Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[rocks]

EU proposal for printing €50B/month (or €0.6T/year).

ECB Executive Board’s QE Proposal Calls for Roughly €50 Billion in Bond Buys Per Month
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-executive-boards-qe-proposal-calls-for-roughly-50-billion-in-bond-buys-per-month-1421851130

Maybe it's time to change the thread title to what is really going on "Fiat collapsing. Bitcoin UP"

[1714197660]

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[cypherdoc]

EU proposal for printing €50B/month (or €0.6T/year).

ECB Executive Board’s QE Proposal Calls for Roughly €50 Billion in Bond Buys Per Month
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-executive-boards-qe-proposal-calls-for-roughly-50-billion-in-bond-buys-per-month-1421851130

Maybe it's time to change the thread title to what is really going on "Fiat collapsing. Bitcoin UP"

actually, i'm quite pissed that i missed the chance to re-short gold @ 1307 this morning. it came right up to my target of several months ago. got a limit order up right now that i hope gets hit. c'mon gold, c'mon.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

I suppose they see no point in sinking more money in half-measures. Especially when a thorough solution is in sight.

next failure coming; ApplePay.

Apple is not Amazon ...  more plausible would be for their engineers to take care of the ApplePay UI with bitcoin under the hood. Any problems with that?

[cypherdoc]

I suppose they see no point in sinking more money in half-measures. Especially when a thorough solution is in sight.

next failure coming; ApplePay.

Apple is not Amazon ...  more plausible would be for their engineers to take care of the ApplePay UI with bitcoin under the hood. Any problems with that?

no, theoretically not.  shouldn't be too complicated at all.

the question, will they do that, especially before they scrap the project.  who knows.

[tvbcof]

...

It sounds like you want digital gold. Not the superclass to gold that bitcoin represents, but more of a direct electronic clone.

I had not thought of it that way, but I like it!  It fits quite well in a lot of ways.

I kinda don't think that works longrun for the same reasons I don't think gold works longrun anymore: neither would be *actually* useful day-to-day. So you're insuring for the same semi-apocalypse scenario. Which is fine if that's your thing; let's just be clear on how fat a slice of the long-tail you're hedging: thin.

To be clear, I find it unlikely that such a thing, so untied from everyday economic use demand, can last as a desirable value store. Gold developed the way it did *out of* exchange utility. The last link (and government-enforced at that) to that was severed in 1971 and gold is now mainly flying on historical momentum. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but that's the thesis.

I think a meaningful friction-of-exchange-reducing economic link is likely critical for a non-industrial-use commodity to retain longterm value.

To me there is little functional difference be between being backed by something powerful (fiat-laws, gold-pyhsics, BTC-math) and using the solid item itself as backing.  Hence my focus on 'reserve currency'.  Something like sidechains or [gold|fiat]-backed USD can provide all the ornamentals and don't need to be bothered with the heavy lifting of securing the base value.

So, I don't buy the contention that something needs to be 'useful day-to-day' to have long term value.  Indeed I see the opposite as being more true.

I freely admit that I am more of a Keynsian than not.  Central planning and manipulation can provide longer stretches of better performance for more people.  But I think that any honest Keynsians will admit that their games are cyclic and periodic resets are necessary.  Usually marked by devolution into blatant cronyism and totalitarian nightmare as the fiat backing (the justice system) fails.  My interest in Bitcoin (and gold) are for their utility value at such relatively rare junctures.  While we wait, I do believe that the blooming of opportunities afforded by the flexibility of sidechain developments could do good things for a lot of groups, and could materially effect the outcome of a Keynsian reset.  Hopefully in a good way.

[justusranvier]

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/01/21/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-1-scarcity/

[Zarathustra]

I freely admit that I am more of a Keynsian than not.  Central planning and manipulation can provide longer stretches of better performance for more people. 

Here in Switzerland we have less central planning but 'longer stretches of better performance for more people'.

[Wekkel]

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/01/21/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-1-scarcity/

Contains a precious quote:

Bitcoin needs millions, and then billions, of users who demand better money. The demand for Bitcoin must be strong enough that they will break the law if that’s what it takes to obtain it.

[Melbustus]

...
I freely admit that I am more of a Keynsian than not.  Central planning and manipulation can provide longer stretches of better performance for more people.  But I think that any honest Keynsians will admit that their games are cyclic and periodic resets are necessary.  Usually marked by devolution into blatant cronyism and totalitarian nightmare as the fiat backing (the justice system) fails. 
...

Yeah, this is what's missed in a lot of Keynsian vs Austrian discussions. The counter-cyclical math *does* work, it's just that it's impossible for humanity to actually implement without the devolution you mention; thus, an "honest money" ends up being better in practice, longrun.

A misappreciation for the human factor is what draws so many genuinely bright minds to central planning. The math, they think, is elegant and works, so that's that. The realities of moral hazard and political incentives (literally) do not entire the equation.


