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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1803964 times)
JorgeStolfi
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January 08, 2015, 02:50:54 AM
 #19901

A gazillion hashes/second doesn't make the network secure and in fact the number of hashes is completely irrelevant. What matters for the most part is the amount of electricity used and secondarily the cost of the mining equipment. For example 100 watts buys you something on the order of 200 GH/sec of SHA256D. The same 100 watts would buy you perhaps 300 hashes/sec of (to pick one with which I happen to be familiar) CryptoNight. These are approximately equal in value for mining; 200 GH/sec of one algorithm is not 2/3 of a billion times "more secure" than 300 H/s of another. These units are incomparable.

The current bitcoin network is about 150 megawatts. That's something on the order of a 1-2 million PCs using a CPU algorithm. At least until specialized hardware and mining farms developed, a bitcoin forked to a CPU/GPU algorithm would look a lot like a million bitcoin users all mining on their computers. Sounds pretty darn secure to me.

(Is this your "technical objection"?)

You are assuming that 2 million bitcoin users would all rather upgrade to the "rebel" chain and start mining on their own CPUs rather than accept the cartel's proposed change to the protocol.  (Can you see the "belief about how the community would react" there?)  It is like saying that if the banks decided to raise their fees, all their clients would take their cash out and create a banking system of their own, out of their garages and kitchens.

But let's say that all users were to feel like that.  First, the number "2 million" depends on who you count as "bitcoin user". (I gather that the number of full nodes is less than 10 thousand, isn't that so?)

As of last september, there were only 650'000 bitcoin addresses in the blockchain with at least 0.1 BTC in them; and less than 160'000 with at least 1 BTC in them.  Addresses are not people, of course, and many people who own bitcoins keep them all in MtGOX Bitstamp Coinbase or some such place; but wouldn't you agree that someone who has more than a uh-tried-it-once interest in bitcoin should have at least one blockchain address of his own with at least 1 BTC in it?

So, if we take that criterion as a cutoff, we are talking about 200'000 real users at most.  Now, how many of them would have the knowledge, time, patience, and computing resources to downlad the "Red Button" mining code and start mining?  How many will put up with the extra load on their PCs and laptops to secure their 2.73 BTC?  10% maybe? ("belief about how the community would react" again…)

So, even if most of the users hate the cartel and choose to upgrade their wallet software to the Red Button protocol, there may be perhaps only 20'000 PCs and laptops mining the rebel chain.  At (guess) 300 W per machine devoted to mining, 24/7, that would be 6 MW securing the Red Code fork.  If the cartel wanted to jam it too, how much cloud computing power would it need to rent to match their Red Button hashing power, and how much would it cost?

But let's say that a substantial number of users do join the rebel ranks, and the cartel leaves the Red Code chain alone, or fails to jam it.  So then there would be two two competing and incompatible coins, SunniCoin and ShiaCoin, both claiming to be the real Bitcoin.

One coin uses practically the same protocol, with a small change to the halving schedule, and claims to have a large state-of-the-art mining network comprising all former bitcoin miners (mostly turned off at present, because of the lower coin value would probably negate the doubled reward).

The other runs a protocol that is mostly similar to Satoshi's, but is incompatible with all mining equipment, and has a much smaller network (whether measured in MW, or in CPU computing power).

Everyone who owned N bitcoins right before the split, whether he likes it or not, would own N SunniCoins and N ShiaCoins just after the split.  However, the two blockchains would inevitably diverge, therefore transactions in one cannot (and should not) be automatically mirrored in the other.  Indeed, those users who are not absolute purists will hoard, sell, or spend both coins independently, for whatever price each would fetch.  To do that, they would have to duplicate their bitcoin wallet at the time of the split, and install both versions of their wallet software.  Most users will probably do that eventually (the alternative is pure loss), unless one of the coins dies out first.

Note that both coins will start out with the same set of owners, so neither can boast of having most of the users.  A user who wants SunniCoin to die can only  refuse to be paid in SunniCoin, and spend, sell, or burn all his SunniCoins.  So, paradoxically, if most users want ShiaCoin to flourish, there will be a surge of traffic in the SunniCoin blockchain, and vice-versa.  

How would prospective crypto investor choose between the two?  If someone was looking for a venture to invest his retirement money, which would he choose: a restaurant in Donetsk, or an apparel store in Northern Iraq?
 
Obviously both coins will see their price collapse, and their combined marketcap will be much less than the bitcoin marketcap before the split.   It is as if bitcoiners woke up one day to find that each bitcoin they owned had been swapped for one Litecoin plus one Dogecoin.

So, the RedCoin solution would be a near suicide by the users, even if they had support for their coin in all payment processors and other services.  It would break the trust in both coins, not only among ideologues, but also among the majority of the "materialistic" users.  Large holders, fund investors, the service companies, and the VC investors who put their money into them would together lose a billion dollars or more.  Ditto for any other solution that splits the blockchain into two independent chains.

