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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1936251 times)
Hunyadi
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September 18, 2014, 05:21:36 PM
 #12301

I remember when 1 bitcoin was worth more then 1 ounce of gold crazy times.

just briefly.  i remember sitting there watching Bitcoin ascend to meet gold.  what a thrill.  it was the culmination of 2.5 yrs of posting about it.  if there was one thing that i could point to that capped the rally @1200 back in Dec it was Satoshi daring to touch the face of gold.  traders immediately sold it off and took profits as the once considered impossible occurred.  we've had a wicked retrace since then but i'm convinced the story is not over and that we will go back up and touch it again.

IIRC when bitcoin=gold ounce was the peak. Cypherdoc, do you think that confirms there is a strong relationship between gold and btc?  

from a conceptual standpoint, Satoshi designed Bitcoin to be a digital form of gold.  he talks about this in some of his earlier writings.  he also used the term "mining" which is a direct reference to gold mining.  his genesis block indicates a sophisticated understanding of fiat bailouts and the moral hazards related to such.  the whole design of decentralization, key to Bitcoin's success, is an attempt to avoid gvt interference and censorship, something gold bugs have always been concerned about.  Satoshi's insight came after many decades of various digital cash forerunners.  the fixed supply of BTC is a fundamental concept behind sound money and a throwback to the days before we had central banks.  when i first started studying about Bitcoin in Jan 2011, i saw the relationship immediately.  my many years of gold and silver hoarding was critical to understanding what he had invented.  so yes, i think there is a conceptual relationship btwn Bitcoin and gold designed from the beginning by Satoshi himself.

yes, i do think the fact that Bitcoin touched the gold price back in Dec is symbolic and will be retested.

your question really is, what is the price relationship going to be long term?   i think it's going to be inverse.  but only over the long term as we've seen since gold's top and Bitcoins low in 2011.

obviously, under most other shorter term time frames you won't see it b/c there is still considerable doubt and skepticism to the idea which causes plenty of divergences to the inverse relationship seen in the price data.  having actually monitored the news and price flow closely in this arena since January 2011, i think i will be right in the long run despite the recent Bitcoin bearishness.  

but it's also possible my judgment is clouded given my portfolio positioning.  all i can do is continue to present my case here in the form of links, references, charts, graphs, statistics, theoretical arguments, etc, as i have done since Gold: I Smell a Trap

That's what I thought. Very nice answer, thank you very much. This thread is actually real eye opener if you pay attention.  Smiley

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TeeBone
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September 18, 2014, 05:43:46 PM
 #12302

gold up, btc down 70% ytd and counting lol

btc will be a blip in history in 50 yrs, gold will be as good as gold 1000 yrs from now.
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September 18, 2014, 05:59:31 PM
 #12303

If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle Cheesy

Not if they were ben-wa balls.


hdbuck
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September 18, 2014, 06:01:31 PM
 #12304

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin too. ^^




Syke
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September 18, 2014, 06:22:55 PM
 #12305

gold up, btc down 70% ytd and counting lol

btc will be a blip in history in 50 yrs, gold will be as good as gold 1000 yrs from now.

And that's where you're wrong. The world is going digital, something that never existed before. Gold can't compete in a digital world. Bitcoin can. Forget that and you'll pay the price.

Buy & Hold
devphp
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September 18, 2014, 07:12:07 PM
 #12306

The world is going digital, something that never existed before.

It would be a very fragile world. The attempts will continue of course, but the outcome is vague at best.
Erdogan
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September 18, 2014, 07:58:54 PM
 #12307


As money it will fail, because it's supply is finite.
World's economy will grow with time, so ( very moderately ) MUST grow supply of real digital money.  Roll Eyes

Finite supply of BTC will lead to deflationary spirals and to underinvestment.... Wink

lol

We need moar!! (cit dr Havenstein)

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September 18, 2014, 08:23:23 PM
 #12308

gold up, btc down 70% ytd and counting lol

btc will be a blip in history in 50 yrs, gold will be as good as gold 1000 yrs from now.

And that's where you're wrong. The world is going digital, something that never existed before. Gold can't compete in a digital world. Bitcoin can. Forget that and you'll pay the price.


+1.

