian-x
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September 19, 2014, 08:49:33 PM
 #12402

Quote
Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

Think about that. Humanity and civilization are changing faster than they ever have before, by many orders of magnitude, and the digitization and electronic interconnectedness of the world is only accelerating that pace.


I think you mean ~90 hours per million?  (75 million per year)



No, it's minutes. Just double checked:



Note that it's not talking about straight population growth, but about the level of economic activity/wealth created per unit time that can theoretically support a given amount of population growth. This is from Bostrom's new "Superintelligence" book: http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111




When getting into Bitcoin after reading "wealth of nations" by Adam Smith who explained very clearly how productivity of food drove the value of metals and in turn the economy, I attempt to mirror his formulas from the ground up through the lens of technological progress, I forget the quantity of land I used as a manageable unit per farmer (1 square km of arable land comes to mind).  I then took the worldwide arable land as a base.
(Coincidentally  he also confirms PoW is the most efficient use of energy when creating earning money.)

The point being a single farmer using typical farm equipment and managing the maximum area efficiency can produce enough calories to sustain around 100,000 people (so cooperation is fare more effective when applying technology than subsistence farming, but more over we could have a plague of zombies if we forgo accepted norms today.

How those calories filter through the economy depends on where the wealth goes, so we can still see exponential population growth for some time to come at the expense of art and innovation and a flourishing divergent economy.

I guess my point being using fractional reserve lending to make money to buy agriculturally productive land that is managed with less than 2% of world population creates malinvestment on a global scale, the resulting cheep food doesn't create excess capacity for innovation and art in the economy but grows the population who reproductive productivity is determined by available food, ie the 3rd world.

So while the reference is not substantiated it's in the correct ballpark.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
thezerg
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September 19, 2014, 08:50:52 PM
 #12403

pffft forget it. I wont tell you any absolute numbers. I also dont need to know if and how rich you are.

Fact is that I outperformed B&H by factor 1.5-2.0.
Orders of magnitude is wrong as I mistyped this and corrected it already in the original thread.

Ok, since B&H from $0.60-$1200  is a 200,000% return, then your out performance amounts to 300,000-400,000%, or with a not unreasonable 10000BTC, $1.8M-2.4M?

notice that 10000 BTC at the top (1200) would be 12M to 24M not 1.2M to 2.4M...

I don't care about S3052's personal performance, I'm more aiming my comments at some of the extremely vocal ppl who inhabit the wall observer.  Personally, I don't think that it has been very hard to beat B&H in this market.  I did so with the extremely small % I was willing to put in bitfinex and bitstamp...  You can even look back into my post history to show this (if you want to torture yourselves) b/c I have made about 5-10 posts that imply a trade in 3 years.

TBH I think wall street on average is a bunch of idiots -- or more accurately, they lack the edge of actually knowing something other than finance.  For example, I avoided the tech bubble b/c I am in tech, bought stocks post 9/11 and all the way down the 08 rabbit hole.



Lol, you're right, 12M.

I guess I am so blown away I can't think straight.  Wink

But I think that personal investment in Bitcoin from 2010 to 2012 had a lot to do with personal risk appetite and time to figure out how to acquire coins than any reasoned % of salary or net worth.  So likely S3052 invested well under $6000 as that amount is not "throw away" money for anyone who is still salaried.

EDIT: ok let me qualify that to "working for a salary" as opposed to working b/c you want to and incidentally receiving a salary.
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September 19, 2014, 08:56:50 PM
 #12404

well under $6000 as that amount is not "throw away" money for anyone who is still salaried.
Depends on salary.
Adrian-x
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September 19, 2014, 09:02:14 PM
 #12405

Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

There are huge side effects:
http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/soil-erosion-and-degradation

That's important but the kicker is overall economic growth, we're moving from a meme of more to a meme of better. The problem is the centers of control are working from the ideology of Co opting / controlling the supply of more. Monopolies have no value when people find alternatives,  micro electronics, alternate energy and food security technologies like aquaponics (oh and money) are reshaping everything.