Now rewind the movie to before the split.  You own an exchange or a payment processor.  You must decide whether to come out in favor of the cartel, or of the announced rebellion, or just avoid taking sides.  In any case, you must handle the two future forks as two distinct coins.  If you do not want to take sides, you should provide support in your service for both coins, each with its own set of accounts (and its own ledger, order book, or whatever).  Note that each bitcoin that your clients had deposited will become one SunniCoin and one ShiaCoin, both under your control.

The alternative is to provide support for only one of the coins, in an attempt to push your clients towards it.  But if you provide support only for ShiaCoins, you must still let your clients withdraw their SunniCoins, otherwise you would be stealing them.

Now, if most of the bitcoin users submit to the cartel, your losses will be minimal, assuming that you provide support in your service for the cartel's coin.  In any other case, you will lose millions of dollars, even if you provide support for the rebel's coin.  What would you do?

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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January 08, 2015, 02:55:57 AM
 #19902

"Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP"?

"UP"?

LMAO.


More like gold downtrending, bitcoin crashing to the ground.

fools.






"But... but... but... bitcoin is still a gazillionX since it was created!"

Yeah, like when it will be at $10. Still 100X since mtgox early days. Enjoy it. Keep the permabullshit going.
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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January 08, 2015, 03:18:11 AM
 #19903

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.

They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 08, 2015, 03:19:25 AM
 #19904

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/lg/bitcoin

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January 08, 2015, 03:34:52 AM
 #19905

A gazillion hashes/second doesn't make the network secure and in fact the number of hashes is completely irrelevant. What matters for the most part is the amount of electricity used and secondarily the cost of the mining equipment. For example 100 watts buys you something on the order of 200 GH/sec of SHA256D. The same 100 watts would buy you perhaps 300 hashes/sec of (to pick one with which I happen to be familiar) CryptoNight. These are approximately equal in value for mining; 200 GH/sec of one algorithm is not 2/3 of a billion times "more secure" than 300 H/s of another. These units are incomparable.

The current bitcoin network is about 150 megawatts. That's something on the order of a 1-2 million PCs using a CPU algorithm. At least until specialized hardware and mining farms developed, a bitcoin forked to a CPU/GPU algorithm would look a lot like a million bitcoin users all mining on their computers. Sounds pretty darn secure to me.

(Is this your "technical objection"?)

You are assuming that 2 million bitcoin users would all rather upgrade to the "rebel" chain and start mining on their own CPUs rather than accept the cartel's proposed change to the protocol.

No I'm assuming that given the choice between software upgrade A, from some foreign source, that modifies the protocol in favor of some other interest group, or software upgrade B, from the same place they got their software in the first place, that protects their own interests, they would choose B.

As for who would mine on their PC, that is simply incentive based. The same 25 BTC are being produced every 10 minutes. If running a little program on your PC allows you to "generate free money from the interwebs" then, sure, many people would do it. Not only many of the existing million or so BTC users but many other as well (historically BTC mining booms have attracted new users -- as expected via greed -- especially during the CPU and GPU eras).

Given 25 BTC being mined every 10 minutes, profit motive will attract people to mine on their computers, mine on the old computer in their attic, mine on their friends' computers, buy new computers, etc. until approximately the same 150 MW is mining as before. As for cloud mining, I suggest you do some industry research to find out how much cloud computing capacity is available and how much it costs. You will find that your assumptions about what is available to be grossly inaccurate, if you think cloud mining is a serious threat (in fact, it would initially be more of a source of honest profit-motivated mining, before becoming uncompetitive).

Please redo your calculation after recognizing that even if only 10% of users get involved, at all, with mining, many of those will get involved on a significantly larger scale. At the low end that means 2-10 computers, or building GPU rigs with a half dozen GPUs (each roughly equivalent to a desktop in capacity), etc. At the high end it means semi-pro to pro-farms with dozens of rigs, initially, even larger over time. Oh, and let's not forget botnets. They'd also join the party, bringing many more computers to grab their share of the "Free Internet Money!"

This is not theoretical; every aspect of what I wrote in the previous two paragraphs has happened during every BTC mining boom and every altcoin mining boom. Your claim that it wouldn't is backed by no historical or other evidence whatsoever.

Let me be clear about this -- I don't expect any of this to happen. I won't happen because everyone -- including the miners -- knows that it could and would happen if a mining cartel tried to exercise the power you claim they have (but actually don't) to fork the protocol in its favor. Therefore it won't happen.

If a mining cartel does indeed fork the protocol in its favor as your model predicts, then I will come back here and eat crow. If it doesn't happen (over some reasonable period of time -- say by the next block having or the one thereafter), will you do the same? As you know I would prefer a substantial bet, but you apparently are either not confident in or insincere about your statements or don't like the idea of receiving free money from a stranger on the internet.
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January 08, 2015, 03:39:07 AM
 #19906

page 1000!!!!! Grin

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January 08, 2015, 03:41:46 AM
 #19907

page 1000!!!!! Grin

Haha, we've sunken to the level of the Wall Observer thread.

Page 1000!! Cheesy

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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January 08, 2015, 03:48:03 AM
 #19908

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.


