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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1902949 times)
marcus_of_augustus
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January 08, 2015, 03:19:25 AM
 #19901

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/lg/bitcoin

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January 08, 2015, 03:34:52 AM
 #19902

A gazillion hashes/second doesn't make the network secure and in fact the number of hashes is completely irrelevant. What matters for the most part is the amount of electricity used and secondarily the cost of the mining equipment. For example 100 watts buys you something on the order of 200 GH/sec of SHA256D. The same 100 watts would buy you perhaps 300 hashes/sec of (to pick one with which I happen to be familiar) CryptoNight. These are approximately equal in value for mining; 200 GH/sec of one algorithm is not 2/3 of a billion times "more secure" than 300 H/s of another. These units are incomparable.

The current bitcoin network is about 150 megawatts. That's something on the order of a 1-2 million PCs using a CPU algorithm. At least until specialized hardware and mining farms developed, a bitcoin forked to a CPU/GPU algorithm would look a lot like a million bitcoin users all mining on their computers. Sounds pretty darn secure to me.

(Is this your "technical objection"?)

You are assuming that 2 million bitcoin users would all rather upgrade to the "rebel" chain and start mining on their own CPUs rather than accept the cartel's proposed change to the protocol.

No I'm assuming that given the choice between software upgrade A, from some foreign source, that modifies the protocol in favor of some other interest group, or software upgrade B, from the same place they got their software in the first place, that protects their own interests, they would choose B.

As for who would mine on their PC, that is simply incentive based. The same 25 BTC are being produced every 10 minutes. If running a little program on your PC allows you to "generate free money from the interwebs" then, sure, many people would do it. Not only many of the existing million or so BTC users but many other as well (historically BTC mining booms have attracted new users -- as expected via greed -- especially during the CPU and GPU eras).

Given 25 BTC being mined every 10 minutes, profit motive will attract people to mine on their computers, mine on the old computer in their attic, mine on their friends' computers, buy new computers, etc. until approximately the same 150 MW is mining as before. As for cloud mining, I suggest you do some industry research to find out how much cloud computing capacity is available and how much it costs. You will find that your assumptions about what is available to be grossly inaccurate, if you think cloud mining is a serious threat (in fact, it would initially be more of a source of honest profit-motivated mining, before becoming uncompetitive).

Please redo your calculation after recognizing that even if only 10% of users get involved, at all, with mining, many of those will get involved on a significantly larger scale. At the low end that means 2-10 computers, or building GPU rigs with a half dozen GPUs (each roughly equivalent to a desktop in capacity), etc. At the high end it means semi-pro to pro-farms with dozens of rigs, initially, even larger over time. Oh, and let's not forget botnets. They'd also join the party, bringing many more computers to grab their share of the "Free Internet Money!"

This is not theoretical; every aspect of what I wrote in the previous two paragraphs has happened during every BTC mining boom and every altcoin mining boom. Your claim that it wouldn't is backed by no historical or other evidence whatsoever.

Let me be clear about this -- I don't expect any of this to happen. I won't happen because everyone -- including the miners -- knows that it could and would happen if a mining cartel tried to exercise the power you claim they have (but actually don't) to fork the protocol in its favor. Therefore it won't happen.

If a mining cartel does indeed fork the protocol in its favor as your model predicts, then I will come back here and eat crow. If it doesn't happen (over some reasonable period of time -- say by the next block having or the one thereafter), will you do the same? As you know I would prefer a substantial bet, but you apparently are either not confident in or insincere about your statements or don't like the idea of receiving free money from a stranger on the internet.
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January 08, 2015, 03:39:07 AM
 #19903

page 1000!!!!! Grin

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Peter R
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January 08, 2015, 03:41:46 AM
 #19904

page 1000!!!!! Grin

Haha, we've sunken to the level of the Wall Observer thread.

Page 1000!! Cheesy

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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January 08, 2015, 03:48:03 AM
 #19905

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.


