Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[hdbuck]

I find it easier to think of trust backing a currency. Trust of the receiver that the next person will accept the currency for the same value.

If that trust is gone, so is the currency.

Other elements (government, armies) are just derivatives of this main principle.

For 5 years existence, I think 'trust' in Bitcoin is remarkable. No government, no army but it still goes. Time to re-evaluate old dogmas, I would say.

Wise words.

However, if we're dealing in a situation where the dollar collapses, it is a completely different ballgame and unchartered territory.  Bitcoin having its value directly tied to the dollar right now presents a faster medium for companies to convert over to fiat.  They are not holding.  

Now eliminate fiat from the equation completely.  How much 'faith' would these companies have in actually holding/having to deal with other companies to buy/sell/trade goods using this technology themselves? My guess is nowhere close to the same amount.  

Unless some kind of insurance system is implemented, it's basically the wild wild west for traders and everyday transactions outside of friends and family.

acknowledging >$5k per BTC (ie alleged next 'bubble' and beyond) is the same as having the dollar collapsing, in both value and utility.
I dont see it happening any time soon tho, but things surely seems to move fast in the financial world.

[1714200714]

1714200714

[1714200714]

1714200714

[1714200714]

1714200714

[1714200714]

1714200714

[1714200714]

1714200714

[cypherdoc]

I find it easier to think of trust backing a currency. Trust of the receiver that the next person will accept the currency for the same value.

If that trust is gone, so is the currency.

Other elements (government, armies) are just derivatives of this main principle.

For 5 years existence, I think 'trust' in Bitcoin is remarkable. No government, no army but it still goes. Time to re-evaluate old dogmas, I would say.

Wise words.

However, if we're dealing in a situation where the dollar collapses, it is a completely different ballgame and unchartered territory.  Bitcoin having its value directly tied to the dollar right now presents a faster medium for companies to convert over to fiat.  They are not holding. 

Now eliminate fiat from the equation completely.  How much 'faith' would these companies have in actually holding/having to deal with other companies to buy/sell/trade goods using this technology themselves? My guess is nowhere close to the same amount. 

Unless some kind of insurance system is implemented, it's basically the wild wild west for traders and everyday transactions outside of friends and family.

Many companies/businesses are holding back some coin.  Probably more than you think. Especially at these prices after such a  large pull  back in price. They are rightly anticipating a turn around.

If Bitcoin lacks the confidence and backing  you claim it does,  why isn't it languishing at a price less than dollar  parity, ie, <$1.00?   All other worthless fiat  currencies are in this range, why not bitcoin?

[flipstyle]

I find it easier to think of trust backing a currency. Trust of the receiver that the next person will accept the currency for the same value.

If that trust is gone, so is the currency.

Other elements (government, armies) are just derivatives of this main principle.

For 5 years existence, I think 'trust' in Bitcoin is remarkable. No government, no army but it still goes. Time to re-evaluate old dogmas, I would say.

Wise words.

However, if we're dealing in a situation where the dollar collapses, it is a completely different ballgame and unchartered territory.  Bitcoin having its value directly tied to the dollar right now presents a faster medium for companies to convert over to fiat.  They are not holding. 

Now eliminate fiat from the equation completely.  How much 'faith' would these companies have in actually holding/having to deal with other companies to buy/sell/trade goods using this technology themselves? My guess is nowhere close to the same amount. 

Unless some kind of insurance system is implemented, it's basically the wild wild west for traders and everyday transactions outside of friends and family.

Many companies/businesses are holding back some coin.  Probably more than you think. Especially at these prices after such a  large pull  back in price. They are rightly anticipating a turn around.

If Bitcoin lacks the confidence and backing  you claim it does,  why isn't it languishing at a price less than dollar  parity, ie, <$1.00?   All other worthless fiat  currencies are in this range, why not bitcoin?

Care to cite some sources on which companies are holding back bitcoin and at what percentages?   I'm not talking about individual large scale personal investors, I'm talking about companies.


Sorry, you kind of lost me on the last point.   You can't seriously be comparing the mintage of bitcoin to that of other national currencies, are you? They are nowhere in the same realm, though certainly a day where the btc market falls under the 20 million dollar market cap is not entirely out of the range of possibility.  It was only around 3 years ago when this was the case.

