[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Mike8]

A lot of huge buy orders, 5k xmr sold in on shot, a lot more big trades than usual (well, my usual), ... what happens? What did I miss?

Depends how long you've been out of the game. Here are some possible explanations

1. On github, the release branch is now treated as semi-stable because the development branch is back. This is indicative of the release being sooner than later.

2. On the development branch is the 0MQ implementation. (pls, use google). 0MQ is one of the big ducks to have in the row for more awesomeness down the line (namely, i2p integration - i think. I'm just regurgitating what I read elsewhere).

3. The cryptography wizards did something where the core cryptography in Monero is now aligned / references the true source of the cryptography, as opposed to cryptonote's rendition (I think I got this right. https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/commit/0a4bc84b2f681dfd89b501648f65a951d876e2d8 )

4. Moneromoo continues to do awesomeness

And possibly, the most rationale explanations:

5. Someone got tired of waiting for their order to be filled.

6. Shapeshift had to fill up.

Thanks for the answers.
I already knew of 0MQ for some days, that's not new big news for me. (For me it was new about one week ago).
The release branch is stable for some time too - oh, I so wish an official release... (and please don't tell me to build, it's not the same, at least not for markets)

Point 3 gave me some homework and the rest of the points made me smile.
Thanks

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[binaryFate]

6. Shapeshift had to fill up.

You do have reasonably good intuitions

[fortif78]

Those walls look ridiculous 



Smells like accumulation to me.

[thefunkybits]

Those walls look ridiculous 



Smells like accumulation to me.

dont get too excited.

Ive seen 30K at 0.002 two times in the past week. Both times they've gotten sold down to 0.002 taking out the walls pretty much completely. Maybe "this time its different" though...sure hope so!

[fortif78]

Those walls look ridiculous 

*image cut*

Smells like accumulation to me.

dont get too excited.

Ive seen 30K at 0.002 two times in the past week. Both times they've gotten sold down to 0.002 taking out the walls pretty much completely. Maybe "this time its different" though...sure hope so!

Not excited, just entertained.
You must keep in mind, if the walls are being sold into instead of pulled completely, there is a buyer absorbing those sells at the price level.
It wouldn't surprise me if we did indeed drop back below 0.002, but the price action lately has been somewhat intriguing.

[g4q34g4qg47ww]

Can't imagine who would think it is a good idea to sell near .002 right now, but I certainly I appreciate it    .  Mr Kavasaki~san filing my coffers?  Whomever it is why don't we get a bit more brazen and show what a market maker you are!

[newb4now]

Can't imagine who would think it is a good idea to sell near .002 right now, but I certainly I appreciate it    .  Mr Kavasaki~san filing my coffers?  Whomever it is why don't we get a bit more brazen and show what a market maker you are!

Its hard to guess the intentions of others. Maybe the person is broke and needs to liquidate their position to pay rent.

[QuantumQrack]

Can't imagine who would think it is a good idea to sell near .002 right now, but I certainly I appreciate it    .  Mr Kavasaki~san filing my coffers?  Whomever it is why don't we get a bit more brazen and show what a market maker you are!

Its hard to guess the intentions of others. Maybe the person is broke and needs to liquidate their position to pay rent.

I'll pick some more up at 18

[kazuki49]

to the dumpsters http://webmshare.com/mDZx4

[obit33]

Maybe off topic,

but I once saw a link to a file on google docs with the emission-schemes for bitcoin and monero compared... does anyone know where te find it? I think (excluding the tail emission) almost half of the monero's should be mined soon... Would like to see that file!

thanks in advance,

[dEBRUYNE]

Maybe off topic,

but I once saw a link to a file on google docs with the emission-schemes for bitcoin and monero compared... does anyone know where te find it? I think (excluding the tail emission) almost half of the monero's should be mined soon... Would like to see that file!

thanks in advance,

Here you go -> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit

Credits to luigi1111.

[obit33]

Maybe off topic,

but I once saw a link to a file on google docs with the emission-schemes for bitcoin and monero compared... does anyone know where te find it? I think (excluding the tail emission) almost half of the monero's should be mined soon... Would like to see that file!

thanks in advance,

Here you go -> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit

Credits to luigi1111.

thanks, that was fast, so monday is halving day then... BTC started a very nice move a month after it's halving day (28 november 2012)... also after a long period of relative calm. Let's see what XMR has to offer :-)

[dEBRUYNE]

Maybe off topic,

but I once saw a link to a file on google docs with the emission-schemes for bitcoin and monero compared... does anyone know where te find it? I think (excluding the tail emission) almost half of the monero's should be mined soon... Would like to see that file!

thanks in advance,

Here you go -> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit

Credits to luigi1111.

thanks, that was fast, so monday is halving day then... BTC started a very nice move a month after it's halving day (28 november 2012)... also after a long period of relative calm. Let's see what XMR has to offer :-)

You're welcome. Opposed to Bitcoin, inflation wise nothing really happens with Monero. E.g. inflation of Bitcoin halves from 3600 BTC to 1800 BTC per day, whereas XMR's block reward just smoothly decreases further.

Regarding bolded, Bitcoin doubled a few months before it. Nothing really significant happened after it. I personally think XMR's figurative halving won't have a significant influence on the price.

[Febo]

Maybe off topic,

but I once saw a link to a file on google docs with the emission-schemes for bitcoin and monero compared... does anyone know where te find it? I think (excluding the tail emission) almost half of the monero's should be mined soon... Would like to see that file!

thanks in advance,

Here you go -> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit

Credits to luigi1111.

thanks, that was fast, so monday is halving day then... BTC started a very nice move a month after it's halving day (28 november 2012)... also after a long period of relative calm. Let's see what XMR has to offer :-)

That was a bit different since BTC supply halved from previous day.
Monero supply will halve from first day. And will be just tiny smaller then yesterday.
But it also decrease daily and not stay same for years as is in BTC case.