They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

I've been trying to play catch-up a bit having not paid close attention to the crypto-currency world for a while and figure out the whole monetas, conformal, nxt, btcd, ot, supernet, jl777, bluemeanie, etc, etc, thing.  From what I read, one formulation of scammery is to issue 'a chunk' of the action of some project or another (or NXT or whatever) but it turns out to be a much smaller chunk than advertised or valueless or something.  At this point in my looking around it strikes me as one of those scam nests run by old timers who've been at it for decades.  Sort of like the BFL dudes.  I could be wrong-ish, but I probably won't bother to research the stuff much more.  There is no way I would touch it one way or another.  At this point just watching who comes along trying to pump it up will be interesting to observe.  It doesn't mean that they are bad people per se, but they probably are at least classic marks.

It is not hard to see how sidechains threatens a lot of these efforts no matter what the underlying driver or drivers behind them happen to be.  It's very possible that sidechains will work fairly well and mitigate some of the looming problems with the Bitcoin network in a way which will be more difficult to capitalize on or exploit.


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January 08, 2015, 03:53:09 AM
 #19909

high octane anti-trollery
http://btctheory.com/2015/01/08/bitcoins-people-problem/
Quote
Stupidity is a poor excuse for failing to understand how technology and money works, but alas, we are in a world ran by a union of morons, commanded by sociopathic capitalists and politicians. Those who believe in bitcoin’s demise are the same sniveling cowards who cannot see past their own avarice and callowness to ever accomplish something great–they simply want to punch the clown each day, satisfied at the safety of being commanded by another. They are cowards happy to obey governments and laws that can only be defined as illegal and tyrannical.

These are the fools who would plead that the bitcoin’s cause can never succeed; not understanding the purpose is the struggle against the system as it is. The fools bitch of being ripped off by banks, and then offer hollow stares when told of what bitcoin can do. They demand to be told how bitcoin works, without a damn clue how fiat works. The only problem that bitcoin has is that stupid people do not want to be free and independent–they demand to be ruled and governed, and to have you dragged down with their sad little boat of life.

These clowns tell me of how pleasurable life is on their knees, and how they are allowed so many of the scraps from the table of Empire! That a life of looking towards the ground is not only a great pleasure, but one of deep honor. These people love their duty to their God of the state. They will offer any excuse to justify the needs of their master, any reason to qualify the barbarism they execute daily. There is nothing that the state can do that the slaves cannot create a justification for. If these are the very idiots that we must rely upon to help us create our change, I must animate the seriousness of the dilemma in which we have been caught. We shall never succeed if we believe these people will welcome the liberation from Plato’s Cave.

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January 08, 2015, 04:20:28 AM
 #19910

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.

They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

To be clear "no public stock" doesn't mean no stock. VC pump-and-dump works pretty much the same way as coin pump-and-dump or even public stock pump-and-dump. Hype the company, sell equity at progressively higher valuations, and then arrange for an "exit."

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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January 08, 2015, 04:28:57 AM
 #19911

Oh, so you are just an OT pumper.

They are a private company with no public stock. They have no altcoin. What is there to pump? I would like to know so I can invest.

To be clear "no public stock" doesn't mean no stock. VC pump-and-dump works pretty much the same way as coin pump-and-dump or even public stock pump-and-dump. Hype the company, sell equity at progressively higher valuations, and then arrange for an "exit."


I don't qualify for that, so I'll just have to buy bitcoins instead.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 08, 2015, 05:07:46 AM
 #19912

...
Gaud, the last thing i want to do is create another massive thread like the "Gold-I smell a trap" one over in Economics that went on for 5 months.  it was just too much work.  most ppl here into gold/silver won't like what i have to say so don't bother reading further.
...


1000 pages later...

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


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January 08, 2015, 05:24:36 AM
 #19913

1000 pages  Shocked

*golfclap*

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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January 08, 2015, 09:07:59 AM
 #19914

1000 pages  Shocked

*golfclap*

Bitcoin no longer UP, as it were.

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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January 08, 2015, 09:22:12 AM
 #19915



Congratulations to one of the best threads in BTCT history!

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
lunarboy
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January 08, 2015, 11:06:14 AM
 #19916

1000 pages .... Gold hasn't collapsed and Bitcoin is not UP  Tongue

see you at 2000  Undecided
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January 08, 2015, 11:21:38 AM
 #19917

1000 pages .... Gold hasn't collapsed and Bitcoin is not UP  Tongue

see you at 2000  Undecided

This thread started in March 2012, when gold was much higher and BTC was much lower.

Cypherdoc will never bring me into his 'barbarous relic' camp of Maximalists, but credit where due is appropriate.

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
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January 08, 2015, 11:36:26 AM
 #19918

not so long ago there was talk in this thread of gold being 1:1 with BTC, now its over 4:1BTC to gold
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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January 08, 2015, 01:23:23 PM
 #19919

Last in at page 1000!

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 08, 2015, 01:52:41 PM
 #19920

keep it rolling guys.  Cool
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