[cbeast]

There was once discussion about an exodus plan if a superior technology existed that was not fork-able.  It would maintain a centralized legacy support for cold storage. Bitcoins would be converted proportionally as a one-way transaction. While I commend altcoin developers, some of them have been abusing the community with proof of burn IPOs. Not many people can afford to just dump bitcoins for something that has no value. Yeah free market bla bla, but most of them are scams. Is anyone working on a method to clone one of these altcoins and convert bitcoin outputs to the new system? This would go a long way toward comforting folks that don't have confidence that Bitcoin can live up to its promise. Now I know this sounds like Side Chains. It is because I believe this is the natural consequence of such an experiment. There can be only one.

[cypherdoc]

I find it easier to think of trust backing a currency. Trust of the receiver that the next person will accept the currency for the same value.

If that trust is gone, so is the currency.

Other elements (government, armies) are just derivatives of this main principle.

For 5 years existence, I think 'trust' in Bitcoin is remarkable. No government, no army but it still goes. Time to re-evaluate old dogmas, I would say.

Wise words.

However, if we're dealing in a situation where the dollar collapses, it is a completely different ballgame and unchartered territory.  Bitcoin having its value directly tied to the dollar right now presents a faster medium for companies to convert over to fiat.  They are not holding. 

Now eliminate fiat from the equation completely.  How much 'faith' would these companies have in actually holding/having to deal with other companies to buy/sell/trade goods using this technology themselves? My guess is nowhere close to the same amount. 

Unless some kind of insurance system is implemented, it's basically the wild wild west for traders and everyday transactions outside of friends and family.

Many companies/businesses are holding back some coin.  Probably more than you think. Especially at these prices after such a  large pull  back in price. They are rightly anticipating a turn around.

If Bitcoin lacks the confidence and backing  you claim it does,  why isn't it languishing at a price less than dollar  parity, ie, <$1.00?   All other worthless fiat  currencies are in this range, why not bitcoin?

Overstock 10%.

Also http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2oypbo/bitpay_employee_here_around_50_of_our_merchants/

You made my point.  Bitcoin is different than other fiat currencies which is why it's had such superior price performance in such a short time.

[flipstyle]

I find it easier to think of trust backing a currency. Trust of the receiver that the next person will accept the currency for the same value.

If that trust is gone, so is the currency.

Other elements (government, armies) are just derivatives of this main principle.

For 5 years existence, I think 'trust' in Bitcoin is remarkable. No government, no army but it still goes. Time to re-evaluate old dogmas, I would say.

Wise words.

However, if we're dealing in a situation where the dollar collapses, it is a completely different ballgame and unchartered territory.  Bitcoin having its value directly tied to the dollar right now presents a faster medium for companies to convert over to fiat.  They are not holding.  

Now eliminate fiat from the equation completely.  How much 'faith' would these companies have in actually holding/having to deal with other companies to buy/sell/trade goods using this technology themselves? My guess is nowhere close to the same amount.  

Unless some kind of insurance system is implemented, it's basically the wild wild west for traders and everyday transactions outside of friends and family.

Many companies/businesses are holding back some coin.  Probably more than you think. Especially at these prices after such a  large pull  back in price. They are rightly anticipating a turn around.

If Bitcoin lacks the confidence and backing  you claim it does,  why isn't it languishing at a price less than dollar  parity, ie, <$1.00?   All other worthless fiat  currencies are in this range, why not bitcoin?

Overstock 10%.

Also http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2oypbo/bitpay_employee_here_around_50_of_our_merchants/

You made my point.  Bitcoin is different than other fiat currencies which is why it's had such superior price performance in such a short time.

Mr. Byrne revealed that bitcoin purchases amount to under 0.1 percent of total transactions made on the site, but added that the company is keeping 10 percent of their bitcoin income in its digital form — converting the other 90 percent to fiat via their connection with Coinbase.


All about context.  10 percent of 0.1 percent is a basically negligible amount for them, which is why they're doing it.  If it goes to 0, it's a tax writeoff.  If it takes off to the moon, then their negligible risk pays off fairly handsomely and they can give some high rank employees a christmas bonus.

But I'd be happy to hear of more than one example, and for something that's actually substantial.  I'm not convinced any company out there is really sticking their tails out and hoarding this stuff long term.  Unless they absolutely love playing russian roulette with a loaded gun.

[smooth]

There was once discussion about an exodus plan if a superior technology existed that was not fork-able.  It would maintain a centralized legacy support for cold storage. Bitcoins would be converted proportionally as a one-way transaction. While I commend altcoin developers, some of them have been abusing the community with proof of burn IPOs. Not many people can afford to just dump bitcoins for something that has no value. Yeah free market bla bla, but most of them are scams. Is anyone working on a method to clone one of these altcoins and convert bitcoin outputs to the new system? This would go a long way toward comforting folks that don't have confidence that Bitcoin can live up to its promise. Now I know this sounds like Side Chains. It is because I believe this is the natural consequence of such an experiment. There can be only one.