They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

I've been trying to play catch-up a bit having not paid close attention to the crypto-currency world for a while and figure out the whole monetas, conformal, nxt, btcd, ot, supernet, jl777, bluemeanie, etc, etc, thing.  From what I read, one formulation of scammery is to issue 'a chunk' of the action of some project or another (or NXT or whatever) but it turns out to be a much smaller chunk than advertised or valueless or something.  At this point in my looking around it strikes me as one of those scam nests run by old timers who've been at it for decades.  Sort of like the BFL dudes.  I could be wrong-ish, but I probably won't bother to research the stuff much more.  There is no way I would touch it one way or another.  At this point just watching who comes along trying to pump it up will be interesting to observe.  It doesn't mean that they are bad people per se, but they probably are at least classic marks.

It is not hard to see how sidechains threatens a lot of these efforts no matter what the underlying driver or drivers behind them happen to be.  It's very possible that sidechains will work fairly well and mitigate some of the looming problems with the Bitcoin network in a way which will be more difficult to capitalize on or exploit.


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January 08, 2015, 03:53:09 AM
 #19906

high octane anti-trollery
http://btctheory.com/2015/01/08/bitcoins-people-problem/
Quote
Stupidity is a poor excuse for failing to understand how technology and money works, but alas, we are in a world ran by a union of morons, commanded by sociopathic capitalists and politicians. Those who believe in bitcoin’s demise are the same sniveling cowards who cannot see past their own avarice and callowness to ever accomplish something great–they simply want to punch the clown each day, satisfied at the safety of being commanded by another. They are cowards happy to obey governments and laws that can only be defined as illegal and tyrannical.

These are the fools who would plead that the bitcoin’s cause can never succeed; not understanding the purpose is the struggle against the system as it is. The fools bitch of being ripped off by banks, and then offer hollow stares when told of what bitcoin can do. They demand to be told how bitcoin works, without a damn clue how fiat works. The only problem that bitcoin has is that stupid people do not want to be free and independent–they demand to be ruled and governed, and to have you dragged down with their sad little boat of life.

These clowns tell me of how pleasurable life is on their knees, and how they are allowed so many of the scraps from the table of Empire! That a life of looking towards the ground is not only a great pleasure, but one of deep honor. These people love their duty to their God of the state. They will offer any excuse to justify the needs of their master, any reason to qualify the barbarism they execute daily. There is nothing that the state can do that the slaves cannot create a justification for. If these are the very idiots that we must rely upon to help us create our change, I must animate the seriousness of the dilemma in which we have been caught. We shall never succeed if we believe these people will welcome the liberation from Plato’s Cave.

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January 08, 2015, 04:20:28 AM
 #19907

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.

They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

To be clear "no public stock" doesn't mean no stock. VC pump-and-dump works pretty much the same way as coin pump-and-dump or even public stock pump-and-dump. Hype the company, sell equity at progressively higher valuations, and then arrange for an "exit."

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January 08, 2015, 04:28:57 AM
 #19908

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.

They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

To be clear "no public stock" doesn't mean no stock. VC pump-and-dump works pretty much the same way as coin pump-and-dump or even public stock pump-and-dump. Hype the company, sell equity at progressively higher valuations, and then arrange for an "exit."


I don't qualify for that, so I'll just have to buy bitcoins instead.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 08, 2015, 05:07:46 AM
 #19909

...
Gaud, the last thing i want to do is create another massive thread like the "Gold-I smell a trap" one over in Economics that went on for 5 months.  it was just too much work.  most ppl here into gold/silver won't like what i have to say so don't bother reading further.
...


1000 pages later...

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


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January 08, 2015, 05:24:36 AM
 #19910

1000 pages  Shocked

*golfclap*

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
BlindMayorBitcorn
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January 08, 2015, 09:07:59 AM
 #19911

1000 pages  Shocked

*golfclap*

Bitcoin no longer UP, as it were.

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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January 08, 2015, 09:22:12 AM
 #19912



Congratulations to one of the best threads in BTCT history!

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Core GUI - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }
MoneroForCash.com  |  Buy and sell XMR near you  |  Easymonero.com  |  Bitsquare.io - Decentralized XMR Exchange
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004


Warning Dash is a planned instamine, it wasn't
lunarboy
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January 08, 2015, 11:06:14 AM
 #19913

1000 pages .... Gold hasn't collapsed and Bitcoin is not UP  Tongue

see you at 2000  Undecided
iCEBREAKER
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Crypto is the separation of Power and State.


