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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804289 times)
cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 11:12:28 PM
 #12281

i said this in the Wall St Myth thread.

what Wall St will need to see to get into Bitcoin in a big way is Gold Collapsing, Bitcoin UP.  once they see that money moving into Bitcoin and the increased liquidity that comes with it, then they will be willing to get in in a big way.  both of these factors will be huge inputs into the price.

it's happening now.
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cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 11:25:29 PM
 #12282

$DXY just poked its head over the top of resistance --> Breakout!

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September 17, 2014, 11:50:13 PM
 #12283

the main bull argument i see here for a bottom in the 440 range is we have considerable support as seen in the drawn oval.  sure, there's a chance we push down into the 300's to challenge the 339 low but the bears have to get thru the support level first.  that's going to be difficult due to all the selling that's been going on.  do they have the ammunition?

the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now.  that should be good for Bitcoin.

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September 18, 2014, 12:02:22 AM
 #12284

From the WSJ a few weeks back.

"The SEC usually takes about a year to approve an ETF, but it is still reviewing an application for a bitcoin fund 14 months after it was filed. That fund, to be called Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust and carry the ticker symbol COIN, comes from the brothers Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss."

And I'm sure they'll drag it out as long as possible.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/with-a-bitcoin-etf-risk-isn-t-virtual-1410120108

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September 18, 2014, 12:14:11 AM
 #12285

"the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now.  that should be good for Bitcoin."

Cypher, I'm thinking the average gold investor will be scared to shift into btc if they perceive it to be just another CB controlled market. Out of the frying pan etc. Wall Street will switch its attention to btc when the Fed stops controlling the Dow/S&P. There's too much easy money to be made in the stock markets for the big boys until then, and any shift to safety just seems to go into the dollar and related instruments. The major funds have pulled billions out of the UK markets in recent weeks, mainly because of Scotland's independence referendum and the only beneficiaries of that move seem to be $DXY and other major stock markets. A yes vote will see some nice volatility in the markets, but I'm not sure if bitcoin will see much impact. The voting starts later today.
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September 18, 2014, 01:00:57 AM
 #12286

I think taper is a reference to the current process.    So they call it reduction or taper to each month reduce the amount they add every month.   So if I start off after every meal by eating 10 donuts, I declare myself to be on a diet and I taper my calories intake.  Next month I eat 9 donuts after every meal, so on.    Its silly to say Im dieting, of course the word diet is misnomer also.   Its just another point about shaped perceptions in markets right now, every day more debt is added and that is the plan for a long time ahead so far as I know, all their speeches just frame that positively

Quote
At a time when higher interest rates are knocking at the door, people don't see the need for gold."

This quote is the reason to buy gold even with its apparent weakness.   Gold will rise fastest when they are actually raising interest rates and the total failure to recognise that possibility is why the market prices wont give a clue right now.   There is no trend upwards for gold, unfortunately it will rely on people finding a purpose for gold fundamentally (not speculatively).   Thats not a definite because theres many alternatives such as bitcoin or just normal national currency, any country which exports is fine to hold longterm I guess.   The problem there might be who they export to and consistency of that, but anything is safer then dollars in that respect which held by exporters without an actual need to, so its strength is false as might gold weakness also be false.

If gov had to pay higher rates it would cause them great problems with their budget.   After not very long, the interest paid would exceed the defence budget and all other spending.    Also with QE it causes problems, debt worth relies on rates payable vs market rates.
The effect from debt worth less is selling in treasuries.   In effect less debt, more dollars would exist unless QE was increased again.   More dollars circulated is very likely more inflation meaning interest rates are exceeded by greater inflation.  

  TL;dr  Higher interest rates will occur alongside much higher inflation, gold will be worth most when rates are far higher then now.  BTC and gold were once equal in price, this is quite possible at $10,000 also

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September 18, 2014, 01:01:03 AM
 #12287

here's a fun one; the volume profile chart of gold for 5y weekly.

you can see that gold failed to ascend the mountain on the vertically oriented VP histogram and has fallen back and is sliding down.  it should slide all the way down w/o much resistance to 1175 before having to ascend a smaller mountain to approx 1130.

