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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2010206 times)
Melbustus
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January 21, 2015, 04:44:26 AM
 #20461

...

My interest is and always has been in straight-up 'reserve currencies'.  Ultra light-weight and quite high latency (or low block frequency which is more familiar to folks.)  Probably kept lite way by kicking people out who don't maintain a minimum and cleaning up after them (by trashing whatever mess they've left.)  It would very deliberately NOT be for everyone.  Those who cannot stand the heat (which would vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction) are a liability.  The only goal would be to provide backing to more user-friendly solutions (much as sidechains are trying to be.)  The value would be that it would be ultra-difficult to put out of action which is what I see as the most important aspect of a reserve currency.

It would be designed to protect against a dedicated and persistant attack using all means available (now and in the foreseeable future) by internet network providers who I do not and cannot trust.  By being small, this would include operating steganographically at a minimum, but in operation it would foster the growth of functionality not even making use of the global internet at all.  Private links and 'IPoAC'-like data channels would be rewarded so they would maintain a reasonable representation.

I've seen nothing like this and nobody showing any interest which surprises me a little.  Oh well.

I'm ambivalent about anonymity.  It's got advantages and disadvantages for the goals of a solution such as I'm imagining, though probably more of the former.




It sounds like you want digital gold. Not the superclass to gold that bitcoin represents, but more of a direct electronic clone.

I kinda don't think that works longrun for the same reasons I don't think gold works longrun anymore: neither would be *actually* useful day-to-day. So you're insuring for the same semi-apocalypse scenario. Which is fine if that's your thing; let's just be clear on how fat a slice of the long-tail you're hedging: thin.

To be clear, I find it unlikely that such a thing, so untied from everyday economic use demand, can last as a desirable value store. Gold developed the way it did *out of* exchange utility. The last link (and government-enforced at that) to that was severed in 1971 and gold is now mainly flying on historical momentum. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but that's the thesis.

I think a meaningful friction-of-exchange-reducing economic link is likely critical for a non-industrial-use commodity to retain longterm value.

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tabnloz
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January 21, 2015, 07:24:17 AM
 #20462

Related to the Greed discussion earlier.

Former CEO of Citibank personally invested in Coinbase's latest $75M raise.
http://dcmagnates.com/coinbase-secures-record-75-million-investment-led-by-dfj/

Slowly but surely Bitcoin is creeping into the halls of those in power. Unlike with most new constructs where most of us are blocked by regulation from participating since we are not "accredited investors", with Bitcoin we can invest directly and in many cases front run wall street.

The investment by NTT Docomo (mobile phone operator in Japan) is also an interesting move; they'd be the first market leading telco if they integrated with bitcoin and could expand / diversify into different sectors ala M-Pesa
molecular
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January 21, 2015, 08:59:45 AM
 #20463

"limited supply is NO guarantee that hyperinflation doesn't occur. This is explained by the literature about price indeterminacy"
(link in dutch if you don't believe me he said that: https://twitter.com/GertPeersman/status/557311020965064704)

lol. I'd like to know his definitions of 'hyperinflation' and 'limited supply'. One of them must be weird... maybe he's talking about price inflation?

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smooth
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January 21, 2015, 09:32:43 AM
 #20464

"limited supply is NO guarantee that hyperinflation doesn't occur. This is explained by the literature about price indeterminacy"
(link in dutch if you don't believe me he said that: https://twitter.com/GertPeersman/status/557311020965064704)

lol. I'd like to know his definitions of 'hyperinflation' and 'limited supply'. One of them must be weird... maybe he's talking about price inflation?

Yes he was.

Even so, it is in a sense money supply inflation but only relative to the equilibrium money supply with a lower assumed velocity.

