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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1980032 times)
cypherdoc
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January 07, 2015, 07:12:25 PM
 #19861

i've been meaning to put this chart up of the $DJI from the top in 10/07 to its bottom of 03/09.  of note is that this was a 1.5 yr decline which seemed interminable, which goes to show you just how long bear phases can run compared to what we've had in Bitcoin.  also, the oval highlights a 4 mo sideways consolidation btwn 12/08 and 03/09 during which everyone was convinced that the bear was over and that this represented the very best time to accumulate within a "bottoming" process.  but then look at the 3wk long "throwunder" as labelled in this chart.  THAT was in fact what killed loads of bulls in a final panic that threatened to destroy the traditional fiat system.  i remember vividly watching the minute by minute action during that period and it seemed surreal and somewhat artificially contrived to the downside as there was no real panic selling but a steady grind downwards to grind out the last vestiges of optimism.  it succeeded as at the bottom of 03/09, there were just 2% bulls remaining.  in retrospect though, that clearly  was the time to buy  when looking at where we are now:



here is Bitcoins analogy, imo:

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January 07, 2015, 07:39:47 PM
 #19862

in retrospect though, that clearly  was the time to buy [...] here is Bitcoins analogy ...
maybe yes, maybe no
maybe rain, maybe snow ...

not just BTC but all currencies have recently fallen vs. the USD. analogies only go so far.
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January 07, 2015, 08:08:37 PM
 #19863

this is a very useful article to help understand how and what OT is and will become.  i think they have great promise and preserves the inseparability of the BTC unit with its blockchain:

http://monetas.net/monetas-brings-colored-coins-to-btcd/

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.  I thought otherwise for some reason but I don't remember what it was.

this is a very nice picture to help understand how and what cypherdoc is and will become.  i think they have great promise to collect and demonstrate the separability of the BTC unit with it's one-time owner cypherdoc.




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January 07, 2015, 08:12:33 PM
 #19864

That sheep looks so violated.

this is a very useful article to help understand how and what OT is and will become.  i think they have great promise and preserves the inseparability of the BTC unit with its blockchain:

http://monetas.net/monetas-brings-colored-coins-to-btcd/

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.  I thought otherwise for some reason but I don't remember what it was.

this is a very nice picture to help understand how and what cypherdoc is and will become.  i think they have great promise to collect and demonstrate the separability of the BTC unit with it's one-time owner cypherdoc.





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January 07, 2015, 08:57:33 PM
 #19865

i'm a fan of long term charts.  this is the 20 yr weekly $DJI.  btwn Jan 2000 and Sept 2002, the rectangle, the Dow drops for 2.75 years straight.  long, drawn out drops don't bother me esp when the fundamentals are sound.  you can also see the even longer "throwunder" back to 2002:

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January 07, 2015, 09:08:18 PM
 #19866

I think a 'throw under' for Bitcoin at its current level would have to be at least in the low $200s

                                 
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January 07, 2015, 09:51:50 PM
 #19867

Robert Murphy:

http://understandingbitcoin.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12-Understanding-Bitcoin-v1.pdf
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January 07, 2015, 10:20:09 PM
 #19868

John Mauldin. Slowly but surely:   
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/lg/bitcoin






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January 07, 2015, 10:30:49 PM
 #19869

John Mauldin. Slowly but surely:   
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/lg/bitcoin

Great video.
Once Stamp is sorted out I can see a long-term general increase in bullish sentiment.

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January 07, 2015, 11:00:39 PM
 #19870

John Mauldin. Slowly but surely:   
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/lg/bitcoin

Great video.
Once Stamp is sorted out I can see a long-term general increase in bullish sentiment.

