[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

When people did not trust USD (free banking era, late 1800s), it was common to make debts payable in gold.

One of the most shameful acts ever in the history of central banking (not that it in any way lacks shameful acts to compare with) was to retroactively declare such terms void in 1933 (in addition to forbidding making new ones). So people who had lent gold to other people in full accordance with all existing laws, got only about half back.

I am telling this just to present the playing field. Unfair statutes have been made as long as government has existed, and will. The freeman's responsibility is to select the ones he wants to comply with. In this thread far too few have realized the name of the game, so please forgive the old grump.

Fractional Reserve Banking is profitable for an individual if (s)he knows how to play with it.

For instance currently in Finland if you have income enough and ability to repay a loan you are able to get quite cheap financing from the banks. Even the fixed rates are low (around 3 % for 15 year fixed mortgage rate when I asked how much we would need to pay for the loan, it is cheaper of course if you do not fix the interest rate).
Banks are lending up to 95 % of the value which means you can become wealthy if you have some money to put as downpayment and let your tenants repay your loan + interest.

Personally I am willing to take as much loans as possible which I can get for these low rates, and not for consumption but for buying assets that the banks are accepting as collateral and getting a residual cashflow from those.

I am usually the benevolent type but after your latest stunt I kindly ask you to chose another cryptocurrency for your speculation games.

You are free to ask and thank you for doing it kindly, I appreciate it. 

However, Monero works differently. It is slightly deflationary especially if the annual inflation is smaller than the average growth of productivity (in the long run).
For this purpose, it is a smart move to hoard Moneros, not to dump them.
In fiat system, it is a smart move to dump them and borrow as much as you can in order to dump even more fiat.
In fiat system, also the economic growth comes from borrowing money and investing it in a smart manner.
Each time I buy an appartment for cashflow I pay all sorts of commissions to sales people (real estate agents in form of purchase price, mortgage brokers and tenant brokers).
If nobody took in the current system loans and invests, the people would suffer even more from economic decline Europe is facing now.
And I am not talking about borrowing money in order to buy watches, sport cars and expensive wines but real thing that brings utility to others.

[Shrikez]

When people did not trust USD (free banking era, late 1800s), it was common to make debts payable in gold.

One of the most shameful acts ever in the history of central banking (not that it in any way lacks shameful acts to compare with) was to retroactively declare such terms void in 1933 (in addition to forbidding making new ones). So people who had lent gold to other people in full accordance with all existing laws, got only about half back.

I am telling this just to present the playing field. Unfair statutes have been made as long as government has existed, and will. The freeman's responsibility is to select the ones he wants to comply with. In this thread far too few have realized the name of the game, so please forgive the old grump.

Fractional Reserve Banking is profitable for an individual if (s)he knows how to play with it.

For instance currently in Finland if you have income enough and ability to repay a loan you are able to get quite cheap financing from the banks. Even the fixed rates are low (around 3 % for 15 year fixed mortgage rate when I asked how much we would need to pay for the loan, it is cheaper of course if you do not fix the interest rate).
Banks are lending up to 95 % of the value which means you can become wealthy if you have some money to put as downpayment and let your tenants repay your loan + interest.

Personally I am willing to take as much loans as possible which I can get for these low rates, and not for consumption but for buying assets that the banks are accepting as collateral and getting a residual cashflow from those.

I am usually the benevolent type but after your latest stunt I kindly ask you to chose another cryptocurrency for your speculation games.

You are free to ask and thank you for doing it kindly, I appreciate it. 