It was discussed somewhat extensively here, including some details about how claims would be represented and processed: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563972.0

The last post on that thread reports someone who had implemented it as a proof of concept.

[cbeast]

All about context.  10 percent of 0.1 percent is a basically negligible amount for them, which is why they're doing it.  If it goes to 0, it's a tax writeoff.  If it takes off to the moon, then their negligible risk pays off fairly handsomely and they can give some high rank employees a christmas bonus.

If all business adopted that approach, Bitcoin would be astronomical.

[justusranvier]

... unless there is no intention to cover those shorts, i.e. the coins are gone and at some point int he future when the heat comes on the exchange just declares force majeur.

http://www.coindesk.com/70-bitcoin-scams-shut-new-york-law-enforcement/

[cypherdoc]

yeah baby.  time for a Bitcoin turnaround:

[cypherdoc]

i'm up 8.3% already:

[NewLiberty]

I find it easier to think of trust backing a currency. Trust of the receiver that the next person will accept the currency for the same value.

If that trust is gone, so is the currency.

Other elements (government, armies) are just derivatives of this main principle.

For 5 years existence, I think 'trust' in Bitcoin is remarkable. No government, no army but it still goes. Time to re-evaluate old dogmas, I would say.

Wise words.

However, if we're dealing in a situation where the dollar collapses, it is a completely different ballgame and unchartered territory.  Bitcoin having its value directly tied to the dollar right now presents a faster medium for companies to convert over to fiat.  They are not holding.  

Now eliminate fiat from the equation completely.  How much 'faith' would these companies have in actually holding/having to deal with other companies to buy/sell/trade goods using this technology themselves? My guess is nowhere close to the same amount.  

Unless some kind of insurance system is implemented, it's basically the wild wild west for traders and everyday transactions outside of friends and family.

Many companies/businesses are holding back some coin.  Probably more than you think. Especially at these prices after such a  large pull  back in price. They are rightly anticipating a turn around.

If Bitcoin lacks the confidence and backing  you claim it does,  why isn't it languishing at a price less than dollar  parity, ie, <$1.00?   All other worthless fiat  currencies are in this range, why not bitcoin?

Overstock 10%.

Also http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2oypbo/bitpay_employee_here_around_50_of_our_merchants/

You made my point.  Bitcoin is different than other fiat currencies which is why it's had such superior price performance in such a short time.

Mr. Byrne revealed that bitcoin purchases amount to under 0.1 percent of total transactions made on the site, but added that the company is keeping 10 percent of their bitcoin income in its digital form — converting the other 90 percent to fiat via their connection with Coinbase.


All about context.  10 percent of 0.1 percent is a basically negligible amount for them, which is why they're doing it.  If it goes to 0, it's a tax writeoff.  If it takes off to the moon, then their negligible risk pays off fairly handsomely and they can give some high rank employees a christmas bonus.

But I'd be happy to hear of more than one example, and for something that's actually substantial.  I'm not convinced any company out there is really sticking their tails out and hoarding this stuff long term.  Unless they absolutely love playing russian roulette with a loaded gun.

Overstock also offers the option to the employees to be paid in bitcoin.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/overstockcom-offers-employees-all-bitcoin-paychecks-2015-01-09

This is so far the largest company to make the pivot to enable full bitcoin economic adoption.  It seeks suppliers that take bitcoin, it sells for bitcoin and pays salary in bitcoin.  All voluntarily.

[cypherdoc]

this is trouble; for the Europeans and major lenders of Greek debt:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/alexis-tsipras-open-letter-germany-what-you-were-never-told-about-greece

note how some leaders actually think like we think.

[Bagatell]

this is trouble; for the Europeans and major lenders of Greek debt:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/alexis-tsipras-open-letter-germany-what-you-were-never-told-about-greece

note how some leaders actually think like we think.

Goes nicely with this

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/putins-unexpected-victory-germany-furious-greece-now-russian-sanctions-veto

[cypherdoc]

this is trouble; for the Europeans and major lenders of Greek debt:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/alexis-tsipras-open-letter-germany-what-you-were-never-told-about-greece

note how some leaders actually think like we think.

