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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1933188 times)
marcus_of_augustus
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September 20, 2014, 05:58:42 AM
 #12421

The market cap is now below both "Metcalfe Value" estimates (num TXs  / num addrs)--something that hasn't happened since early 2013.  Note that I'm taking the 7-day moving average of each time series, so the recent drop in price hasn't been fully "averaged in" (i.e., if the price stays low, the divergence between Metcalfe value and market cap will grow).





Peter R. much appreciated for this update Smiley

Have you considered fitting onto a long term network adoption curve? Like say a sigmoid with final market cap at $2 trillion? Or similarly with a final target saturated transaction network or similar?

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September 20, 2014, 07:08:27 AM
 #12422

2 trillion is either way too high or way to low.   If bitcoin passes 1 trillion valuation then it will be worth more then any single public stock so it will likely go on to at least duplicate/replace golds value which is about 10 trillion.
Zarathustra
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September 20, 2014, 07:15:41 AM
 #12423

Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

There are huge side effects:
http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/soil-erosion-and-degradation

That's important but the kicker is overall economic growth, we're moving from a meme of more to a meme of better. The problem is the centers of control are working from the ideology of Co opting / controlling the supply of more. Monopolies have no value when people find alternatives,  micro electronics, alternate energy and food security technologies like aquaponics (oh and money) are reshaping everything.

Forget it, Adrian.

In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) is the proposition that as technology progresses, the increase in efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.[1] In 1865, the English economist William Stanley Jevons observed that technological improvements that increased the efficiency of coal-use led to the increased consumption of coal in a wide range of industries. He argued that, contrary to common intuition, technological improvements could not be relied upon to reduce fuel consumption.[2]

The issue has been re-examined by modern economists studying consumption rebound effects from improved energy efficiency. In addition to reducing the amount needed for a given use, improved efficiency lowers the relative cost of using a resource, which tends to increase the quantity of the resource demanded, potentially counteracting any savings from increased efficiency. Additionally, increased efficiency accelerates economic growth, further increasing the demand for resources. The Jevons paradox occurs when the effect from increased demand predominates, causing resource use to increase


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

I'm aware of Jevons_paradox, but much smarter people than me (Satosi) know it's only supply and demand that brings it into equilibrium. The divergence in usage as a result of innovation also express it's self in an economy as art and culture ultimately this is enriched experiences.

We won't find a comfortable equilibrium with constant economic growth as managed under the target of central banks.


With or without central banks: "a comfortable equilibrium with constant economic growth" is an oxymoron.
An economy is a collectivist organisation (state bastard), and:

"Essentially, the economy is an engine that transforms resources into waste."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ugo-bardi/2011/07/22/entropy-peak-oil-and-stoic-philosophy-part-2

Zangelbert Bingledack
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September 20, 2014, 08:13:50 AM
 #12424

Re: Jevons Paradox

Time for this video again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcWkN4ngR2Y
cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 11:47:43 AM
 #12425

oh yes

listen to me.  i sound like i'm having an orgasm.

Oh yes yes! I
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September 20, 2014, 02:55:52 PM
 #12426

reaching for new heights.  that is really good news:

cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 02:58:46 PM
 #12427

and its companion:

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September 20, 2014, 03:02:10 PM
 #12428

the Bitcoin Virus won't stop replicating:

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September 20, 2014, 03:03:59 PM
 #12429

nor will the Nash Equilibrium stop equilibrating:

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September 20, 2014, 03:18:42 PM
 #12430

localBitcoins solidly contributing.  looks long lasting:

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September 20, 2014, 03:35:45 PM
 #12431

this is one disturbing piece of propaganda that has nothing to do with Bitcoin.  note the concept of trapping ppl into a digital cash system with negative interest rates.  this is Ken Rogoff's (Harvard economist) idea:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2gxr93/the_economist_the_benefits_of_getting_rid_of_cash/
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September 20, 2014, 03:42:28 PM
 #12432

no better place for a bottom  Wink

so price ended up slicing down thru the support levels in the 440 range w/o difficulty.  oftentimes those throw unders cause the final capitulation of the weak hands to sell.  now that we're bouncing, the flipside key will be if price can slice back UP thru what was once support and is now resistance.  if we do get over 440, it should be off to the races to the upside to around the next resistance level of 600.  i think it happens:

Adrian-x
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September 20, 2014, 03:42:57 PM
 #12433

Before the agricultural revolution, it took humanity about one million years on average to develop enough infrastructure/capability to support an additional one million humans living at subsistence levels. After the agricultural revolution, that changed to talking only a few hundred years. Now, after the industrial revolution, that takes 90 minutes on average.

There are huge side effects:
http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/soil-erosion-and-degradation

That's important but the kicker is overall economic growth, we're moving from a meme of more to a meme of better. The problem is the centers of control are working from the ideology of Co opting / controlling the supply of more. Monopolies have no value when people find alternatives,  micro electronics, alternate energy and food security technologies like aquaponics (oh and money) are reshaping everything.

Forget it, Adrian.

In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) is the proposition that as technology progresses, the increase in efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.[1] In 1865, the English economist William Stanley Jevons observed that technological improvements that increased the efficiency of coal-use led to the increased consumption of coal in a wide range of industries. He argued that, contrary to common intuition, technological improvements could not be relied upon to reduce fuel consumption.[2]

The issue has been re-examined by modern economists studying consumption rebound effects from improved energy efficiency. In addition to reducing the amount needed for a given use, improved efficiency lowers the relative cost of using a resource, which tends to increase the quantity of the resource demanded, potentially counteracting any savings from increased efficiency. Additionally, increased efficiency accelerates economic growth, further increasing the demand for resources. The Jevons paradox occurs when the effect from increased demand predominates, causing resource use to increase


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

I'm aware of Jevons_paradox, but much smarter people than me (Satosi) know it's only supply and demand that brings it into equilibrium. The divergence in usage as a result of innovation also express it's self in an economy as art and culture ultimately this is enriched experiences.

We won't find a comfortable equilibrium with constant economic growth as managed under the target of central banks.


With or without central banks: "a comfortable equilibrium with constant economic growth" is an oxymoron.
An economy is a collectivist organisation (state bastard), and:

"Essentially, the economy is an engine that transforms resources into waste."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ugo-bardi/2011/07/22/entropy-peak-oil-and-stoic-philosophy-part-2

An economy is by extension part of an ecosystem, entropy is a feature, one which drives the evolution of life. Waste as president in you referenced material is a byproduct of an economy artificially stimulated by monetarist policy. In nature and by extension a deflationary economy waste is just another input not inefficient use of resources (I.e. waste = food.)

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
Adrian-x
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September 20, 2014, 03:46:09 PM
 #12434

the Bitcoin Virus won't stop replicating:



Someone over at blockchin reads this thread, that chart looks a lot more smooth.
Still this hashing increase is in my view is phenomenal.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
BeeTeeSea
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September 20, 2014, 03:49:28 PM
 #12435

True, we will see a 650 price before next year
cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 03:51:22 PM
 #12436

the Bitcoin Virus won't stop replicating:



Someone over at blockchin reads this thread, that chart looks a lot more smooth.
Still this hashing increase is in my view is phenomenal.

no, that's just me clicking on the 7d avg button instead.
cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 04:00:40 PM
 #12437

top 10 nations for Bitcoin use via merchants/population:

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112561/top-10-nations-in-bitcoin-merchant-adoption

note:  i actually consider the US a laggard
cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 04:02:09 PM
 #12438

BTC-e is gonna get squeezed
cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 04:15:42 PM
 #12439

yes, oh yes!
cypherdoc
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September 20, 2014, 04:23:50 PM
 #12440

440 criticality incoming
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