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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805135 times)
thezerg
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September 19, 2014, 08:50:52 PM
 #12421

pffft forget it. I wont tell you any absolute numbers. I also dont need to know if and how rich you are.

Fact is that I outperformed B&H by factor 1.5-2.0.
Orders of magnitude is wrong as I mistyped this and corrected it already in the original thread.

Ok, since B&H from $0.60-$1200  is a 200,000% return, then your out performance amounts to 300,000-400,000%, or with a not unreasonable 10000BTC, $1.8M-2.4M?

notice that 10000 BTC at the top (1200) would be 12M to 24M not 1.2M to 2.4M...

I don't care about S3052's personal performance, I'm more aiming my comments at some of the extremely vocal ppl who inhabit the wall observer.  Personally, I don't think that it has been very hard to beat B&H in this market.  I did so with the extremely small % I was willing to put in bitfinex and bitstamp...  You can even look back into my post history to show this (if you want to torture yourselves) b/c I have made about 5-10 posts that imply a trade in 3 years.

TBH I think wall street on average is a bunch of idiots -- or more accurately, they lack the edge of actually knowing something other than finance.  For example, I avoided the tech bubble b/c I am in tech, bought stocks post 9/11 and all the way down the 08 rabbit hole.



Lol, you're right, 12M.

I guess I am so blown away I can't think straight.  Wink

But I think that personal investment in Bitcoin from 2010 to 2012 had a lot to do with personal risk appetite and time to figure out how to acquire coins than any reasoned % of salary or net worth.  So likely S3052 invested well under $6000 as that amount is not "throw away" money for anyone who is still salaried.

EDIT: ok let me qualify that to "working for a salary" as opposed to working b/c you want to and incidentally receiving a salary.
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September 19, 2014, 08:56:50 PM
 #12422

well under $6000 as that amount is not "throw away" money for anyone who is still salaried.
Depends on salary.
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September 19, 2014, 09:02:14 PM
 #12423

Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

There are huge side effects:
http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/soil-erosion-and-degradation

That's important but the kicker is overall economic growth, we're moving from a meme of more to a meme of better. The problem is the centers of control are working from the ideology of Co opting / controlling the supply of more. Monopolies have no value when people find alternatives,  micro electronics, alternate energy and food security technologies like aquaponics (oh and money) are reshaping everything.

Forget it, Adrian.

In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) is the proposition that as technology progresses, the increase in efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.[1] In 1865, the English economist William Stanley Jevons observed that technological improvements that increased the efficiency of coal-use led to the increased consumption of coal in a wide range of industries. He argued that, contrary to common intuition, technological improvements could not be relied upon to reduce fuel consumption.[2]

The issue has been re-examined by modern economists studying consumption rebound effects from improved energy efficiency. In addition to reducing the amount needed for a given use, improved efficiency lowers the relative cost of using a resource, which tends to increase the quantity of the resource demanded, potentially counteracting any savings from increased efficiency. Additionally, increased efficiency accelerates economic growth, further increasing the demand for resources. The Jevons paradox occurs when the effect from increased demand predominates, causing resource use to increase


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

I'm aware of Jevons_paradox, but much smarter people than me (Satosi) know it's only supply and demand that brings it into equilibrium. The divergence in usage as a result of innovation also express it's self in an economy as art and culture ultimately this is enriched experiences.

We won't find a comfortable equilibrium with constant economic growth as managed under the target of central banks.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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September 19, 2014, 09:02:32 PM
 #12424

well under $6000 as that amount is not "throw away" money for anyone who is still salaried.
Depends on salary.

I already addressed this. He's got a good day job.
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September 19, 2014, 09:39:56 PM
 #12425

well under $6000 as that amount is not "throw away" money for anyone who is still salaried.
Depends on salary.

I already addressed this. He's got a good day job.

ok, let's do it your way.  let's say he's got a low salary and only put $600 to buy 1000BTC.

at 300,000-400,000% return, which he's already claimed, he'd turn that into $1.8M-2.4M.  see, he's rich.

btw, i don't get it.  this is the title of his thread  "#1 Bitcoin and Altcoin Price Forecasts (+1,492% gains, +750% more than B&H)" and i think he downward adjusted those numbers based on other ppl's criticism.
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September 19, 2014, 09:50:08 PM
 #12426

you forget that I distributed a lot of coins via donations along the way and bitcoinica hack

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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September 19, 2014, 09:53:42 PM
 #12427

you forget that I distributed a lot of coins via donations along the way and bitcoinica hack

or maybe given all the inconsistencies one finds scattered about in your claims, it's simply a matter of false advertising?
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September 20, 2014, 03:18:38 AM
 #12428

so who sold under $400?
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September 20, 2014, 03:28:06 AM
 #12429

recap end of day silver. 

geezuz, just look at that!  icebreaker and Goat are gonna be rich!  this is what happens when you complete the 3rd stage of criticality:



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September 20, 2014, 03:34:24 AM
 #12430

actually, this one is much prettier where i've drawn the 2 yr chart with the 3rd breach @18.17.  note how red candle just punched right thru on volume.  just beautiful.  no wonder ZSL simultaneously punched UP thru 2 resistance levels in the same day:

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September 20, 2014, 03:44:05 AM
 #12431

note the $DXY finished just a smidge above resistance at the close.  thats good for the USD.  let's see if we blast off Monday morning as technically it's freely cleared this level.  right now, i think the daily cycle bottom got put in on 9/16.  if so, it should blast off UP, while driving everything else down:

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September 20, 2014, 03:57:47 AM
 #12432

uh oh.  moar blackhole sh*t:

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September 20, 2014, 04:00:47 AM
 #12433

uh oh
vipgelsi
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September 20, 2014, 04:07:07 AM
 #12434

If gold goes lower i will trade some bitcoins for some ounces of it. Cool

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September 20, 2014, 04:11:01 AM
 #12435

If gold goes lower i will trade some bitcoins for some ounces of it. Cool

that's the spirit.

just make sure you wear thick gloves.
cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 04:19:44 AM
 #12436

nice OKCoin bid wall there.
cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 04:20:06 AM
 #12437

oh yes
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September 20, 2014, 04:21:32 AM
 #12438

oh yes

listen to me.  i sound like i'm having an orgasm.
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September 20, 2014, 05:58:42 AM
 #12439

The market cap is now below both "Metcalfe Value" estimates (num TXs  / num addrs)--something that hasn't happened since early 2013.  Note that I'm taking the 7-day moving average of each time series, so the recent drop in price hasn't been fully "averaged in" (i.e., if the price stays low, the divergence between Metcalfe value and market cap will grow).





Peter R. much appreciated for this update Smiley

Have you considered fitting onto a long term network adoption curve? Like say a sigmoid with final market cap at $2 trillion? Or similarly with a final target saturated transaction network or similar?

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September 20, 2014, 07:08:27 AM
 #12440

2 trillion is either way too high or way to low.   If bitcoin passes 1 trillion valuation then it will be worth more then any single public stock so it will likely go on to at least duplicate/replace golds value which is about 10 trillion.
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