Bitcoin Forum
December 05, 2016, 08:50:37 PM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

Pages: « 1 ... 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 [578] 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 ... 1560 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804763 times)
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1386


Crypto Kingdom (Creator)


View Profile
September 02, 2014, 06:39:19 PM
 #11541

Those "73 stakeholders" who were awarded all the Nxt coins that would ever exist were quite possibly 1 developer + 72 sock puppets.

That would conveniently explain why the NXT price did not stall sooner when it was being pumped, unlike for example the Monero price that is an actual product of market mechanism between thousands of actors.

1480971037
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480971037

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480971037
Reply with quote  #2

1480971037
Report to moderator
"You Asked For Change, We Gave You Coins" -- casascius
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1480971037
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480971037

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480971037
Reply with quote  #2

1480971037
Report to moderator
Erdogan
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 714



View Profile
September 02, 2014, 07:20:25 PM
 #11542

For those who care about the money velocity parameter, this might be of interest:

http://www.lse.ac.uk/economicHistory/pdf/FACTSPDF/1306Morgan.pdf

Basically, it is guesswork, derived from GDP and money supply.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 02, 2014, 07:24:55 PM
 #11543

What happened to the shorts vs usd swaps chart?

looks like an opportunity to me:

vuduchyld
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364


View Profile
September 02, 2014, 07:32:05 PM
 #11544

What happened to the shorts vs usd swaps chart?

looks like an opportunity to me:


I feel like a 3rd grader, but can you tell me what you see as an opportunity?  All I can get out of that is spaghetti.  You seem to be good at explaining things to non-trolls and I assure you, I am here to learn.
klee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1316



View Profile
September 02, 2014, 07:44:08 PM
 #11545

Those "73 stakeholders" who were awarded all the Nxt coins that would ever exist were quite possibly 1 developer + 72 sock puppets.

That would conveniently explain why the NXT price did not stall sooner when it was being pumped, unlike for example the Monero price that is an actual product of market mechanism between thousands of actors.
The price of NXT is constantly trying to pass for good the 0.0001 barrier and always collapses back to the 0.00005-0.00007 area because the whales (like me in the past) always sell big there. This has happened 3 or 4 times.

Check the DGEX chart history...

BTC: 1K9atu5zgz7izCMAynk5adBJ8Qn2YgS6nT
molecular
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2128



View Profile
September 02, 2014, 07:47:12 PM
 #11546

What happened to the shorts vs usd swaps chart?

looks like an opportunity to me:


I feel like a 3rd grader, but can you tell me what you see as an opportunity?  All I can get out of that is spaghetti.  You seem to be good at explaining things to non-trolls and I assure you, I am here to learn.

I think cypherdoc suggest to try to squeeze those shorts (represented by the red "BTC Swaps", the amount of BTC borrowed by people (and probably sold opening a short position). If we buy BTC hard enough - driving the price up - these shorts might be forcibly liquidated (the borrowed BTC bought back from the market) by the bitfinex platform to protect the lenders, which would drive the price up even more, maybe effecting a cascade.


PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
thefunkybits
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728



View Profile
September 02, 2014, 10:52:31 PM
 #11547

The gold bugs are slowly waking up...

http://fortwealth.com/blog/?p=5883

"There is an end to the manipulation here,  that is when these people have to buy into the Crypto at the low end,  competing with everyone else at the same time."

NewLiberty
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1064


Gresham's Lawyer


View Profile WWW
September 03, 2014, 01:41:39 AM
 #11548

What happened to the shorts vs usd swaps chart?

looks like an opportunity to me:


I feel like a 3rd grader, but can you tell me what you see as an opportunity?  All I can get out of that is spaghetti.  You seem to be good at explaining things to non-trolls and I assure you, I am here to learn.

I think cypherdoc suggest to try to squeeze those shorts (represented by the red "BTC Swaps", the amount of BTC borrowed by people (and probably sold opening a short position). If we buy BTC hard enough - driving the price up - these shorts might be forcibly liquidated (the borrowed BTC bought back from the market) by the bitfinex platform to protect the lenders, which would drive the price up even more, maybe effecting a cascade.