VolumeProfile

Description

The Volume Profile study represents trading activity over a time period at specified price levels. Considering the input-defined aggregation period, the Volume Profile plots a histogram showing price distribution, revealing the dominant price values in terms of volume. The width of histogram's row represents the number of actual transactions made within the price interval defined by the row's height.


cypherdoc
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September 18, 2014, 01:13:18 AM
 #12288

here's even worse news on the Gold 10 yr weekly chart with VP which covers most of the 11yr bull market that peaked in 2011.

this chart shows that the highest volume of tx's for the last 10 yr period occurred @1311.5.  that little red line is the line i've been drawing on the daily charts the last few weeks as to what once was support and is now resistance.  it appears gold has failed to penetrate to the upside via climbing the mountain and penetrating the red line.  this apparent failure indicates to me that gold has just started to make its definitive move to the downside and should break below the long sideways consolidation channel its been in for the last year and few months.  once it does that, there is little to no support left until about 926.

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September 18, 2014, 01:22:37 AM
 #12289

"the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now.  that should be good for Bitcoin."

Cypher, I'm thinking the average gold investor will be scared to shift into btc if they perceive it to be just another CB controlled market. Out of the frying pan etc. Wall Street will switch its attention to btc when the Fed stops controlling the Dow/S&P. There's too much easy money to be made in the stock markets for the big boys until then, and any shift to safety just seems to go into the dollar and related instruments. The major funds have pulled billions out of the UK markets in recent weeks, mainly because of Scotland's independence referendum and the only beneficiaries of that move seem to be $DXY and other major stock markets. A yes vote will see some nice volatility in the markets, but I'm not sure if bitcoin will see much impact. The voting starts later today.


i've been beating on this drum for well over 3 yrs now and i'd bet just about every serious gold investor has become sick hearing about Bitcoin. i know for sure many here are sick of me.  i really don't like the price action in gold as i've tried to demonstrate above and if it starts heading south to the degree i think it will, goldbugs will have to capitulate and run to something.  i think their distaste for the USD is such that a significant portion of the gold market can come to Bitcoin helping to fuel the next rally.  i realize it's wild to think that but its worked beautifully for me personally for all this time.  so far.
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September 18, 2014, 01:28:14 AM
 #12290

the main bull argument i see here for a bottom in the 440 range is we have considerable support as seen in the drawn oval.  sure, there's a chance we push down into the 300's to challenge the 339 low but the bears have to get thru the support level first.  that's going to be difficult due to all the selling that's been going on.  do they have the ammunition?

the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now.  that should be good for Bitcoin.



if anybody here has a Pro version of the Tradingview.com chart function, i'd love to see the Volume Profile for Bitcoin at Bitstamp.

obviously, we'd see the peak of the histogram somewhere around here in the 440 range but it would be interesting to see the exact price and the relative heights around it.
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September 18, 2014, 01:34:06 AM
 #12291

Quote
which covers most of the 11yr bull market that peaked in 2011.


It covers Chicago futures but I will venture Chicago is not the determiner but on the end of the bull-whip that is the world gold market.     We got China as the largest gold producer in the world, a communist nation also they are likely the worlds largest buyer of gold.   China exports no gold, they do import gold however they declared no increase in gold holdings in years.
How can they justify no gold purchases, I would guess they have citizens close to the government doing the buying of gold or are just lying of course Cheesy    China holds 1% of its foreign reserves in gold, far less then Italy or many established nations so there is very good reason why they are the greatest determiner of the gold price yet none of this information is on that chart really.

Why would a nation that holds trillions in dollar debt, lacks gold reserves want to hide their gold buying.   These are again fundamental reasons behind the price, its less clear then technical charts unfortunately

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September 18, 2014, 01:34:47 AM
 #12292

if anybody here has a Pro version of the Tradingview.com chart function, i'd love to see the Volume Profile for Bitcoin at Bitstamp.

obviously, we'd see the peak of the histogram somewhere around here in the 440 range but it would be interesting to see the exact price and the relative heights around it.