Forget it, Adrian.

In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) is the proposition that as technology progresses, the increase in efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.[1] In 1865, the English economist William Stanley Jevons observed that technological improvements that increased the efficiency of coal-use led to the increased consumption of coal in a wide range of industries. He argued that, contrary to common intuition, technological improvements could not be relied upon to reduce fuel consumption.[2]

The issue has been re-examined by modern economists studying consumption rebound effects from improved energy efficiency. In addition to reducing the amount needed for a given use, improved efficiency lowers the relative cost of using a resource, which tends to increase the quantity of the resource demanded, potentially counteracting any savings from increased efficiency. Additionally, increased efficiency accelerates economic growth, further increasing the demand for resources. The Jevons paradox occurs when the effect from increased demand predominates, causing resource use to increase


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

I'm aware of Jevons_paradox, but much smarter people than me (Satosi) know it's only supply and demand that brings it into equilibrium. The divergence in usage as a result of innovation also express it's self in an economy as art and culture ultimately this is enriched experiences.

We won't find a comfortable equilibrium with constant economic growth as managed under the target of central banks.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
cypherdoc
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September 19, 2014, 09:02:32 PM
 #12406

well under $6000 as that amount is not "throw away" money for anyone who is still salaried.
Depends on salary.

I already addressed this. He's got a good day job.
cypherdoc
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September 19, 2014, 09:39:56 PM
 #12407

well under $6000 as that amount is not "throw away" money for anyone who is still salaried.
Depends on salary.

I already addressed this. He's got a good day job.

ok, let's do it your way.  let's say he's got a low salary and only put $600 to buy 1000BTC.

at 300,000-400,000% return, which he's already claimed, he'd turn that into $1.8M-2.4M.  see, he's rich.

btw, i don't get it.  this is the title of his thread  "#1 Bitcoin and Altcoin Price Forecasts (+1,492% gains, +750% more than B&H)" and i think he downward adjusted those numbers based on other ppl's criticism.
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September 19, 2014, 09:50:08 PM
 #12408

you forget that I distributed a lot of coins via donations along the way and bitcoinica hack
cypherdoc
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September 19, 2014, 09:53:42 PM
 #12409

you forget that I distributed a lot of coins via donations along the way and bitcoinica hack

or maybe given all the inconsistencies one finds scattered about in your claims, it's simply a matter of false advertising?
cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 03:18:38 AM
 #12410

so who sold under $400?
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September 20, 2014, 03:28:06 AM
 #12411

recap end of day silver. 

geezuz, just look at that!  icebreaker and Goat are gonna be rich!  this is what happens when you complete the 3rd stage of criticality:



cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 03:34:24 AM
 #12412

actually, this one is much prettier where i've drawn the 2 yr chart with the 3rd breach @18.17.  note how red candle just punched right thru on volume.  just beautiful.  no wonder ZSL simultaneously punched UP thru 2 resistance levels in the same day:

cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 03:44:05 AM
 #12413

note the $DXY finished just a smidge above resistance at the close.  thats good for the USD.  let's see if we blast off Monday morning as technically it's freely cleared this level.  right now, i think the daily cycle bottom got put in on 9/16.  if so, it should blast off UP, while driving everything else down:

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September 20, 2014, 03:57:47 AM
 #12414

uh oh.  moar blackhole sh*t:

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September 20, 2014, 04:00:47 AM
 #12415

uh oh
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September 20, 2014, 04:07:07 AM
 #12416

If gold goes lower i will trade some bitcoins for some ounces of it. Cool

cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 04:11:01 AM
 #12417

If gold goes lower i will trade some bitcoins for some ounces of it. Cool

that's the spirit.

just make sure you wear thick gloves.
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September 20, 2014, 04:19:44 AM
 #12418

nice OKCoin bid wall there.
cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 04:20:06 AM
 #12419

oh yes
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September 20, 2014, 04:21:32 AM
 #12420

oh yes

listen to me.  i sound like i'm having an orgasm.
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