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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804142 times)
Erdogan
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September 10, 2014, 08:19:14 PM
 #11841

Another commonly used indicator (for early deflation detection), is the Caterpillar company. It expands its profit (and debt to capital ratio), but the sales of machinery is down. This tells me that the company, like most large companies, is transforming from a production company to something like a bank.

http://www.caterpillar.com/en/investors/quarterly-results.html

I would be interested in the actual tonnage of machinery produced, which I suspect is also down, but I am too lazy to look for it now.
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100 satoshis -> ISO code


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September 10, 2014, 08:30:59 PM
 #11842

Krugman is now hedging:

Do you think Bitcoin will gain momentum and become a viable currency?

No. I could be wrong, but Bitcoin is harder to use than other forms of electronic payment, and lacks any fundamental source of value (unlike dollars, which can be used to pay taxes). It’s possible that Bitcoin will somehow become self-supporting, but for now my guess is that it’s largely a fad that will collapse one of these days.


http://www.princetonmagazine.com/paul-krugman/

This is the error which is obvious to many here, but not many mainstream economists.

Bitcoin has enormous fundamental value because of its utility. Rapid, global, transfer of monetary value without third-party intervention, is fundamentally of value. The security of the system, through mining, and the cap on total issuance are pillars which makes the technology monetarily viable.

There is a subtlety here: the stored value of Bitcoin derives from its ability to transfer value.

Eventually Krugman will figure this out, but it will be hard to accept as he will still cling onto the inflation-is-good meme.

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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL


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September 10, 2014, 08:36:10 PM
 #11843

Krugman is now hedging:

Do you think Bitcoin will gain momentum and become a viable currency?

No. I could be wrong, but Bitcoin is harder to use than other forms of electronic payment, and lacks any fundamental source of value (unlike dollars, which can be used to pay taxes). It’s possible that Bitcoin will somehow become self-supporting, but for now my guess is that it’s largely a fad that will collapse one of these days.


http://www.princetonmagazine.com/paul-krugman/

This is the error which is obvious to many here, but not many mainstream economists.

Bitcoin has enormous fundamental value because of its utility. Rapid, global, transfer of monetary value without third-party intervention, is fundamentally of value. The security of the system, through mining, and the cap on total issuance are pillars which makes the technology monetarily viable.

There is a subtlety here: the stored value of Bitcoin derives from its ability to transfer value.

Eventually Krugman will figure this out, but it will be hard to accept as he will still cling onto the inflation-is-good meme.

I think Erik Voorhees' open letter to Peter Schiff on this subject is very good.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1rxmk3/my_open_letter_to_peter_schiff_followup_from_the
cypherdoc
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September 10, 2014, 08:37:11 PM
 #11844

Krugman is now hedging:

Do you think Bitcoin will gain momentum and become a viable currency?

No. I could be wrong, but Bitcoin is harder to use than other forms of electronic payment, and lacks any fundamental source of value (unlike dollars, which can be used to pay taxes). It’s possible that Bitcoin will somehow become self-supporting, but for now my guess is that it’s largely a fad that will collapse one of these days.


http://www.princetonmagazine.com/paul-krugman/

This is the error which is obvious to many here, but not many mainstream economists.

Bitcoin has enormous fundamental value because of its utility. Rapid, global, transfer of monetary value without third-party intervention, is fundamentally of value. The security of the system, through mining, and the cap on total issuance are pillars which makes the technology monetarily viable.

There is a subtlety here: the stored value of Bitcoin derives from its ability to transfer value.

Eventually Krugman will figure this out, but it will be hard to accept as he will still cling onto the inflation-is-good meme.

don't overlook a few posts up:



I don't like viewing bitcoin as primarily a payments-tech product. I feel the conversation has shifted largely to how bitcoin excels at executing online payments, which is true, and which I've myself pointed out to skeptics for a long time. The reality, though, is that the core proposition is control of your own money, an open ecosystem, and a mathematically known money supply (as we all appreciate). It just so happens that bitcoin is currently superior to virtually all payment networks as well, but that probably won't be the case forever. Legacy payments will probably get much better (more secure, faster, cheaper) over time, and then it should be clear that bitcoin's real distinction lies in the monetary characteristics. Perhaps ApplePay will re-shift the conversation.


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September 10, 2014, 08:42:25 PM
 #11845

Krugman serves the ruling class who derive their wealth and lifestyle from their ability to be the first spenders of newly-printed money.

Of course he's never going to acknowledge that Bitcoin's limited supply is what makes it superior - his job is to help keep the hoi polloi ignorant of how they are being robbed.

The job of an economist is to cloak theft in the mantle of science to reduce the cost of keeping the masses compliant.
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September 10, 2014, 08:47:05 PM
 #11846

Another commonly used indicator (for early deflation detection), is the Caterpillar company. It expands its profit (and debt to capital ratio), but the sales of machinery is down. This tells me that the company, like most large companies, is transforming from a production company to something like a bank.

http://www.caterpillar.com/en/investors/quarterly-results.html

I would be interested in the actual tonnage of machinery produced, which I suspect is also down, but I am too lazy to look for it now.

thanks for reminding me of them.  i usually follow them too but with what i think are all the stock mkt manipulations, i'm not sure how their stock price is reflective of what actually is going on other than entrenched Fed easing expectations or outright PPT pumping.

volume looks sick as hell and we have a lower high but what else is new considering the overall stock mkt indices looking like shit too:

marcus_of_augustus
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September 10, 2014, 09:03:57 PM
 #11847

Krugman is now hedging:

Do you think Bitcoin will gain momentum and become a viable currency?