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January 08, 2015, 11:21:38 AM
 #19914

1000 pages .... Gold hasn't collapsed and Bitcoin is not UP  Tongue

see you at 2000  Undecided

This thread started in March 2012, when gold was much higher and BTC was much lower.

Cypherdoc will never bring me into his 'barbarous relic' camp of Maximalists, but credit where due is appropriate.

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Core GUI - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }
MoneroForCash.com  |  Buy and sell XMR near you  |  Easymonero.com  |  Bitsquare.io - Decentralized XMR Exchange
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004


Warning Dash is a planned instamine, it wasn't
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January 08, 2015, 11:36:26 AM
 #19915

not so long ago there was talk in this thread of gold being 1:1 with BTC, now its over 4:1BTC to gold

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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January 08, 2015, 01:23:23 PM
 #19916

Last in at page 1000!

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 08, 2015, 01:52:41 PM
 #19917

keep it rolling guys.  Cool
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January 08, 2015, 02:41:23 PM
 #19918

A gazillion hashes/second doesn't make the network secure and in fact the number of hashes is completely irrelevant. What matters for the most part is the amount of electricity used and secondarily the cost of the mining equipment. For example 100 watts buys you something on the order of 200 GH/sec of SHA256D. The same 100 watts would buy you perhaps 300 hashes/sec of (to pick one with which I happen to be familiar) CryptoNight. These are approximately equal in value for mining; 200 GH/sec of one algorithm is not 2/3 of a billion times "more secure" than 300 H/s of another. These units are incomparable.

The current bitcoin network is about 150 megawatts. That's something on the order of a 1-2 million PCs using a CPU algorithm. At least until specialized hardware and mining farms developed, a bitcoin forked to a CPU/GPU algorithm would look a lot like a million bitcoin users all mining on their computers. Sounds pretty darn secure to me.

(Is this your "technical objection"?)

You are assuming that 2 million bitcoin users would all rather upgrade to the "rebel" chain and start mining on their own CPUs rather than accept the cartel's proposed change to the protocol.

No I'm assuming that given the choice between software upgrade A, from some foreign source, that modifies the protocol in favor of some other interest group, or software upgrade B, from the same place they got their software in the first place, that protects their own interests, they would choose B.

As for who would mine on their PC, that is simply incentive based. The same 25 BTC are being produced every 10 minutes. If running a little program on your PC allows you to "generate free money from the interwebs" then, sure, many people would do it. Not only many of the existing million or so BTC users but many other as well (historically BTC mining booms have attracted new users -- as expected via greed -- especially during the CPU and GPU eras).

Given 25 BTC being mined every 10 minutes, profit motive will attract people to mine on their computers, mine on the old computer in their attic, mine on their friends' computers, buy new computers, etc. until approximately the same 150 MW is mining as before. As for cloud mining, I suggest you do some industry research to find out how much cloud computing capacity is available and how much it costs. You will find that your assumptions about what is available to be grossly inaccurate, if you think cloud mining is a serious threat (in fact, it would initially be more of a source of honest profit-motivated mining, before becoming uncompetitive).

Please redo your calculation after recognizing that even if only 10% of users get involved, at all, with mining, many of those will get involved on a significantly larger scale. At the low end that means 2-10 computers, or building GPU rigs with a half dozen GPUs (each roughly equivalent to a desktop in capacity), etc. At the high end it means semi-pro to pro-farms with dozens of rigs, initially, even larger over time. Oh, and let's not forget botnets. They'd also join the party, bringing many more computers to grab their share of the "Free Internet Money!"

This is not theoretical; every aspect of what I wrote in the previous two paragraphs has happened during every BTC mining boom and every altcoin mining boom. Your claim that it wouldn't is backed by no historical or other evidence whatsoever.

Let me be clear about this -- I don't expect any of this to happen. I won't happen because everyone -- including the miners -- knows that it could and would happen if a mining cartel tried to exercise the power you claim they have (but actually don't) to fork the protocol in its favor. Therefore it won't happen.