[pönde]

Maybe off topic,

but I once saw a link to a file on google docs with the emission-schemes for bitcoin and monero compared... does anyone know where te find it? I think (excluding the tail emission) almost half of the monero's should be mined soon... Would like to see that file!

thanks in advance,

Here is the emission curve.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monero_(cryptocurrency)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monero_(cryptocurrency)#/media/File:Monero_coin_supply_and_inflation_over_time.png

At the end of year 2015, the emission starts slightly to decline. At the end of year 2017 it is declining quite fast. So if the demand stays at the current level, the price will go up when the supply declines.

[newb4now]

Maybe off topic,

but I once saw a link to a file on google docs with the emission-schemes for bitcoin and monero compared... does anyone know where te find it? I think (excluding the tail emission) almost half of the monero's should be mined soon... Would like to see that file!

thanks in advance,

Here is the emission curve.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monero_(cryptocurrency)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monero_(cryptocurrency)#/media/File:Monero_coin_supply_and_inflation_over_time.png

At the end of year 2015, the emission starts slightly to decline. At the end of year 2017 it is declining quite fast. So if the demand stays at the current level, the price will go up when the supply declines.

Development will mean much more than the emission curve but everyone here should be happy to be in by "halftime"

[TrueCryptonaire]

Halftime is kind of a milestone.
Soon we will see if Monero will get any meaningful valuation or not.
Soon there is no excuses such as "the emission is too high for any higher price". Emission is not going to be high anymore and if the market cap will not start rising during the coming 1 year, it probably will not rise ever. There will be no momentum and then the scenario which is going to happen most likely will happen and the coin start to decline little by little as the "long time holders" start to empty their plastic bags from coins.
There is not much time for excuses anymore. Until these days we have been able to argue that the emission is high - in my opinion it is not that high anymore and especially as there will be only 100 % more coins to be mined (again, excluded the tail emission),

[smooth]

Halftime is kind of a milestone.
Soon we will see if Monero will get any meaningful valuation or not.
Soon there is no excuses such as "the emission is too high for any higher price". Emission is not going to be high anymore and if the market cap will not start rising during the coming 1 year, it probably will not rise ever. There will be no momentum and then the scenario which is going to happen most likely will happen and the coin start to decline little by little as the "long time holders" start to empty their plastic bags from coins.
There is not much time for excuses anymore. Until these days we have been able to argue that the emission is high - in my opinion it is not that high anymore and especially as there will be only 100 % more coins to be mined (again, excluded the tail emission),

TrueCryptonaire, one of the worst pumpers and FUDers on this thread, is making some sense here.

[jehst]

Halftime is kind of a milestone.
Soon we will see if Monero will get any meaningful valuation or not.
Soon there is no excuses such as "the emission is too high for any higher price". Emission is not going to be high anymore and if the market cap will not start rising during the coming 1 year, it probably will not rise ever. There will be no momentum and then the scenario which is going to happen most likely will happen and the coin start to decline little by little as the "long time holders" start to empty their plastic bags from coins.
There is not much time for excuses anymore. Until these days we have been able to argue that the emission is high - in my opinion it is not that high anymore and especially as there will be only 100 % more coins to be mined (again, excluded the tail emission),

TrueCryptonaire, one of the worst pumpers and FUDers on this thread, is making some sense here.

I don't know. Where's that spreadsheet with XMR's emission compared to bitcoin's? IIRC, it's not until ~2018-2019 that XMR's yearly inflation approaches "low." But "low" is subjective.  I guess "soon" is also subjective. But I think we have years to go.

[smooth]

Halftime is kind of a milestone.
Soon we will see if Monero will get any meaningful valuation or not.
Soon there is no excuses such as "the emission is too high for any higher price". Emission is not going to be high anymore and if the market cap will not start rising during the coming 1 year, it probably will not rise ever. There will be no momentum and then the scenario which is going to happen most likely will happen and the coin start to decline little by little as the "long time holders" start to empty their plastic bags from coins.
There is not much time for excuses anymore. Until these days we have been able to argue that the emission is high - in my opinion it is not that high anymore and especially as there will be only 100 % more coins to be mined (again, excluded the tail emission),

TrueCryptonaire, one of the worst pumpers and FUDers on this thread, is making some sense here.

I don't know. Where's that spreadsheet with XMR's emission compared to bitcoin's? IIRC, it's not until ~2018-2019 that XMR's yearly inflation approaches "low." But "low" is subjective.  I guess "soon" is also subjective. But I think we have years to go.

The spreadsheet comparison with BTC is pretty easy for the block immediately after the halving. Both have emitted half their supply (base supply in the case of XMR) and both have per-block rewards that are half the original rate. It is almost identical, except that in the case of XMR the nominal emissions will continue to decline every block but in the case of BTC you have to wait another 4 years for another drop (though the rate of available supply inflation does decrease in both).

I think its hard to argue once (increasingly) more than half the coins are mined that there are too many coins being mined. Whatever coins you already own will never be diluted by more than 50% for example (in BTC; in XMR they will but only over decades), and that number is declining. You can't really be an early adopter with respect to supply if you are getting in well after that halfway point. This is somewhat psychological and largely subjective, but that's how I see people reacting to it.

Psychologically that probably played a role in Bitcoin's value appreciation around the halving, and also the increasing perception that it is too late to be a Bitcoin early adopter. I've heard this from many people; of course many try to argue the opposite and talk about how there is so much more to do, but the feeling is widely held. You don't see people buying up big stashes of BTC and then going out to actively evangelize the way you did <2013. You see investment and building and speculation, but not the early adopter stuff. That ship has sailed, and you only get one real shot at it.