Bitcoin Forum
October 23, 2017, 07:15:03 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.0.1  [Torrent]. (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

Pages: « 1 ... 935 936 937 938 939 940 941 942 943 944 945 946 947 948 949 950 951 952 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 960 961 962 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 970 971 972 973 974 975 976 977 978 979 980 981 982 983 984 [985] 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 1000 1001 1002 1003 1004 1005 1006 1007 1008 1009 1010 1011 1012 1013 1014 1015 1016 1017 1018 1019 1020 1021 1022 1023 1024 1025 1026 1027 1028 1029 1030 1031 1032 1033 1034 1035 ... 1558 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1997246 times)
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 06:04:17 PM
 #19681


Doesn't matter if the transaction fees are high or low.  Doesn't matter if ....

To be honest, I have not previously considered the points you make above. I have always taken Satoshi's block rewards->fees evolution at face value, and am not convinced that the majority of miners will work for zero income. Obviously this does happen to some of them, occasionally.

I'm pleasantly surprised to see you say this.  Still, it's a hypothesis on my part, and the appropriate thing to do with a hypothesis is to file it away and match it against future observations.

Another somewhat weaker hypothesis is that some of the value streams that I alluded to are quite valuable indeed if enough data can be collected.  We could see mining completely subsidized in order to capture these value streams (and other's I've not thought of.)

With respect to the 'who spends what where' data, the 'who' part is still the most challenging.  Eventually Big Bro will probably solve that with a 'internet drivers license' type thing, but if/when that happens it's still not clear how available the data will be to private industry.  It will probably be a 'public/private partnership' arrangement with horse-trading that favors the big guys would be my guess.  In the here-and-now, when you see someone wanting you to use a particular authenticator, it's a pretty sure bet that that is what they are after.  Outfits with a large network footprint have other ways of course, but authentication optimizes things significantly.

A very common way to make money in tech is to achieve something that a big player will want then either sell it to them or sell the ability to obtain it (e.g., your company.)  One of my (very initial) hypothesis about OpenTransaction is that this might be their game because a successful transport layer would be a high-value item in a bunch of ways.

A real-world analogy must be the oil market. With the oil price down 45% a lot of producers are unprofitable, pumping for zero, and considering closing down. But there are profitable producers and the oil industry will continue, even if the price stays low and half of the producers go out of business.

The energy markets are probably about the worst example of a 'free market' that one could find.  For one, there are huge national security issues which touch almost every aspect of it.  For two, it's probably not a complete junk theory that our monetary system itself(!) is heavily tied in through what is monikered the 'petro-dollar' (and the 'world reserve currency' status of the USD.)  None-the-less, the old supply/demand laws are so powerful that they cannot be buried forever and they can be expected to rear their 'ugly heads' even in a heavily manipulated market like energy...with time...



actually, the hypothesis is a decent one (ouch, that's painful to say) and i have myself thought about this.  but i don't think it's a potential problem until 2140 when Bitcoin inflation goes to zero.  certainly, it could manifest itself earlier if the market perceives it as a bonafide problem and attempts to front run it.

however, i agree with solex that it can probably be better modelled by what we have in the energy mkts.  and oil companies don't seem to be having a problem; nor even smaller players who nip at their heels thru private oil wells or shale opportunities.

also, Adrian pointed out that your claim of "unlimited HW" is really Econ 101.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1508786103
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1508786103

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1508786103
Reply with quote  #2

1508786103
Report to moderator
1508786103
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1508786103

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1508786103
Reply with quote  #2

1508786103
Report to moderator
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 06:32:03 PM
 #19682

Bitstamp says.  meanwhile, in stockland.  $DJI -321:

cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 06:34:19 PM
 #19683

speaking of oil and natgas overlayed; who the hell needs either of those?:

cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 06:36:37 PM
 #19684

copper and FCX copper mining?  who the hell needs those too?:

cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 06:40:24 PM
 #19685

apparently all we need is moar black hole shit and the dollar.  somehow though, this one should work out differently than 2008:

Peter R
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 07:16:18 PM
 #19686

That if your home computer had to do 2.25TB/day down to be a full node you might not be able to do it, which is a centralising factor.

You're saying that retaining the possibility for home computers to be full nodes is both necessary and desirable.

I understand that many people have made this claim over the years, but I am not aware of any attempts to actually prove either of those.