Look at how the world has changed in the last 200yrs. It's been unprecedented. I read a paragraph the other day that stated (paraphrasing):

Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

Think about that. Humanity and civilization are changing faster than they ever have before, by many orders of magnitude, and the digitization and electronic interconnectedness of the world is only accelerating that pace.


tl;dr: It *is* reasonable to think that ideas and customs which have "stood the test of time" will soon change/end.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
devphp
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September 18, 2014, 08:26:51 PM
 #12309

Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

There are huge side effects:
http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/soil-erosion-and-degradation
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September 18, 2014, 08:50:07 PM
 #12310

Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

There are huge side effects:
http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/soil-erosion-and-degradation

That's important but the kicker is overall economic growth, we're moving from a meme of more to a meme of better. The problem is the centers of control are working from the ideology of Co opting / controlling the supply of more. Monopolies have no value when people find alternatives,  micro electronics, alternate energy and food security technologies like aquaponics (oh and money) are reshaping everything.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
wachtwoord
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September 18, 2014, 08:50:50 PM
 #12311


So moderately strong positively correlated. Correlation ranges from -1 to 1
User705
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September 18, 2014, 11:07:20 PM
 #12312

gold up, btc down 70% ytd and counting lol

btc will be a blip in history in 50 yrs, gold will be as good as gold 1000 yrs from now.
Bitoin might end up a blip of history in 50 years or perhaps it will be like the 1st computer or a ford model T but you are confused about the point here.  Gold will still be gold a 1000 years from now but it will never be money again for the majority of the worlds population just like pigeon mail will never be a future mode of communication for the majority of the worlds population or the horse will again somehow become a major mode of transport.
cypherdoc
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September 18, 2014, 11:29:41 PM
 #12313

gold up, btc down 70% ytd and counting lol

btc will be a blip in history in 50 yrs, gold will be as good as gold 1000 yrs from now.

Guys like you, and especially the hired trolls all over this forum like Severro, antibitcoinconsortium, fallling, etc don't even realize that the only reason they are able  push their agenda and scare everyone is through their repeated usage of the very tool that Bitcoin uses; the Internet. Bitcoin is essentially just messaging over the Internet.
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September 18, 2014, 11:36:05 PM
 #12314

gold up, btc down 70% ytd and counting lol

btc will be a blip in history in 50 yrs, gold will be as good as gold 1000 yrs from now.
Bitoin might end up a blip of history in 50 years or perhaps it will be like the 1st computer or a ford model T but you are confused about the point here.  Gold will still be gold a 1000 years from now but it will never be money again for the majority of the worlds population just like pigeon mail will never be a future mode of communication for the majority of the worlds population or the horse will again somehow become a major mode of transport.

No arguments there. I think it's more important to look at gold from its investment perspective right now. Does it have one last mega-spike left or is it dead in the water? If you believe the former then it's worth hanging in there or buying and waiting for the right time to sell, and then move into other investments. If you think it's already dead then your money should be somewhere else (or cash in hand waiting for something else), or shorting gold. And in these weird times, those are some bitching decisions to make.

This is an interesting development. "Battle for control over gold pricing begins as China opens gold window tomorrow."

http://www.examiner.com/article/battle-for-control-over-gold-pricing-begins-as-china-opens-gold-window-tomorrow

BrewCrewFan
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September 18, 2014, 11:43:01 PM
 #12315

gold up, btc down 70% ytd and counting lol

btc will be a blip in history in 50 yrs, gold will be as good as gold 1000 yrs from now.
Bitoin might end up a blip of history in 50 years or perhaps it will be like the 1st computer or a ford model T but you are confused about the point here.  Gold will still be gold a 1000 years from now but it will never be money again for the majority of the worlds population just like pigeon mail will never be a future mode of communication for the majority of the worlds population or the horse will again somehow become a major mode of transport.

No arguments there. I think it's more important to look at gold from its investment perspective right now. Does it have one last mega-spike left or is it dead in the water? If you believe the former then it's worth hanging in there or buying and waiting for the right time to sell, and then move into other investments. If you think it's already dead then your money should be somewhere else (or cash in hand waiting for something else), or shorting gold. And in these weird times, those are some bitching decisions to make.

This is an interesting development. "Battle for control over gold pricing begins as China opens gold window tomorrow."

http://www.examiner.com/article/battle-for-control-over-gold-pricing-begins-as-china-opens-gold-window-tomorrow



USD is getting weaker and weaker... soon will lose its reserve title...then things will get interesting and to be honest, I hope I am long gone before then.

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cypherdoc
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September 18, 2014, 11:46:49 PM
 #12316

gold up, btc down 70% ytd and counting lol

btc will be a blip in history in 50 yrs, gold will be as good as gold 1000 yrs from now.
Bitoin might end up a blip of history in 50 years or perhaps it will be like the 1st computer or a ford model T but you are confused about the point here.  Gold will still be gold a 1000 years from now but it will never be money again for the majority of the worlds population just like pigeon mail will never be a future mode of communication for the majority of the worlds population or the horse will again somehow become a major mode of transport.

