[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Abiky]

Monero might take Ripple's place in market cap becoming #2....only time will tell 

[owm123]

I always thought Litecoin was going to be the #2 altcoin forever because of its "Bitcoin backup" status.  Boy, those were the days of being naive.

It should be pretty obvious that the #2 coin is going to be a privacy centric coin in the future.

Monero seems poised to take that spot, as continues its slow (but steady) growth.

The problem is that general public does not care much about privacy. if privacy was something that general public actually cared, facebook would be not in a position it is today, microsoft  would get much more heat for windows 10, and samsungs smart tvs would not sell so well.

One reason for this is education. Most people dont know how all the modern 'smart' technology is intrusive. Second is government propaganda that encryption and hiding something is bad and if you should be an open book if you have nothing to hide. Just as an example, today I heard that australian tax office wants access to "metadata' of your phone, emails etc, for " the purpose of protecting public finances from serious criminal activities such as major tax fraud". You can just imagine what they would do if putting money in monero, in which it is hidden from spying, would become popular.

Wining with privacy and anonymity is basically a lost battle at this stage. But, this does not stop monero from being used and success. For monero to success, it is enough to build a community that will be using it, not only for quick pumps and dumps. It does not have to be #2, as this will attract too much attention from anti-privacy governments and agencies, and definitly from tax office. Let 95% people use bitcoins, litecoins and let monero be used by fraction of people who truly care about privacy. Similarly, like with email. Let most people use gmail, outlook, and let just fraction use privacy centric emails. tutanota or protonmail do not need to win with gmail or outlook to be successful. So continueing in this wain, it would be perfect start for monero, if privacy oriented services, like tutanota or protonmail, vpn providers, etc, started accepting monero. Because if priavecy oriented service providers will not see the importance of protecting ones privacy and anonymity in payments, no one else will.

[smoothie]

The problem is that general public does not care much about privacy. if privacy was something that general public actually cared, facebook would be not in a position it is today, microsoft  would get much more heat for windows 10, and samsungs smart tvs would not sell so well.

That ^ can change. A financial crisis or a internet dooms day scenario could change all of that.

I believe there will come a day that the internet will not be what it is today (free and open).

That would change privacy implications on that level.

People have not been burned with their 401k's yet as the debt bubble and stock market bubble have not popped fully.

Once that happens and people lose trust in the legacy financial system, privacy will be paramount as more laws for reporting and transparency of one's finances will be required to an even greater extent than it is today.

Just look at the attempts to ban cash happening around the world. That is a step in the direction of an age of "no privacy".

People will value their privacy once they get burned really bad by the powers that be.

[generalizethis]

The problem is that general public does not care much about privacy. if privacy was something that general public actually cared, facebook would be not in a position it is today, microsoft  would get much more heat for windows 10, and samsungs smart tvs would not sell so well.

That ^ can change. A financial crisis or a internet dooms day scenario could change all of that.

I believe there will come a day that the internet will not be what it is today (free and open).

That would change privacy implications on that level.

People have not been burned with their 401k's yet as the debt bubble and stock market bubble have not popped fully.

Once that happens and people lose trust in the legacy financial system, privacy will be paramount as more laws for reporting and transparency of one's finances will be required to an even greater extent than it is today.

Just look at the attempts to ban cash happening around the world. That is a step in the direction of an age of "no privacy".

People will value their privacy once they get burned really bad by the powers that be.

I'll add that the professionals in the security and finance fields understand that privacy and security are inextricably tied together and will not be using Bitcoin or litecoin to handle their own assets or the assets of the companies they represent. Of course this assumes that a privacy coin gets the liquidity to handle 6 figure+ transactions.

[smoothie]

The problem is that general public does not care much about privacy. if privacy was something that general public actually cared, facebook would be not in a position it is today, microsoft  would get much more heat for windows 10, and samsungs smart tvs would not sell so well.

That ^ can change. A financial crisis or a internet dooms day scenario could change all of that.

I believe there will come a day that the internet will not be what it is today (free and open).

That would change privacy implications on that level.

People have not been burned with their 401k's yet as the debt bubble and stock market bubble have not popped fully.

Once that happens and people lose trust in the legacy financial system, privacy will be paramount as more laws for reporting and transparency of one's finances will be required to an even greater extent than it is today.

Just look at the attempts to ban cash happening around the world. That is a step in the direction of an age of "no privacy".

People will value their privacy once they get burned really bad by the powers that be.

I'll add that the professionals in the security and finance fields understand that privacy and security are inextricably tied together and will not be using Bitcoin or litecoin to handle their own assets or the assets of the companies they represent. Of course this assumes that a privacy coin gets the liquidity to handle 6 figure+ transactions.

Did you say this because there is a transparent ledger (the blockchain)?

