[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

Liquidity has come back. That is what I like to see. My general expectation is for USD Price floor to rise inversely as block reward declines, until DNM adoption increases currency use.  Being the most liquid privacy-enabled coin in the universe makes the selection of XMR a no-brainer.

The base block reward at the moment is 9.004
When is "halving day"?

I was a bit more patient this time and was able to buy a few more bricks under 230, 212>228.  This completes my basic Monero house.  I speculate that it will be very unlikely to be able to purchase any appreciable amount under 230 in the future.  I would like to build additions to my house but that will have to wait a bit.

I am currently at my mountain house and for the first time I have internet access for my phone
I have no doubt that both technology and Monero will continue to improve such that using Monero in any way will be easy.

[luigi1111]

Liquidity has come back. That is what I like to see. My general expectation is for USD Price floor to rise inversely as block reward declines, until DNM adoption increases currency use.  Being the most liquid privacy-enabled coin in the universe makes the selection of XMR a no-brainer.

The base block reward at the moment is 9.004
When is "halving day"?

According to my spreadsheet, it's Sept. 7th, 2015.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=sharing

[bitebits]

Liquidity has come back. That is what I like to see. My general expectation is for USD Price floor to rise inversely as block reward declines, until DNM adoption increases currency use.  Being the most liquid privacy-enabled coin in the universe makes the selection of XMR a no-brainer.

The base block reward at the moment is 9.004
When is "halving day"?

According to my spreadsheet, it's Sept. 7th, 2015.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=sharing

Awesome spreadsheet, thanks for sharing!

Can I make the suggestion to change the date format? 9/7/2015 reads like the 9th of July 2015, but you mean the 7th of September 2015.
So YYYYMMDD or DDMMYYYY would be less confusing then the current MMDDYYYY

[aerbax]

...
Awesome spreadsheet, thanks for sharing!

Can I make the suggestion to change the date format? 9/7/2015 reads like the 9th of July 2015, but you mean the 7th of September 2015.
So YYYYMMDD or DDMMYYYY would be less confusing then the current MMDDYYYY

Agreed.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_8601 FTW

[luigi1111]

...
Awesome spreadsheet, thanks for sharing!

Can I make the suggestion to change the date format? 9/7/2015 reads like the 9th of July 2015, but you mean the 7th of September 2015.
So YYYYMMDD or DDMMYYYY would be less confusing then the current MMDDYYYY

Agreed.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_8601 FTW

FINE.

[newb4now]

Nice spreadsheet. I do like the gradual decrease in mining rewards. Block halvings seem old school

...
Awesome spreadsheet, thanks for sharing!

Can I make the suggestion to change the date format? 9/7/2015 reads like the 9th of July 2015, but you mean the 7th of September 2015.
So YYYYMMDD or DDMMYYYY would be less confusing then the current MMDDYYYY

Agreed.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_8601 FTW

FINE.
[/quote

[aminorex]

My general expectation is for USD Price floor to rise inversely as block reward declines

This is correct.

But DNM's likely will stick to BTC out of inertia. Most DNM busts have nothing to do with blockchain analysis. It's all sting vendors and controlled deliveries.

The reward factoring may be a wee optimistic, as global energy priced in USD declines.  I suspect recent BTC repricing was mosttly attributable, and the bfx margin calls merely symptomatic.

"Most", however, is telling.  It wouldn't take more than one, strategic, bust to start a stampede. And it has already been a factor in some. And it will inevitably be a factor in many more.

Similarly, a prominent Chinese execution for economic crimes in the form of blockchain-based capital control violations, if it occurred in close proximity to even momentary public awareness of XMR could suffice to redirect some relatively large flows.

That this sort of thing has not already become a significant valuation factor can be explained:  Firstly, there are just too many entrenched alternatives in place for evading capital controls, albeit accessible only to large established players, and execution rates quite low for crimes associated with adequate stealth and wealth to make bribery feasible.  Secondly, the appeal of the channel depends on liquidity, a bootstrapping problem, and so much as access to liquidity is mediated by BTC the benefits for avoiding vulnerability to blockchain analysis lack credible, pragmatic value.