Or put more simply.
No one that bought BTC when swaps were over 10K lost money.
So if that thin red line hits 10K, mortgage the house and buy bitcoin.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
vuduchyld
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364


View Profile
September 03, 2014, 02:01:40 AM
 #11549

Aha.  OK, I get it.

Man, I get nervous when shorts go up around 8k because I assume I am not on the right end of information asymmetry.

I don't really care all that much about the current price, but a little run up might be nice.
NewLiberty
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1064


Gresham's Lawyer


View Profile WWW
September 03, 2014, 02:11:12 AM
 #11550

Aha.  OK, I get it.

Man, I get nervous when shorts go up around 8k because I assume I am not on the right end of information asymmetry.

I don't really care all that much about the current price, but a little run up might be nice.

In such circumstances, you should have the opposite emotion, or even better, no emotion.
Options contracts are a contrary indicator. 
The more options bought against your position, the better you position is.
Think about it.  After you do, if you still don't get it, let us know and we can break it down or find a link for you.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
Melbustus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1554



View Profile
September 03, 2014, 02:37:48 AM
 #11551

Aha.  OK, I get it.

Man, I get nervous when shorts go up around 8k because I assume I am not on the right end of information asymmetry.

I don't really care all that much about the current price, but a little run up might be nice.

In such circumstances, you should have the opposite emotion, or even better, no emotion.
...


Yeah. If you do a few things over your investing career, you'll be successful:
1) Be emotionless.
2) Do your due diligence and fundamentals analysis.
3) Incorporate new information rationally as it comes to light.
4) And the classic Warren Buffet line: Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

To be sure, you won't always win, but winning just a little more than 50% of the time translates to a good deal of success. And (also as Buffet says) you only need two or three truly great investment ideas in your lifetime in order to be fantastically successful as an investor.


Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
zeetubes
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 371


View Profile
September 03, 2014, 02:53:02 AM
 #11552

For those who care about the money velocity parameter, this might be of interest:

http://www.lse.ac.uk/economicHistory/pdf/FACTSPDF/1306Morgan.pdf

Basically, it is guesswork, derived from GDP and money supply.


Thanks for sharing.

""Quantitative” refers to a level of precision and exactitude we associate with the notion of measurement"

And hence 'Quantative Easing' refers to a reduction in both those attribues?

"...But we form a truer picture if we think of banks as the home of money,
and the circulation of money as a temporary excursion from that home.
If this be true, the circulation of money is not very different from the
circulation of checks. Each performs one, or at most, a few transactions
outside of the bank, and then returns home to report its circuit."

How do you think this will this pan out in the age of cryptocurrencies?

"Either velocity was a meaningful concept, but is variations were unpredictable, and so it provided no anchor or constraints; or it was merely the ratio of GDP to M-1B, and so provided no independent anchor or constraint."

An LSE peer reviewed paper shouldn't have a damn' typo in it.
iCEBREAKER
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1498


Crypto is the separation of Power and State.


View Profile WWW
September 03, 2014, 03:23:45 AM
 #11553

Frankfurt court bans Uber taxi services across Germany

Perhaps they shouldn't have chosen a German name for the company.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/02/us-uber-germany-ruling-idUSKBN0GX0OM20140902

Especially uber. Very touchy name.

Germans are so authoritarian in their approach to everything.  Even anti-fascism, ironically enough.   Roll Eyes

I hope these clever Israelis remove the Frankfurt Court fascists from Uber's neck and put them on their knees where they belong:

http://lazooz.org/wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Quote
La'Zooz is an open-source, decentralised and autonomous, collaborative transportation ecosystem, that is using cryptocurrency technology for establishing, coordinating and growing its community of users, developers, and promoters alike.

Hat tip: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2as9jb/an_uber_competitor_that_accepts_and_pays_out_in/

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
vuduchyld
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364


View Profile
September 03, 2014, 04:05:57 AM
 #11554


In such circumstances, you should have the opposite emotion, or even better, no emotion.
Options contracts are a contrary indicator. 
The more options bought against your position, the better you position is.
Think about it.  After you do, if you still don't get it, let us know and we can break it down or find a link for you.



