[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

As long as we don't break that uptrend line at 190k-191k, I am not worried.

Do you get worried if we break it? 

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[TrueCryptonaire]

As long as we don't break that uptrend line at 190k-191k, I am not worried.

Do you get worried if we break it? 

The problem is if Monero starts to losing more investors due to bear market.
I do not consider it a good idea to dump it into bearish trend.
I am not planning to sell my position but I am afraid the others might do so and never touch it again.
However, it doesn't make a big difference since the price has been around these lows for quite some time.

[bitebits]

Is it possible using Shapeshift.io to donate, using BTC to XMR? Shapeshift does not seem to support the payment ID feature

Looks like it doesn't. Easiest thing to do would be to create a new MyMonero account and use it as an intermediary.

MyMonero.com is awesome. The lowest threshold signup I have ever seen: impressive!
Thanks Monero Core Team, Risto and Riccardo for providing such a service, for free, to the community: Donated a few!

[dEBRUYNE]

As long as we don't break that uptrend line at 190k-191k, I am not worried.

Do you get worried if we break it? 

Not really, but it would be nice if we could hold that and resume the uptrend :-P Also, I agree with TC this time.

[rpietila]

I may sound like beating the same drum day after day, but...

...have you considered the investment opportunities CK offers? For instance just now, there is a Town bond auction, and the bonds are paying 72% per real year, and they are denominated in XMR. Since the Town has the right to tax characters, the only way it could not pay is that it does not exist ie. the game has folded in the next 50 weeks. But the game has existed for ~48 weeks already!! What is the probability that it would cease existence now? In my opinion it is much less than the interest rate indicates.

The game gold is paying on average 0.5% per week, which is not bad, unless you compare it with the monster dividend payers ingame like RWWC that has paid about 10% dividend per week lately.

It is all cool to buy XMR and store it securely and do nothing and hope it miraculously goes up, but even much more fun is to play with it and be the vehicle that causes it to go up through real-world adoption!

[owm123]

As long as we don't break that uptrend line at 190k-191k, I am not worried.

Do you get worried if we break it?  

Why breaking it would be bad?

More general questions, to anyone who has experience with crypto market:

Do you have an estimate, based on your experience and expectations, how log can it take to see wider adaptation and usage for monero? For example, what if in  a year from now, the price of monero is same as now, and still no merchant accepts it. Would it be something to worry, or you expect it to be like this for 5 years or whatever?

In one of earlier posts, someone said that to have monero seriously considered by merchants, it needs to have a market cap of about 100 mils. How long can it take to reach it, or at least what is the optimistic time frame for this to happen? And what if its not going to happen at all?

[GingerAle]

As long as we don't break that uptrend line at 190k-191k, I am not worried.

Do you get worried if we break it?  

Why breaking it would be bad?

More general questions, to anyone who has experience with crypto market:

Do you have an estimate, based on your experience and expectations, how log can it take to see wider adaptation and usage for monero? For example, what if in  a year from now, the price of monero is same as now, and still no merchant accepts it. Would it be something to worry, or you expect it to be like this for 5 years or whatever?

In one of earlier posts, someone said that to have monero seriously considered by merchants, it needs to have a market cap of about 100 mils. How long can it take to reach it, or at least what is the optimistic time frame for this to happen? And what if its not going to happen at all?

Thats *not* that difficult of a task. A market cap of 100 million, at max primary emission (18 million coins), is approximately $5.50 per coin. There *is* price suppression going on right now, without a doubt. For what reason? unknown.

Crackpot theory #1: A brilliant mastermind has witnessed the problem with bitcoin and other currencies wherein initial distribution is viewed from the outside and inside with a weary eye. Thus, to create an extended history of low prices to provide evidence for fair distribution during early years, keep the price low.

Crackpot theory #2: Botnet / sysadmin operators are actively suppressing the price in order to prevent asic development and other mining interests. The more the price goes up, the more independent miners (GPU miners, solo PC miners, etc) start mining and decrease their share of the hashrate.

theory #3: some whales are keeping prices in a specific channel so they themselves can gobble up more coins.