[Bassica]

http://www.ted.com/talks/jamie_bartlett_how_the_mysterious_dark_net_is_going_mainstream

[owm123]

The problem is that general public does not care much about privacy. if privacy was something that general public actually cared, facebook would be not in a position it is today, microsoft  would get much more heat for windows 10, and samsungs smart tvs would not sell so well.

That ^ can change. A financial crisis or a internet dooms day scenario could change all of that.

I believe there will come a day that the internet will not be what it is today (free and open).

That would change privacy implications on that level.

People have not been burned with their 401k's yet as the debt bubble and stock market bubble have not popped fully.

Once that happens and people lose trust in the legacy financial system, privacy will be paramount as more laws for reporting and transparency of one's finances will be required to an even greater extent than it is today.

Just look at the attempts to ban cash happening around the world. That is a step in the direction of an age of "no privacy".

People will value their privacy once they get burned really bad by the powers that be.

I'll add that the professionals in the security and finance fields understand that privacy and security are inextricably tied together and will not be using Bitcoin or litecoin to handle their own assets or the assets of the companies they represent. Of course this assumes that a privacy coin gets the liquidity to handle 6 figure+ transactions.

But you need to start somewhere. No one will put 6+ figures into monero, or any other private coin, if its not even use for few dollar transactions by privacy oriented companies, such as to pay for vpn, secure email, etc. Hell, even key websites focusing on advicing people about privacy and anonimity on the Interent (e.g. https://www.privacytools.io/) dont even mention monero (though they have namecoin; better than nothing I guess). Even darknet markets dont care about monero. Most of them use bitcion, some litecoin.

So how you can think about 6+ figures use for monero, if you cant even use it to pay for premium zenmate or tutanota account. And using xmr.to is far from perfect solution, as people looking for privacy and anonymity, are simply often vary vary in trusting any third party companies/websites. 

Thus, to start spreading the word; and subsequently, use cases for monero, the best way, in my view, is start from small privacy oriented services. I would be very happy if I could pay for tutanota or zenmate with monero, or even if www.privacytools.io recommended it.

p.s.
And yes, I contacted privacytools.io about adding monero, and  guess what - nothing. I guess I was the only one suggesting monero, or they also dont care. I also asked zenmate about monero, and guess what: "Currently we do not have plans for Monero, but thanks for the idea.". Probably they even haven't heard about it, until I emailed them.

[generalizethis]

Did you say this because there is a transparent ledger (the blockchain)?

Yes. A transparent ledger is not something a company wants their sensitive transactions etched on. I can't imagine a military or aerospace company paying a supplier over a clear channel. Or a government taking payments (for non-disclosed activities) from another nation by way of a public blockchain. Or an Uber driver disclosing their finances by way of a public address.

Actually, I can imagine the last one, but that goes to the average person not understanding how security and privacy are linked.

Monero doesn't need to get the average person to get privacy to be successful, it needs the people who already get privacy to see that it is the best method to achieve financial privacy over the internet.

[XMRpromotions]

The problem is that general public does not care much about privacy. if privacy was something that general public actually cared, facebook would be not in a position it is today, microsoft  would get much more heat for windows 10, and samsungs smart tvs would not sell so well.

That ^ can change. A financial crisis or a internet dooms day scenario could change all of that.

I believe there will come a day that the internet will not be what it is today (free and open).

That would change privacy implications on that level.

People have not been burned with their 401k's yet as the debt bubble and stock market bubble have not popped fully.

Once that happens and people lose trust in the legacy financial system, privacy will be paramount as more laws for reporting and transparency of one's finances will be required to an even greater extent than it is today.

Just look at the attempts to ban cash happening around the world. That is a step in the direction of an age of "no privacy".

People will value their privacy once they get burned really bad by the powers that be.

I'll add that the professionals in the security and finance fields understand that privacy and security are inextricably tied together and will not be using Bitcoin or litecoin to handle their own assets or the assets of the companies they represent. Of course this assumes that a privacy coin gets the liquidity to handle 6 figure+ transactions.

But you need to start somewhere. No one will put 6+ figures into monero, or any other private coin, if its not even use for few dollar transactions by privacy oriented companies, such as to pay for vpn, secure email, etc. Hell, even key websites focusing on advicing people about privacy and anonimity on the Interent (e.g. https://www.privacytools.io/) dont even mention monero (though they have namecoin; better than nothing I guess). Even darknet markets dont care about monero. Most of them use bitcion, some litecoin.

So how you can think about 6+ figures use for monero, if you cant even use it to pay for premium zenmate or tutanota account. And using xmr.to is far from perfect solution, as people looking for privacy and anonymity, are simply often vary vary in trusting any third party companies/websites.  

