[XMR] Monero Speculation

[owm123]

It's amazing that Moneroj are selling for 0.47 cents. Anyone reading this post 5 years from now will be wishing so hard they were in our spot.

Or, they will be glad they did not buy it. In 5 years, monero devs can be long gone and the coin be long dead.

jep - in that case they lost 47 cents per coin on a risky invenstment backed by a top-notch technology with the potential to a) fill a niche and b) become a new kind of asset class.....

we all have confirmation biases as well as well as endowment effects over here and I personally think that there are many cryptos, including bitcoin, that are vastly undervalued... but nothing is so oddly priced as monero.

Like with all investments, it may or may not succeed. Time will only tell. But I do agree that monero aims at filling very specific and important void in crypto, anonymity and privacy. Fungability and adaptive block size are additional pluses. But still it does not guarantee a success.

Devs can leave the projects, as life and priorities change over time and can do something else. Investors can leave if the monero price is stagnant for too long, and community can move to the next super hiper new coin.

[1714802830]

1714802830

[nioc]

Being that MoneroDice just completed it's 5th consecutive losing day I just bought more Monero to recoup my investment loss plus a bit more.  Any excuse will do

I used ShapeShift which is super easy.  Just give them my Monero address and send them btc.

[smoothie]

I think the most convincing example of fungability necessity for me was when some bitcoin exchange did not accept bitcoins from someone, because allegedly those bitcoins was connected to some dark market activity.

It's not like money should be fungible for criminal operations, but its a good example when some bitcoins != usual bitcoins. This is impossible with monero.

But those coins can go to mixer and come out a different ones.

Kind of off topic but this thread has been slow so I'll jump in as well.

When the government decides to make it mandatory for business to not accept tainted coins, which it will inevitably will, those that have gotten them even by legal means will lose them. This is the most important aspect of fungability. Using a mixer with good coins right now is as retarded as it gets. If the canary in the coal mine (exchange not accepting tainted coins) was not enough to convince then those that lose deserve to.

The only reason this has not made a bigger splash is because those invested in BTC refuse to propagate the fact their coin is compromised. The writing is on the wall.

You bring up some very important points to consider.

There is a very good possibility that exchanges and merchants that are regulated that accept bitcoin will seize your bitcoin if it is tainted from a previous "hack/scam/theft/etc".

If that were to happen, which I think it will, there would be a scramble to get "clean" coins. Lots of users would be turned off as they would probably be buying coins that are tainted and when they go to cash them out they may have some issues.

But in terms of in person transacting I can't see how this would be an issue at least at first. There could come other scenarios that make in person transactions stray away from accepting tainted coins for transacting.

[smoothie]

... I feel like a majority of the public (sadly) don't and wouldn't really care if their transactions are public...

They will certainly care when merchants stop accepting their non-fungible bitcoins because some algorithm determines they're tainted. Privacy is hardly the issue.

Money that isn't fungible will eventually cannibalize itself.

It hasnt stopped bitcoin to be #1 cryptocurrency. And most people even dont know what fungability means. I myself, for example, have never heard about such a term before getting interested in crypto. Good luck expalining this to people who just want to use crypto, rather than go and read bitcointalk forums, or r/monero or any other such website.

Just because they don't know the word or never hear it is irrelevant as it is all around us everyday. If people accept your fiat paper in a fungible manner (they don't care where it came from) it does matter if one day you went to the grocery store and because your fiat paper has certain serial number on them (making them tainted) they say "sorry sir, we can't accept your money as it was tied to a murder". Many people, including myself, would be pissed and lose faith in the currency if that happened over and over and you cant spend your tainted currency anywhere.


People understand fungibility when it disallows them to spend their currency. The word does not matter and neither does the fact that people don't know the word...they know "I want to spend my fiat/currency and if not I will blow a gasket and lose faith in using that currency".

[smoothie]

I think the most convincing example of fungability necessity for me was when some bitcoin exchange did not accept bitcoins from someone, because allegedly those bitcoins was connected to some dark market activity.

It's not like money should be fungible for criminal operations, but its a good example when some bitcoins != usual bitcoins. This is impossible with monero.

But those coins can go to mixer and come out a different ones.

In the end someone gets screwed even if those coins go to a mixer. The person that gets the tainted coins will have crap luck trying to spend them should sites reject them based on them being tainted.

[nioc]

My take is that the price of Monero will be driven by the long term fundamentals rather than by traders who buy and sell, at a profit or loss, on a 10% spread.

The first indicator will be the market response to the updated official tagged binaries when they come out.

Weird if it happened the same week CK is officially released. What is the estimate on the binaries?