Yeah. If you do a few things over your investing career, you'll be successful:
1) Be emotionless.
2) Do your due diligence and fundamentals analysis.
3) Incorporate new information rationally as it comes to light.
4) And the classic Warren Buffet line: Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

To be sure, you won't always win, but winning just a little more than 50% of the time translates to a good deal of success. And (also as Buffet says) you only need two or three truly great investment ideas in your lifetime in order to be fantastically successful as an investor.



Great replies, gentlemen.  Thank you. 

I think that nervous was a bad choice of words.  Maybe curious is better.  If there is one thing I'm definitely NOT, it's over-invested in crypto.  I sleep pretty well at night with crypto as a part of what I hope is a reasonably diverse portfolio.  My investment horizon is 2019-2020 (hard to imagine anything shorter, easy to imagine a longer time frame for me), although I do incorporate new information.  I have done some M2-based calculations to try to determine what I think might be a reasonable 2020 value--and I totally get that price and value are not the same in financial markets.  My feeling is that the price has dropped in the last 6 months, while the value has grown.  Overall, I think this is a great time to buy and I don't worry too much about timing and trying to catch bottoms (or tops).  It's not my strength. 

I'm still a little hesitant on the points that NewLiberty makes--will definitely find some reading about options contracts as a contrary indicator.  Thank you for that tip.  I just feel like BTC is a market where information asymmetry might even be greater than it is with US stocks.  I look around the table and I can't spot the sucker, and I know what that means. 

Again, I appreciate your thoughtful replies!
zeetubes
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 371


View Profile
September 03, 2014, 04:23:22 AM
 #11555

"I look around the table and I can't spot the sucker, and I know what that means."

Love it!!! Smiley
Melbustus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1554



View Profile
September 03, 2014, 05:18:42 AM
 #11556

...
My feeling is that the price has dropped in the last 6 months, while the value has grown. 

Agreed. Feels a lot like late-2011/early-2012 to me. Bubble blow off, recovering from a bunch of nasty stuff, yet steady ecosystem development and investment under the hood.


... I don't worry too much about timing and trying to catch bottoms (or tops).  It's not my strength. 

Likewise. I'm not good at the short-term.


...I just feel like BTC is a market where information asymmetry might even be greater than it is with US stocks.  I look around the table and I can't spot the sucker, and I know what that means. 

The information asymmetry issue is interesting. On one hand, it's an illiquid market, so if someone with money is making plans on either side of the boat, the subsequent move is going to be big, and you don't know about it. On the other hand, these are completely new waters that bridge computer science, finance, economics, markets, virality, network effects, politics, etc, etc... One's ability to simply think clearly and rationally about all of the above without any prejudice or preconceived notions should result in what amounts to some sort of informational - or at least educational - advantage in the domain.

And have you read the comments on mainstream-press articles about bitcoin? The folks who voice aggressive yet ignorant opinions (ie, most people) are the suckers (not just in bitcoin, but in life more generally). These people are not buying and/or are encouraging selling.

And I full well acknowledge that in the short-run, we bulls may in fact be the suckers. But the long-run looks like a clear +EV (but very high variance) situation to me.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 03, 2014, 05:55:27 AM
 #11557

UN High Commissioner: Mass Surveillance Violates International Law … and Snowden Should NOT Be Prosecuted

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/09/mass-surveillance-violates-u-s-law/
zeetubes
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 371


View Profile
September 03, 2014, 01:52:49 PM
 #11558

"Peter Warburton: The debasement of world currency: It is inflation, but not as we know it.

Being a young man, I was heavily into econometrics -- or economic tricks, as some would have it."

http://gata.org/node/8303/print

--
One of the best essays around. Written in 2001 and even though it's linked from Gata it doesn't focus on gold. Interestingly at the end he lists possible investments to look at but of course bitcoin wasn't around at the time. His criteria seem like a perfect match, for now at least. Gold doesn't make the cut, I assume because of the fifth criterion.

"The search is on for the perfect hedge.

What would be the ideal characteristics of such a numéraire? First, it would be in fixed physical supply. Second, it would be resistant to weather-related influences. Third, its ownership would be diffuse, rendering futile any attempt to restrict supply through a non-competitive structure. Fourth, it must be freely tradable. Fifth, there would be no futures or options markets attached to it.