How can we tell their is active price suppression? In my mind, I'm convinced by the relative size of walls. Current daily emission is 13k coins. Whats the biggest wall you've seen dance around on polo? 30k? 50k? Lets assume these market makers are cautious - they only want to risk x % of their total holdings... lets just put it at 10%.  So thats 300k they hold. Where's that theoretical monero distribution chart?

anyhoo, long story short - people holding large amounts of monero, for any reason, currently benefit from price suppression.

[smooth]

But the game has existed for ~48 weeks already!!

That is remarkable. Congratulations on the upcoming first birthday!

[rpietila]

But the game has existed for ~48 weeks already!!

That is remarkable. Congratulations on the upcoming first birthday!

When the game was 2 months old, the Long Bond auction (now item_id "LB1615") showed the interest rate of 300% for a realyear. Clearly that was realistic for a project just started, and projecting 6 times longer to the future than it had existed!

Now whether we settle at 72% or go to 60% or 50%, the next year there will be laugh anyway. Either to how easy it was to get free money, or how silly people were that it could be paid back.

But personally I am too busy in developing the game to have any thought that it might fail...

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like the funding of Monero development is not an issue.
I think this is a good news.
Looks like we might be able to fund even more talented developers - I hope some will see this and make a project that is a game changer.
In my opinion, one such could be a fiat exchange that is trading Monero-fiat-monero and no other alt coins not to mention bitcoin.
That's a major project and due to regulation issues it is probably an expensive venture and needs a lot of funding.

When there is a good fiat-Monero exchange with liquidity, then it is pretty easy to build merchant tools upon that as it is possible to clear the Moneros back to fiat.

Which country would be ideal for such venture when it comes to regulations (ie which country has the lowest risks of regulation)?

The other point is to create a marketing plan that is effective and attracts new users who are willing to trade anonymously.

[smoothie]

As long as we don't break that uptrend line at 190k-191k, I am not worried.

Do you get worried if we break it?  

Why breaking it would be bad?

More general questions, to anyone who has experience with crypto market:

Do you have an estimate, based on your experience and expectations, how log can it take to see wider adaptation and usage for monero? For example, what if in  a year from now, the price of monero is same as now, and still no merchant accepts it. Would it be something to worry, or you expect it to be like this for 5 years or whatever?

In one of earlier posts, someone said that to have monero seriously considered by merchants, it needs to have a market cap of about 100 mils. How long can it take to reach it, or at least what is the optimistic time frame for this to happen? And what if its not going to happen at all?

Thats *not* that difficult of a task. A market cap of 100 million, at max primary emission (18 million coins), is approximately $5.50 per coin. There *is* price suppression going on right now, without a doubt. For what reason? unknown.

Crackpot theory #1: A brilliant mastermind has witnessed the problem with bitcoin and other currencies wherein initial distribution is viewed from the outside and inside with a weary eye. Thus, to create an extended history of low prices to provide evidence for fair distribution during early years, keep the price low.

Crackpot theory #2: Botnet / sysadmin operators are actively suppressing the price in order to prevent asic development and other mining interests. The more the price goes up, the more independent miners (GPU miners, solo PC miners, etc) start mining and decrease their share of the hashrate.

theory #3: some whales are keeping prices in a specific channel so they themselves can gobble up more coins.

How can we tell their is active price suppression? In my mind, I'm convinced by the relative size of walls. Current daily emission is 13k coins. Whats the biggest wall you've seen dance around on polo? 30k? 50k? Lets assume these market makers are cautious - they only want to risk x % of their total holdings... lets just put it at 10%.  So thats 300k they hold. Where's that theoretical monero distribution chart?

anyhoo, long story short - people holding large amounts of monero, for any reason, currently benefit from price suppression.

Theory #4: Theories #1-#3 are all false and the free market is determining where we are in price currently.

[rpietila]

I think the low marketcap depends on:

- BTC maximalists abhor all altcoins
- No effort has been made to reach anyone except a subset of Bitcointalk
- In the subset, many who are not BTC maximalists, have bought in (but this is not many)
- Mathematically, it does not make sense to buy a too high percentage - if it flies, you are rich; if it doesn't, you lose less money
- Everyone who thinks this way, does not contribute much to the buying pressure
- Inflation is still high
- Price stickiness has made the "correct price" 0.002


To break the situation, we need new investor money, or a killer app which will absolutely clean the table... 

