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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2022644 times)
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January 08, 2015, 04:20:28 AM
 #19881

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.

They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

To be clear "no public stock" doesn't mean no stock. VC pump-and-dump works pretty much the same way as coin pump-and-dump or even public stock pump-and-dump. Hype the company, sell equity at progressively higher valuations, and then arrange for an "exit."

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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January 08, 2015, 04:28:57 AM
 #19882

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.

They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

To be clear "no public stock" doesn't mean no stock. VC pump-and-dump works pretty much the same way as coin pump-and-dump or even public stock pump-and-dump. Hype the company, sell equity at progressively higher valuations, and then arrange for an "exit."


I don't qualify for that, so I'll just have to buy bitcoins instead.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 08, 2015, 05:07:46 AM
 #19883

...
Gaud, the last thing i want to do is create another massive thread like the "Gold-I smell a trap" one over in Economics that went on for 5 months.  it was just too much work.  most ppl here into gold/silver won't like what i have to say so don't bother reading further.
...


1000 pages later...

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Cryptoasset rankings and metrics for investors: http://onchainfx.com
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January 08, 2015, 05:24:36 AM
 #19884

1000 pages  Shocked

*golfclap*

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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January 08, 2015, 09:07:59 AM
 #19885

1000 pages  Shocked

*golfclap*

Bitcoin no longer UP, as it were.

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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January 08, 2015, 09:22:12 AM
 #19886



Congratulations to one of the best threads in BTCT history!


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
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January 08, 2015, 11:06:14 AM
 #19887

1000 pages .... Gold hasn't collapsed and Bitcoin is not UP  Tongue

see you at 2000  Undecided
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January 08, 2015, 11:21:38 AM
 #19888

1000 pages .... Gold hasn't collapsed and Bitcoin is not UP  Tongue

see you at 2000  Undecided

This thread started in March 2012, when gold was much higher and BTC was much lower.

Cypherdoc will never bring me into his 'barbarous relic' camp of Maximalists, but credit where due is appropriate.


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
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January 08, 2015, 11:36:26 AM
 #19889

not so long ago there was talk in this thread of gold being 1:1 with BTC, now its over 4:1BTC to gold





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January 08, 2015, 01:23:23 PM
 #19890

Last in at page 1000!

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 08, 2015, 01:52:41 PM
 #19891

keep it rolling guys.  Cool
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January 08, 2015, 02:41:23 PM
 #19892

A gazillion hashes/second doesn't make the network secure and in fact the number of hashes is completely irrelevant. What matters for the most part is the amount of electricity used and secondarily the cost of the mining equipment. For example 100 watts buys you something on the order of 200 GH/sec of SHA256D. The same 100 watts would buy you perhaps 300 hashes/sec of (to pick one with which I happen to be familiar) CryptoNight. These are approximately equal in value for mining; 200 GH/sec of one algorithm is not 2/3 of a billion times "more secure" than 300 H/s of another. These units are incomparable.

The current bitcoin network is about 150 megawatts. That's something on the order of a 1-2 million PCs using a CPU algorithm. At least until specialized hardware and mining farms developed, a bitcoin forked to a CPU/GPU algorithm would look a lot like a million bitcoin users all mining on their computers. Sounds pretty darn secure to me.

(Is this your "technical objection"?)

You are assuming that 2 million bitcoin users would all rather upgrade to the "rebel" chain and start mining on their own CPUs rather than accept the cartel's proposed change to the protocol.

No I'm assuming that given the choice between software upgrade A, from some foreign source, that modifies the protocol in favor of some other interest group, or software upgrade B, from the same place they got their software in the first place, that protects their own interests, they would choose B.

As for who would mine on their PC, that is simply incentive based. The same 25 BTC are being produced every 10 minutes. If running a little program on your PC allows you to "generate free money from the interwebs" then, sure, many people would do it. Not only many of the existing million or so BTC users but many other as well (historically BTC mining booms have attracted new users -- as expected via greed -- especially during the CPU and GPU eras).