Finally, I list some of the candidates, in no particular order. Each seems promising, yet none of them seems to me to satisfy fully all five of the requirements above.

Arable land with a dependable climate

Oil-refining capacity

Electricity generating capacity

Water-treatment capacity

Drinking water, bottled or piped

Coastal access, harbours and ports

Palladium/platinum/diamonds

Real estate in long-standing, distinctive locations

Antiques, fine art, stamps and coins

Commodities without futures and options markets

Could these be the winning investments of the early years of the 21st century?"


vuduchyld
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364


View Profile
September 03, 2014, 04:20:11 PM
 #11559

... But the long-run looks like a clear +EV (but very high variance) situation to me.


Couldn't agree more!
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 03, 2014, 04:32:03 PM
 #11560

"Peter Warburton: The debasement of world currency: It is inflation, but not as we know it.

Being a young man, I was heavily into econometrics -- or economic tricks, as some would have it."

http://gata.org/node/8303/print

--
One of the best essays around. Written in 2001 and even though it's linked from Gata it doesn't focus on gold. Interestingly at the end he lists possible investments to look at but of course bitcoin wasn't around at the time. His criteria seem like a perfect match, for now at least. Gold doesn't make the cut, I assume because of the fifth criterion.

"The search is on for the perfect hedge.

What would be the ideal characteristics of such a numéraire? First, it would be in fixed physical supply. Second, it would be resistant to weather-related influences. Third, its ownership would be diffuse, rendering futile any attempt to restrict supply through a non-competitive structure. Fourth, it must be freely tradable. Fifth, there would be no futures or options markets attached to it.

Finally, I list some of the candidates, in no particular order. Each seems promising, yet none of them seems to me to satisfy fully all five of the requirements above.

Arable land with a dependable climate

Oil-refining capacity

Electricity generating capacity

Water-treatment capacity

Drinking water, bottled or piped

Coastal access, harbours and ports

Palladium/platinum/diamonds

Real estate in long-standing, distinctive locations

Antiques, fine art, stamps and coins

Commodities without futures and options markets

Could these be the winning investments of the early years of the 21st century?"




good article.  the parts i liked:

The more obvious are the system's weaknesses, the greater is the fear of collapse and the larger the demand for liquidity within the financial markets. In these stressful episodes, it is the financial markets themselves that are the principal driving force behind the monetary expansion. Hence, there is relatively little monetary impact on the product and labour markets, that is, on prices and wages.  In this way, we can arrive at a crude understanding of the paradox of disconnection: how volatile and often rapid monetary growth rates can be consistent with seemingly low and stable inflation outcomes. In the US, the annual price deflator for GDP has been below 2.5% in every year since 1991. Consumer price inflation has been no higher than 3% in every year since 1991. In Canada, the record is slightly better; in the UK, slightly worse. To parody Paul Samuelson's quip about the productivity "miracle," credit excesses are visible everywhere except in the inflation figures. Time and time again, respected commentators and analysts have warned of the approaching inflationary backlash from the credit and monetary excesses, only to be humiliated and discredited by events. This is not because their instincts were at fault, but because they were looking in the wrong place.

i agree this is why citizens aren't seeing excess prices in most of their daily consumption items while certainly so in a minority of items.  most of the speculative debt is extended to the financial mkts and is reflected in stock and bond prices, derivatives, an other speculative assets.  this is why the financial sector at the peak in 2007 consisted of a large % of the S&P valuation at the time.

many bodies of short sellers have been carried off bond trading floors over the years.

However, since all debt is borrowed money, in order to write off a debt, it is necessary to destroy part of the money supply. It may be that the debt was structured as a bond issue rather than a bank loan; it doesn’t matter. The bondholders exchanged money balances for those bonds when they acquired them. If the bond is cancelled, this money is lost. Actual and impending losses give rise to a desire for additional liquidity in the financial system. Here, only money will do.

this destruction of the debt portion of the money supply is called deflation.  the resulting scramble for dollars to pay off that debt causes demand for dollars driving up its value paradoxically.  it's actually quite a clever system.  as i've said many times, it almost makes you want to be a Keynesian.
Pages: « 1 ... 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 [578] 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 ... 1560 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!