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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1901872 times)
sgbett
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January 15, 2015, 03:55:15 PM
 #20201

im not sure what it means, and I don't have a nice chart, but I think this belongs in here!

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30829917

edit: I made a handy infographic, for simple folks like me.



The Swiss Franc is a proxy for gold.  Unpegging it from the Euro unleashes chaos.  Not quite a black swan, but still a perturbation in the currency wars.

Does that make me a stacker by proxy? I have the mighty sum of 35.30CHF! Who knows what it will be worth tomorrow Wink

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January 15, 2015, 05:23:48 PM
 #20202

Wow I knew it was coming... the average joe's are not allowed to win and this proves the theory of rigged markets again and again. After seeing USDJPY take off because BOJ said 80 was the floor... SNB said 1.2 was the floor so every little joe with a forex account had long positions... ofcourse hedged against market manipulators which are interested in squeezing these longs and making money. Add them all up and there was alot of profit to make if the floor broke... and the longer it took the more profit there was. I bet alot of oversized bets and people averaging in as it went lower trying to break even but 1.2 -> 0.75 thats what 5000 pips? I dont think retail forex accounts even off low enough leverage to not have that margin your account even with the smallest lot trade. Ofcourse it was going to break... the market was against SNB... they needed to devalue like BOJ did and now JPY is on its way to becoming worthless instead of too strong.

This is another nail in the coffin for currencies from central banks. Might trigger a massive influx of capital to crypto..

Doc this is why my views of the market turn out right most of the time.. its simply doing the opposite, i've seen this movie too many times... in other words.. if you're long so are others and that means im short.

Plus another thing about this is that most of these moves have hidden agenda's...the guy in control of the policy "knows" about the huge payoff if he put in a massive short position right before calling out the peg has failed... in fact when he set the peg the guys wife had a huge long position and made hundreds of millions of $ in profit from naked shorts who lost their shirts! I'm sure him and his family/friends made money as well as any other big whale who was playing contrarian. Policies which change the value of a currency shouldn't be allowed to happen like this, should be based on a vote and consensus so EVERYONE KNOWS ITS COMING, and not just the select few ofcourse which won't even be investigated.

Just the fact that pegs are put in place and not part of a consensus is what brought me here... and makes me think that long term centrally backed and controlled currencies are prehistoric and a thing that our grandkids will read about in history books about how stupid people were back in the day.

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cypherdoc
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January 15, 2015, 05:31:45 PM
 #20203

DRR double short Euro:

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January 15, 2015, 05:33:21 PM
 #20204

ouch!

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January 15, 2015, 05:36:17 PM
 #20205

my favorite, EUR/CHF:

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January 15, 2015, 06:18:56 PM
 #20206

So the world's safe haven currency (CHF) just had a 30% move in minutes.  The volatility argument against bitcoin just flew out the window.

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January 15, 2015, 06:23:37 PM
 #20207

So the world's safe haven currency (CHF) just had a 30% move in minutes.  The volatility argument against bitcoin just flew out the window.

As of today it did.

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Wekkel
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January 15, 2015, 06:23:47 PM
 #20208

So the world's safe haven currency (CHF) just had a 30% move in minutes.  The volatility argument against bitcoin just flew out the window.

If the 'manipulator' stops, that's what you get.

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January 15, 2015, 06:32:28 PM
 #20209

Arguments are pointless, minion. So are laws. Shut up and conform.
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January 15, 2015, 06:39:23 PM
 #20210


True, but don't underestimate Gavin either despite punks like tvbcof criticizing him all the time. He has tremendous political power and many people including myself feel he's been the perfect guy to lead us to where we are now. No one's perfect but he's been great.

Plus, I'll take Sarotoubi anyday if that is what it takes to get us to the next level which it clearly might be: micro tx's.

Quoted for posterity.  Gems like this only come along so often, and are the kinds of things that a deeply self-concious guy like cypherdoc is prone to delete.  He assumes that everyone is as confused and mentally overloaded as he is won't notice such an action.


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January 15, 2015, 08:11:03 PM
 #20211

So the world's safe haven currency (CHF) just had a 30% move in minutes.  The volatility argument against bitcoin just flew out the window.

If the 'manipulator' stops, that's what you get.

The real problem for the SNB now is that in order to create the peg in the first place and hold the CNF at an artificially depressed value (compared to market conditions) the SNB had to purchase significant EUR holdings in order to fight market demand.

Now the SNB has to unwind these EUR holdings, but to do so will exacerbate the original condition they were trying to hold back, i.e. they now have to unwind and sell those EUR holdings which will cause further upward pressure on the CNF.

This is how all of what I'd call "artificial pegs" end. Not only do they fail, but after they fail all the manipulation now goes in the opposite direction. Same is true for other current currency manipulations (i.e. China).

The only method a peg can work is if there is a "fixed" quantity controlled on both sides of the peg and the market can trade back and forth across that freely. A good example was the US gold standard that lasted for a period of time. In it the US fixed an amount of gold per dollar, to do so it had to maintain the gold:dollar reserve ratio by only issuing dollars in relation to the gold it held. i.e. to release a new dollar required acquiring the same amount of gold.