Given 25 BTC being mined every 10 minutes, profit motive will attract people to mine on their computers, mine on the old computer in their attic, mine on their friends' computers, buy new computers, etc. until approximately the same 150 MW is mining as before. As for cloud mining, I suggest you do some industry research to find out how much cloud computing capacity is available and how much it costs. You will find that your assumptions about what is available to be grossly inaccurate, if you think cloud mining is a serious threat (in fact, it would initially be more of a source of honest profit-motivated mining, before becoming uncompetitive).

Please redo your calculation after recognizing that even if only 10% of users get involved, at all, with mining, many of those will get involved on a significantly larger scale. At the low end that means 2-10 computers, or building GPU rigs with a half dozen GPUs (each roughly equivalent to a desktop in capacity), etc. At the high end it means semi-pro to pro-farms with dozens of rigs, initially, even larger over time. Oh, and let's not forget botnets. They'd also join the party, bringing many more computers to grab their share of the "Free Internet Money!"

This is not theoretical; every aspect of what I wrote in the previous two paragraphs has happened during every BTC mining boom and every altcoin mining boom. Your claim that it wouldn't is backed by no historical or other evidence whatsoever.

Let me be clear about this -- I don't expect any of this to happen. I won't happen because everyone -- including the miners -- knows that it could and would happen if a mining cartel tried to exercise the power you claim they have (but actually don't) to fork the protocol in its favor. Therefore it won't happen.

If a mining cartel does indeed fork the protocol in its favor as your model predicts, then I will come back here and eat crow. If it doesn't happen (over some reasonable period of time -- say by the next block having or the one thereafter), will you do the same? As you know I would prefer a substantial bet, but you apparently are either not confident in or insincere about your statements or don't like the idea of receiving free money from a stranger on the internet.

Lets give him odds.  2 for 1.  I'll join in this bet, but lets make it more interesting...  Whichever fails first.  Brazil's Real, or Bitcoin.  First one to zero loses.

Jorge is living in fantasy land with his imagined world where people act against their own interests to support a cartel.
It is feasible to him, because he is doing it himself and has for his whole career as a state worker, believing that Brazil will remain solvent, or not caring that it won't and just enjoying that largess at the expense of those who can't.

Brazil "manages" their economy jerking it back and forth.  Then when it fails, workers will blame the company that leaves due to the state's mismanagement, rather than think about Alexandre Tombini's nonsense.  Sure, bring in Levy from the IMF for just a little more groupthink.

When they are done and have had their way with the poor people of Brazil, Bitcoin will remain here for them.  The Shame on Jorge for trying to convince them otherwise.

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January 08, 2015, 04:23:06 PM
 #19893

once again, i seriously doubt the $DJT will get back up over the top of its previous high before the $DJI fails its advance thus confirming the Dow Theory non-confirmation.  we'll see:

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January 08, 2015, 04:58:20 PM
 #19894

I'm assuming that given the choice between software upgrade A, from some foreign source, that modifies the protocol in favor of some other interest group, or software upgrade B, from the same place they got their software in the first place, that protects their own interests, they would choose B.

Wait, are you saying that there is an Authority that the bitcoiners must trust?  Wink

You must be referring to the The Shrem Karpelès & Friends Foundation, and/or Gavin Andersen who works for it, as the source of the Red Button upgrade B. But why do you presume that an entity that has Sergei "Ponzi King" Mavrodi and Brock "RealCoin" Pierce on board, as well as many of the big miners, would not side with the big miners' cartel?  How can you be sure that Gavin will not be employed by the cartel at the time?

The Red Button threat may serve to protect the user's interests against miner abuse, if it is credible.  However, actually carrying out that threat would be extremely damaging to the users, because it would inevitably split the coin and cause the total price to drop.  Whoever calls for rebellion and releases that code will not be "protecting the users interests", but telling them to sacrifice their money for the sake of the PoIotPUGTiiaGI (Principle of Inviolability of the Protocol Unless Gavin Thinks it is a Good Idea).

Perhaps the Red Button solution should be renamed "the Jim Jones solution"?

Quote
As for who would mine on their PC, that is simply incentive based. The same 25 BTC are being produced every 10 minutes.
You meant 12.5 rebelBTC per block.  (It is the ex-bitcoin miners who will earn 25 cartelBTC per block.)  But it doesn't matter.

