[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dreamspark]

Agree that ETH is definitely taking a huge chunk of the XMR trade atm.

One look at the order book tells you that. All my funds are off Polo atm as I don't feel comfortable holding funds there atm.

Unfortunately this means that we'll probably continue to sell off, something that I dont think would have happened without ETH coming along.

This bit of price discovery will be interesting. Volume up was alot more than this volume down so there are plenty of people sitting under water, it all depends if they are going to protect their buys or cut losses. Time will tell.

[1714719384]

1714719384

[TrueCryptonaire]

I would not be worried even if we go lower than the lower bound of the trendline.
Especially if we stay above the previous lows, we still are able to maintain a bull market but then it is simply slower than our current channel suggests.
I do not mind these dumps, I hope there will be more like this.

ETH looks so strong that it is unlikely it will fail. There are simply too many btc in bids - however I doubt the buyers are the smartest people as they market buys 10-30 btc at one shoot driving the price up and making the lending market dry as Sahara and TrueCryptonaire is happy with almost 2 % daily interest payments. 

[dEBRUYNE]

Agree that ETH is definitely taking a huge chunk of the XMR trade atm.

One look at the order book tells you that. All my funds are off Polo atm as I don't feel comfortable holding funds there atm.

The orderbook for ETH is just insane, 1500+ BTC on the bid side and volume over 7k. I bet a lot of people are on margin and when this thing goes south some will get burned hard. Bear in mind that this has been going on since 0.0025, so it's around x3 now which is in no way sustainable.

Good call at keeping your funds off polo. I've read nothing about socialized losses or something and in general altcoins are very illiquid, so this might end bed. However, poloniex has maintenance margin if I recall correctly, which might mitigate some of the risk.

Regarding maintenance margin:

Maintenance Margin: Your maintenance margin is the percentage of the total value you have borrowed that you must keep in your margin account to avoid a forced liquidation. For example, suppose you have 1.5 BTC in your margin account, and your maintenance margin is 20%. Borrowing 3 BTC, you open a long position in the XMR market. Now, in order to avoid a forced liquidation, the net value of your margin account must remain above 20% of 3 BTC — 0.6 BTC. If the price of XMR starts declining, the amount of BTC you can get by selling the XMR you just purchased diminishes, and you start to incur a loss, as reflected in your P/L. If the amount of this loss, together with the lending fees you owe, reaches 0.9 BTC, the net value of your margin account will be 0.6 BTC (1.5 BTC minus 0.9 BTC in unrealized losses). If this happens, one or more of your positions will be closed automatically to prevent further loss and ensure you do not default on your loans.

Unfortunately this means that we'll probably continue to sell off, something that I dont think would have happened without ETH coming along.

This bit of price discovery will be interesting. Volume up was alot more than this volume down so there are plenty of people sitting under water, it all depends if they are going to protect their buys or cut losses. Time will tell.

I certainly agree on the bolded part. I think sitting under water isn't really bothering most people, since most were under water for a long time (remember the bearmarket from Aug until January). Furthermore, I think every XMR trader that wanted to ride the ETH wave would've sold off by now, so I expect the volatility to dwindle and less violent dumps. I sincerely hope that 0.0021 will hold though, otherwise we might see a retest of 0.0018 or even lower.

PS: It seems like every other coin on polo is basically down today, whereas ETH is going up.

[dEBRUYNE]

I would not be worried even if we go lower than the lower bound of the trendline.
Especially if we stay above the previous lows, we still are able to maintain a bull market but then it is simply slower than our current channel suggests.
I do not mind these dumps, I hope there will be more like this.

ETH looks so strong that it is unlikely it will fail. There are simply too many btc in bids - however I doubt the buyers are the smartest people as they market buys 10-30 btc at one shoot driving the price up and making the lending market dry as Sahara and TrueCryptonaire is happy with almost 2 % daily interest payments. 

Bids can easily be removed and asks can easily be added. A rational trader shouldn't really look at the orderbook, because it's the #1 instrument to fool people.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I would not be worried even if we go lower than the lower bound of the trendline.
Especially if we stay above the previous lows, we still are able to maintain a bull market but then it is simply slower than our current channel suggests.
I do not mind these dumps, I hope there will be more like this.

ETH looks so strong that it is unlikely it will fail. There are simply too many btc in bids - however I doubt the buyers are the smartest people as they market buys 10-30 btc at one shoot driving the price up and making the lending market dry as Sahara and TrueCryptonaire is happy with almost 2 % daily interest payments. 

