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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807631 times)
Adrian-x
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September 17, 2014, 06:33:09 PM
 #12261

..  My real problem with PoS though is that transaction fees are awarded to those who already have high stake rather than those who are providing hardware.

Not that one needs to provided hardware but money should go to those who provided valued work by having to make value judgments in production and the creation of immutable money rules is arguably the most valuable work given the history of money abuse.

When PoS systems solve the problem in bold in a way that creates a functional economy I'll give it some more attention. But for now PoS is more like a better run fiat ponzi, bad for the producers in an economy good for the Money masters.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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chriswilmer
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September 17, 2014, 06:35:25 PM
 #12262

Boom.  usually the first move is the wrong move.

What did the FOMC say? Can anyone summarize?
thezerg
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September 17, 2014, 06:39:24 PM
 #12263

well, here's the good news.

in terms of instantaneous reactions, Bitcoin hasn't budged an inch. 

which may, in the broader picture, argue for Bitcoin as the ultimate hedge against mayhem in the broader markets.

and also argues against gold & silver as well, as we see it whipping around like a stuck pig right along with everything else.

Some proof that Bitcoin is a noncorrelated asset is going to encourage certain classes of investment so that is great news.  

Unrelated: Do any of you understand the variability of the hash rate graph (posted a few msgs ago)?  Are those machines really being turned off and on?  Instead, I'm thinking that it is an artifact of the data collection methodology -- if you imagine that this difficulty graph is extracted from block discovery rates, normal variation in block discovery times would cause artificial jitter in the hash rate graph that is proportion to the hash rate.  Anyone have a graph of hash rate shares submitted to a large pool?  Does it also show these jitters?

If this is the case, blockchain.info should really average the values to remove this artifact...
KJO
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September 17, 2014, 06:42:39 PM
 #12264

Boom.  usually the first move is the wrong move.

What did the FOMC say? Can anyone summarize?

FOMC Sept 17, 2014:

Policy Normalization Principles and Plans

During its recent meetings, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) discussed ways to normalize the stance of monetary policy and the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings. The discussions were part of prudent planning and do not imply that normalization will necessarily begin soon. The Committee continues to judge that many of the normalization principles that it adopted in June 2011 remain applicable. However, in light of the changes in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio since 2011 and enhancements in the tools the Committee will have available to implement policy during normalization, the Committee has concluded that some aspects of the eventual normalization process will likely differ from those specified earlier. The Committee also has agreed that it is appropriate at this time to provide additional information regarding its normalization plans. All FOMC participants but one agreed on the following key elements of the approach they intend to implement when it becomes appropriate to begin normalizing the stance of monetary policy:

    The Committee will determine the timing and pace of policy normalization–meaning steps to raise the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates to more normal levels and to reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings–so as to promote its statutory mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
        When economic conditions and the economic outlook warrant a less accommodative monetary policy, the Committee will raise its target range for the federal funds rate.
        During normalization, the Federal Reserve intends to move the federal funds rate into the target range set by the FOMC primarily by adjusting the interest rate it pays on excess reserve balances.
        During normalization, the Federal Reserve intends to use an overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility and other supplementary tools as needed to help control the federal funds rate. The Committee will use an overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility only to the extent necessary and will phase it out when it is no longer needed to help control the federal funds rate.
    The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings in a gradual and predictable manner primarily by ceasing to reinvest repayments of principal on securities held in the SOMA.
        The Committee expects to cease or commence phasing out reinvestments after it begins increasing the target range for the federal funds rate; the timing will depend on how economic and financial conditions and the economic outlook evolve.
        The Committee currently does not anticipate selling agency mortgage-backed securities as part of the normalization process, although limited sales might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate residual holdings. The timing and pace of any sales would be communicated to the public in advance.
    The Committee intends that the Federal Reserve will, in the longer run, hold no more securities than necessary to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively, and that it will hold primarily Treasury securities, thereby minimizing the effect of Federal Reserve holdings on the allocation of credit across sectors of the economy.
    The Committee is prepared to adjust the details of its approach to policy normalization in light of economic and financial developments.

