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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1922853 times)
cypherdoc
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January 07, 2015, 06:34:11 PM
 #19881

this is a very useful article to help understand how and what OT is and will become.  i think they have great promise and preserves the inseparability of the BTC unit with its blockchain:

http://monetas.net/monetas-brings-colored-coins-to-btcd/
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January 07, 2015, 06:36:35 PM
 #19882

Provided SideChain are not introduced the cost to mine empty blocks becomes prohibitive, and can approach infinity, the incentive system as is rewards corporation.

I think this recent engagement with Jorge provides a window into just how hard the next stage of bitcoin adoption will be.

Many of us leap into Bitcoin once we understood it, because we were already politically aligned to it's ideology and saw a chance for Bitcoin to realize what we had already been looking for.

However this is a very small pool of people compared to the population at large. The next pools of people are those who are indifferent and those who are outright hostile/opposed to what Bitcoin represents, with the majority most likely being hostile.

Jorge is good example, he is a CS professor being paid by the state to spread misinformation. If you were already politically aligned to believe in government control of money (so they can "adjust" the supply "grow with the economy"), you are already motivated to be against Bitcoin and would accept Jorge's line of reasoning without question because it agrees with your world view. Expect more and more of his type of "analysis" to appear in credible sources.

To overcome this very real adoption hurdle I think Bitcoin can only win by becoming more and more functional and needs the ability for market participants to create and explore new functionality.

This is why I believe the sidechains are interesting and should be pursued (the concept not necessarily the current implementation).

I went quiet during the last round of sidechain discussions since it's hard to properly discuss it in thread format, but I've come to believe that economic interests by participants is what will enforce proper behavior and make the concept work. A lot of the concern seems to be poking holes in what is possible technically with sidechains, but I think economic interests would win. BTW, I believe the same is true for Bitcoin, it is economic interests that make Bitcoin work, not technical. I'll try to expand on that later.

That said I've come to completely agree with Adrian and cypherdoc that sidechains will ruin the incentivization system of Bitcoin, which is mandatory for it to function as an independent and decentralized system. If sidechains are implemented as is, I would seriously question the viability of Bitcoin to survive after block rewards become dependent on fees.

However I think there are straightforward solutions to this, largely by structuring them as childchains and not sidechains. Children chains should be forced to merge mine with their parent chain, in effect contributing all of their hash power to the parent and making the parent have the sum hash power of all children, whereas the a parent chain can mine on it's own and does not have to merge mine with anyone else. I'll try to describe this in more detail later when I have time, and then you guys can tell me where it's all wrong Wink

TL;DR I think the concept of sidechains is needed for the next stages of adoption, but is unworkable in it's current form. So we need to find and propose the right form of a sidechain concept.
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January 07, 2015, 06:58:13 PM
 #19883

I did not see any technical objections to what I wrote, only different beliefs about how the community would react.  Well, each one is entitled to their opinion on that.

Those are technical objections to what you wrote because what you wrote and the conclusion you reach depend entirely on statements about how the community would react. Do I need to quote them for you? If I'm not mistaken NewLiberty already did so.
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January 07, 2015, 07:12:25 PM
 #19884

i've been meaning to put this chart up of the $DJI from the top in 10/07 to its bottom of 03/09.  of note is that this was a 1.5 yr decline which seemed interminable, which goes to show you just how long bear phases can run compared to what we've had in Bitcoin.  also, the oval highlights a 4 mo sideways consolidation btwn 12/08 and 03/09 during which everyone was convinced that the bear was over and that this represented the very best time to accumulate within a "bottoming" process.  but then look at the 3wk long "throwunder" as labelled in this chart.  THAT was in fact what killed loads of bulls in a final panic that threatened to destroy the traditional fiat system.  i remember vividly watching the minute by minute action during that period and it seemed surreal and somewhat artificially contrived to the downside as there was no real panic selling but a steady grind downwards to grind out the last vestiges of optimism.  it succeeded as at the bottom of 03/09, there were just 2% bulls remaining.  in retrospect though, that clearly  was the time to buy  when looking at where we are now:



here is Bitcoins analogy, imo:

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January 07, 2015, 07:39:47 PM
 #19885

in retrospect though, that clearly  was the time to buy [...] here is Bitcoins analogy ...
maybe yes, maybe no
maybe rain, maybe snow ...

not just BTC but all currencies have recently fallen vs. the USD. analogies only go so far.
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January 07, 2015, 08:08:37 PM
 #19886

this is a very useful article to help understand how and what OT is and will become.  i think they have great promise and preserves the inseparability of the BTC unit with its blockchain:

http://monetas.net/monetas-brings-colored-coins-to-btcd/

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.  I thought otherwise for some reason but I don't remember what it was.

this is a very nice picture to help understand how and what cypherdoc is and will become.  i think they have great promise to collect and demonstrate the separability of the BTC unit with it's one-time owner cypherdoc.




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January 07, 2015, 08:12:33 PM
 #19887

That sheep looks so violated.

this is a very useful article to help understand how and what OT is and will become.  i think they have great promise and preserves the inseparability of the BTC unit with its blockchain:

http://monetas.net/monetas-brings-colored-coins-to-btcd/

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.  I thought otherwise for some reason but I don't remember what it was.

this is a very nice picture to help understand how and what cypherdoc is and will become.  i think they have great promise to collect and demonstrate the separability of the BTC unit with it's one-time owner cypherdoc.





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cypherdoc
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January 07, 2015, 08:57:33 PM
 #19888

i'm a fan of long term charts.  this is the 20 yr weekly $DJI.  btwn Jan 2000 and Sept 2002, the rectangle, the Dow drops for 2.75 years straight.  long, drawn out drops don't bother me esp when the fundamentals are sound.  you can also see the even longer "throwunder" back to 2002:

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January 07, 2015, 09:08:18 PM
 #19889

I think a 'throw under' for Bitcoin at its current level would have to be at least in the low $200s

Like this post? you can tip me (BTC) 18j7UBNfhWWfvwGwrtzWfUrp1v6RDerFkY or (XEM) NBXGH5-MXQPNL-T5TA3R-QCQYUX-3FIEXC-LGIKGT-H7XJ
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January 07, 2015, 09:51:50 PM
 #19890

Robert Murphy:

http://understandingbitcoin.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12-Understanding-Bitcoin-v1.pdf
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January 07, 2015, 10:20:09 PM
 #19891

John Mauldin. Slowly but surely:   
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/lg/bitcoin






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January 07, 2015, 10:30:49 PM
 #19892

John Mauldin. Slowly but surely:   
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/lg/bitcoin

Great video.
Once Stamp is sorted out I can see a long-term general increase in bullish sentiment.

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January 07, 2015, 11:00:39 PM
 #19893

John Mauldin. Slowly but surely:   
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/lg/bitcoin

Great video.
Once Stamp is sorted out I can see a long-term general increase in bullish sentiment.

Great indeed. Except for that Alex Daley cat. He lacks some understanding.
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January 07, 2015, 11:01:25 PM
 #19894

At least one gvt gets it:

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/06/canadian-government-pledges-9m-in-efforts-to-circumvent-other-countries-internet-censorship
cypherdoc
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January 08, 2015, 02:16:28 AM
 #19895

this is a very useful article to help understand how and what OT is and will become.  i think they have great promise and preserves the inseparability of the BTC unit with its blockchain:

http://monetas.net/monetas-brings-colored-coins-to-btcd/

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.  I thought otherwise for some reason but I don't remember what it was.

as i said, i have no affiliation with them or any other company.  if you'd been paying attention, what i like is that they are building on top of the Bitcoin blockchain and not trying to change the source code to facilitate their business model.  this keeps them honest and competitive.
Quote
this is a very nice picture to help understand how and what cypherdoc is and will become.  i think they have great promise to collect and demonstrate the separability of the BTC unit with it's one-time owner cypherdoc.





what's with you and animal porn?  instead of that little dog humping your leg i bet you hump the dog.
cypherdoc
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January 08, 2015, 02:19:31 AM
 #19896

Please stop feeding the troll. All as in 100% of his arguments have been debunked or already have solutions planned. He is very good at using fallacious arguments. Don't play into them. They are easy to spot because they have few details. If you challenge them, he doesn't answer you directly, instead he plays another trick.