No. I could be wrong, but Bitcoin is harder to use than other forms of electronic payment, and lacks any fundamental source of value (unlike dollars, which can be used to pay taxes). It’s possible that Bitcoin will somehow become self-supporting, but for now my guess is that it’s largely a fad that will collapse one of these days.


http://www.princetonmagazine.com/paul-krugman/

This is the error which is obvious to many here, but not many mainstream economists.

Bitcoin has enormous fundamental value because of its utility. Rapid, global, transfer of monetary value without third-party intervention, is fundamentally of value. The security of the system, through mining, and the cap on total issuance are pillars which makes the technology monetarily viable.

There is a subtlety here: the stored value of Bitcoin derives from its ability to transfer value.

Eventually Krugman will figure this out, but it will be hard to accept as he will still cling onto the inflation-is-good meme.

Krugman needs to read more John Nash ... money falls into the subset of Game Theoretic studies "games with transferable utility"

http://sites.stat.psu.edu/~babu/nash/money.pdf

... to understand how bitcoin derives value purely from utility.

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September 10, 2014, 09:08:50 PM
 #11848

the ultimate deflators deflate moar:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-09/historic-first-bank-japan-monetizes-debt-negative-rates
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September 10, 2014, 09:16:25 PM
 #11849

Krugman is now hedging:

Do you think Bitcoin will gain momentum and become a viable currency?

No. I could be wrong, but Bitcoin is harder to use than other forms of electronic payment, and lacks any fundamental source of value (unlike dollars, which can be used to pay taxes). It’s possible that Bitcoin will somehow become self-supporting, but for now my guess is that it’s largely a fad that will collapse one of these days.


http://www.princetonmagazine.com/paul-krugman/

This is the error which is obvious to many here, but not many mainstream economists.

Bitcoin has enormous fundamental value because of its utility. Rapid, global, transfer of monetary value without third-party intervention, is fundamentally of value. The security of the system, through mining, and the cap on total issuance are pillars which makes the technology monetarily viable.

There is a subtlety here: the stored value of Bitcoin derives from its ability to transfer value.

Eventually Krugman will figure this out, but it will be hard to accept as he will still cling onto the inflation-is-good meme.

I think Erik Voorhees' open letter to Peter Schiff on this subject is very good.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1rxmk3/my_open_letter_to_peter_schiff_followup_from_the


nice one from erik. needed that, thx  Smiley
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September 10, 2014, 09:27:32 PM
 #11850

The cheapest Android phone can sufficiently operate a Bitcoin wallet, as long as it has a camera. Apple Pay will be on the newest devices only and which third world bum has a credit card (compared to each first world bum  Cool ).

the best chance ApplePay has is in the US as it controls 40% of smartphones sold here.  but you're right, worldwide, Bitcoin + Android should still win.  and, as Apple continues to arguably lose US marketshare to Android, Bitcoin + Android should win here too long term as the fees involved with cc tx's hasn't changed.  in fact, in Oct 2015, liability for stolen cc's presented and accepted at merchant stores shifts to the merchant away from the banks and payment processors.


I don't like viewing bitcoin as primarily a payments-tech product. I feel the conversation has shifted largely to how bitcoin excels at executing online payments, which is true, and which I've myself pointed out to skeptics for a long time. The reality, though, is that the core proposition is control of your own money, an open ecosystem, and a mathematically known money supply (as we all appreciate). It just so happens that bitcoin is currently superior to virtually all payment networks as well, but that probably won't be the case forever. Legacy payments will probably get much better (more secure, faster, cheaper) over time, and then it should be clear that bitcoin's real distinction lies in the monetary characteristics. Perhaps ApplePay will re-shift the conversation.



I think it is important to highlight both points, Bitcoin as a non-governed (and extremely secure) transfer mechanism, and the "monetary characteristics" you mention. Keep in mind that not everybody is sold on the superiority of fixed supply, or at least, not enthusiastic enough about it alone to become a supporter - but the self-determination of your own finances aspect might be what makes him or her a supporter.  I know I belong to that group.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I can highly recommend Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, extremely fast, and one of the safest ways to store and use your bitcoins.
Executables are available on the Electrum homepage, so you can get a Bitcoin wallet up and running on your own computer in a few minutes.
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September 10, 2014, 09:37:59 PM
 #11851

Krugman is now hedging:

Do you think Bitcoin will gain momentum and become a viable currency?

No. I could be wrong, but Bitcoin is harder to use than other forms of electronic payment, and lacks any fundamental source of value (unlike dollars, which can be used to pay taxes). It’s possible that Bitcoin will somehow become self-supporting, but for now my guess is that it’s largely a fad that will collapse one of these days.


http://www.princetonmagazine.com/paul-krugman/

This is the error which is obvious to many here, but not many mainstream economists.

