[XMR] Monero Speculation

[iCEBREAKER]

The argument has been made by quite a few people that satoshi's alleged stash is a cloud over the market since he could decide to start selling it at any unknown time.

Satoshi could also decide to reinvest his stash back into Bitcoin R&D, education, marketing, bootstrapping, etc.

Imagine the headlines if He started to pay people (in highly-collectible OG Bitcoins) to teach farmers/tutors/doctors/unbanked/emigrants how to use Bitcoin!

[chennan]

The argument has been made by quite a few people that satoshi's alleged stash is a cloud over the market since he could decide to start selling it at any unknown time.

Satoshi could also decide to reinvest his stash back into Bitcoin R&D, education, marketing, bootstrapping, etc.

Imagine the headlines if He started to pay people (in highly-collectible OG Bitcoins) to teach farmers/tutors/doctors/unbanked/emigrants how to use Bitcoin!

I really don't think it will make the "headlines" you're thinking about, when it comes to mainstream news picking up on it... but in the bitcoin community it would be huge news.  But why would he pay people to "teach" them how to use his coin? That doesn't really make any sense.

[boolberry]

The argument has been made by quite a few people that satoshi's alleged stash is a cloud over the market since he could decide to start selling it at any unknown time.

Satoshi could also decide to reinvest his stash back into Bitcoin R&D, education, marketing, bootstrapping, etc.

Imagine the headlines if He started to pay people (in highly-collectible OG Bitcoins) to teach farmers/tutors/doctors/unbanked/emigrants how to use Bitcoin!

I really don't think it will make the "headlines" you're thinking about, when it comes to mainstream news picking up on it... but in the bitcoin community it would be huge news.  But why would he pay people to "teach" them how to use his coin? That doesn't really make any sense.

I speculate that if satoshi is alive he/she values privacy and has little need for large sums of money. Therefore the coins may sit idle for many years before being used.

[chennan]

I speculate that if satoshi is alive he/she values privacy and has little need for large sums of money. Therefore the coins may sit idle for many years before being used.

IF it gets spent at all... I don't believe he/she will, but then again who knows.  I believe that it is a very bad thing if a currencies ecosystem will essentially collapse if Satoshi were to start spending his coins at all, in speculation that Satoshi himself doesn't believe bitcoins are worth it anymore... Like what americanpegasus pointed out earlier in the thread.

[MalMen]

How much for the Buddha?

5€ or 8.33 monero

[iCEBREAKER]

The argument has been made by quite a few people that satoshi's alleged stash is a cloud over the market since he could decide to start selling it at any unknown time.

Satoshi could also decide to reinvest his stash back into Bitcoin R&D, education, marketing, bootstrapping, etc.

Imagine the headlines if He started to pay people (in highly-collectible OG Bitcoins) to teach farmers/tutors/doctors/unbanked/emigrants how to use Bitcoin!

I really don't think it will make the "headlines" you're thinking about, when it comes to mainstream news picking up on it... but in the bitcoin community it would be huge news.  But why would he pay people to "teach" them how to use his coin? That doesn't really make any sense.

Satoshi could pay people who DO know how to use Bitcoin to teach those who DO NOT.  The more the merrier, because of the network effect.

It would make sense financially (as well as ideologically) to spend half his coins on education/outreach if the new user influx at least doubled the value of the remaining half.

The MSM loves a good story, especially ones about our mysterious founder.  Should He choose to become the world's wealthiest anonymous philanthropist, the hype would be bigger than Gox+Silkroad+Dorian+$1200ATH put together.

[Melbustus]

The argument has been made by quite a few people that satoshi's alleged stash is a cloud over the market since he could decide to start selling it at any unknown time.

Satoshi could also decide to reinvest his stash back into Bitcoin R&D, education, marketing, bootstrapping, etc.

Imagine the headlines if He started to pay people (in highly-collectible OG Bitcoins) to teach farmers/tutors/doctors/unbanked/emigrants how to use Bitcoin!

Dunno. The best way for him to "spend" his coins might be if they went in a single tx to "1LongLiveBitcoin..." (or otherwise visibly destroyed). I do think the market-overhang is an issue, and that's the only way to completely resolve it.
[ can you imagine what the bitcoin-days-destroyed chart would look like? heh... ]

Another (quite longtail) option: if bitcoin continues to gain traction, give govs each a key to an M of N address and ship the 1M BTC to that address as a global "stability fund". That'd provide some traditional "elasticity" and central management to the bitcoin money supply (which obviously govs will demand), but keeps it decidedly limited. They'd probably blow the 1M BTC pretty quickly anyway and then bitcoin would be even more embedded into the global economy (and still limited supply and transparent).