+1

Please note how he started to post on this thread a few days ago (asking questions about sidechains)
and then he slowly started to broaden the scope of his questions to bitcoin fundamentals and increase posts frequency.

Each of is post contains valid reasoning and seems legit, you have to take a step back to see what I think is his real agenda.

Looking at JorgeStolfi account activity by time I wonder even if it is used by more then one person:



Having said that I think the best course of action is leaving him (them?) alone, IMHO.  




yeah, it was quite noticeable to me as well, the rather abrupt change from asking SC questions to trolling about Bitcoin mining.
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January 08, 2015, 02:42:47 AM
 #19897

this is a very useful article to help understand how and what OT is and will become.  i think they have great promise and preserves the inseparability of the BTC unit with its blockchain:

http://monetas.net/monetas-brings-colored-coins-to-btcd/

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.  I thought otherwise for some reason but I don't remember what it was.

as i said, i have no affiliation with them or any other company.  if you'd been paying attention, what i like is that they are building on top of the Bitcoin blockchain and not trying to change the source code to facilitate their business model.  this keeps them honest and competitive.

oh, okay. [snicker]

Quote
this is a very nice picture to help understand how and what cypherdoc is and will become.  i think they have great promise to collect and demonstrate the separability of the BTC unit with it's one-time owner cypherdoc.

 - snip - jpg of sheared sheep -

what's with you and animal porn?

Huh?  It's just a picture of a sheep.  Where did you get porn out of that?  Actually, never mind...I don't really need to know.

instead of that little dog humping your leg i bet you hump the dog.

Golly gee...just try to do a friend a favor and look at what I get.  [sad face]


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January 08, 2015, 02:50:54 AM
 #19898

A gazillion hashes/second doesn't make the network secure and in fact the number of hashes is completely irrelevant. What matters for the most part is the amount of electricity used and secondarily the cost of the mining equipment. For example 100 watts buys you something on the order of 200 GH/sec of SHA256D. The same 100 watts would buy you perhaps 300 hashes/sec of (to pick one with which I happen to be familiar) CryptoNight. These are approximately equal in value for mining; 200 GH/sec of one algorithm is not 2/3 of a billion times "more secure" than 300 H/s of another. These units are incomparable.

The current bitcoin network is about 150 megawatts. That's something on the order of a 1-2 million PCs using a CPU algorithm. At least until specialized hardware and mining farms developed, a bitcoin forked to a CPU/GPU algorithm would look a lot like a million bitcoin users all mining on their computers. Sounds pretty darn secure to me.

(Is this your "technical objection"?)

You are assuming that 2 million bitcoin users would all rather upgrade to the "rebel" chain and start mining on their own CPUs rather than accept the cartel's proposed change to the protocol.  (Can you see the "belief about how the community would react" there?)  It is like saying that if the banks decided to raise their fees, all their clients would take their cash out and create a banking system of their own, out of their garages and kitchens.

But let's say that all users were to feel like that.  First, the number "2 million" depends on who you count as "bitcoin user". (I gather that the number of full nodes is less than 10 thousand, isn't that so?)

As of last september, there were only 650'000 bitcoin addresses in the blockchain with at least 0.1 BTC in them; and less than 160'000 with at least 1 BTC in them.  Addresses are not people, of course, and many people who own bitcoins keep them all in MtGOX Bitstamp Coinbase or some such place; but wouldn't you agree that someone who has more than a uh-tried-it-once interest in bitcoin should have at least one blockchain address of his own with at least 1 BTC in it?