The timetable is here: https://forum.getmonero.org/4/academic-and-technical/303/a-formal-approach-towards-better-hard-fork-management

We'll have to wait a little longer though:
http://fpaste.org/268812/44257030/

"10:13 <@fluffypony> no, we're currently in review-hardfork-code-so-we-dont-break-everything-mode"

I'm still not clear on this.

So the hardfork code is not quite ready.  Does it need to be ready for the new binaries to be released?


Please see below

Yes it has to be ready before the new binaries will be released. It is ready though, it only needs to be reviewed (which I think MoneroMooo is doing). My guess is that it won't take that long, but you never know! Soon™

Furthermore, read the last line -> < moneromooo> I've not looked at this since last weekend though. I have minor extra changes, and I guess I will PR that tomorrow. :-)

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/405

I have no idea if this finalizes the "review" though, but at least it's progress :-P

Pull request 405 just merged into master

... but nothing is so oddly priced as monero.

[chennan]

... I feel like a majority of the public (sadly) don't and wouldn't really care if their transactions are public...

They will certainly care when merchants stop accepting their non-fungible bitcoins because some algorithm determines they're tainted. Privacy is hardly the issue.

Money that isn't fungible will eventually cannibalize itself.

It hasnt stopped bitcoin to be #1 cryptocurrency. And most people even dont know what fungability means. I myself, for example, have never heard about such a term before getting interested in crypto. Good luck expalining this to people who just want to use crypto, rather than go and read bitcointalk forums, or r/monero or any other such website.

Just because they don't know the word or never hear it is irrelevant as it is all around us everyday. If people accept your fiat paper in a fungible manner (they don't care where it came from) it does matter if one day you went to the grocery store and because your fiat paper has certain serial number on them (making them tainted) they say "sorry sir, we can't accept your money as it was tied to a murder". Many people, including myself, would be pissed and lose faith in the currency if that happened over and over and you cant spend your tainted currency anywhere.


People understand fungibility when it disallows them to spend their currency. The word does not matter and neither does the fact that people don't know the word...they know "I want to spend my fiat/currency and if not I will blow a gasket and lose faith in using that currency".

Do banks still have those "booby trap" bags that hold money in case a robber comes in to steal money, the bag will like explode ink all over the bills when the robber pulls them out of the bag when he got home? I can't remember if they still do that or not, but that is the closest example in this case to coins being tainted. And when you see that red ink splatter on the note, no one will accept the bill itself and have lost faith that they will be able to redeem that dollar for any goods or service... Same applies to Bitcoin in some way or another... The block chain is like a built in "booby trap" for sketchy dealings or people stealing coins.

[futureofbitcoin]

Does USD have fungibility problems? CAD? EUR? JPY? RMB?

They have serial numbers on them. Theoretically you can say "this serial number is now worthless". But they are working currencies. People trust them.

I think bitcoin's fungibility is a much smaller issue than people in this thread are led to believe.

[obit33]

Does USD have fungibility problems? CAD? EUR? JPY? RMB?

They have serial numbers on them. Theoretically you can say "this serial number is now worthless". But they are working currencies. People trust them.

I think bitcoin's fungibility is a much smaller issue than people in this thread are led to believe.

don't think so, when one uses bitcoins it always is 'registered' in the network, these bitcoins can be blaclisted from a distance the moment they're being used, even before they are used... not so with paper currency where use isn't automatically registered (aka, the serial number isn't automatically scanned and registered somewhere)...

[binaryFate]

Does USD have fungibility problems? CAD? EUR? JPY? RMB?

Nope. Why? See following point.

They have serial numbers on them. Theoretically you can say "this serial number is now worthless". But they are working currencies. People trust them.

You are forced by law to accept all notes.
Otherwise it would break fungibility. This has been the case all over the world in various financial systems, since this famous case:
http://www.paybits.net/blog/why-fungibility-matters/

Fungibility of money can be enforced by law only in a centralized monetary system. Bitcoin isn't centralized, there is nobody enforcing fungibility by law. It's possible for everyone to define their own rules, analyse and trace everything they wish, point the fingers to coins, transactions and merchants accepting or refusing them.

Thus, in a decentralized monetary system the only way to have fungibility is through privacy. (It applies to the physical world as well: if all gold historical ownership was known to everyone - with a simple internet connection! - gold fungibility would be broken instantly. Its fungibility comes from that it doesn't convey its own history with itself).

[binaryFate]

I think bitcoin's fungibility is a much smaller issue than people in this thread are led to believe.

Coinbase closing accounts because it notices people gamble isn't worrying to you?

Btc-e blocking and seizing the funds that were known (despite some mixing) to come from a darkmarket theft isn't worrying to you?