Bitcoin has enormous fundamental value because of its utility. Rapid, global, transfer of monetary value without third-party intervention, is fundamentally of value. The security of the system, through mining, and the cap on total issuance are pillars which makes the technology monetarily viable.

There is a subtlety here: the stored value of Bitcoin derives from its ability to transfer value.

Eventually Krugman will figure this out, but it will be hard to accept as he will still cling onto the inflation-is-good meme.

Krugman needs to read more John Nash ... money falls into the subset of Game Theoretic studies "games with transferable utility"

http://sites.stat.psu.edu/~babu/nash/money.pdf

... to understand how bitcoin derives value purely from utility.

hot damn marcus!  great find!  

i had no idea Nash was an Austrian.  this is must reading for all Bitcoiners and i find it very ironic given my independent contention a coupla months back on the Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium and its application to mining.

excellent!

edit: i'm gonna link your post to Twitter...
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September 10, 2014, 09:44:39 PM
 #11852

It was, see The fifth growth spurt from December 24, 2013 Smiley

I wish people would adopt this terminology because "bubble" now is even used by the people that don't believe one of the peaks in the growth represents a large overvaluation (which is the meaning of the word bubble).

Precisely my point: If falllling or other trolls talk about bubbles, I don't really mind. But it became the de facto standard term even by long-term supporters of Bitcoin, which is odd in my opinion, and maybe it's my Asperger's gland* acting up, but I don't like the abuse of the word 'bubble' that way.


* Yes, I know. Doesn't exist.

I'm guilty of using the dreaded term. In my defense: at some point I just accepted the term to be used differently in bitcoin land.

Will try to use "growth spurt" (kind of a tongue-breaker, ain't it?) from now on.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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September 10, 2014, 09:56:04 PM
 #11853

How many gas stations accept gold as payment? Because in USA and some other places they already are beginning to accept Bitcoins. If everything continues at this rate, you metal holders will get cold before than us.

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September 10, 2014, 10:00:46 PM
 #11854

WTF is this?

BBC: ISPs Should Assume Heavy VPN Users are Pirates

http://torrentfreak.com/bbc-isps-should-assume-heavy-vpn-users-are-pirates-140908/
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September 10, 2014, 10:03:48 PM
 #11855

from Reddit:

[–]Capt_Roger_Murdock 9 points 4 days ago:

Honestly, I see whatever Apple does in the payments space as largely irrelevant to whether or not Bitcoin will succeed. Bitcoin's real value proposition is not as a payment network that's superior to fiat payment networks. Bitcoin does have certain advantages in that regard, primarily censorship-resistance and the ability to do irreversible transfers. (Whether or not on-blockchain transactions will continue to have "low fees" as the network grows and the block reward shrinks is an open question. And the ability to facilitate "mobile payments" is nothing particularly special.) But where Bitcoin really shines is in the way it combines the reliable scarcity of a commodity like gold (the "store-of-value" aspect of money) with the transactional efficiency of a purely digital medium (the "medium-of-exchange" aspect of money). And so the real comparison is how does bitcoin's payment network compare to the "payment network" for gold (i.e. the process of passing around physical pieces of metal)? And the answer is pretty damn well.


highlight mine.
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September 10, 2014, 10:12:43 PM
 #11856

holy shit.  this is big. 

i'm having trouble drinking from the fire hose of good news:

Coinbase Launches Bitcoin Buying and Selling in 13 European Countries

http://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-launches-bitcoin-buying-selling-13-european-countries/
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September 10, 2014, 10:13:23 PM
 #11857

WTF is this?

BBC: ISPs Should Assume Heavy VPN Users are Pirates

http://torrentfreak.com/bbc-isps-should-assume-heavy-vpn-users-are-pirates-140908/

.. that is unqualified ignorance, is what it is. Mostly corporate workers connecting to employer servers are biggest users of VPNs.

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September 10, 2014, 10:16:24 PM
 #11858

holy shit.  this is big. 

i'm having trouble drinking from the fire hose of good news:

Coinbase Launches Bitcoin Buying and Selling in 13 European Countries

http://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-launches-bitcoin-buying-selling-13-european-countries/

Here's some more to drink up  Grin

http://www.coindesk.com/amagi-metals-ceo-bitcoin-replace-us-dollar/
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September 10, 2014, 10:19:06 PM
 #11859

holy shit.  this is big.  

i'm having trouble drinking from the fire hose of good news:

Coinbase Launches Bitcoin Buying and Selling in 13 European Countries

http://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-launches-bitcoin-buying-selling-13-european-countries/

Here's some more to drink up  Grin

http://www.coindesk.com/amagi-metals-ceo-bitcoin-replace-us-dollar/

gulp

that is good news but we need him to change the title to:

Amagi Metals CEO: Bitcoin Will Replace the US Dollar and Gold in My Lifetime
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September 10, 2014, 10:21:22 PM
 #11860

Haha agreed
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