[jehst]

That this sort of thing has not already become a significant valuation factor can be explained:  Firstly, there are just too many entrenched alternatives in place for evading capital controls, albeit accessible only to large established players, and execution rates quite low for crimes associated with adequate stealth and wealth to make bribery feasible.  Secondly, the appeal of the channel depends on liquidity, a bootstrapping problem, and so much as access to liquidity is mediated by BTC the benefits for avoiding vulnerability to blockchain analysis lack credible, pragmatic value.

Another thing is that it's already beyond law enforcement's capability to follow BTC if someone moves it between exchanges. The exchange hot wallets act as mixers. It's much easier to follow money in bank accounts before they hit the exchange.  

Also, even middle class people in China can get money to HK pretty easily. And from HK, it can go anywhere. There are people that stand outside all the banks in a major city offering gray market money services. I was a foreigner and it didn't take me long to figure it out.

China will really have to come down hard on people for the situation to change. As you said, possibly executions will be necessary to motivate people to seek alternatives such as XMR.

[americanpegasus]

China will really have to come down hard on people for the situation to change. As you said, possibly executions will be necessary to motivate people to seek alternatives such as XMR.

 
 
I think the bigger issue is fungibility instead of just trying to hide assets.  Financial privacy is really just a side effect of true fungibility. 
 
The current situation with bitcoin is like trying to use original paintings as currency.  Each has a very different history and even exchanges can blackball entire groups of coins based on their history.  The very possibility could lead to legislation that mandates such actions "in the name of the greater good".  Obviously not suitable as a world-wide currency. 
 
As far as incentives?  You have maybe a million people who use bitcoin, and 6.998 billion who do not.  You will be able to convert some of the bitcoin crowd, but this isn't our sole focus.  We really want to speak to those who have yet to own any cryptocurrency and make it clear that owning Monero is their best option.

[binaryFate]

Financial privacy is really just a side effect of true fungibility. 

It's more than that. In a decentralized system where fungibility isn't enforced by law but is instead a property freely emerging from anyone's opinion, the *only* way to achieve fungibility is through sufficient privacy.

Financial privacy is the only way to obtain fungibility in decentralized cryptocurrencies.
It's a much stronger relationship than a mere correlation between the two: it's a causality/requirement relationship, plain and simple.

[aminorex]

Financial privacy is really just a side effect of true fungibility. 

It's more than that. In a decentralized system where fungibility isn't enforced by law but is instead a property freely emerging from anyone's opinion, the *only* way to achieve fungibility is through sufficient privacy.

Financial privacy is the only way to obtain fungibility in decentralized cryptocurrencies.
It's a much stronger relationship than a mere correlation between the two: it's a causality/requirement relationship, plain and simple.

Yes.  In the protest march, our chants will be:

"No fungibility /
without financial privacy." 

"What do we want?  / " Cryptographic property guarantees!" / "When do we want it?" / "After open-source peer review!"

and:

"Hey hey, ho ho, /
capital controls have got to go."

[americanpegasus]

[binaryFate]

Yes.  In the protest march, our chants will be:

"No fungibility /
without financial privacy." 

"What do we want?  / " Cryptographic property guarantees!" / "When do we want it?" / "After open-source peer review!"

and:

"Hey hey, ho ho, /
capital controls have got to go."

Love it, I could hear the crowd reading it. 

[smooth]

Deleted one post from kenji because it was written in red and one quoting reply to it

When I am speaking as the moderator, and only then, I will write in red. Other messages using red are not permitted.

[americanpegasus]

everyone that buys monero above 0.002 is a fucking damn idiot

I don't even look at the price much these days.  I check it every few days and think, "Huh, that's neat" but don't stress.
 
Buying Monero at any price less than $1 is like getting it for free.  Less than $10 is a great deal in the long term.  And in the really long term, anything less than $100 to $1000 is also cheap.
 