The broadly-advertised way to provide privacy and fungibility to Bitcoin: the "coinjoin" market, where you pay to clean your coins^[1] and get paid for clean ones, breaking badly the very definition of fungibility. That isn't worrying to you?

If you know how Bitcoin works, you know there is no reason for this list not to expand in the future. We're not talking LE yet, because they're (still) lagging behind in terms of knowledge and know how.
Heck, even zhoutong got caught recently with funds from the Bitcoinica theft. At that time everybody was screaming "private, anonymous internet money!", now we just improved the tools to analyze the blockchain. Bitcoin hasn't changed at all; all this could have been foreseen! But certainly not by people who, by then, gave the same kind of delusional remark as your remark above.


^[1] In fact you're likely to end up with coins that are more tainted that your original ones. All the bad guys will be there.

[dEBRUYNE]

... I feel like a majority of the public (sadly) don't and wouldn't really care if their transactions are public...

They will certainly care when merchants stop accepting their non-fungible bitcoins because some algorithm determines they're tainted. Privacy is hardly the issue.

Money that isn't fungible will eventually cannibalize itself.

It hasnt stopped bitcoin to be #1 cryptocurrency. And most people even dont know what fungability means. I myself, for example, have never heard about such a term before getting interested in crypto. Good luck expalining this to people who just want to use crypto, rather than go and read bitcointalk forums, or r/monero or any other such website.

Just because they don't know the word or never hear it is irrelevant as it is all around us everyday. If people accept your fiat paper in a fungible manner (they don't care where it came from) it does matter if one day you went to the grocery store and because your fiat paper has certain serial number on them (making them tainted) they say "sorry sir, we can't accept your money as it was tied to a murder". Many people, including myself, would be pissed and lose faith in the currency if that happened over and over and you cant spend your tainted currency anywhere.


People understand fungibility when it disallows them to spend their currency. The word does not matter and neither does the fact that people don't know the word...they know "I want to spend my fiat/currency and if not I will blow a gasket and lose faith in using that currency".

In addition: https://blog.blocktrail.com/2015/07/announcing-blocktrail-mint-fresh-bitcoin-delivered-from-the-mines/

Furthermore, they also "tag" your transactions already. See for example -> https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/address/14CYLszcPs195hvZzjsgU5kYgy4QkiN9Vv (credits to dnaleor)

[canth]

I think the most convincing example of fungability necessity for me was when some bitcoin exchange did not accept bitcoins from someone, because allegedly those bitcoins was connected to some dark market activity.

It's not like money should be fungible for criminal operations, but its a good example when some bitcoins != usual bitcoins. This is impossible with monero.

But those coins can go to mixer and come out a different ones.

In the end someone gets screwed even if those coins go to a mixer. The person that gets the tainted coins will have crap luck trying to spend them should sites reject them based on them being tainted.

If someone doesn't accept tainted coins but others do that'll make a market where 'clean' coins go for higher prices and 'dirty' coins go for lower prices. Arbitragers who don't care about fungibility due to geographic location or use case will tighten the market. While that's not a good thing for Bitcoin, I don't see it as a tremendous problem for it to overcome. Don't get me wrong - fungibility is important, I just see that the markets will sort some of these issues out.

Privacy on the other hand can't be solved by market solutions, at least not ones that I'm aware of.

[futureofbitcoin]

Does USD have fungibility problems? CAD? EUR? JPY? RMB?

Nope. Why? See following point.

They have serial numbers on them. Theoretically you can say "this serial number is now worthless". But they are working currencies. People trust them.

You are forced by law to accept all notes.
Otherwise it would break fungibility. This has been the case all over the world in various financial systems, since this famous case:
http://www.paybits.net/blog/why-fungibility-matters/

Fungibility of money can be enforced by law only in a centralized monetary system. Bitcoin isn't centralized, there is nobody enforcing fungibility by law. It's possible for everyone to define their own rules, analyse and trace everything they wish, point the fingers to coins, transactions and merchants accepting or refusing them.

Thus, in a decentralized monetary system the only way to have fungibility is through privacy. (It applies to the physical world as well: if all gold historical ownership was known to everyone - with a simple internet connection! - gold fungibility would be broken instantly. Its fungibility comes from that it doesn't convey its own history with itself).

See, the problem with your logic, is that you're only looking at it one way.

There's no central authority to enforce laws saying "you must accept all bitcoins". Similarly, there is no central authority saying "You can't accept these bitcoins".

How is blacklisting of coins going to be enforced? It won't be. People can't even agree on the blocksize.

Coinbase closing accounts because it notices people gamble isn't worrying to you?

Nope, and I can assure you that the VAST majority of the world doesn't care either. It doesn't matter whether it's "right" to care or not; what matters is whether people ACTUALLY cares.