Goes nicely with this

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/putins-unexpected-victory-germany-furious-greece-now-russian-sanctions-veto

the sweet smell of debt deflation is upon us.  and gold is about to be taken out for the next whuppin.

[Peter R]

There was once discussion about an exodus plan if a superior technology existed that was not fork-able.  It would maintain a centralized legacy support for cold storage. Bitcoins would be converted proportionally as a one-way transaction. While I commend altcoin developers, some of them have been abusing the community with proof of burn IPOs. Not many people can afford to just dump bitcoins for something that has no value. Yeah free market bla bla, but most of them are scams. Is anyone working on a method to clone one of these altcoins and convert bitcoin outputs to the new system? This would go a long way toward comforting folks that don't have confidence that Bitcoin can live up to its promise. Now I know this sounds like Side Chains. It is because I believe this is the natural consequence of such an experiment. There can be only one.

It was discussed somewhat extensively here, including some details about how claims would be represented and processed: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563972.0

The last post on that thread reports someone who had implemented it as a proof of concept.

Thanks for reference to Joseph Krug's & Jack Peterson's proof-of-concept of the spinoff / snapshot idea.  They've made a fair bit of progress! (Although I wish they had used your Merkle-branch claim proof idea however to reduce the size of the genesis block).

http://augur.link/sidecoin.pdf

I had somewhat lost interest in spinoffs as a practical technology with the excitement around sidechains.  But perhaps there's still value in them.  Haha I'd really love to see Aethereum become a reality (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563925.0).

[zanzibar]

Personally I think the USD and Bitcoin can thrive side by side.  I don't see the demise of Fiat necessary whatsoever for the success of BTC.  To me, it's simple, BTC makes Fiat more efficient on many levels, it's the opposite of Gold in that way.  Changetip is a one example of this.  On the flip side, it's also a great store of value which makes is much like Gold.  I can carry $1Mil in BTC with me across a border in my pocket, money that I have 100% control over.

[cypherdoc]

Wtf is this? Listen to this interview of Tim Swanson. At 53 min,  he says he talked to gmax about "Smart property" whereby mining manufacturers, with the assistance of core devs (sounds like Blockstream core devs)  would build in miner "kill switches" in the event they were found to be attacking SC's. THAT is a stupid, ridiculous, un-open source idea. Supposedly, they are keeping it hush hush.

https://epicenterbitcoin.com/

[semaforo]

Yes, I think the likely scenario is that, as the global slow-down continues, money will flow to the dollar first since it is perceived by many as the safest asset.

Then precious metals and housing secondly, as they will always maintain 'some' intrinsic value.  

Trust me, in a true SHTF scenario, NOBODY is going to want or care for bitcoin.  They're going to want food, shelter, clothing, and nationally recognized currency that will be accepted anywhere with historical usage that extends back thousands of years: silver and gold.

Besides the fact that I feel there is no such thing as "intrinsic" value (all values are subjective) I see the capital flowing this way:

weaker currencies --> perceived stronger currencies (U.S. Dollar) --> bitcoin

I don't see metals as useful a currency as bitcoin but they will, of course, appreciate against a collapsing dollar - just not as much as bitcoin in my opinion. Bitcoin could be the safety valve that preserves some semblance of a global economy and a somewhat civilized society since it will allow the continued trade across distance (metals not so much).

  What's that law about good money chasing out bad or something like that? I never really understood it...

[jaredboice]

Yes, I think the likely scenario is that, as the global slow-down continues, money will flow to the dollar first since it is perceived by many as the safest asset.

Then precious metals and housing secondly, as they will always maintain 'some' intrinsic value.  

Trust me, in a true SHTF scenario, NOBODY is going to want or care for bitcoin.  They're going to want food, shelter, clothing, and nationally recognized currency that will be accepted anywhere with historical usage that extends back thousands of years: silver and gold.

Besides the fact that I feel there is no such thing as "intrinsic" value (all values are subjective) I see the capital flowing this way:

weaker currencies --> perceived stronger currencies (U.S. Dollar) --> bitcoin

I don't see metals as useful a currency as bitcoin but they will, of course, appreciate against a collapsing dollar - just not as much as bitcoin in my opinion. Bitcoin could be the safety valve that preserves some semblance of a global economy and a somewhat civilized society since it will allow the continued trade across distance (metals not so much).

  What's that law about good money chasing out bad or something like that? I never really understood it...

Gresham's Law.  It essentially says that if you have multiple forms of money, you're going to save the form of money you think is going to appreciate and you're going to spend everything else first. Pretty much it's common sense.