Great indeed. Except for that Alex Daley cat. He lacks some understanding.
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January 07, 2015, 11:01:25 PM
 #19871

At least one gvt gets it:

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/06/canadian-government-pledges-9m-in-efforts-to-circumvent-other-countries-internet-censorship
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January 08, 2015, 02:16:28 AM
 #19872

this is a very useful article to help understand how and what OT is and will become.  i think they have great promise and preserves the inseparability of the BTC unit with its blockchain:

http://monetas.net/monetas-brings-colored-coins-to-btcd/

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.  I thought otherwise for some reason but I don't remember what it was.

as i said, i have no affiliation with them or any other company.  if you'd been paying attention, what i like is that they are building on top of the Bitcoin blockchain and not trying to change the source code to facilitate their business model.  this keeps them honest and competitive.
Quote
this is a very nice picture to help understand how and what cypherdoc is and will become.  i think they have great promise to collect and demonstrate the separability of the BTC unit with it's one-time owner cypherdoc.





what's with you and animal porn?  instead of that little dog humping your leg i bet you hump the dog.
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January 08, 2015, 02:19:31 AM
 #19873

Please stop feeding the troll. All as in 100% of his arguments have been debunked or already have solutions planned. He is very good at using fallacious arguments. Don't play into them. They are easy to spot because they have few details. If you challenge them, he doesn't answer you directly, instead he plays another trick.

+1

Please note how he started to post on this thread a few days ago (asking questions about sidechains)
and then he slowly started to broaden the scope of his questions to bitcoin fundamentals and increase posts frequency.

Each of is post contains valid reasoning and seems legit, you have to take a step back to see what I think is his real agenda.

Looking at JorgeStolfi account activity by time I wonder even if it is used by more then one person:



Having said that I think the best course of action is leaving him (them?) alone, IMHO.  




yeah, it was quite noticeable to me as well, the rather abrupt change from asking SC questions to trolling about Bitcoin mining.
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January 08, 2015, 02:42:47 AM
 #19874

this is a very useful article to help understand how and what OT is and will become.  i think they have great promise and preserves the inseparability of the BTC unit with its blockchain:

http://monetas.net/monetas-brings-colored-coins-to-btcd/

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.  I thought otherwise for some reason but I don't remember what it was.

as i said, i have no affiliation with them or any other company.  if you'd been paying attention, what i like is that they are building on top of the Bitcoin blockchain and not trying to change the source code to facilitate their business model.  this keeps them honest and competitive.

oh, okay. [snicker]

Quote
this is a very nice picture to help understand how and what cypherdoc is and will become.  i think they have great promise to collect and demonstrate the separability of the BTC unit with it's one-time owner cypherdoc.

 - snip - jpg of sheared sheep -

what's with you and animal porn?

Huh?  It's just a picture of a sheep.  Where did you get porn out of that?  Actually, never mind...I don't really need to know.

instead of that little dog humping your leg i bet you hump the dog.

Golly gee...just try to do a friend a favor and look at what I get.  [sad face]


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January 08, 2015, 02:50:54 AM
 #19875

A gazillion hashes/second doesn't make the network secure and in fact the number of hashes is completely irrelevant. What matters for the most part is the amount of electricity used and secondarily the cost of the mining equipment. For example 100 watts buys you something on the order of 200 GH/sec of SHA256D. The same 100 watts would buy you perhaps 300 hashes/sec of (to pick one with which I happen to be familiar) CryptoNight. These are approximately equal in value for mining; 200 GH/sec of one algorithm is not 2/3 of a billion times "more secure" than 300 H/s of another. These units are incomparable.

The current bitcoin network is about 150 megawatts. That's something on the order of a 1-2 million PCs using a CPU algorithm. At least until specialized hardware and mining farms developed, a bitcoin forked to a CPU/GPU algorithm would look a lot like a million bitcoin users all mining on their computers. Sounds pretty darn secure to me.

(Is this your "technical objection"?)

You are assuming that 2 million bitcoin users would all rather upgrade to the "rebel" chain and start mining on their own CPUs rather than accept the cartel's proposed change to the protocol.  (Can you see the "belief about how the community would react" there?)  It is like saying that if the banks decided to raise their fees, all their clients would take their cash out and create a banking system of their own, out of their garages and kitchens.

But let's say that all users were to feel like that.  First, the number "2 million" depends on who you count as "bitcoin user". (I gather that the number of full nodes is less than 10 thousand, isn't that so?)