[kazuki49]

Does USD have fungibility problems? CAD? EUR? JPY? RMB?

Nope. Why? See following point.

They have serial numbers on them. Theoretically you can say "this serial number is now worthless". But they are working currencies. People trust them.

You are forced by law to accept all notes.
Otherwise it would break fungibility. This has been the case all over the world in various financial systems, since this famous case:
http://www.paybits.net/blog/why-fungibility-matters/

Fungibility of money can be enforced by law only in a centralized monetary system. Bitcoin isn't centralized, there is nobody enforcing fungibility by law. It's possible for everyone to define their own rules, analyse and trace everything they wish, point the fingers to coins, transactions and merchants accepting or refusing them.

Thus, in a decentralized monetary system the only way to have fungibility is through privacy. (It applies to the physical world as well: if all gold historical ownership was known to everyone - with a simple internet connection! - gold fungibility would be broken instantly. Its fungibility comes from that it doesn't convey its own history with itself).

See, the problem with your logic, is that you're only looking at it one way.

There's no central authority to enforce laws saying "you must accept all bitcoins". Similarly, there is no central authority saying "You can't accept these bitcoins".

How is blacklisting of coins going to be enforced? It won't be. People can't even agree on the blocksize.

Coinbase closing accounts because it notices people gamble isn't worrying to you?

Nope, and I can assure you that the VAST majority of the world doesn't care either. It doesn't matter whether it's "right" to care or not; what matters is whether people ACTUALLY cares.

You don't get it, you think every player is good, some WILL enforce all kinds of weird blacklists and since there is no law (yet) you can't do anything about it, thats where live the danger, bitcoin has no future as transfer of wealth.

[nioc]

Trip Report

I just purchased Monero with fiat using AltQuick for the first time.   https://www.altquick.co/buy-2.php

The liquidity usually isn't great near the market price and they charge 2%.  But you do get to use old fashioned cash to buy newfangled cash.  Also the way I was purchasing monero with btc cost me at least 1.25% so not bad for me.

1) select an order, all they require is an email address
2) deposit cash in seller's account
3) scan receipt and send to the AltQuick link.
4) wait a few hours to receive your fungible fun.

I now await the delivery of mine.  They say within 3 hrs.

[shanem]

XMR below 0.002 is a great buy. I think that this is just a flash crash and XMR will consolidate at 0.002 support.

[akaman]

XMR below 0.002 is a great buy. I think that this is just a flash crash and XMR will consolidate at 0.002 support.

That was a great opportunity! I'm quite pissed I missed the fun action... There's still plenty of cheap XMR to be had though. I'm guessing XMR will hover at around 202-205 the rest of the day.

[binaryFate]

See, the problem with your logic, is that you're only looking at it one way.

There's no central authority to enforce laws saying "you must accept all bitcoins". Similarly, there is no central authority saying "You can't accept these bitcoins".

How is blacklisting of coins going to be enforced? It won't be. People can't even agree on the blocksize.

I think you miss the point, in that you apply a view inehrited of "good old" centralized systems, and believe there should be a ruling of some sort or at least a general consensus on this issue to actually endanger fungibility.

Fact: Some coins are already less (or more) valuable than others, without anybody ruling it should be the case. See also joinmarket. How do you reconcile that these facts exist, with your current view?

I'll tell you why:
In a decentralized system, you don't need people to "agree" to enforce (or weaken) fungibility.
Everybody is free to apply its own judgement. Its a judgement from the crowd to the crowd.
Everybody is potentially under social pressure, as when btc-e froze that 1M$ that came from the darmarket theft: everybody could know the taint: btc-e decided that it was better for them, in the clear view of all, to block those coins rather than allowing trades.

On a side note, what governement and tax authorities can do better than blacklisting is whitelisting. Or even easier, asking you to declare the origin of your crypto assets, then checking that blockchain observations don't contradict your declarations.

[Undead-Fobos]

I need help!
When you open the wallet writes:

2015-Sep-23 23:44:30.742686 bitmonero v0.8.8.6-release
2015-Sep-23 23:44:30.748687 Module folder: bitmonerod.exe
2015-Sep-23 23:44:30.751687 Initializing P2P server...
2015-Sep-23 23:44:39.120166 ERROR C:/bitmonero/src/p2p/net_node.inl:128 Exception at [node_server::init_config], what=input stream error
2015-Sep-23 23:44:39.121166 ERROR C:/bitmonero/src/p2p/net_node.inl:289 Failed to init config.
2015-Sep-23 23:44:39.121166 ERROR C:/bitmonero/src/daemon/daemon.cpp:239 Failed to initialize P2P server.
2015-Sep-23 23:44:39.121166 Mining has been stopped, 0 finished