Bids can easily be removed and asks can easily be added. A rational trader shouldn't really look at the orderbook, because it's the #1 instrument to fool people.

While I agree the orderbook is the cheapest way to fool people with pulling off bids/asks, I disagree with the fact that a rational investor shouldn't look at them.
There are at least two reasons why a rational investor should look at the orderbooks.

1) Game theoretic approach. If there are at least some "fools" who are getting fooled by the orderbooks, their actions make it smart to observe the orderbook.

2) The bids and asks are real - you can anytime make a sharp move and buy/sell into the asks/bids and then even the most fake wall becomes a real wall. Therefore holding fake orders is risky business as they get sometimes filled.

[dEBRUYNE]

I would not be worried even if we go lower than the lower bound of the trendline.
Especially if we stay above the previous lows, we still are able to maintain a bull market but then it is simply slower than our current channel suggests.
I do not mind these dumps, I hope there will be more like this.

ETH looks so strong that it is unlikely it will fail. There are simply too many btc in bids - however I doubt the buyers are the smartest people as they market buys 10-30 btc at one shoot driving the price up and making the lending market dry as Sahara and TrueCryptonaire is happy with almost 2 % daily interest payments.  

Bids can easily be removed and asks can easily be added. A rational trader shouldn't really look at the orderbook, because it's the #1 instrument to fool people.

While I agree the orderbook is the cheapest way to fool people with pulling off bids/asks, I disagree with the fact that a rational investor shouldn't look at them.
There are at least two reasons why a rational investor should look at the orderbooks.

1) Game theoretic approach. If there are at least some "fools" who are getting fooled by the orderbooks, their actions make it smart to observe the orderbook.

2) The bids and asks are real - you can anytime make a sharp move and buy/sell into the asks/bids and then even the most fake wall becomes a real wall. Therefore holding fake orders is risky business as they get sometimes filled.

I admit you brought up some solid arguments here and thus I revise my statement. In addition I would like to add that most of the fake bids/asks are often put up far away from the market, which makes them influenceable but quite difficult to buy/sell into.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I would not be worried even if we go lower than the lower bound of the trendline.
Especially if we stay above the previous lows, we still are able to maintain a bull market but then it is simply slower than our current channel suggests.
I do not mind these dumps, I hope there will be more like this.

ETH looks so strong that it is unlikely it will fail. There are simply too many btc in bids - however I doubt the buyers are the smartest people as they market buys 10-30 btc at one shoot driving the price up and making the lending market dry as Sahara and TrueCryptonaire is happy with almost 2 % daily interest payments.  

Bids can easily be removed and asks can easily be added. A rational trader shouldn't really look at the orderbook, because it's the #1 instrument to fool people.

While I agree the orderbook is the cheapest way to fool people with pulling off bids/asks, I disagree with the fact that a rational investor shouldn't look at them.
There are at least two reasons why a rational investor should look at the orderbooks.

1) Game theoretic approach. If there are at least some "fools" who are getting fooled by the orderbooks, their actions make it smart to observe the orderbook.

2) The bids and asks are real - you can anytime make a sharp move and buy/sell into the asks/bids and then even the most fake wall becomes a real wall. Therefore holding fake orders is risky business as they get sometimes filled.

I admit you brought up some solid arguments here and thus I revise my statement. In addition I would like to add that most of the fake bids/asks are often put up far away from the market, which makes them influenceable but quite difficult to buy/sell into.

That's true. A fake buy/sell order has to be far enough not to be executed but not too far to be ignored as meaningless. That's the tricky part here - how far to set a fake order. Especially if the other participants are aware of an opportunity of a fake order.

However, in ETH the large buy-orders are pretty close to market value (only a few per cent drop in a price means you need to dump more than 100 btc worth of ETHs), so those orders are not most likely fakes.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like we might have an opportunity soon to buy Moneros around 0.0018... However, it is possible we will not be able to do so also.
I think a lot of the selling pressure is thanks to closing long positions as the lending rates have skyrocketed while Monero seems to have some bearishness.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like we might have an opportunity soon to buy Moneros around 0.0018... However, it is possible we will not be able to do so also.

By the way, it looks like it might rain today. However, it is also possible that it will not do so.

Let me put it other way:

It looks like the probability to reach 0.0018 has increased thanks to dumps taking place in Poloniex.
That doesn't mean we will reach 0.0018 - there is the contra probability of not reaching it and it is greater than 0.