However, Monero works differently. It is slightly deflationary especially if the annual inflation is smaller than the average growth of productivity (in the long run).
For this purpose, it is a smart move to hoard Moneros, not to dump them.
In fiat system, it is a smart move to dump them and borrow as much as you can in order to dump even more fiat.
In fiat system, also the economic growth comes from borrowing money and investing it in a smart manner.
Each time I buy an appartment for cashflow I pay all sorts of commissions to sales people (real estate agents in form of purchase price, mortgage brokers and tenant brokers).
If nobody took in the current system loans and invests, the people would suffer even more from economic decline Europe is facing now.
And I am not talking about borrowing money in order to buy watches, sport cars and expensive wines but real thing that brings utility to others.

it is also smart not to hurt confidence in the currency you appreciate (for whatever reasons) by playing manipulation games to earn, at best, a couple of BTC. And provoke an avalanche of panic sells while doing so. Please be at least so honest as to acknowledge your doings.

However I know it's the name of the game in crypto so why do I even bother.

[TrueCryptonaire]

When people did not trust USD (free banking era, late 1800s), it was common to make debts payable in gold.

One of the most shameful acts ever in the history of central banking (not that it in any way lacks shameful acts to compare with) was to retroactively declare such terms void in 1933 (in addition to forbidding making new ones). So people who had lent gold to other people in full accordance with all existing laws, got only about half back.

I am telling this just to present the playing field. Unfair statutes have been made as long as government has existed, and will. The freeman's responsibility is to select the ones he wants to comply with. In this thread far too few have realized the name of the game, so please forgive the old grump.

Fractional Reserve Banking is profitable for an individual if (s)he knows how to play with it.

For instance currently in Finland if you have income enough and ability to repay a loan you are able to get quite cheap financing from the banks. Even the fixed rates are low (around 3 % for 15 year fixed mortgage rate when I asked how much we would need to pay for the loan, it is cheaper of course if you do not fix the interest rate).
Banks are lending up to 95 % of the value which means you can become wealthy if you have some money to put as downpayment and let your tenants repay your loan + interest.

Personally I am willing to take as much loans as possible which I can get for these low rates, and not for consumption but for buying assets that the banks are accepting as collateral and getting a residual cashflow from those.

I am usually the benevolent type but after your latest stunt I kindly ask you to chose another cryptocurrency for your speculation games.

You are free to ask and thank you for doing it kindly, I appreciate it. 

However, Monero works differently. It is slightly deflationary especially if the annual inflation is smaller than the average growth of productivity (in the long run).
For this purpose, it is a smart move to hoard Moneros, not to dump them.
In fiat system, it is a smart move to dump them and borrow as much as you can in order to dump even more fiat.
In fiat system, also the economic growth comes from borrowing money and investing it in a smart manner.
Each time I buy an appartment for cashflow I pay all sorts of commissions to sales people (real estate agents in form of purchase price, mortgage brokers and tenant brokers).
If nobody took in the current system loans and invests, the people would suffer even more from economic decline Europe is facing now.
And I am not talking about borrowing money in order to buy watches, sport cars and expensive wines but real thing that brings utility to others.

it is also smart not to hurt confidence in the currency you appreciate (for whatever reasons) by playing manipulation games to earn, at best, a couple of BTC. And provoke an avalanche of panic sells while doing so. Please be at least so honest as to acknowledge your doings.

However I know it's the name of the game in crypto so why do I even bother.

After all, the manipulation walls are real if you marketbuy them and set even bigger buy wall instead.
That's the way in my opinion a rational player acts when (s)he sees a clear manipulation wall.

[languagehasmeaning]

I want to brag!

I think I just solved a major bitcointalk mystery:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1148538.msg12509091#msg12509091

There are several monero and boolberry people participating in that thread. I think its really cool

I speculate that people will pay attention to this chess thread. Chess players are smart and will understand the advantages of CryptoNote after they learn about it.

[jehst]

A coin should at least one stubborn company/organization/vendor/institution that is selling something only for that coin:

Bitcoin has drug dealers
Monero has Crypto Kingdom
Bitshares has bitUSD/bitCNY/etc.

DASH has its own built-in ponzi which I have to admit is clever but precarious.

[aminorex]

Cheap xmr is my only truly happy circumstance right now.  Thank you for that.