Paper gold plunges.
thezerg
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September 17, 2014, 06:43:05 PM
 #12265

Boom.  usually the first move is the wrong move.

What did the FOMC say? Can anyone summarize?

tldr: tapering to $5 bill mortgage purch, $10bill treasuries.

...that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions...

Beginning in October, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $5 billion per month rather than $10 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month.
cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 06:44:58 PM
 #12266

Boom.  usually the first move is the wrong move.

What did the FOMC say? Can anyone summarize?


    *FED TO END QE PROGRAM AT NEXT MEETING IF OUTLOOK HOLDS, RELEASES EXIT STRATEGY GUIDELINES
    *FED WILL USE IOER RATE TO MOVE FED FUNDS INTO TARGET RANGE
    *FED TO USE OVERNIGHT-REVERSE REPO `AS NEEDED' IN EXIT
    *FIRST RATE RISE SEEN IN 2015 BY 14 FED OFFICIALS VS 12 IN JUNE
    *FED KEEPS 'CONSIDERABLE TIME' PLEDGE FOR LOW RATES POST-QE
    *FED SEES MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE AT 1.375% AT END OF 2015
    *FED SAYS TIMING OF REINVESTMENT PHASE-OUT IS ECONOMY-DEPENDENT
    *FED SAYS INFLATION `RUNNING BELOW' FOMC'S LONG-RUN GOAL
    *FED REPEATS SIGNIFICANT UNDERUTILIZATION IN LABOR MARKETS
    *FED SAYS ECONOMY EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE, LABOR MKT IMPROVED
    *FISHER, PLOSSER DISSENT ON FOMC VOTE ON FORWARD GUIDANCE
chriswilmer
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September 17, 2014, 06:45:56 PM
 #12267

Boom.  usually the first move is the wrong move.

What did the FOMC say? Can anyone summarize?

tldr: tapering to $5 bill mortgage purch, $10bill treasuries.

...that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions...

Beginning in October, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $5 billion per month rather than $10 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month.

Thanks. So, this isn't a commitment though right? It's an "intention to taper"?
chriswilmer
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September 17, 2014, 06:46:19 PM
 #12268

Boom.  usually the first move is the wrong move.

What did the FOMC say? Can anyone summarize?


    *FED TO END QE PROGRAM AT NEXT MEETING IF OUTLOOK HOLDS, RELEASES EXIT STRATEGY GUIDELINES
    *FED WILL USE IOER RATE TO MOVE FED FUNDS INTO TARGET RANGE
    *FED TO USE OVERNIGHT-REVERSE REPO `AS NEEDED' IN EXIT
    *FIRST RATE RISE SEEN IN 2015 BY 14 FED OFFICIALS VS 12 IN JUNE
    *FED KEEPS 'CONSIDERABLE TIME' PLEDGE FOR LOW RATES POST-QE
    *FED SEES MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE AT 1.375% AT END OF 2015
    *FED SAYS TIMING OF REINVESTMENT PHASE-OUT IS ECONOMY-DEPENDENT
    *FED SAYS INFLATION `RUNNING BELOW' FOMC'S LONG-RUN GOAL
    *FED REPEATS SIGNIFICANT UNDERUTILIZATION IN LABOR MARKETS
    *FED SAYS ECONOMY EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE, LABOR MKT IMPROVED
    *FISHER, PLOSSER DISSENT ON FOMC VOTE ON FORWARD GUIDANCE


Also thanks.
cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 06:48:10 PM
 #12269

well, here's the good news.

in terms of instantaneous reactions, Bitcoin hasn't budged an inch. 

which may, in the broader picture, argue for Bitcoin as the ultimate hedge against mayhem in the broader markets.

and also argues against gold & silver as well, as we see it whipping around like a stuck pig right along with everything else.

i don't know but sometimes i have this bad habit of correlating significant news events with what i perceive to be turning points in charts. 