It will also be at peak around 600.
cypherdoc
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September 18, 2014, 01:37:15 AM
 #12293

if anybody here has a Pro version of the Tradingview.com chart function, i'd love to see the Volume Profile for Bitcoin at Bitstamp.

obviously, we'd see the peak of the histogram somewhere around here in the 440 range but it would be interesting to see the exact price and the relative heights around it.

It will also be at peak around 600.

yeah, i noticed that after i posted.

it would be interesting to compare the 2 price levels.
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September 18, 2014, 02:01:47 AM
 #12294

Kyle Torpey fanning the flames:

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-core-developer-jeff-garzik-believes-nxt-is-a-scamcoin/
cypherdoc
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September 18, 2014, 02:44:20 AM
 #12295

hmmm.  are they really going to raise interest rates?:

cypherdoc
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September 18, 2014, 03:22:51 AM
 #12296

i'll be darned.  is Apple making an effort?:

“Unlike our competitors, Apple cannot bypass your passcode and therefore cannot access this data,” Apple said on its Web site. “So it’s not technically feasible for us to respond to government warrants for the extraction of this data from devices in their possession running iOS 8.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/2014/09/17/2612af58-3ed2-11e4-b03f-de718edeb92f_story.html
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September 18, 2014, 03:27:02 AM
 #12297

I remember when 1 bitcoin was worth more then 1 ounce of gold crazy times.

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September 18, 2014, 03:33:36 AM
 #12298

I remember when 1 bitcoin was worth more then 1 ounce of gold crazy times.

just briefly.  i remember sitting there watching Bitcoin ascend to meet gold.  what a thrill.  it was the culmination of 2.5 yrs of posting about it.  if there was one thing that i could point to that capped the rally @1200 back in Dec it was Satoshi daring to touch the face of gold.  traders immediately sold it off and took profits as the once considered impossible occurred.  we've had a wicked retrace since then but i'm convinced the story is not over and that we will go back up and touch it again.
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September 18, 2014, 04:43:38 AM
 #12299


In a perfect pure ideal honest world, NXT should reset the chain and develop fully in the open, with provable builds and a better early stake allocation that pays attention to the Central Banker Controls The Timeline Problem.  More honest projects these days run a test chain for months, and then launch once most problems are hammered out, and constructive criticism from the tech community has been incorporated.

Is this post for real? You want to reset the blockchain of a coin with 40million market cap that has been running on mainnet without problems for months?

Yes.  Quite serious.

Proof-of-Stake has serious problems, that must be mitigated.  Stakeholders in PoS control consensus.  That means they control what transactions may, or may not, be permitted into the chain.  They are the 100% gatekeepers to the chain.

If you have a tiny initial distribution -- just 8 people holding 40% of a certain coin for example, just 64 people getting the rest -- then the central bankers are in place, for life.  It is screwed from the start (unless, against their economic interests, the major stakeholders divest their stakes "fairly").

Proof-Of-Stake is fundamentally not permissionless.  In contrast, building a mining ASIC might be expensive, but it is doable to anyone in the world with a computer engineering background, and some money.  You don't need permission from existing bitcoin holders, to make more bitcoin.

Jeff Garzik, bitcoin core dev team and BitPay engineer; opinions are my own, not my employer.
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September 18, 2014, 04:57:57 AM
 #12300

I remember when 1 bitcoin was worth more then 1 ounce of gold crazy times.

just briefly.  i remember sitting there watching Bitcoin ascend to meet gold.  what a thrill.  it was the culmination of 2.5 yrs of posting about it.  if there was one thing that i could point to that capped the rally @1200 back in Dec it was Satoshi daring to touch the face of gold.  traders immediately sold it off and took profits as the once considered impossible occurred.  we've had a wicked retrace since then but i'm convinced the story is not over and that we will go back up and touch it again.

What makes you think we'll see this again?
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