If the velocity increases then all else being equal to maintain constant prices you would need the money supply to decrease.
dnaleor
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January 21, 2015, 11:15:10 AM
 #20465

"limited supply is NO guarantee that hyperinflation doesn't occur. This is explained by the literature about price indeterminacy"
(link in dutch if you don't believe me he said that: https://twitter.com/GertPeersman/status/557311020965064704)

lol. I'd like to know his definitions of 'hyperinflation' and 'limited supply'. One of them must be weird... maybe he's talking about price inflation?


he is. But even then...
Hyper(price)inflation can only occur under limited supply when the velocity of money trends towards infinity.
And I can't imagine an infinite velocity of money for BTC. Hoarding prevents that. Hence, store of value function of a currency.

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NewLiberty
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January 21, 2015, 11:53:37 AM
 #20466

"limited supply is NO guarantee that hyperinflation doesn't occur. This is explained by the literature about price indeterminacy"
(link in dutch if you don't believe me he said that: https://twitter.com/GertPeersman/status/557311020965064704)

lol. I'd like to know his definitions of 'hyperinflation' and 'limited supply'. One of them must be weird... maybe he's talking about price inflation?


I'd concede that limited supply is NO guarantee that hyperinflation doesn't occur... if and only if he would concede that limited supply is simply a better assurance that hyperinflation doesn't occur, than any monetary policy in an inflationary currency which is manipulated by groups that benefit from the inflation (central banks and governments)...has EVER provided in the history of money.

He is being a pedantic ass, but a forgivable one.  It has to be a very difficult job to defend an indefensible position for year after year.

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Adrian-x
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January 21, 2015, 03:51:49 PM
 #20467

"limited supply is NO guarantee that hyperinflation doesn't occur. This is explained by the literature about price indeterminacy"
(link in dutch if you don't believe me he said that: https://twitter.com/GertPeersman/status/557311020965064704)

lol. I'd like to know his definitions of 'hyperinflation' and 'limited supply'. One of them must be weird... maybe he's talking about price inflation?

The scientific definition is prolonged whale dumping.
Edit - I see the prevailing wisdom is better expressed  Smiley I'll add it's less likely as we're all central bankers now, and everyone benefits if we do it well.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
cypherdoc
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January 21, 2015, 05:16:54 PM
 #20468

"limited supply is NO guarantee that hyperinflation doesn't occur. This is explained by the literature about price indeterminacy"
(link in dutch if you don't believe me he said that: https://twitter.com/GertPeersman/status/557311020965064704)

lol. I'd like to know his definitions of 'hyperinflation' and 'limited supply'. One of them must be weird... maybe he's talking about price inflation?

Yes he was.

Even so, it is in a sense money supply inflation but only relative to the equilibrium money supply with a lower assumed velocity.

If the velocity increases then all else being equal to maintain constant prices you would need the money supply to decrease.

it depends.  if the fundamentals are good and the market psychology is positive, increasing usage aka velocity, may be interpreted as a good thing or as a concept "catching on".  market participants in that scenario would be encouraged to bid up prices to get in on the action.
cypherdoc
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January 21, 2015, 05:25:40 PM
 #20469

i think this is the Internet and continues:



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/01/global-middle-class/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
cypherdoc
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January 21, 2015, 05:35:50 PM
 #20470

another one bites the dust:

http://www.finextra.com/news/fullstory.aspx?newsitemid=26908
79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX
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January 21, 2015, 05:50:30 PM
 #20471

I suppose they see no point in sinking more money in half-measures. Especially when a thorough solution is in sight.
cypherdoc
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January 21, 2015, 05:52:40 PM
 #20472

I suppose they see no point in sinking more money in half-measures. Especially when a thorough solution is in sight.

next failure coming; ApplePay.
rocks
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January 21, 2015, 05:57:03 PM
 #20473

EU proposal for printing €50B/month (or €0.6T/year).

ECB Executive Board’s QE Proposal Calls for Roughly €50 Billion in Bond Buys Per Month
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-executive-boards-qe-proposal-calls-for-roughly-50-billion-in-bond-buys-per-month-1421851130

Maybe it's time to change the thread title to what is really going on "Fiat collapsing. Bitcoin UP"
cypherdoc
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January 21, 2015, 06:05:53 PM
 #20474

EU proposal for printing €50B/month (or €0.6T/year).

