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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2022643 times)
cypherdoc
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January 05, 2015, 06:36:37 PM
 #19681

copper and FCX copper mining?  who the hell needs those too?:

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cypherdoc
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January 05, 2015, 06:40:24 PM
 #19682

apparently all we need is moar black hole shit and the dollar.  somehow though, this one should work out differently than 2008:

Peter R
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January 05, 2015, 07:16:18 PM
 #19683

That if your home computer had to do 2.25TB/day down to be a full node you might not be able to do it, which is a centralising factor.

You're saying that retaining the possibility for home computers to be full nodes is both necessary and desirable.

I understand that many people have made this claim over the years, but I am not aware of any attempts to actually prove either of those.


He's saying that increasing the full-node bandwidth requirements is a centralizing factor.  It is.  If it requires more resources to run a full-node, less full-nodes will be run (all other variables held constant).  What is "necessary and desirable" is a different question: we want the Blockchain to scale but we require Bitcoin to remain decentralized.  Like you've pointed out several times, the proponents of keeping the blocksize limit small can't prove their claims; however, those who wish to increase or remove the cap can't prove their claims either.  

Bitcoin has value because it is decentralized.  It has value because the Blockchain is an unforgeable global ledger accessible to anyone according to the protocol rules, and secured by the largest single-purpose computing network ever constructed.  It has value because another individual, company or (possibly) government cannot prevent you from doing what you wish with your coins.  It has value because the majority cannot vote to redistribute your funds or attempt to paper-over economic problems by printing additional bitcoins.  In summary, it has value because it behaves less like a human invention/institution and more like a phenomenon of nature itself.  Just like there's nothing in the world we can do to stop gravity, we must also be unable to stop the ceaseless chaining of new blocks upon the Blockchain.  

Full-node count is currently estimated at 6495 nodes, and is steadily dwindling despite the fact that the blocksize-limit has remained static at 1 MB.  How would full-node count change if the average blocksize were 10x larger?  100x larger?  How many nodes do we even need?  I think these are difficult questions to answer.  

The current price reflects the belief that Bitcoin has the potential to one day become a significant world currency/SoV.  Like Smooth pointed out earlier, that pie-in-the-sky $10,000+ price multiplied by the market's estimate of its probability of success sets today's price.  If Bitcoin can't scale to the extent necessary to fulfil this potential, then the price of bitcoin today will become adjusted to this new reality (lower).  How much scaling is necessary?  I don't know, but I'm pretty sure the 1 MB limit put in place by Satoshi many years ago as a stop-gap measure is not it.
  

BTW, I don't think the "free-market-solves-all-problems-so-remove-the-cap-completely" approach can fly.  The Satoshi Social Contract requires that certain system-level constraints exist (for example, the inflation schedule….we can't have the free-market solve that problem).  Another requirement is that Bitcoin remain decentralized.  Without a constraint on blockchain growth, it seems less likely that this would always be the case.  

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January 05, 2015, 07:28:25 PM
 #19684

He's saying that increasing the full-node bandwidth requirements is a centralizing factor.  It is.  If it requires more resources to run a full-node, less full-nodes will be run (all other variables held constant).

Fewer nodes is not itself the entire problem, it is also where the nodes are. If most of the nodes end up at a few big VPS companies that is not a good outcome, even if the node count increases.

Peter R
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January 05, 2015, 07:29:44 PM
 #19685

He's saying that increasing the full-node bandwidth requirements is a centralizing factor.  It is.  If it requires more resources to run a full-node, less full-nodes will be run (all other variables held constant).

Fewer nodes is not itself the entire problem, it is also where the nodes are. If most of the nodes end up at a few big VPS companies that is not a good outcome, even if the node count increases.

Agreed.  Good point. 

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cypherdoc
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January 05, 2015, 07:44:40 PM
 #19686

Dow -331 345 and falling.
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January 05, 2015, 07:51:57 PM
 #19687

He's saying that increasing the full-node bandwidth requirements is a centralizing factor.  It is.  If it requires more resources to run a full-node, less full-nodes will be run (all other variables held constant).

Fewer nodes is not itself the entire problem, it is also where the nodes are. If most of the nodes end up at a few big VPS companies that is not a good outcome, even if the node count increases.

Agreed.  Good point. 

A new transport layer which slices, dices, etc, could mitigate certain of the concerns here.  Something like Oh, I dunno, 'SuperNET'?  I'll expect this to be one of the main sales pitches.


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January 05, 2015, 07:54:47 PM
 #19688

If it requires more resources to run a full-node, less full-nodes will be run (all other variables held constant).
This is an effect of shitty network design.

Satoshi was right to realize that a currency should have a limited supply, but that doesn't mean he was right about (or even though about) the economic features of the rest of the software stack.

With a tiny handful of exceptions, all P2P networks are economically broken.

Consider a McDonalds restaurant. The more customers they need to serve, the more resources they require to do so.

Yet in spite of that fact, as the customer demand for McDonald's product increases, so does the number of stores!

Why is that the opposite of what happens with P2P networks? Because in the case of Big Macs, people pay for what they use. This customer action of paying for what they concume means that McDonalds doesn't really need to worry about how it will gather the resources it needs to scale.

The Satoshi Social Contract requires that certain system-level constraints exist (for example, the inflation schedule….we can't have the free-market solve that problem).
That's an objection only brought up by people who don't understand money.

The reason the inflation schedule shouldn't change is the same reason you shouldn't put an anchor on an airplane.