[olcaytu2005]

WHY DASH AND MONERO COMMUNITY FIGHT CONSISTENTLY? WHY THEY DONT LIKE FROM EACH OTHER?

[iCEBREAKER]

The argument has been made by quite a few people that satoshi's alleged stash is a cloud over the market since he could decide to start selling it at any unknown time.

Satoshi could also decide to reinvest his stash back into Bitcoin R&D, education, marketing, bootstrapping, etc.

Imagine the headlines if He started to pay people (in highly-collectible OG Bitcoins) to teach farmers/tutors/doctors/unbanked/emigrants how to use Bitcoin!

Dunno. The best way for him to "spend" his coins might be if they went in a single tx to "1LongLiveBitcoin..." (or otherwise visibly destroyed). I do think the market-overhang is an issue, and that's the only way to completely resolve it.
[ can you imagine what the bitcoin-days-destroyed chart would look like? heh... ]

Another (quite longtail) option: if bitcoin continues to gain traction, give govs each a key to an M of N address and ship the 1M BTC to that address as a global "stability fund". That'd provide some traditional "elasticity" and central management to the bitcoin money supply (which obviously govs will demand), but keeps it decidedly limited. They'd probably blow the 1M BTC pretty quickly anyway and then bitcoin would be even more embedded into the global economy (and still limited supply and transparent).

If Satoshi wanted to destroy his coins he'd have done it by now, and "govs" are the last entities to which He would entrust Bitcoin.

With tree signatures, Satoshi could allow ~everyone to vote on if/how they are used....

[smoothie]

WHY DASH AND MONERO COMMUNITY FIGHT CONSISTENTLY? WHY THEY DONT LIKE FROM EACH OTHER?

I don't see any fighting.

Mostly just calling out a spade for being a spade.

Btw this is borderline off topic.

[olcaytu2005]

WHY DASH AND MONERO COMMUNITY FIGHT CONSISTENTLY? WHY THEY DONT LIKE FROM EACH OTHER?

I don't see any fighting.

Are you blind?

Mostly just calling out a spade for being a spade.

it s not call a spade a spade it s just FUD

Btw this is borderline off topic.

Report me.

[Melbustus]

The argument has been made by quite a few people that satoshi's alleged stash is a cloud over the market since he could decide to start selling it at any unknown time.

Satoshi could also decide to reinvest his stash back into Bitcoin R&D, education, marketing, bootstrapping, etc.

Imagine the headlines if He started to pay people (in highly-collectible OG Bitcoins) to teach farmers/tutors/doctors/unbanked/emigrants how to use Bitcoin!

Dunno. The best way for him to "spend" his coins might be if they went in a single tx to "1LongLiveBitcoin..." (or otherwise visibly destroyed). I do think the market-overhang is an issue, and that's the only way to completely resolve it.
[ can you imagine what the bitcoin-days-destroyed chart would look like? heh... ]

Another (quite longtail) option: if bitcoin continues to gain traction, give govs each a key to an M of N address and ship the 1M BTC to that address as a global "stability fund". That'd provide some traditional "elasticity" and central management to the bitcoin money supply (which obviously govs will demand), but keeps it decidedly limited. They'd probably blow the 1M BTC pretty quickly anyway and then bitcoin would be even more embedded into the global economy (and still limited supply and transparent).

If Satoshi wanted to destroy his coins he'd have done it by now, and "govs" are the last entities to which He would entrust Bitcoin.

With tree signatures, Satoshi could allow ~everyone to vote on if/how they are used....

Agree on both counts, unfortunately.

Unfortunately because Satoshi's coins are indeed a negative for the ecosystem. People need to trust that:
1) Satoshi won't just dump 'em for diversification (I personally doubt it)
2) Satoshi won't dump 'em for some other reason (ie, he goes insane, finds himself under duress, etc)
3) His keys don't get hacked
4) He doesn't ultimately pass the stash on to others who are less ideologically-motivated and less careful than he seems to be

In short, it seems clear that the ecosystem would be better off without having to worry about the above, even if they're only tiny concerns.

[generalizethis]

it s not call a spade a spade it s just FUD

Masternodes are bad for privacy and a 1.5 million instamine shouldn't allow you to post "No Premine" on all your media without someone calling you out for BS. So as soon as dash stops calling itself anonymous (or fixes its anonymity issues) and stops bullshitting people who are looking for a fairly launched coin with their semantic-contortions of  "No Premine," I'll stop pointing out their falsehoods. Until then it's the truth, so deal with it.