As of last september, there were only 650'000 bitcoin addresses in the blockchain with at least 0.1 BTC in them; and less than 160'000 with at least 1 BTC in them.  Addresses are not people, of course, and many people who own bitcoins keep them all in MtGOX Bitstamp Coinbase or some such place; but wouldn't you agree that someone who has more than a uh-tried-it-once interest in bitcoin should have at least one blockchain address of his own with at least 1 BTC in it?

So, if we take that criterion as a cutoff, we are talking about 200'000 real users at most.  Now, how many of them would have the knowledge, time, patience, and computing resources to downlad the "Red Button" mining code and start mining?  How many will put up with the extra load on their PCs and laptops to secure their 2.73 BTC?  10% maybe? ("belief about how the community would react" again…)

So, even if most of the users hate the cartel and choose to upgrade their wallet software to the Red Button protocol, there may be perhaps only 20'000 PCs and laptops mining the rebel chain.  At (guess) 300 W per machine devoted to mining, 24/7, that would be 6 MW securing the Red Code fork.  If the cartel wanted to jam it too, how much cloud computing power would it need to rent to match their Red Button hashing power, and how much would it cost?

But let's say that a substantial number of users do join the rebel ranks, and the cartel leaves the Red Code chain alone, or fails to jam it.  So then there would be two two competing and incompatible coins, SunniCoin and ShiaCoin, both claiming to be the real Bitcoin.

One coin uses practically the same protocol, with a small change to the halving schedule, and claims to have a large state-of-the-art mining network comprising all former bitcoin miners (mostly turned off at present, because of the lower coin value would probably negate the doubled reward).

The other runs a protocol that is mostly similar to Satoshi's, but is incompatible with all mining equipment, and has a much smaller network (whether measured in MW, or in CPU computing power).

Everyone who owned N bitcoins right before the split, whether he likes it or not, would own N SunniCoins and N ShiaCoins just after the split.  However, the two blockchains would inevitably diverge, therefore transactions in one cannot (and should not) be automatically mirrored in the other.  Indeed, those users who are not absolute purists will hoard, sell, or spend both coins independently, for whatever price each would fetch.  To do that, they would have to duplicate their bitcoin wallet at the time of the split, and install both versions of their wallet software.  Most users will probably do that eventually (the alternative is pure loss), unless one of the coins dies out first.

Note that both coins will start out with the same set of owners, so neither can boast of having most of the users.  A user who wants SunniCoin to die can only  refuse to be paid in SunniCoin, and spend, sell, or burn all his SunniCoins.  So, paradoxically, if most users want ShiaCoin to flourish, there will be a surge of traffic in the SunniCoin blockchain, and vice-versa.  

How would prospective crypto investor choose between the two?  If someone was looking for a venture to invest his retirement money, which would he choose: a restaurant in Donetsk, or an apparel store in Northern Iraq?
 
Obviously both coins will see their price collapse, and their combined marketcap will be much less than the bitcoin marketcap before the split.   It is as if bitcoiners woke up one day to find that each bitcoin they owned had been swapped for one Litecoin plus one Dogecoin.

So, the RedCoin solution would be a near suicide by the users, even if they had support for their coin in all payment processors and other services.  It would break the trust in both coins, not only among ideologues, but also among the majority of the "materialistic" users.  Large holders, fund investors, the service companies, and the VC investors who put their money into them would together lose a billion dollars or more.  Ditto for any other solution that splits the blockchain into two independent chains.

Now rewind the movie to before the split.  You own an exchange or a payment processor.  You must decide whether to come out in favor of the cartel, or of the announced rebellion, or just avoid taking sides.  In any case, you must handle the two future forks as two distinct coins.  If you do not want to take sides, you should provide support in your service for both coins, each with its own set of accounts (and its own ledger, order book, or whatever).  Note that each bitcoin that your clients had deposited will become one SunniCoin and one ShiaCoin, both under your control.

The alternative is to provide support for only one of the coins, in an attempt to push your clients towards it.  But if you provide support only for ShiaCoins, you must still let your clients withdraw their SunniCoins, otherwise you would be stealing them.

Now, if most of the bitcoin users submit to the cartel, your losses will be minimal, assuming that you provide support in your service for the cartel's coin.  In any other case, you will lose millions of dollars, even if you provide support for the rebel's coin.  What would you do?