In a way, the free market *does* solve that question though - because people are free to choose whether or not they want to travel in a boat or in an airplane.

Another requirement is that Bitcoin remain decentralized.  Without a constraint on blockchain growth, it seems less likely that this would always be the case.
Let's talk more about this requirement after you produce a workable definition of what "decentralized" means, and the arguments you use to justify your conclusion about how different situations will affect it.
cypherdoc
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January 05, 2015, 07:55:28 PM
 #19689

we got a really nice Dow Theory non-confirmation going right now which should widen with time:

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January 05, 2015, 08:24:52 PM
 #19690

oil @ 49.90.  the only thing sweet about sweet crude oil is the sweet smell of Deflation.
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January 05, 2015, 08:48:57 PM
 #19691

we got a really nice Dow Theory non-confirmation going right now which should widen with time:


nice buy

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For more visit Syscoin.org  ★☆★
stereotype
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January 05, 2015, 09:00:32 PM
 #19692

oil @ 49.90
Just wow.
cypherdoc
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January 05, 2015, 09:16:08 PM
 #19693


This is war on Shale - mainly the US Shale and thus we could see US junk bonds implode.

Could this be the start of the big collapse everyone here is hoping for?

Given the unprecedented nature of that price divergence from its normal relationship with stocks one has to assume something big can happen. Certainly is also possible that tech has rebooted us to permanent nirvana but I tend to doubt it given that nothing got fixed after 2008 and all we did was double the national debt, quintupled the money supply, and let the criminals multiply like viruses.

And by my estimation, Bitcoin has the potential to end all this in a positive manner, so I'm loading up further every chance I get.
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January 05, 2015, 09:17:41 PM
 #19694

oil @ 49.90.  the only thing sweet about sweet crude oil is the sweet smell of Deflation.

The more dollars are printed the more scarce they are :-) ... I don't get it.
cypherdoc
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January 05, 2015, 09:27:02 PM
 #19695

oil @ 49.90.  the only thing sweet about sweet crude oil is the sweet smell of Deflation.

The more dollars are printed the more scarce they are :-) ... I don't get it.

Debt implosion> money printing
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January 05, 2015, 09:30:10 PM
 #19696

The USD desperately wants to appreciate.

The reason the USD lost so much value over the last century was due, not to base money printing, but to credit expansion, a.k.a debt issuance.

Debt is temporary. It's either repaid, or else defaulted. Either way of resolving debt shrinks the money supply as much as the original issuance expanded it.

As long as the population was growing, and as long as the middle class had positive savings, it was possible to expand credit. Now both conditions are no longer true.

Since it's no longer possible to continue credit expansion, the only way to stop the deflation caused by debt repayment and defaults is to print more base money (QE).

When QE stops, the USD resumes its natural appreciation.
sidhujag
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January 05, 2015, 09:34:22 PM
 #19697

The USD desperately wants to appreciate.

The reason the USD lost so much value over the last century was due, not to base money printing, but to credit expansion, a.k.a debt issuance.

Debt is temporary. It's either repaid, or else defaulted. Either way of resolving debt shrinks the money supply as much as the original issuance expanded it.

As long as the population was growing, and as long as the middle class had positive savings, it was possible to expand credit. Now both conditions are no longer true.

Since it's no longer possible to continue credit expansion, the only way to stop the deflation caused by debt repayment and defaults is to print more base money (QE).

When QE stops, the USD resumes its natural appreciation.
Rates will have to rise and after a few raises we will finally see more qe and final collapse of trust

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cypherdoc
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January 05, 2015, 09:41:13 PM
 #19698

The USD desperately wants to appreciate.

The reason the USD lost so much value over the last century was due, not to base money printing, but to credit expansion, a.k.a debt issuance.

Debt is temporary. It's either repaid, or else defaulted. Either way of resolving debt shrinks the money supply as much as the original issuance expanded it.

As long as the population was growing, and as long as the middle class had positive savings, it was possible to expand credit. Now both conditions are no longer true.

Since it's no longer possible to continue credit expansion, the only way to stop the deflation caused by debt repayment and defaults is to print more base money (QE).

When QE stops, the USD resumes its natural appreciation.

Exactly with an additional subtlety. Not only does the Fed have to print, they have to stimulate confidence because they can never print enough to fill the debt hole  and especially the derivatives mountain. If anything, the last 6 years has shown dubious levels of confidence, if any, along with demonstrably worse real wage growth. The Internet has spawned nearly instantaneous documentation of all the stealing going on.

The last few ramps this year have been nearly vertical short squeezes by the invisible hand which shows increasing desperation, imo. Now is the time to be cautious.  

sidhuajag, I really don't think you're gonna find your masses piling into a final blow off top.
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January 05, 2015, 09:42:05 PM
 #19699

Rates will have to rise and after a few raises we will finally see more qe and final collapse of trust
The consequences of resuming QE are unaccceptable.

So are the consequences of not resuming QE.

Must be fun to be in any kind of decision-making position at the Federal Reserve right now.
cypherdoc
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January 05, 2015, 09:45:47 PM
 #19700

Rates will have to rise and after a few raises we will finally see more qe and final collapse of trust
The consequences of resuming QE are unaccceptable.

So are the consequences of not resuming QE.

Must be fun to be in any kind of decision-making position at the Federal Reserve right now.

I heard an interesting theory on a podcast the other day which matched my observation. Every Fed head has their crisis with which they are forced to deal with and given that's a fact, they prefer to take it early on in their term so they can clean up before the next head comes in. Nows the time for Janet.
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