Inevitably governments fail at this (such as FDR's massive default), but it is only because governments always end up releasing more dollars than they have reserves for because it is free and easy, but market reality always catches up. The other way pegs fail is when an entity does not control the supply on both sides.

A peg where both sides are fixed in quantity or only go up/down in fixed relation to each other can work.
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January 15, 2015, 08:48:34 PM
 #20212

to the SC proponents who insist that the 2wp will equalize fiat exchange prices across SC's thru arbitrage.

just look at the $16ish spread btwn Bitfinex and the Chinese exchanges.  and this is with open, relatively equally liquid exchanges that DON'T have a 2 day lock up.  just imagine how volatile and disparate an illiquid, insecure SC can get with manipulation.

Sidechains are pegged you fucking imbecile.  Ignoring minor and optional implementation details, there is and can be no 'spread'.

You simply have no coherent structural overview of...well...anything that I can see and very little ability to formulate or even learn one.  You managed to at least imagine that grok a couple of things and try to map them on to every new thing you see.  No wonder you lost 75% of your money last year...unless you are telling people to do one thing (dump everything and run to Bitcoin) and doing another which is possible.

Sidechains are not some 10,000th get-rich-quick platform for you to try to trade straight across for USD.  Use native Bitcoin for that.


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January 15, 2015, 10:17:25 PM
 #20213

to the SC proponents who insist that the 2wp will equalize fiat exchange prices across SC's thru arbitrage.

just look at the $16ish spread btwn Bitfinex and the Chinese exchanges.  and this is with open, relatively equally liquid exchanges that DON'T have a 2 day lock up.  just imagine how volatile and disparate an illiquid, insecure SC can get with manipulation.

Sidechains are pegged you fucking imbecile.  Ignoring minor and optional implementation details, there is and can be no 'spread'.

You simply have no coherent structural overview of...well...anything that I can see and very little ability to formulate or even learn one.  You managed to at least imagine that grok a couple of things and try to map them on to every new thing you see.  No wonder you lost 75% of your money last year...unless you are telling people to do one thing (dump everything and run to Bitcoin) and doing another which is possible.

Sidechains are not some 10,000th get-rich-quick platform for you to try to trade straight across for USD.  Use native Bitcoin for that.


You missing the point the Bitcoin on those two exchanges are all backed by the one blockchain. The asset is Bitcoin and the spread is significant. Bitcoin is liquid in that you don't have to wait days before you can arb. Just wait untill the market gets panicky and that 2 day confirm is elongated by hostile miners.

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sgbett
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January 15, 2015, 10:17:50 PM
 #20214

So the world's safe haven currency (CHF) just had a 30% move in minutes.  The volatility argument against bitcoin just flew out the window.

This is a minor thing, but I think CHF is the one that kept its price. It was all the others that lost 30% to it Wink

(Also thanks for the charts cypher, the pictures say it far better)

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January 15, 2015, 10:26:48 PM
 #20215

Cypher (or someone who feels like they can properly explain it): can you please ELI5 why sidechains will break the incentive mechanism? I haven't been able to follow this thread as well as I used to.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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January 15, 2015, 10:42:51 PM
 #20216

Cypher (or someone who feels like they can properly explain it): can you please ELI5 why sidechains will break the incentive mechanism? I haven't been able to follow this thread as well as I used to.

I think (cypher can correct me) its because taking transactions off (main)chain reduces fee-based income for miners. When the block reward dwindles after several halving that is their only incentive to mine. If they have no incentive, then they will not mine, the network will become more vulnerable.

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January 15, 2015, 11:07:03 PM
 #20217

Cypher (or someone who feels like they can properly explain it): can you please ELI5 why sidechains will break the incentive mechanism? I haven't been able to follow this thread as well as I used to.

I think (cypher can correct me) its because taking transactions off (main)chain reduces fee-based income for miners. When the block reward dwindles after several halving that is their only incentive to mine. If they have no incentive, then they will not mine, the network will become more vulnerable.

eh ok, there must be some way to count off chain transactions and then credit the miners appropriately. I'm not saying this would be a trivial change, but this scenario is probably 10 years away minimum and I find it fairly difficult to believe that there is no way to get around this between now and then.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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January 15, 2015, 11:20:37 PM
 #20218

Cypher (or someone who feels like they can properly explain it): can you please ELI5 why sidechains will break the incentive mechanism? I haven't been able to follow this thread as well as I used to.

I think (cypher can correct me) its because taking transactions off (main)chain reduces fee-based income for miners. When the block reward dwindles after several halving that is their only incentive to mine. If they have no incentive, then they will not mine, the network will become more vulnerable.

eh ok, there must be some way to count off chain transactions and then credit the miners appropriately. I'm not saying this would be a trivial change, but this scenario is probably 10 years away minimum and I find it fairly difficult to believe that there is no way to get around this between now and then.

How does it work with merge-mining? If a main-chain has 90 petahash, then 2 sidechains are started, both merge-mined with the MC, do they all get 90PH security or 30PH each?