Anyways...will address the rest of your comment when I have more time.

[Melbustus]

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/01/21/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-1-scarcity/

Contains a precious quote:

Bitcoin needs millions, and then billions, of users who demand better money. The demand for Bitcoin must be strong enough that they will break the law if that’s what it takes to obtain it.

Lots of good quotes, but I liked:

A block size limit that is low enough to have a real affect on actual block sizes is the ultimate blacklist.

and

The Bitcoin network, like any other product or service in the economy, should change its production capability to respond to supply and demand.

[solex]

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/01/21/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-1-scarcity/

Great stuff.

"Since it’s inception, Bitcoin has been operating as if there was no block size limit at all.
If this limit is kept in place, then suddenly Bitcoin will be in uncharted economic territory."

Further, since Core Dev is totally focused on making safe changes and testing as much as possible, allowing the block limit to be hit is the antithesis of their development approach. Once the limit is hit the event becomes the equivalent of foisting a massive untested change onto the entire network at once. The height of lunacy.

[cypherdoc]

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/01/21/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-1-scarcity/

Contains a precious quote:

Bitcoin needs millions, and then billions, of users who demand better money. The demand for Bitcoin must be strong enough that they will break the law if that’s what it takes to obtain it.

my favorite too

[tvbcof]

I freely admit that I am more of a Keynsian than not.  Central planning and manipulation can provide longer stretches of better performance for more people. 

Here in Switzerland we have less central planning but 'longer stretches of better performance for more people'.

'less' is just as much a centrally planned decision as anything, and often the best one.  Particularly if one positions themselves to exploit a vacuum created by the rest of the world.  Some Caribbean nations do the same thing I believe.  But when the vacuum vanishes...

[Zarathustra]

I freely admit that I am more of a Keynsian than not.  Central planning and manipulation can provide longer stretches of better performance for more people. 

Here in Switzerland we have less central planning but 'longer stretches of better performance for more people'.

'less' is just as much a centrally planned decision as anything, and often the best one.  Particularly if one positions themselves to exploit a vacuum created by the rest of the world.  Some Caribbean nations do the same thing I believe.  But when the vacuum vanishes...

No, less is not just as much, and Switzerland is not in the same position as 'some caribbean nations'. Switzerland is a high tech export machine with a huge current account surplus.

[tvbcof]

I freely admit that I am more of a Keynsian than not.  Central planning and manipulation can provide longer stretches of better performance for more people. 

Here in Switzerland we have less central planning but 'longer stretches of better performance for more people'.

'less' is just as much a centrally planned decision as anything, and often the best one.  Particularly if one positions themselves to exploit a vacuum created by the rest of the world.  Some Caribbean nations do the same thing I believe.  But when the vacuum vanishes...

No, less is not just as much, and Switzerland is not in the same position as 'some caribbean nations'. Switzerland is a high tech export machine with a huge current account surplus.

I'd say Switzerland achieve 'longer stretches of better performance for more people' mainly by being weaselly, exploitative, and conniving on the international stage (aka, neutral.)  Sweden even worse by being pathetic lick-spittle whenever it's handy.  I'm glad my relatives several generations ago hauled ass out of both of those places even if it has resulted in some periodic hardships for their descendants.

[zanzibar]

I blacked out, what the hell happened!

[explorer]

I blacked out, what the hell happened!

The block size issue was resolved and implemented seamlessly.  It was boring, don't worry.

[solex]

I blacked out, what the hell happened!

The block size issue was resolved and implemented seamlessly.  It was boring, don't worry.

Yippee! Next stop, the moon.

[Zarathustra]

I freely admit that I am more of a Keynsian than not.  Central planning and manipulation can provide longer stretches of better performance for more people.  

Here in Switzerland we have less central planning but 'longer stretches of better performance for more people'.

'less' is just as much a centrally planned decision as anything, and often the best one.  Particularly if one positions themselves to exploit a vacuum created by the rest of the world.  Some Caribbean nations do the same thing I believe.  But when the vacuum vanishes...

No, less is not just as much, and Switzerland is not in the same position as 'some caribbean nations'. Switzerland is a high tech export machine with a huge current account surplus.

I'd say Switzerland achieve 'longer stretches of better performance for more people' mainly by being weaselly, exploitative, and conniving on the international stage (aka, neutral.)  Sweden even worse by being pathetic lick-spittle whenever it's handy.  I'm glad my relatives several generations ago hauled ass out of both of those places even if it has resulted in some periodic hardships for their descendants.

Exploiting the planet and the creature. That's Civilization (patriarchy) from the very beginning (10'000 years ago). At least in Switzerland we (the people) are able to reverse any decision of the state terrorists (politicians). This is not as good as anarchy, but better than the feudalism in the rest of the civilized world.

[picolo]

I blacked out, what the hell happened!

Gold is up and Bitcoin has been down but is recovering.