[Abiky]

To break the situation, we need new investor money, or a killer app which will absolutely clean the table... 

Exactly. A Monero app for both Android and iOS devices would be a great idea. Imagine the numbers of users that would became interested in XMR. This is something I would like to see 

[Anon136]

But the game has existed for ~48 weeks already!!

That is remarkable. Congratulations on the upcoming first birthday!

When the game was 2 months old, the Long Bond auction (now item_id "LB1615") showed the interest rate of 300% for a realyear. Clearly that was realistic for a project just started, and projecting 6 times longer to the future than it had existed!

Now whether we settle at 72% or go to 60% or 50%, the next year there will be laugh anyway. Either to how easy it was to get free money, or how silly people were that it could be paid back.

But personally I am too busy in developing the game to have any thought that it might fail...

Once it's at release version you have to get someone like totalbiscuit to review it. You can actually pay him to review it (ideally you wouldn't have to but as a contingency) but he is explicit about being paid when he does paid reviews and it doesn't appear to cause any bias. It would probably be well worth the investment if you are confident that he will be impressed, hes a harsh critic if he isn't. Exposure like that will be key to its success because a game like this is probably going to be quite dependent upon a strong network (of users, not like servers).

Another reason is that video game journalists are notoriously extreme radical left. And the left hates free markets. So you will be very unlikely to get publicity from them.

[Its About Sharing]

To break the situation, we need new investor money, or a killer app which will absolutely clean the table... 

Exactly. A Monero app for both Android and iOS devices would be a great idea. Imagine the numbers of users that would became interested in XMR. This is something I would like to see 

Something tells me rpietila was sort of front leaking something. ;-)

[smooth]

- No effort has been made to reach anyone except a subset of Bitcointalk

This is frankly not true. There are people going to meetups, giving talks, out there trying to encourage other services (especially privacy-focused services) and investors to take an interest, and undertaking other initiatives.

But once you go too far outside the existing cryptosphere (obviously the entirety of which is domainated by Bitcoin, not just Bitcointalk) then all of crypto becomes a very hard sell. People view it all as a ponzi scheme, dumb idea, money "not backed by anything", or all of the above (and other unlisted reasons to reject). Bitcoin having lost 80% of its value does not help. When Bitcoin was at or closer to it's highs, people outside the cryptosphere were starting to question their doubts (greed being a powerful motivator to self reflect). Now the price action just reinforces them.

[smooth]

To break the situation, we need new investor money, or a killer app which will absolutely clean the table... 

Exactly. A Monero app for both Android and iOS devices would be a great idea. Imagine the numbers of users that would became interested in XMR. This is something I would like to see 

Something tells me rpietila was sort of front leaking something. ;-)

I think he was talking about crypto kingdom, which does have a lot of potential, and is really and truly after many delays, about have a public launch with a web-based UI. It is a virtual world with a very impressive economic model, real profit opportunities, and for a certain audience (which may be quite large), it can be a lot of fun. That may well attract a lot of outside interest.

[owm123]

To break the situation, we need new investor money, or a killer app which will absolutely clean the table...  

The official gui would be a good start. I think linux users have not much problems with using command line tools, as they are most like accustomed to it anyway. But the problem is with windows and mac users.

Having said that, I also think that first the core functionality should be super polished, maybe even i2p added, before the efforts are made to make it look nice. There is nothing worse that spending time on the look and feel when the core functionality is "sort off OK" and "it seems to work". Thus I very much like the monero's development style, i.e., focusing what is really important first, rather then what is of little importance from the algorithmic point of view.

[jehst]

A game can definitely be a killer app. CK is better as an actual use-case than anything that other alts have presently (i.e. nothing)

[dEBRUYNE]

Great news guys! Another developer/contributer pitched a proposal for a part-time contract, see details below:

https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/2373/documentation-and-cleanup-of-source-code

PS: It's open for funding already!

Great work guys, we're at 3,429.43/3,600.00 (95.21%). I am a bit intrigued this was nearly raised within one day!

Fully funded :-) Great work! In addition:

<tewinget> I have other projects in mind that will be far more interesting, but this had to come first imo.