ECB Executive Board’s QE Proposal Calls for Roughly €50 Billion in Bond Buys Per Month
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-executive-boards-qe-proposal-calls-for-roughly-50-billion-in-bond-buys-per-month-1421851130

Maybe it's time to change the thread title to what is really going on "Fiat collapsing. Bitcoin UP"

actually, i'm quite pissed that i missed the chance to re-short gold @ 1307 this morning. it came right up to my target of several months ago. got a limit order up right now that i hope gets hit. c'mon gold, c'mon.
79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX
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January 21, 2015, 06:16:09 PM
 #20475

I suppose they see no point in sinking more money in half-measures. Especially when a thorough solution is in sight.
next failure coming; ApplePay.
Apple is not Amazon ...  more plausible would be for their engineers to take care of the ApplePay UI with bitcoin under the hood. Any problems with that?
cypherdoc
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January 21, 2015, 06:54:05 PM
 #20476

I suppose they see no point in sinking more money in half-measures. Especially when a thorough solution is in sight.
next failure coming; ApplePay.
Apple is not Amazon ...  more plausible would be for their engineers to take care of the ApplePay UI with bitcoin under the hood. Any problems with that?

no, theoretically not.  shouldn't be too complicated at all.

the question, will they do that, especially before they scrap the project.  who knows.
tvbcof
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January 21, 2015, 07:52:50 PM
 #20477

...

It sounds like you want digital gold. Not the superclass to gold that bitcoin represents, but more of a direct electronic clone.

I had not thought of it that way, but I like it!  It fits quite well in a lot of ways.


I kinda don't think that works longrun for the same reasons I don't think gold works longrun anymore: neither would be *actually* useful day-to-day. So you're insuring for the same semi-apocalypse scenario. Which is fine if that's your thing; let's just be clear on how fat a slice of the long-tail you're hedging: thin.

To be clear, I find it unlikely that such a thing, so untied from everyday economic use demand, can last as a desirable value store. Gold developed the way it did *out of* exchange utility. The last link (and government-enforced at that) to that was severed in 1971 and gold is now mainly flying on historical momentum. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but that's the thesis.

I think a meaningful friction-of-exchange-reducing economic link is likely critical for a non-industrial-use commodity to retain longterm value.

To me there is little functional difference be between being backed by something powerful (fiat-laws, gold-pyhsics, BTC-math) and using the solid item itself as backing.  Hence my focus on 'reserve currency'.  Something like sidechains or [gold|fiat]-backed USD can provide all the ornamentals and don't need to be bothered with the heavy lifting of securing the base value.

So, I don't buy the contention that something needs to be 'useful day-to-day' to have long term value.  Indeed I see the opposite as being more true.

I freely admit that I am more of a Keynsian than not.  Central planning and manipulation can provide longer stretches of better performance for more people.  But I think that any honest Keynsians will admit that their games are cyclic and periodic resets are necessary.  Usually marked by devolution into blatant cronyism and totalitarian nightmare as the fiat backing (the justice system) fails.  My interest in Bitcoin (and gold) are for their utility value at such relatively rare junctures.  While we wait, I do believe that the blooming of opportunities afforded by the flexibility of sidechain developments could do good things for a lot of groups, and could materially effect the outcome of a Keynsian reset.  Hopefully in a good way.


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January 21, 2015, 07:54:35 PM
 #20478

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/01/21/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-1-scarcity/
Zarathustra
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January 21, 2015, 08:10:51 PM
 #20479


I freely admit that I am more of a Keynsian than not.  Central planning and manipulation can provide longer stretches of better performance for more people. 

Here in Switzerland we have less central planning but 'longer stretches of better performance for more people'.
Wekkel
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January 21, 2015, 08:13:09 PM
 #20480


Contains a precious quote:

Quote
Bitcoin needs millions, and then billions, of users who demand better money. The demand for Bitcoin must be strong enough that they will break the law if that’s what it takes to obtain it.

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