You are literally buying control of a piece of the first private, digital, decentralized ledger in the history of human civilization.  This is no time for me to be worried about scraping satoshis off a purchase price.

[jehst]

everyone that buys monero above 0.002 is a fucking damn idiot

I don't even look at the price much these days.  I check it every few days and think, "Huh, that's neat" but don't stress.
 
Buying Monero at any price less than $1 is like getting it for free.  Less than $10 is a great deal in the long term.  And in the really long term, anything less than $100 to $1000 is also cheap.
 
You are literally buying control of a piece of the first private, digital, decentralized ledger in the history of human civilization.  This is no time for me to be worried about scraping satoshis off a purchase price.

How do you keep your energy so high? I love crypto but this has been a brutal 1-2 years.

Any tips?

[TrueCryptonaire]

everyone that buys monero above 0.002 is a fucking damn idiot

I don't even look at the price much these days.  I check it every few days and think, "Huh, that's neat" but don't stress.
 
Buying Monero at any price less than $1 is like getting it for free.  Less than $10 is a great deal in the long term.  And in the really long term, anything less than $100 to $1000 is also cheap.
 
You are literally buying control of a piece of the first private, digital, decentralized ledger in the history of human civilization.  This is no time for me to be worried about scraping satoshis off a purchase price.

I agree each letter in this post.
Despite everything you wrote is pretty much obvious, still the majority ignores it and that is the reason why the majority will not become rich in this. However, I hope the majority will end up at least middle class in this ride. 

[americanpegasus]

How do you keep your energy so high? I love crypto but this has been a brutal 1-2 years.

Any tips?

 
 
Winning in a closed game is necessarily difficult.  Not everyone will be able to do it. 
 
The frustrating thing is that we ultimately we don't exist in a closed game.... at least not for many eons.  The universe is an open game where every human can be extraordinarily "wealthy".  And crypto is one of the key tools which can drive us there, but people with vision will have to win this "closed game" first so we can get to the next part... the good part. 
 
I have other passions in my life besides crypto, but I keep coming back because I know a paradigm-shift when I see it.  We just had the misfortune of really getting into crypto right as the valley of adoption was getting started.  Hang in there, a tsunami is building off the coast.  And when it arrives there won't be time to get inland.

[americanpegasus]

I agree each letter in this post.
Despite everything you wrote is pretty much obvious, still the majority ignores it and that is the reason why the majority will not become rich in this. However, I hope the majority will end up at least middle class in this ride. 

 
 
Global resources would easily support a system where all humans earn a modest living wage, and then depending on talent and willingness to work they could earn a commensurate salary: it's the ideal mix between socialism and capitalism.  The most talented and hardest working humans deserve to earn very high salaries while no one deserves to go hungry/sick.  I think this is something that we can all agree on, and I also believe that giving every human something of value that can be *lost* should they resort to violence and crime is also a powerful motivator that will see crime rates plummet. 
 
The only problem with this ideal meritocracy is the canvas of global politics and money which basically makes it impossible.  Crypto is the hot razor that will slice right through that untearable fabric and help build a world that operates on a level that makes this one looks like the stone age. 
 
In the big picture?  This isn't about the rich and poor.... we're trying to escape any of the thousand catastrophes which could wipe out sentience here at any moment.  The critical mass of intelligence on this planet has been reached, and either we will ignite a form of conscious fusion, or we will implode back into the nothingness from whence we emerged. 
 
Wouldn't it be neat if Monero really is one of those crucial molecules on the path to where we're going?

[kazuki49]

Wouldn't it be neat if Monero really is one of those crucial molecules on the path to where we're going?

Monero will have succeed if it ends like this:



mind you it is better than the Bitcoin wealth distribution, a graph well hidden by its community (Risto was one of the few that tried to approach this subject), the luck of having Monero distributed in a time crypto is "widely known" is that it will end better distributed than Bitcoin. The 1% eternal emission puts a lot more "fairness" in the big picture than any other controversial plan, it should incentivise spending and make sure Monero is never ridiculously expensive like 100,000 per XMR unless it becomes ridiculously successful.