but today's FOMC mtg comes right on the day that the BTC price retests the 440 level (almost the bottom) after 9.5 mo of its longest bear mkt.

it would be fitting if we bottomed out now.
Adrian-x
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September 17, 2014, 06:48:27 PM
 #12270

I've always understood hashrate to be calculated on the rate of block discovery
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/11139/how-is-the-network-hash-rate-calculated (see answer 2)

But that said failures in keeping an internet connection up 24/7 and Maximum power draw running 24/7 without hardware failure, while mitigating DOS attacks does account for some variance.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 06:51:48 PM
 #12271

Boom.  usually the first move is the wrong move.

What did the FOMC say? Can anyone summarize?

tldr: tapering to $5 bill mortgage purch, $10bill treasuries.

...that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions...

Beginning in October, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $5 billion per month rather than $10 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month.

Thanks. So, this isn't a commitment though right? It's an "intention to taper"?

correct.  you never know with these ppl though.
cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 06:59:36 PM
 #12272

just read this paragraph and realize just what a dictator John Kerry perceives himself to be:

"Well, folks," he said, "ever since the end of the Cold War, forces have been unleashed that were tamped down for centuries by dictators, and that was complicated further by this little thing called the internet and the ability of people everywhere to communicate instantaneously and to have more information coming at them in one day than most people can process in months or a year."
Adrian-x
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September 17, 2014, 07:07:44 PM
 #12273

just read this paragraph and realize just what a dictator John Kerry perceives himself to be:

"Well, folks," he said, "ever since the end of the Cold War, forces have been unleashed that were tamped down for centuries by dictators, and that was complicated further by this little thing called the internet and the ability of people everywhere to communicate instantaneously and to have more information coming at them in one day than most people can process in months or a year."

Holy cow - so he believes he can process all this information and without changing his opinions over time, dictator is an understatement, this is a motive for internet censorship.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 07:17:35 PM
 #12274

gold rejecting off resistance.  should resume downtrend:

cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 07:25:32 PM
 #12275

"People have left the party as the gold story becomes boring for many investors," John Stephenson, portfolio manager at Stephenson & Co., told the news service.

"The world is not falling apart, and the market has shrugged off the political developments. At a time when higher interest rates are knocking at the door, people don't see the need for gold."


http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/UBS-gold-Fed-dollar/2014/09/16/id/594964/
inca
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September 17, 2014, 07:34:26 PM
 #12276

"People have left the party as the gold story becomes boring for many investors," John Stephenson, portfolio manager at Stephenson & Co., told the news service.

"The world is not falling apart, and the market has shrugged off the political developments. At a time when higher interest rates are knocking at the door, people don't see the need for gold."


http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/UBS-gold-Fed-dollar/2014/09/16/id/594964/

I did sell almost all of my gold earlier this year in tranches. I will keep a small %. Markets are buoyed by one thing and one thing only - expectation of central bank buying. I would be extremely surprised if the fed actually taper QE significantly. After all a rising interest rate will hammer asset prices and who the heck is going to buy the bonds!?
sidhujag
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September 17, 2014, 10:24:08 PM
 #12277

gold rejecting off resistance.  should resume downtrend:



1310! Its just where the candlesticks are pointing.. we shall see.

Said this in 2012... probably earlier too... http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=380828#post5957650

USDx and Stock market leaving the station together... probably 32k dow and 90-95 usdx atleast.
cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 10:35:40 PM
 #12278

gold rejecting off resistance.  should resume downtrend:



1310!

Wrong direction
cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 11:04:02 PM
 #12279

gold rejecting off resistance.  should resume downtrend:



1310! Its just where the candlesticks are pointing.. we shall see.

Said this in 2012... probably earlier too... http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=380828#post5957650

USDx and Stock market leaving the station together... probably 32k dow and 90-95 usdx atleast.

dude!  gold sinking further after hours!

1210 incoming!

cypherdoc
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September 17, 2014, 11:06:41 PM
 #12280

clearly POW is failing:

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