If a mining cartel does indeed fork the protocol in its favor as your model predicts, then I will come back here and eat crow. If it doesn't happen (over some reasonable period of time -- say by the next block having or the one thereafter), will you do the same? As you know I would prefer a substantial bet, but you apparently are either not confident in or insincere about your statements or don't like the idea of receiving free money from a stranger on the internet.

Lets give him odds.  2 for 1.  I'll join in this bet, but lets make it more interesting...  Whichever fails first.  Brazil's Real, or Bitcoin.  First one to zero loses.

Jorge is living in fantasy land with his imagined world where people act against their own interests to support a cartel.
It is feasible to him, because he is doing it himself and has for his whole career as a state worker, believing that Brazil will remain solvent, or not caring that it won't and just enjoying that largess at the expense of those who can't.

Brazil "manages" their economy jerking it back and forth.  Then when it fails, workers will blame the company that leaves due to the state's mismanagement, rather than think about Alexandre Tombini's nonsense.  Sure, bring in Levy from the IMF for just a little more groupthink.

When they are done and have had their way with the poor people of Brazil, Bitcoin will remain here for them.  The Shame on Jorge for trying to convince them otherwise.

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January 08, 2015, 04:23:06 PM
 #19919

once again, i seriously doubt the $DJT will get back up over the top of its previous high before the $DJI fails its advance thus confirming the Dow Theory non-confirmation.  we'll see:

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January 08, 2015, 04:58:20 PM
 #19920

I'm assuming that given the choice between software upgrade A, from some foreign source, that modifies the protocol in favor of some other interest group, or software upgrade B, from the same place they got their software in the first place, that protects their own interests, they would choose B.

Wait, are you saying that there is an Authority that the bitcoiners must trust?  Wink

You must be referring to the The Shrem Karpelès & Friends Foundation, and/or Gavin Andersen who works for it, as the source of the Red Button upgrade B. But why do you presume that an entity that has Sergei "Ponzi King" Mavrodi and Brock "RealCoin" Pierce on board, as well as many of the big miners, would not side with the big miners' cartel?  How can you be sure that Gavin will not be employed by the cartel at the time?

The Red Button threat may serve to protect the user's interests against miner abuse, if it is credible.  However, actually carrying out that threat would be extremely damaging to the users, because it would inevitably split the coin and cause the total price to drop.  Whoever calls for rebellion and releases that code will not be "protecting the users interests", but telling them to sacrifice their money for the sake of the PoIotPUGTiiaGI (Principle of Inviolability of the Protocol Unless Gavin Thinks it is a Good Idea).

Perhaps the Red Button solution should be renamed "the Jim Jones solution"?

Quote
As for who would mine on their PC, that is simply incentive based. The same 25 BTC are being produced every 10 minutes.
You meant 12.5 rebelBTC per block.  (It is the ex-bitcoin miners who will earn 25 cartelBTC per block.)  But it doesn't matter.

Quote
Given 25 BTC being mined every 10 minutes, profit motive will attract people to mine on their computers, mine on the old computer in their attack, mine on their friends' computers, buy new computers, etc. until approximately the same 150 MW is mining as before.
Correction: until the electricity and equipment costs are Pr*1800 $/day, where Pr is the market value of the rebelBTC coin; that is, at most (Pr/Po)*75 MW, where Po is the BTC price before the cartel's announcement.  Even if the rebel's bitcoin were to retain the full value of the old bitcoin, that would be only 75 MW.  But it doesn't matter, either.

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Please redo your calculation after recognizing that even if only 10% of users get involved, at all, with mining, many of those will get involved on a significantly larger scale. [ Many players will ] join the party, bringing many more computers to grab their share of the "Free Internet Money!"

Well, the cartel will want to be the first in that line.  As soon as John Connor releases the rebel mining code, the SkyNet cartel will download it and set some rented CPUs to the task of jamming the rebel blockchain (and warn users that it will be doing that).  The cartel will keep increasing their CPU power as needed, so as to retain a majority of hashpower in that chain too.  So, the users who upgrade their wallet software to the rebel protocol will not be able to use their coins; and any opportunistic miners who try mining the rebel chain will get nothing.  This attack may cost the cartel a lot of money, but the stake for them is half a million dollars a day for 2 years, so they will try all they can to preserve the value of their coin. How long will it be, before the rebel users and miners give up?