It has been a brutal, humbling month:  Stopped out in eurnok, which in retrospect seems obvious (what was I thinking?) and could barely hang on to my wheat through the dip. Thankfully, spus are still tanking, so at least I broke even on net.  1860 can't happen soon enough for me.

Looking forward,  I am shorting xau\xag above 80, if the opprtunity arises, and gbpjpy is starting to look interesting again. Imagining what will happen if hkd floats, I am considering calendar spreads of increasing ratio... unlike eurchf (my lifetime best call, that), hkd potentially has the backing of prc reserves, so it's really a tail speculation, no more.  It has to pay it's own carry, certainly.

[Minotaur26]

A coin should at least one stubborn company/organization/vendor/institution that is selling something only for that coin:

Bitcoin has drug dealers
Monero has Crypto Kingdom
Bitshares has bitUSD/bitCNY/etc.

DASH has its own built-in ponzi which I have to admit is clever but precarious.

Just for the sake of accuracy, Dash Masternodes are not a ponzi for one main reason there is a fix percentage of the block rewards that is divided  between all masternodes, as more join the network the reward for a node is less and less, tending to zero and finding equilibrium. So completely contrary to a Ponzi as more people join everyone's rewards go down.

Also, you don't give away control of your money to a third party, it is a liquid investment and you are always free to sell your coins. Not even when you use a masternode hosting service do you give your private keys.  The only situation in which you trust your keys to another person is when you want to pool your funds with another user to complete the collateral for a node.  So it is literally not a Ponzi. 

And sorry for the post, no intention to spam just felt misinformation needs to be corrected where it happens for the sake of everyone being correctly informed.  I am not saying the model is good, just that it is not a Ponzi.

Other than that, I agree Crypto Kingdom is a really interesting project and I am waiting to see how the Economy version goes, is very interesting to have playable real money.

[jehst]

A coin should at least one stubborn company/organization/vendor/institution that is selling something only for that coin:

Bitcoin has drug dealers
Monero has Crypto Kingdom
Bitshares has bitUSD/bitCNY/etc.

DASH has its own built-in ponzi which I have to admit is clever but precarious.

Just for the sake of accuracy, Dash Masternodes are not a ponzi for one main reason there is a fix percentage of the block rewards that is divided  between all masternodes, as more join the network the reward for a node is less and less, tending to zero and finding equilibrium. So completely contrary to a Ponzi as more people join everyone's rewards go down.

Also, you don't give away control of your money to a third party, it is a liquid investment and you are always free to sell your coins. Not even when you use a masternode hosting service do you give your private keys.  The only situation in which you trust your keys to another person is when you want to pool your funds with another user to complete the collateral for a node.  So it is literally not a Ponzi.  

And sorry for the post, no intention to spam just felt misinformation needs to be corrected where it happens for the sake of everyone being correctly informed.  I am not saying the model is good, just that it is not a Ponzi.

Other than that, I agree Crypto Kingdom is a really interesting project and I am waiting to see how the Economy version goes, is very interesting to have playable real money.

I know it's not technically a ponzi. I meant it to be disparaging. Just some good old fashioned DRK-bashing.

Bitcoin has more people using it than drug dealers, too. Just a big oversimplification. But the main point stands. There should be something that's soaking up coins. Something besides speculation.

[Hueristic]

I want to brag!

I think I just solved a major bitcointalk mystery:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1148538.msg12509091#msg12509091

There are several monero and boolberry people participating in that thread. I think its really cool

I speculate that people will pay attention to this chess thread. Chess players are smart and will understand the advantages of CryptoNote after they learn about it.

You should post what move you would have made after our move is decided on so we can learn.

[Hueristic]

Cheap xmr is my only truly happy circumstance right now.  Thank you for that.

It has been a brutal, humbling month:  Stopped out in eurnok, which in retrospect seems obvious (what was I thinking?) and could barely hang on to my wheat through the dip. Thankfully, spus are still tanking, so at least I broke even on net.  1860 can't happen soon enough for me.