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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January 08, 2015, 02:55:57 AM
 #19876

"Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP"?

"UP"?

LMAO.


More like gold downtrending, bitcoin crashing to the ground.

fools.






"But... but... but... bitcoin is still a gazillionX since it was created!"

Yeah, like when it will be at $10. Still 100X since mtgox early days. Enjoy it. Keep the permabullshit going.
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January 08, 2015, 03:18:11 AM
 #19877

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.

They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 08, 2015, 03:19:25 AM
 #19878

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/lg/bitcoin

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January 08, 2015, 03:34:52 AM
 #19879

A gazillion hashes/second doesn't make the network secure and in fact the number of hashes is completely irrelevant. What matters for the most part is the amount of electricity used and secondarily the cost of the mining equipment. For example 100 watts buys you something on the order of 200 GH/sec of SHA256D. The same 100 watts would buy you perhaps 300 hashes/sec of (to pick one with which I happen to be familiar) CryptoNight. These are approximately equal in value for mining; 200 GH/sec of one algorithm is not 2/3 of a billion times "more secure" than 300 H/s of another. These units are incomparable.

The current bitcoin network is about 150 megawatts. That's something on the order of a 1-2 million PCs using a CPU algorithm. At least until specialized hardware and mining farms developed, a bitcoin forked to a CPU/GPU algorithm would look a lot like a million bitcoin users all mining on their computers. Sounds pretty darn secure to me.

(Is this your "technical objection"?)

You are assuming that 2 million bitcoin users would all rather upgrade to the "rebel" chain and start mining on their own CPUs rather than accept the cartel's proposed change to the protocol.

No I'm assuming that given the choice between software upgrade A, from some foreign source, that modifies the protocol in favor of some other interest group, or software upgrade B, from the same place they got their software in the first place, that protects their own interests, they would choose B.

As for who would mine on their PC, that is simply incentive based. The same 25 BTC are being produced every 10 minutes. If running a little program on your PC allows you to "generate free money from the interwebs" then, sure, many people would do it. Not only many of the existing million or so BTC users but many other as well (historically BTC mining booms have attracted new users -- as expected via greed -- especially during the CPU and GPU eras).

Given 25 BTC being mined every 10 minutes, profit motive will attract people to mine on their computers, mine on the old computer in their attic, mine on their friends' computers, buy new computers, etc. until approximately the same 150 MW is mining as before. As for cloud mining, I suggest you do some industry research to find out how much cloud computing capacity is available and how much it costs. You will find that your assumptions about what is available to be grossly inaccurate, if you think cloud mining is a serious threat (in fact, it would initially be more of a source of honest profit-motivated mining, before becoming uncompetitive).

Please redo your calculation after recognizing that even if only 10% of users get involved, at all, with mining, many of those will get involved on a significantly larger scale. At the low end that means 2-10 computers, or building GPU rigs with a half dozen GPUs (each roughly equivalent to a desktop in capacity), etc. At the high end it means semi-pro to pro-farms with dozens of rigs, initially, even larger over time. Oh, and let's not forget botnets. They'd also join the party, bringing many more computers to grab their share of the "Free Internet Money!"

This is not theoretical; every aspect of what I wrote in the previous two paragraphs has happened during every BTC mining boom and every altcoin mining boom. Your claim that it wouldn't is backed by no historical or other evidence whatsoever.

Let me be clear about this -- I don't expect any of this to happen. I won't happen because everyone -- including the miners -- knows that it could and would happen if a mining cartel tried to exercise the power you claim they have (but actually don't) to fork the protocol in its favor. Therefore it won't happen.

If a mining cartel does indeed fork the protocol in its favor as your model predicts, then I will come back here and eat crow. If it doesn't happen (over some reasonable period of time -- say by the next block having or the one thereafter), will you do the same? As you know I would prefer a substantial bet, but you apparently are either not confident in or insincere about your statements or don't like the idea of receiving free money from a stranger on the internet.
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LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


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January 08, 2015, 03:39:07 AM
 #19880

page 1000!!!!! Grin

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LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
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