(By the way, I meant that the cartel can rent cloud computing, not cloud mining as it its usually understood.)

Note also that, since the goal of pressing the Red Button is to destroy the value of bitcoin, the cartel could also justify the jamming of the rebel chain as an action to save bitcoin by preventing the disastrous split; and call for all good bitcoiners to come to the help of their cause, by cooperating in the jamming.

But it doesn't matter either.

I hope you kept reading my post beyond the first half, specifically beyond this sentence: "But let's say that a substantial number of users do join the rebel ranks, and the cartel leaves the Red Button chain alone, or fails to jam it."

Note that the effect of the Red Button would be to create a new crypto, the rebelBTC, that is a cloned copy of the original Bitcoin (oldBTC), including its state.  Namely, every owner of N oldBTC receives a gift of N rebelBTC, sitting in the same address of the rebel blockchain, which is accessed with the same private key.  Meanwhile, the cartel will give N cartelBTC to the same user, in the cartel's blockchain, while blocking further use of the oldBTC.  From that point on, each copy of each original satoshi can be hoarded, sold, spent, or burned independently of the other copy.

(For example, the USMS will suddenly find themselves owning 94'000 rebelBTC and 94'000 cartelBTC, as well as 94'000 oldBTC that they cannot move because of the cartel's jamming.  They could auction each separately or (more likely) bundle them together in lots of (say) 2000 rebelBTC plus 2000 cartelBTC.  In this second case, they would need to duplicate each transaction request for both chains as they deliver the coins to the winning bidders.)

The point is that the Red Button does not "steal" the users from the cartel's chain.  It does not even give the unhappy users the option of taking their BTC out of the cartel chain and into the rebel chain.  All bitcoin users would become users of both coins.

So the cartel chain will continue to have all the bitcoin users, as well bitcoin's 500 PH/s network; whereas the rebel chain will have all the users but only a nascent CPU network.  

This would be a very interesting experiment.  Has this ever happened before -- somebody creating an altcoin that duplicates bitcoin's protocol and its state, namely a persistent fork of the bitcoin blockchain?

The first question is what will happen to the prices Pc and Pr of the two coins, cartelBTC and rebelBTC, and how would they compare to the price Po of bitcoin before the split.  It seems unlikely that Pc + Pr will be more than Po. (If that were the case, people would rush to press the Red Button now, without waiting for any attack!)  Most likely, some of the old value would be lost, and the rest would be split between the two chains; so that Pr + Pc << Po.  

The next question is how the remaining value will be split between the two chains.  That depends on the credibility of the two coins in the eyes of prospective buyers (bitcoiners and non-bitcoiners).  If the cartel sets out to jam the rebel chain, and manages to keep it jammed for sufficiently long time, then Pr will soon be zero.  Since normal users will see no diffrence between oldBTC and cartelBTC, Pc will probably retain a significant fraction of Po. (I would guess Pc will be almost equal to Po, actually; but I know that I live in a fantasy world where bitcoiners care more about their money than about the ancap ideals.).

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If a mining cartel does indeed fork the protocol in its favor as your model predicts, then I will come back here and eat crow. If it doesn't happen (over some reasonable period of time -- say by the next block having or the one thereafter), will you do the same? As you know I would prefer a substantial bet, but you apparently are either not confident in or insincere about your statements or don't like the idea of receiving free money from a stranger on the internet.

As I said before, I am not predicting anything.  You and other people claimed that a miner cartel cannot force a change in the protocol.  I tried to show that it can, by providing a step-by-step plan that they could follow.  That plan would obviously work, just as it always works for any cartel that can deny an essential service to its customers.  But that would be an unpleasant fact, so you prefer to believe the fantasy that the 300 Spartan bitcoiners would rally at Gavin's call in a suicidal stand against the army of Persian money-chasers…

If Gavin could really do that, then who would put money into bitcoin?

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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