Quote
Given 25 BTC being mined every 10 minutes, profit motive will attract people to mine on their computers, mine on the old computer in their attack, mine on their friends' computers, buy new computers, etc. until approximately the same 150 MW is mining as before.
Correction: until the electricity and equipment costs are Pr*1800 $/day, where Pr is the market value of the rebelBTC coin; that is, at most (Pr/Po)*75 MW, where Po is the BTC price before the cartel's announcement.  Even if the rebel's bitcoin were to retain the full value of the old bitcoin, that would be only 75 MW.  But it doesn't matter, either.

Quote
Please redo your calculation after recognizing that even if only 10% of users get involved, at all, with mining, many of those will get involved on a significantly larger scale. [ Many players will ] join the party, bringing many more computers to grab their share of the "Free Internet Money!"

Well, the cartel will want to be the first in that line.  As soon as John Connor releases the rebel mining code, the SkyNet cartel will download it and set some rented CPUs to the task of jamming the rebel blockchain (and warn users that it will be doing that).  The cartel will keep increasing their CPU power as needed, so as to retain a majority of hashpower in that chain too.  So, the users who upgrade their wallet software to the rebel protocol will not be able to use their coins; and any opportunistic miners who try mining the rebel chain will get nothing.  This attack may cost the cartel a lot of money, but the stake for them is half a million dollars a day for 2 years, so they will try all they can to preserve the value of their coin. How long will it be, before the rebel users and miners give up?

(By the way, I meant that the cartel can rent cloud computing, not cloud mining as it its usually understood.)

Note also that, since the goal of pressing the Red Button is to destroy the value of bitcoin, the cartel could also justify the jamming of the rebel chain as an action to save bitcoin by preventing the disastrous split; and call for all good bitcoiners to come to the help of their cause, by cooperating in the jamming.

But it doesn't matter either.

I hope you kept reading my post beyond the first half, specifically beyond this sentence: "But let's say that a substantial number of users do join the rebel ranks, and the cartel leaves the Red Button chain alone, or fails to jam it."

Note that the effect of the Red Button would be to create a new crypto, the rebelBTC, that is a cloned copy of the original Bitcoin (oldBTC), including its state.  Namely, every owner of N oldBTC receives a gift of N rebelBTC, sitting in the same address of the rebel blockchain, which is accessed with the same private key.  Meanwhile, the cartel will give N cartelBTC to the same user, in the cartel's blockchain, while blocking further use of the oldBTC.  From that point on, each copy of each original satoshi can be hoarded, sold, spent, or burned independently of the other copy.

(For example, the USMS will suddenly find themselves owning 94'000 rebelBTC and 94'000 cartelBTC, as well as 94'000 oldBTC that they cannot move because of the cartel's jamming.  They could auction each separately or (more likely) bundle them together in lots of (say) 2000 rebelBTC plus 2000 cartelBTC.  In this second case, they would need to duplicate each transaction request for both chains as they deliver the coins to the winning bidders.)

The point is that the Red Button does not "steal" the users from the cartel's chain.  It does not even give the unhappy users the option of taking their BTC out of the cartel chain and into the rebel chain.  All bitcoin users would become users of both coins.

So the cartel chain will continue to have all the bitcoin users, as well bitcoin's 500 PH/s network; whereas the rebel chain will have all the users but only a nascent CPU network.  

This would be a very interesting experiment.  Has this ever happened before -- somebody creating an altcoin that duplicates bitcoin's protocol and its state, namely a persistent fork of the bitcoin blockchain?

The first question is what will happen to the prices Pc and Pr of the two coins, cartelBTC and rebelBTC, and how would they compare to the price Po of bitcoin before the split.  It seems unlikely that Pc + Pr will be more than Po. (If that were the case, people would rush to press the Red Button now, without waiting for any attack!)  Most likely, some of the old value would be lost, and the rest would be split between the two chains; so that Pr + Pc << Po.  

The next question is how the remaining value will be split between the two chains.  That depends on the credibility of the two coins in the eyes of prospective buyers (bitcoiners and non-bitcoiners).  If the cartel sets out to jam the rebel chain, and manages to keep it jammed for sufficiently long time, then Pr will soon be zero.  Since normal users will see no diffrence between oldBTC and cartelBTC, Pc will probably retain a significant fraction of Po. (I would guess Pc will be almost equal to Po, actually; but I know that I live in a fantasy world where bitcoiners care more about their money than about the ancap ideals.).