Thus, to start spreading the word; and subsequently, use cases for monero, the best way, in my view, is start from small privacy oriented services. I would be very happy if I could pay for tutanota or zenmate with monero, or even if www.privacytools.io recommended it.

p.s.
And yes, I contacted privacytools.io about adding monero, and  guess what - nothing. I guess I was the only one suggesting monero, or they also dont care. I also asked zenmate about monero, and guess what: "Currently we do not have plans for Monero, but thanks for the idea.". Probably they even haven't heard about it, until I emailed them.

My primary goal is to raise awareness of Monero among privacy focused consumers and merchants. I have contacted several of the merchants you mentioned. If enough of us do the same they will start accepting Monero.

I tell privacy focused businesses the truth. Accepting Monero will lead to more business. I think a large number of Monero owners would gladly support a VPN, encrypted cloud storage provider, etc that accepted Monero.

Lets all be part of the solution. Keep contacting privacy focused businesses that you think should accept Monero and ask others to do the same

[owm123]

I'll add that the professionals in the security and finance fields understand that privacy and security are inextricably tied together and will not be using Bitcoin or litecoin to handle their own assets or the assets of the companies they represent. Of course this assumes that a privacy coin gets the liquidity to handle 6 figure+ transactions.

But you need to start somewhere. No one will put 6+ figures into monero, or any other private coin, if its not even use for few dollar transactions by privacy oriented companies, such as to pay for vpn, secure email, etc. Hell, even key websites focusing on advicing people about privacy and anonimity on the Interent (e.g. https://www.privacytools.io/) dont even mention monero (though they have namecoin; better than nothing I guess). Even darknet markets dont care about monero. Most of them use bitcion, some litecoin.

So how you can think about 6+ figures use for monero, if you cant even use it to pay for premium zenmate or tutanota account. And using xmr.to is far from perfect solution, as people looking for privacy and anonymity, are simply often vary vary in trusting any third party companies/websites.  

Thus, to start spreading the word; and subsequently, use cases for monero, the best way, in my view, is start from small privacy oriented services. I would be very happy if I could pay for tutanota or zenmate with monero, or even if www.privacytools.io recommended it.

p.s.
And yes, I contacted privacytools.io about adding monero, and  guess what - nothing. I guess I was the only one suggesting monero, or they also dont care. I also asked zenmate about monero, and guess what: "Currently we do not have plans for Monero, but thanks for the idea.". Probably they even haven't heard about it, until I emailed them.

My primary goal is to raise awareness of Monero among privacy focused consumers and merchants. I have contacted several of the merchants you mentioned. If enough of us do the same they will start accepting Monero.

And that's the best action you can take now for spreading monero usage, in my view. If someone uses some privacy oriented service, and especially he/she pays for it now or is willing to pay, its could be very beneficial just to email them asking about monero. Short email such as "Hi, I want to get/extend the premium account with you, but I dont want to have my transactions public in bitcion's blockchain. I want to use/pay for your service to protect my privacy. However, using bitcoin is almost opposite to this.  Do you accept monero instead? Thank you."  

[rangedriver]

And that's the best action you can take now for spreading monero usage, in my view. If someone uses some privacy oriented service, and especially he/she pays for it now or is willing to pay, its could be very beneficial just to email them asking about monero. Short email such as "Hi, I want to get/extend the premium account with you, but I dont want to have my transactions public in bitcion's blockchain. I want to use/pay for your service to protect my privacy. However, using bitcoin is almost opposite to this.  Do you accept monero instead? Thank you."  

There's an intermediate step: Donations.

Many org-type websites are often dependent on donations for their existence, and as such are open to facilitating as many donation methods as possible. I can think of a specific example of a dark-net forum which has a userbase of over 2 million - at the top of that website is a functional Bitcoin Donations button which is always visible, no matter what post or thread or sub-page is being accessed. So all you need is a Monero Donations button sitting next to it and you've got some prime-time advertising, branding re-inforcement, and real usage expansion right there. In the right areas, this will prepare the sentiment and foundation for more advanced economic usages later.

[ArticMine]

Right now given the 1 MB blocksize limit issue in Bitcoin and the reality that most other POW coins do not have a solution while Monero does, adaptive limits rather than privacy could actually be the killer application of Monero.

[kelsey]

It's not because I see at least some potential in Monero that I dislike Litecoin, it's that way before Monero ever was even conceived I noticed that Litecoin offered nothing meaningful over Bitcoin aside from experiment and speculative venue. Philosophically, nothing is different with Litecoin over Bitcoin that Bitcoin doesn't already do well. The story with Monero is different because Bitcoin, when I first learned about Bitcoin, was considered anonymous (enough) but really, it's the most transparent method of ledgering.

litecoin has plenty over bitcoin, just one HUGE one for mass adoption. doesn't have an anon dev holding a billion dollar bag. anon dev may be cool in this community but in the real world tis a no brainer to avoid.