Looking forward,  I am shorting xau\xag above 80, if the opprtunity arises, and gbpjpy is starting to look interesting again. Imagining what will happen if hkd floats, I am considering calendar spreads of increasing ratio... unlike eurchf (my lifetime best call, that), hkd potentially has the backing of prc reserves, so it's really a tail speculation, no more.  It has to pay it's own carry, certainly.

I've been trying not to get lost in online games since their inception but your post is really tempting me. Ever play King of Dragon Pass? It's set in the realm Glorantha (Runequest). I wasted alot of my life in the 80's on that.

[Hueristic]

...
Just for the sake of accuracy, Dash Masternodes are not a ponzi ...

Correct, Instamine/hardfork coin grab is the term I use.

... There should be something that's soaking up coins. Something besides speculation.

This is still the accumulation and development cycle, down the road (years) there can be no instamine accusations with this distribution model. Anyone can buy in right now and be on a level playing field. I expect another year before XMR is ready for prime time at current rate. And that is with ongoing non stop development that is happening as we speak. There is so much work going on under the hood right now that anyone not accumulating this emission as it's dumped will be crying like everyone that missed BTC.

[Melbustus]

...
One of the most shameful acts ever in the history of central banking (not that it in any way lacks shameful acts to compare with) was to retroactively declare such terms void in 1933 (in addition to forbidding making new ones).
...

It also invalidated gold paper contracts, ...

Like these?

[dEBRUYNE]

...
One of the most shameful acts ever in the history of central banking (not that it in any way lacks shameful acts to compare with) was to retroactively declare such terms void in 1933 (in addition to forbidding making new ones).
...

It also invalidated gold paper contracts, ...

Like these?

Something like that I guess, this was an interesting read -> http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37034

I hate to point out, but before 1934 there was a vast amount of “paper gold” for contracts were expressed in terms of gold. The Supreme Court nullified all private contracts by stating that a gold clause could not be enforced. (see: PERRY v. UNITED STATES, 294 U.S. 330 (1935))

It is amazing that people think that under a gold standard there had to be actual physical gold. Contracts simply expressed in terms of gold to be paid in the future did not require gold to exist. There were no differences between debt denominated in gold before 1934 or dollar denominated debt post-1934.

In addition -> http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/rule-of-law/perry-v-united-states-294-u-s-330-1935

[smooth]

... There should be something that's soaking up coins. Something besides speculation.

This is still the accumulation and development cycle, down the road (years) there can be no instamine accusations with this distribution model. Anyone can buy in right now and be on a level playing field. I expect another year before XMR is ready for prime time at current rate. And that is with ongoing non stop development that is happening as we speak. There is so much work going on under the hood right now that anyone not accumulating this emission as it's dumped will be crying like everyone that missed BTC.

I agree with both of you. More good reasons to want to own and use the coin are better for the coin. That includes (but certainly not limited to) more investors. While it is true that time will help, that can be self defeating if everyone says "this will be solved in the future" and no one actually does anything to solve it.

[smooth]

Just for the sake of accuracy, Dash Masternodes are not a ponzi for one main reason there is a fix percentage of the block rewards that is divided  between all masternodes, as more join the network the reward for a node is less and less, tending to zero and finding equilibrium. So completely contrary to a Ponzi as more people join everyone's rewards go down.

Also, you don't give away control of your money to a third party, it is a liquid investment and you are always free to sell your coins. Not even when you use a masternode hosting service do you give your private keys.  The only situation in which you trust your keys to another person is when you want to pool your funds with another user to complete the collateral for a node.  So it is literally not a Ponzi. 

And sorry for the post, no intention to spam just felt misinformation needs to be corrected where it happens for the sake of everyone being correctly informed.  I am not saying the model is good, just that it is not a Ponzi.