He's saying that increasing the full-node bandwidth requirements is a centralizing factor.  It is.  If it requires more resources to run a full-node, less full-nodes will be run (all other variables held constant).  What is "necessary and desirable" is a different question: we want the Blockchain to scale but we require Bitcoin to remain decentralized.  Like you've pointed out several times, the proponents of keeping the blocksize limit small can't prove their claims; however, those who wish to increase or remove the cap can't prove their claims either.  

Bitcoin has value because it is decentralized.  It has value because the Blockchain is an unforgeable global ledger accessible to anyone according to the protocol rules, and secured by the largest single-purpose computing network ever constructed.  It has value because another individual, company or (possibly) government cannot prevent you from doing what you wish with your coins.  It has value because the majority cannot vote to redistribute your funds or attempt to paper-over economic problems by printing additional bitcoins.  In summary, it has value because it behaves less like a human invention/institution and more like a phenomenon of nature itself.  Just like there's nothing in the world we can do to stop gravity, we must also be unable to stop the ceaseless chaining of new blocks upon the Blockchain.  

Full-node count is currently estimated at 6495 nodes, and is steadily dwindling despite the fact that the blocksize-limit has remained static at 1 MB.  How would full-node count change if the average blocksize were 10x larger?  100x larger?  How many nodes do we even need?  I think these are difficult questions to answer.  

The current price reflects the belief that Bitcoin has the potential to one day become a significant world currency/SoV.  Like Smooth pointed out earlier, that pie-in-the-sky $10,000+ price multiplied by the market's estimate of its probability of success sets today's price.  If Bitcoin can't scale to the extent necessary to fulfil this potential, then the price of bitcoin today will become adjusted to this new reality (lower).  How much scaling is necessary?  I don't know, but I'm pretty sure the 1 MB limit put in place by Satoshi many years ago as a stop-gap measure is not it.
  

BTW, I don't think the "free-market-solves-all-problems-so-remove-the-cap-completely" approach can fly.  The Satoshi Social Contract requires that certain system-level constraints exist (for example, the inflation schedule….we can't have the free-market solve that problem).  Another requirement is that Bitcoin remain decentralized.  Without a constraint on blockchain growth, it seems less likely that this would always be the case.  

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
smooth
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1568



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 07:28:25 PM
 #19687

He's saying that increasing the full-node bandwidth requirements is a centralizing factor.  It is.  If it requires more resources to run a full-node, less full-nodes will be run (all other variables held constant).

Fewer nodes is not itself the entire problem, it is also where the nodes are. If most of the nodes end up at a few big VPS companies that is not a good outcome, even if the node count increases.

Peter R
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 07:29:44 PM
 #19688

He's saying that increasing the full-node bandwidth requirements is a centralizing factor.  It is.  If it requires more resources to run a full-node, less full-nodes will be run (all other variables held constant).

Fewer nodes is not itself the entire problem, it is also where the nodes are. If most of the nodes end up at a few big VPS companies that is not a good outcome, even if the node count increases.

Agreed.  Good point. 

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 07:44:40 PM
 #19689

Dow -331 345 and falling.
tvbcof
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2296


View Profile
January 05, 2015, 07:51:57 PM
 #19690

He's saying that increasing the full-node bandwidth requirements is a centralizing factor.  It is.  If it requires more resources to run a full-node, less full-nodes will be run (all other variables held constant).

Fewer nodes is not itself the entire problem, it is also where the nodes are. If most of the nodes end up at a few big VPS companies that is not a good outcome, even if the node count increases.

Agreed.  Good point. 

A new transport layer which slices, dices, etc, could mitigate certain of the concerns here.  Something like Oh, I dunno, 'SuperNET'?  I'll expect this to be one of the main sales pitches.


justusranvier
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1400



View Profile WWW
January 05, 2015, 07:54:47 PM
 #19691

If it requires more resources to run a full-node, less full-nodes will be run (all other variables held constant).
This is an effect of shitty network design.

Satoshi was right to realize that a currency should have a limited supply, but that doesn't mean he was right about (or even though about) the economic features of the rest of the software stack.

With a tiny handful of exceptions, all P2P networks are economically broken.

Consider a McDonalds restaurant. The more customers they need to serve, the more resources they require to do so.

Yet in spite of that fact, as the customer demand for McDonald's product increases, so does the number of stores!

Why is that the opposite of what happens with P2P networks? Because in the case of Big Macs, people pay for what they use. This customer action of paying for what they concume means that McDonalds doesn't really need to worry about how it will gather the resources it needs to scale.