No arguments there. I think it's more important to look at gold from its investment perspective right now. Does it have one last mega-spike left or is it dead in the water? If you believe the former then it's worth hanging in there or buying and waiting for the right time to sell, and then move into other investments. If you think it's already dead then your money should be somewhere else (or cash in hand waiting for something else), or shorting gold. And in these weird times, those are some bitching decisions to make.

This is an interesting development. "Battle for control over gold pricing begins as China opens gold window tomorrow."

http://www.examiner.com/article/battle-for-control-over-gold-pricing-begins-as-china-opens-gold-window-tomorrow



thanks for the interesting article.
zeetubes
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September 18, 2014, 11:55:05 PM
 #12317

gold up, btc down 70% ytd and counting lol

btc will be a blip in history in 50 yrs, gold will be as good as gold 1000 yrs from now.
Bitoin might end up a blip of history in 50 years or perhaps it will be like the 1st computer or a ford model T but you are confused about the point here.  Gold will still be gold a 1000 years from now but it will never be money again for the majority of the worlds population just like pigeon mail will never be a future mode of communication for the majority of the worlds population or the horse will again somehow become a major mode of transport.

No arguments there. I think it's more important to look at gold from its investment perspective right now. Does it have one last mega-spike left or is it dead in the water? If you believe the former then it's worth hanging in there or buying and waiting for the right time to sell, and then move into other investments. If you think it's already dead then your money should be somewhere else (or cash in hand waiting for something else), or shorting gold. And in these weird times, those are some bitching decisions to make.

This is an interesting development. "Battle for control over gold pricing begins as China opens gold window tomorrow."

http://www.examiner.com/article/battle-for-control-over-gold-pricing-begins-as-china-opens-gold-window-tomorrow



thanks for the interesting article.

May we live in interesting times... People who hold bitcoins aren't necesarily investors. They are equally as likely to be idealists, anarchists or just interested in technology. As user705 pointed out, gold as pure money is not the future, but gold, either long or short, could be a good short to mid term investment or speculative bid.
cypherdoc
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September 19, 2014, 12:02:16 AM
 #12318

gold up, btc down 70% ytd and counting lol

btc will be a blip in history in 50 yrs, gold will be as good as gold 1000 yrs from now.
Bitoin might end up a blip of history in 50 years or perhaps it will be like the 1st computer or a ford model T but you are confused about the point here.  Gold will still be gold a 1000 years from now but it will never be money again for the majority of the worlds population just like pigeon mail will never be a future mode of communication for the majority of the worlds population or the horse will again somehow become a major mode of transport.

No arguments there. I think it's more important to look at gold from its investment perspective right now. Does it have one last mega-spike left or is it dead in the water? If you believe the former then it's worth hanging in there or buying and waiting for the right time to sell, and then move into other investments. If you think it's already dead then your money should be somewhere else (or cash in hand waiting for something else), or shorting gold. And in these weird times, those are some bitching decisions to make.

This is an interesting development. "Battle for control over gold pricing begins as China opens gold window tomorrow."

http://www.examiner.com/article/battle-for-control-over-gold-pricing-begins-as-china-opens-gold-window-tomorrow



thanks for the interesting article.

May we live in interesting times... People who hold bitcoins aren't necesarily investors. They are equally as likely to be idealists, anarchists or just interested in technology. As user705 pointed out, gold as pure money is not the future, but gold, either long or short, could be a good short to mid term investment or speculative bid.

a while back i went over why i thought the peak in gold was in 2011.  if i'm right, this was an 11 yo bull which is pretty advanced and even longer than the general commodity bubble we had throughout the noughts.  i believe there is a repeating 9 yr gold cycle which bottomed in 2008.  this current 9 yr cycle appears to have topped in 2011 after only 3 yr and into a parabola, characteristic of bubble tops.  the left translated shape also is suggestive that we've seen the top and is a bearish sign.  we won't be bottoming for this cycle for a few more years.
cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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September 19, 2014, 12:04:49 AM
 #12319

Patterns are imaginary. The trick is to understand how imagination works.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
cypherdoc
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September 19, 2014, 12:11:02 AM
 #12320

Patterns are imaginary. The trick is to understand how imagination works.

true, but my imagination on gold has worked so far. Cheesy
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