I mostly agree with you on a technical level of specifics, but is also undeniably true that many see all cryptos as a sort of ponzi scheme because their value (and at an essential minimum your ability to invest and later sell at a profit) in external terms depends critically on new investors continuing to buy it (or existing investors buying more). But again this applies to all cryptos to varying degrees, not just Dash or Dash-like ones.

This will continue to be somewhat correct (and certainly will appear to many to be correct) in economic terms as long as the main "use" of these coins is speculation, since there is no sort of service being delivered that could pay a return to investors, so any such return has to come from other investors.

[dEBRUYNE]

... There should be something that's soaking up coins. Something besides speculation.

This is still the accumulation and development cycle, down the road (years) there can be no instamine accusations with this distribution model. Anyone can buy in right now and be on a level playing field. I expect another year before XMR is ready for prime time at current rate. And that is with ongoing non stop development that is happening as we speak. There is so much work going on under the hood right now that anyone not accumulating this emission as it's dumped will be crying like everyone that missed BTC.

I agree with both of you. More good reasons to want to own and use the coin are better for the coin. That includes (but certainly not limited to) more investors. While it is true that time will help, that can be self defeating if everyone says "this will be solved in the future" and no one actually does anything to solve it.

I agree with you on the bolded part in general. However, aren't we currently countering this in Monero by funding part time developers and other significant proposals? I actually have the feeling the development, opposed to the begining of the year, is gaining some traction. I think the community is smart enough to comprehend that, whilst time will help, we also need to put in effort ourselves. One way or another.  

[dEBRUYNE]

Crosspost worthy from the official forum:

I'm going to start this thread as a precursor for additions to the official website section.

Check that a recipient has received your funds:

http://xmrtests.llcoins.net/checktx.html

Tools for monero address generation

http://xmrtests.llcoins.net/addresstests.html

If anything is funky/not working as expected with those pages, please let me know. You can also save the webpage and use it offline (or at least locally in case the online version got compromised).

[dEBRUYNE]

Another one, an update from our part time developer tewinget on documentation and cleanup of source code.

https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/2373/documentation-and-cleanup-of-source-code?page=&noscroll=1#post-4033

[smooth]

... There should be something that's soaking up coins. Something besides speculation.

This is still the accumulation and development cycle, down the road (years) there can be no instamine accusations with this distribution model. Anyone can buy in right now and be on a level playing field. I expect another year before XMR is ready for prime time at current rate. And that is with ongoing non stop development that is happening as we speak. There is so much work going on under the hood right now that anyone not accumulating this emission as it's dumped will be crying like everyone that missed BTC.

I agree with both of you. More good reasons to want to own and use the coin are better for the coin. That includes (but certainly not limited to) more investors. While it is true that time will help, that can be self defeating if everyone says "this will be solved in the future" and no one actually does anything to solve it.

I agree with you on the bolded part in general. However, aren't we currently countering this in Monero by funding part time developers and other significant proposals? I actually have the feeling the development, opposed to the begining of the year, is gaining some traction. I think the community is smart enough to comprehend that, whilst time will help, we also need to put in effort ourselves. One way or another.  

Yes I agree. Just clarifying that actually doing things is important not just waiting for "down the road (years)" for the golden donkey to arrive. Many are in fact doing things, as you correctly point out.

[luigi1111]

Crosspost worthy from the official forum:

I'm going to start this thread as a precursor for additions to the official website section.

Check that a recipient has received your funds:

http://xmrtests.llcoins.net/checktx.html

Tools for monero address generation

http://xmrtests.llcoins.net/addresstests.html

If anything is funky/not working as expected with those pages, please let me know. You can also save the webpage and use it offline (or at least locally in case the online version got compromised).

Also, if someone skilled with CSS wants to pretty the pages up, please contact me!

Edit: I speculate nothing.

Edit2: Except I did buy some Monero yesterday (TC style! (or do I have to post amounts for that?)).