Quote
If a mining cartel does indeed fork the protocol in its favor as your model predicts, then I will come back here and eat crow. If it doesn't happen (over some reasonable period of time -- say by the next block having or the one thereafter), will you do the same? As you know I would prefer a substantial bet, but you apparently are either not confident in or insincere about your statements or don't like the idea of receiving free money from a stranger on the internet.

As I said before, I am not predicting anything.  You and other people claimed that a miner cartel cannot force a change in the protocol.  I tried to show that it can, by providing a step-by-step plan that they could follow.  That plan would obviously work, just as it always works for any cartel that can deny an essential service to its customers.  But that would be an unpleasant fact, so you prefer to believe the fantasy that the 300 Spartan bitcoiners would rally at Gavin's call in a suicidal stand against the army of Persian money-chasers…

If Gavin could really do that, then who would put money into bitcoin?

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
msin
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January 08, 2015, 05:09:57 PM
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Are you on Holiday break right now, you seem to have endless amounts of time to write here.  Not trying to discredit you, just jealous of your free time Smiley
JorgeStolfi
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January 08, 2015, 05:12:19 PM
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Are you on Holiday break right now, you seem to have endless amounts of time to write here.  Not trying to discredit you, just jealous of your free time Smiley

Yes, it is school vacations here.

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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January 08, 2015, 05:30:04 PM
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Are you on Holiday break right now, you seem to have endless amounts of time to write here.  Not trying to discredit you, just jealous of your free time Smiley

Yes, it is school vacations here.

Well, nice to be on the school schedule.  Just curious if you've checked out other protocols, POS, POI, Ripple?  Thoughts?
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January 08, 2015, 05:47:13 PM
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... {recently done work on nuclear option}


One of the reasons I'm adamant about native Bitcoin being used and seen as a 'reserve currency' rather than and 'exchange currency' is that it would not as terminal event for the system to go through a longish period of turmoil.

If sidechains were in the picture it would complicate things hugely for 'the cartel' for a bunch of reasons.  Chief among them:

 - Sidechains would have a variety of methods of functioning making it a real challenge for a 'cartel' to target the soft-points of each one.

 - Many of the sidechain implementations probably would have gone back toward an architecture which values and derives support from individual users.  Native Bitcoin has gone a long way in the opposite direction in my observations over the last 4 years.  Anyway, this individual contribution factor of sidechains could provide some support to the native Bitcoin backing and give the userbase (your 'rebels') at least a little bit of firepower against 'the cartel.'

 - Sidechains would be operated and valuable as independent solutions to individual coalitions.  The main interest in native Bitcoin to each of these would be that it remains universally credible in order to provide the backing they need.  This would probably translate to native Bitcoin ending up in a form which does not align with the end-goals of 'the cartel'.

 - Sidechains would have individual participants and operators who were highly technically competent and motivated.  These people would naturally be operating at the 'nexus point' between the sidechain and the native Bitcoin backing store.  What this means is that correct technical decisions would be made quickly, and interference at the 'nexus' level would be countered by people who know what they are doing.  Also, of course, a population's worth of transactions from a sidechain would be aggregated into a handful on the native Blockchain level transactions.  This would offer both the efficiency which might be needed under some attacks, and also a 'big stick' which has use politically.

Lamentably, I have to agree with Jorge that on the current trajectory with a zillion tiny and dis-interested users following whatever their Multibit UI is showing them, there is a strong possibility for a successful subversion by a 'cartel'.  Or not even that so much as simply a natural progression to a solution which doesn't have much good to offer.  It's why I'm so negative about Bitcoin being cast as a stand-alone exchange currency.


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January 08, 2015, 07:02:40 PM
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oil?  who the hell needs oil, let alone natgas?:

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January 08, 2015, 07:09:42 PM
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oil?  who the hell needs oil, ...

I do.  I bought another couple hundred gallons yesterday.  That should last me a year or two depending on how much I use my excavator (the one that Bitcoin bought Smiley )


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