So, if we take that criterion as a cutoff, we are talking about 200'000 real users at most.  Now, how many of them would have the knowledge, time, patience, and computing resources to downlad the "Red Button" mining code and start mining?  How many will put up with the extra load on their PCs and laptops to secure their 2.73 BTC?  10% maybe? ("belief about how the community would react" again…)

So, even if most of the users hate the cartel and choose to upgrade their wallet software to the Red Button protocol, there may be perhaps only 20'000 PCs and laptops mining the rebel chain.  At (guess) 300 W per machine devoted to mining, 24/7, that would be 6 MW securing the Red Code fork.  If the cartel wanted to jam it too, how much cloud computing power would it need to rent to match their Red Button hashing power, and how much would it cost?

But let's say that a substantial number of users do join the rebel ranks, and the cartel leaves the Red Code chain alone, or fails to jam it.  So then there would be two two competing and incompatible coins, SunniCoin and ShiaCoin, both claiming to be the real Bitcoin.

One coin uses practically the same protocol, with a small change to the halving schedule, and claims to have a large state-of-the-art mining network comprising all former bitcoin miners (mostly turned off at present, because of the lower coin value would probably negate the doubled reward).

The other runs a protocol that is mostly similar to Satoshi's, but is incompatible with all mining equipment, and has a much smaller network (whether measured in MW, or in CPU computing power).

Everyone who owned N bitcoins right before the split, whether he likes it or not, would own N SunniCoins and N ShiaCoins just after the split.  However, the two blockchains would inevitably diverge, therefore transactions in one cannot (and should not) be automatically mirrored in the other.  Indeed, those users who are not absolute purists will hoard, sell, or spend both coins independently, for whatever price each would fetch.  To do that, they would have to duplicate their bitcoin wallet at the time of the split, and install both versions of their wallet software.  Most users will probably do that eventually (the alternative is pure loss), unless one of the coins dies out first.

Note that both coins will start out with the same set of owners, so neither can boast of having most of the users.  A user who wants SunniCoin to die can only  refuse to be paid in SunniCoin, and spend, sell, or burn all his SunniCoins.  So, paradoxically, if most users want ShiaCoin to flourish, there will be a surge of traffic in the SunniCoin blockchain, and vice-versa.  

How would prospective crypto investor choose between the two?  If someone was looking for a venture to invest his retirement money, which would he choose: a restaurant in Donetsk, or an apparel store in Northern Iraq?
 
Obviously both coins will see their price collapse, and their combined marketcap will be much less than the bitcoin marketcap before the split.   It is as if bitcoiners woke up one day to find that each bitcoin they owned had been swapped for one Litecoin plus one Dogecoin.

So, the RedCoin solution would be a near suicide by the users, even if they had support for their coin in all payment processors and other services.  It would break the trust in both coins, not only among ideologues, but also among the majority of the "materialistic" users.  Large holders, fund investors, the service companies, and the VC investors who put their money into them would together lose a billion dollars or more.  Ditto for any other solution that splits the blockchain into two independent chains.

Now rewind the movie to before the split.  You own an exchange or a payment processor.  You must decide whether to come out in favor of the cartel, or of the announced rebellion, or just avoid taking sides.  In any case, you must handle the two future forks as two distinct coins.  If you do not want to take sides, you should provide support in your service for both coins, each with its own set of accounts (and its own ledger, order book, or whatever).  Note that each bitcoin that your clients had deposited will become one SunniCoin and one ShiaCoin, both under your control.

The alternative is to provide support for only one of the coins, in an attempt to push your clients towards it.  But if you provide support only for ShiaCoins, you must still let your clients withdraw their SunniCoins, otherwise you would be stealing them.

Now, if most of the bitcoin users submit to the cartel, your losses will be minimal, assuming that you provide support in your service for the cartel's coin.  In any other case, you will lose millions of dollars, even if you provide support for the rebel's coin.  What would you do?

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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January 08, 2015, 02:55:57 AM
 #19899

"Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP"?

"UP"?

LMAO.


More like gold downtrending, bitcoin crashing to the ground.

fools.






"But... but... but... bitcoin is still a gazillionX since it was created!"

Yeah, like when it will be at $10. Still 100X since mtgox early days. Enjoy it. Keep the permabullshit going.
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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January 08, 2015, 03:18:11 AM
 #19900

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.

They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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