[owm123]

Right now given the 1 MB blocksize limit issue in Bitcoin and the reality that most other POW coins do not have a solution while Monero does, adaptive limits rather than privacy could actually be the killer application of Monero.

This is more technical point of view, which off course is also valid. But I really doubt that a regular user, even someone using bitcoins, understands and cares much about things such as blocksize, blockchain, POW, etc. Privacy and anonymity are the only things that most people, even those not using any crypto now, intuitively understand  and can relate to real life scenarios.

[ArticMine]

---
litecoin has plenty over bitcoin, just one HUGE one for mass adoption. doesn't have an anon dev holding a billion dollar bag. anon dev may be cool in this community but in the real world tis a no brainer to avoid.

Yes this is a very valid point; however what is currently tearing the Bitcoin community apart is not Satoshi's coins. The problem facing Bitcoin today is what to do about the 1 MB blocksize limit. Monero has a solution right now, Litecoin does not.

[ArticMine]

Right now given the 1 MB blocksize limit issue in Bitcoin and the reality that most other POW coins do not have a solution while Monero does, adaptive limits rather than privacy could actually be the killer application of Monero.

This is more technical point of view, which off course is also valid. But I really doubt that a regular user, even someone using bitcoins, understands and cares much about things such as blocksize, blockchain, POW, etc. Privacy and anonymity are the only things that most people, even those not using any crypto now, intuitively understand  and can relate to real life scenarios.

They may not understand or care about the technical details. What the will care about is:
1) That the Bitcoin network is limited to approximatly the current transaction rate and cannot grow.
2) That this will manifest in transactions taking a long time, if at all, to confirm (or in laypersons terms "clear").
3) That the cost of using the Bitcoin network will skyrocket.

1) - 3) Will cause venture and or investment capital to run real fast.

Edit: I do agree that the "nerdy" capital will likely flee first.

[owm123]

Right now given the 1 MB blocksize limit issue in Bitcoin and the reality that most other POW coins do not have a solution while Monero does, adaptive limits rather than privacy could actually be the killer application of Monero.

This is more technical point of view, which off course is also valid. But I really doubt that a regular user, even someone using bitcoins, understands and cares much about things such as blocksize, blockchain, POW, etc. Privacy and anonymity are the only things that most people, even those not using any crypto now, intuitively understand  and can relate to real life scenarios.

They may not understand or care about the technical details. What the will care about is:
1) That the Bitcoin network is limited to approximatly the current transaction rate and cannot grow.
2) That this will manifest in transactions taking a long time, if at all, to confirm (or in laypersons terms "clear").
3) That the cost of using the Bitcoin network will skyrocket.

1) - 3) Will cause venture and or investment capital to run real fast.

Edit: I do agree that the "nerdy" capital will likely flee first.

And those issues regular people will understand. And if it starts happening at the level that it hinders using bitcoin, than people will start looking for alternatives.

[ArticMine]

...
And those issues regular people will understand. And if it starts happening at the level that it hinders using bitcoin, than people will start looking for alternatives.

The Bitcoin network is currently running at about 50% of its maximum capacity, without any "stress tests". https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=. So (1) is already happening. My take is that the Bitcoin market has started already to price this in, which is why "good news" is having little effect on the Bitcoin market other than to slow down the gradual decline. If (2) and (3) happen watch out, things could get very ugly.  

[kelsey]

---
litecoin has plenty over bitcoin, just one HUGE one for mass adoption. doesn't have an anon dev holding a billion dollar bag. anon dev may be cool in this community but in the real world tis a no brainer to avoid.

Yes this is a very valid point; however what is currently tearing the Bitcoin community apart is not Satoshi's coins. The problem facing Bitcoin today is what to do about the 1 MB blocksize limit. Monero has a solution right now, Litecoin does not.

well litecoin does have a solution to the none pressing matter this is. in any case the problem tearing the bitcoin community apart has little to do with blocksize.

and this all has next to nothing to do with what joe public would think whichever way the split goes.

[ArticMine]

...
well litecoin does have a solution to the none pressing matter this is. in any case the problem tearing the bitcoin community apart has little to do with blocksize.

and this all has next to nothing to do with what joe public would think whichever way the split goes.

Well at this point we have to agree to disagree.

Those who believe that the 1MB blocksize matter in Bitcoin is a "non pressing matter" and that the problems that the Bitcoin community has are unrelated to the blocksize issue >> Litecoin.
Those who believe that the 1MB blocksize matter in Bitcoin is a "pressing matter" and that the problems that the Bitcoin community has are very much related to the blocksize issue >> Monero.