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January 15, 2015, 11:26:41 PM
 #20219

to the SC proponents who insist that the 2wp will equalize fiat exchange prices across SC's thru arbitrage.

just look at the $16ish spread btwn Bitfinex and the Chinese exchanges.  and this is with open, relatively equally liquid exchanges that DON'T have a 2 day lock up.  just imagine how volatile and disparate an illiquid, insecure SC can get with manipulation.

Sidechains are pegged you fucking imbecile.  Ignoring minor and optional implementation details, there is and can be no 'spread'.

You simply have no coherent structural overview of...well...anything that I can see and very little ability to formulate or even learn one.  You managed to at least imagine that grok a couple of things and try to map them on to every new thing you see.  No wonder you lost 75% of your money last year...unless you are telling people to do one thing (dump everything and run to Bitcoin) and doing another which is possible.

Sidechains are not some 10,000th get-rich-quick platform for you to try to trade straight across for USD.  Use native Bitcoin for that.


You missing the point the Bitcoin on those two exchanges are all backed by the one blockchain. The asset is Bitcoin and the spread is significant. Bitcoin is liquid in that you don't have to wait days before you can arb. Just wait untill the market gets panicky and that 2 day confirm is elongated by hostile miners.

Umm...I guess you have not used exchanges very much.  The difficulty with liquidity is nearly 100% on the fiat side and nearly 0% on the bitcoin side.  Until the fuckers steal one or both, that is.

Saying exchanges are 'backed' by anything is kind of a weird and meaningless thing to assert.  In fact the blockchain is out of the picture completely within a trading engine and back office.  Fiat the same.  Only on the interfaces do either one come into play.

There would be very little reason to try to use a sidecoin as some sort of a traded commodity because of the peg-and-backing nature of the solution.  If a guy wants to try to play off some peg exercise latency or whatever, it's a free world, but it would be tiny corner case for trogs to toss dimes on the street corner, and it would only be mildly interesting if Bitcoin experiences wild volatility.  One of the things that sidechains are likely to do would be to induce some buffering and stability into the ecosystem and dampen that out.  God knows that would be helpful.


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January 16, 2015, 01:16:06 AM
 #20220

to the SC proponents who insist that the 2wp will equalize fiat exchange prices across SC's thru arbitrage.

just look at the $16ish spread btwn Bitfinex and the Chinese exchanges.  and this is with open, relatively equally liquid exchanges that DON'T have a 2 day lock up.  just imagine how volatile and disparate an illiquid, insecure SC can get with manipulation.

Sidechains are pegged you fucking imbecile.  Ignoring minor and optional implementation details, there is and can be no 'spread'.

You simply have no coherent structural overview of...well...anything that I can see and very little ability to formulate or even learn one.  You managed to at least imagine that grok a couple of things and try to map them on to every new thing you see.  No wonder you lost 75% of your money last year...unless you are telling people to do one thing (dump everything and run to Bitcoin) and doing another which is possible.

Sidechains are not some 10,000th get-rich-quick platform for you to try to trade straight across for USD.  Use native Bitcoin for that.


You missing the point the Bitcoin on those two exchanges are all backed by the one blockchain. The asset is Bitcoin and the spread is significant. Bitcoin is liquid in that you don't have to wait days before you can arb. Just wait untill the market gets panicky and that 2 day confirm is elongated by hostile miners.

Umm...I guess you have not used exchanges very much.  The difficulty with liquidity is nearly 100% on the fiat side and nearly 0% on the bitcoin side.  Until the fuckers steal one or both, that is.

Saying exchanges are 'backed' by anything is kind of a weird and meaningless thing to assert.  In fact the blockchain is out of the picture completely within a trading engine and back office.  Fiat the same.  Only on the interfaces do either one come into play.

There would be very little reason to try to use a sidecoin as some sort of a traded commodity because of the peg-and-backing nature of the solution.  If a guy wants to try to play off some peg exercise latency or whatever, it's a free world, but it would be tiny corner case for trogs to toss dimes on the street corner, and it would only be mildly interesting if Bitcoin experiences wild volatility.  One of the things that sidechains are likely to do would be to induce some buffering and stability into the ecosystem and dampen that out.  God knows that would be helpful.

to the contrariety, I'm no day trader, but I use exchanges on many continents, I'll agree there are lots of risk and i also agree it's almost all fiat side given i maintain control of my keys up until the last minute, the point is sidechanes do nothing to improve that fiat in the banking system or held in reserve by an exchange. so if as you put it nearly 100% of the liquidity problem is fiat, (I'll add that's where most of the risk is too) sidechains do little to improve the fiat problem, and can actually cause lag on the liquidity of bitcoin, and with wild arbitrage one could get trapped during an attack, say something like the Silk Road sidechain coin receives intermittent attacks from miners controlled by bankers in the US, same shenanigans will happen between states with legalized sanctions.

i don't buy that bold above, there will be all types of sidechanes, they will have value and they will be traded, the idea is they are backed by Bitcoin with added value. 

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