[rpietila]

2) The bids and asks are real - you can anytime make a sharp move and buy/sell into the asks/bids and then even the most fake wall becomes a real wall. Therefore holding fake orders is risky business as they get sometimes filled.

Fake orders have the similar risk profile as shorting or leverage - most often even if your "fake" wall gets bought, you can buy back cheaper as the price will fall down afterwards and you have got 10% or whatever premium for your coins, allowing you to buy back lower. But there is the chance that it happens as part of a level-up, in which case you lose out of these coins.

So, "fake" walls can become real walls if the strategy is formulated as:
"I will buy it back if I get at least 10% cheaper, if not, it will be a permanent partial cash out of my long term position."

This strategy gives you peace of mind when operating large fake walls.

I wonder why I know it 

[TPTB_need_war]

This strategy gives you peace of mind when operating large fake walls.

I wonder why I know it 

Lol. 

[primer-]

So, "fake" walls can become real walls if the strategy is formulated as:
"I will buy it back if I get at least 10% cheaper, if not, it will be a permanent partial cash out of my long term position."

This strategy gives you peace of mind when operating large fake walls.

I wonder why I know it 

Now would be a good time to start buying so eth traders take notice... 

[TrueCryptonaire]

So, "fake" walls can become real walls if the strategy is formulated as:
"I will buy it back if I get at least 10% cheaper, if not, it will be a permanent partial cash out of my long term position."

This strategy gives you peace of mind when operating large fake walls.

I wonder why I know it 

Now would be a good time to start buying so eth traders take notice... 

While I agree it is time to buy I try to fish some dumps.
There might be some delicious sells coming to markets especially as we broke the lower bound of the trend we had for long time.

[dreamspark]

So, "fake" walls can become real walls if the strategy is formulated as:
"I will buy it back if I get at least 10% cheaper, if not, it will be a permanent partial cash out of my long term position."

This strategy gives you peace of mind when operating large fake walls.

I wonder why I know it 

Now would be a good time to start buying so eth traders take notice... 

While I agree it is time to buy I try to fish some dumps.
There might be some delicious sells coming to markets especially as we broke the lower bound of the trend we had for long time.

Im not sure Id call it broken, wicking through a trend line but closing above shows that there is support there and the trendline stays in tact. Thats why you see many people discount wicks when they draw their trendlines.

[gaba]

So, "fake" walls can become real walls if the strategy is formulated as:
"I will buy it back if I get at least 10% cheaper, if not, it will be a permanent partial cash out of my long term position."

This strategy gives you peace of mind when operating large fake walls.

I wonder why I know it 

Now would be a good time to start buying so eth traders take notice... 

In my opinion he is waiting to dump. Always good strategy with XMR.

[dEBRUYNE]

So, "fake" walls can become real walls if the strategy is formulated as:
"I will buy it back if I get at least 10% cheaper, if not, it will be a permanent partial cash out of my long term position."

This strategy gives you peace of mind when operating large fake walls.

I wonder why I know it 

Now would be a good time to start buying so eth traders take notice... 

In my opinion he is waiting to dump. Always good strategy with XMR.

What kind of FUD is this? I think rpietila is one of the most transparent people w.r.t. his actions.

[jwinterm]

Total buy orders getting pretty low on poloniex. Maybe people getting ready to put coins on Cryptsy market? Maybe people jumping in the ETH fray? Maybe interest just waning?

[dEBRUYNE]

Total buy orders getting pretty low on poloniex. Maybe people getting ready to put coins on Cryptsy market? Maybe people jumping in the ETH fray? Maybe interest just waning?

I sincerely think it's the bolded part. I guess we'll just have to wait until the ETH storm calms down a bit. We have a nice hammer on the daily chart though, which mostly signs a bullish reversal.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Have you checked Kickstarter?
There is a possibility to set a project and people can contribute to it.

Monero could be explained there and taken donations against which a donor will receive some Moneros + wallet key in mymonero.

A good and easy to understand summary of Monero project is needed there and just a goal for reaching.
Perhaps 100 000 usd? Imagine what this could make for the marketcap if we get some new users from there?

[rangedriver]

Have you checked Kickstarter?
There is a possibility to set a project and people can contribute to it.

Monero could be explained there and taken donations against which a donor will receive some Moneros + wallet key in mymonero.

A good and easy to understand summary of Monero project is needed there and just a goal for reaching.
Perhaps 100 000 usd? Imagine what this could make for the marketcap if we get some new users from there?

If you're gonna do that then use StartJoin, not Kickstarter.