And to get us (kinda) back on topic, I speculate a few others feel the same.

[ArticMine]

...

Agree on both counts, unfortunately.

Unfortunately because Satoshi's coins are indeed a negative for the ecosystem. People need to trust that:
1) Satoshi won't just dump 'em for diversification (I personally doubt it)
2) Satoshi won't dump 'em for some other reason (ie, he goes insane, finds himself under duress, etc)
3) His keys don't get hacked
4) He doesn't ultimately pass the stash on to others who are less ideologically-motivated and less careful than he seems to be

In short, it seems clear that the ecosystem would be better off without having to worry about the above, even if they're only tiny concerns.

... but there remains the issue of Satoshi dying and creating a massive capital gains / estate tax liability. When it comes to Satoshi's coins I am far more concerned about Satoshi's estate than Satoshi.  

[illodin]

WHY DASH AND MONERO COMMUNITY FIGHT CONSISTENTLY? WHY THEY DONT LIKE FROM EACH OTHER?

Because some think the reason Monero isn't going anywhere is DASH.

[kazuki49]

... but there remains the issue of Satoshi dying and creating a massive capital gains / estate tax liability. When it comes to Satoshi's coins I am far more concerned about Satoshi's estate than Satoshi.  

Satoshi's coins are forever a dark cloud hanging over the markets, I think he deserves his fortune but it is what it is, like any coin with premine or instamine these coins could be dumped at any time, we can't ever be sure if he still has the private keys or someone else is or will be in possession of them and will ever move or dump the coins, it is an eternal state of uncertainty.

[Harpua]

... but there remains the issue of Satoshi dying and creating a massive capital gains / estate tax liability. When it comes to Satoshi's coins I am far more concerned about Satoshi's estate than Satoshi.  

Satoshis coin are forever a dark cloud hanging over the markest, I think he deserves his fortune but it is what it is, like any coin with premine or instamine these coin could be dumped at any time, we can't ever be sure if he still has the private keys or someone else is or will be in possession of them and will ever move or dump the coins, it is an eternal state of uncertainty.

Idk if I remember correctly, but I remember seeing a thread somewhere on here that Satoshi actually did move his coins... Is there any validity to this?

[iCEBREAKER]

Satoshis coin are forever a dark cloud hanging over the markest, I think he deserves his fortune but it is what it is, like any coin with premine or instamine these coin could be dumped at any time, we can't ever be sure if he still has the private keys or someone else is or will be in possession of them and will ever move or dump the coins, it is an eternal state of uncertainty.

Satoshi's 'Sword of Damocles' coins may help discourage or tamp down irrational exuberance, perhaps making price growth less speculative and more solid.

In any case, the overwrought FUD about them ignores how antifragility works.  IE, they will either kill Bitcoin or make it stronger.  And they aren't going to kill Bitcoin, so....

 

[rangedriver]

WHY DASH AND MONERO COMMUNITY FIGHT CONSISTENTLY?

They're not.

Dash doesn't have a community anymore so it can't be accused of fighting. (You can't fight if you don't exist.) The market traders who have temporal dash positions are engaging for the sake of self-service.

That said I really don't feel sorry for Evan that the project failed. It was poorly conceived, poor branded, and then apocalyptically rebranded.

No-one could afford to have such dangerously flawed projects in a space where we badly needed a strong counterpoint.

Simple as that.

[dEBRUYNE]

... but there remains the issue of Satoshi dying and creating a massive capital gains / estate tax liability. When it comes to Satoshi's coins I am far more concerned about Satoshi's estate than Satoshi.  

Satoshis coin are forever a dark cloud hanging over the markest, I think he deserves his fortune but it is what it is, like any coin with premine or instamine these coin could be dumped at any time, we can't ever be sure if he still has the private keys or someone else is or will be in possession of them and will ever move or dump the coins, it is an eternal state of uncertainty.

Idk if I remember correctly, but I remember seeing a thread somewhere on here that Satoshi actually did move his coins... Is there any validity to this?

That was a bug from one of the block explorers where a fake transaction hash got injected and subsequently approved because their script was buggy. Obviously fake, since no other block explorers were showing the transcation.

@Melbustus: Regarding Satoshi's coins, I dug up a past reply of mine that perfectly suits the current scenario with his coins as well:

Monero has the advantage that, unlike with Bitcoin, you can't track the blockchain for incoming deposits at exchanges nor measure the amount of Bitcoin days destroyed. I've witnessed multiple occasions where people started dumping based on Bitcoin days destroyed.