The Satoshi Social Contract requires that certain system-level constraints exist (for example, the inflation schedule….we can't have the free-market solve that problem).
That's an objection only brought up by people who don't understand money.

The reason the inflation schedule shouldn't change is the same reason you shouldn't put an anchor on an airplane.

In a way, the free market *does* solve that question though - because people are free to choose whether or not they want to travel in a boat or in an airplane.

Another requirement is that Bitcoin remain decentralized.  Without a constraint on blockchain growth, it seems less likely that this would always be the case.
Let's talk more about this requirement after you produce a workable definition of what "decentralized" means, and the arguments you use to justify your conclusion about how different situations will affect it.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 07:55:28 PM
 #19692

we got a really nice Dow Theory non-confirmation going right now which should widen with time:

cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 08:24:52 PM
 #19693

oil @ 49.90.  the only thing sweet about sweet crude oil is the sweet smell of Deflation.
sidhujag
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1610


View Profile
January 05, 2015, 08:48:57 PM
 #19694

we got a really nice Dow Theory non-confirmation going right now which should widen with time:


nice buy

★☆★Syscoin - Decentralized Marketplace and Multisig Platform
Pay with Bitcoin, ZCash and many more
For more visit Syscoin.org  ★☆★
stereotype
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1554



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 09:00:32 PM
 #19695

oil @ 49.90
Just wow.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 09:16:08 PM
 #19696


This is war on Shale - mainly the US Shale and thus we could see US junk bonds implode.

Could this be the start of the big collapse everyone here is hoping for?

Given the unprecedented nature of that price divergence from its normal relationship with stocks one has to assume something big can happen. Certainly is also possible that tech has rebooted us to permanent nirvana but I tend to doubt it given that nothing got fixed after 2008 and all we did was double the national debt, quintupled the money supply, and let the criminals multiply like viruses.

And by my estimation, Bitcoin has the potential to end all this in a positive manner, so I'm loading up further every chance I get.
Odalv
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1232



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 09:17:41 PM
 #19697

oil @ 49.90.  the only thing sweet about sweet crude oil is the sweet smell of Deflation.

The more dollars are printed the more scarce they are :-) ... I don't get it.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 05, 2015, 09:27:02 PM
 #19698

oil @ 49.90.  the only thing sweet about sweet crude oil is the sweet smell of Deflation.

The more dollars are printed the more scarce they are :-) ... I don't get it.

Debt implosion> money printing
justusranvier
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1400



View Profile WWW
January 05, 2015, 09:30:10 PM
 #19699

The USD desperately wants to appreciate.

The reason the USD lost so much value over the last century was due, not to base money printing, but to credit expansion, a.k.a debt issuance.

Debt is temporary. It's either repaid, or else defaulted. Either way of resolving debt shrinks the money supply as much as the original issuance expanded it.

As long as the population was growing, and as long as the middle class had positive savings, it was possible to expand credit. Now both conditions are no longer true.

Since it's no longer possible to continue credit expansion, the only way to stop the deflation caused by debt repayment and defaults is to print more base money (QE).

When QE stops, the USD resumes its natural appreciation.
sidhujag
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1610


View Profile
January 05, 2015, 09:34:22 PM
 #19700

The USD desperately wants to appreciate.

The reason the USD lost so much value over the last century was due, not to base money printing, but to credit expansion, a.k.a debt issuance.

Debt is temporary. It's either repaid, or else defaulted. Either way of resolving debt shrinks the money supply as much as the original issuance expanded it.

As long as the population was growing, and as long as the middle class had positive savings, it was possible to expand credit. Now both conditions are no longer true.

Since it's no longer possible to continue credit expansion, the only way to stop the deflation caused by debt repayment and defaults is to print more base money (QE).

When QE stops, the USD resumes its natural appreciation.
Rates will have to rise and after a few raises we will finally see more qe and final collapse of trust

★☆★Syscoin - Decentralized Marketplace and Multisig Platform
Pay with Bitcoin, ZCash and many more
For more visit Syscoin.org  ★☆★
Pages: « 1 ... 935 936 937 938 939 940 941 942 943 944 945 946 947 948 949 950 951 952 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 960 961 962 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 970 971 972 973 974 975 976 977 978 979 980 981 982 983 984 [985] 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 1000 1001 1002 1003 1004 1005 1006 1007 1008 1009 1010 1011 1012 1013 1014 1015 1016 1017 1018 1019 1020 1021 1022 1023 1024 1025 1026 1027 1028 1029 1030 1031 1032 1033 1034 1035 ... 1558 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!