[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

The tail emission in Monero makes it mathematically impossible for Monero to be x% mined in y years.. 

[jwinterm]

The tail emission in Monero makes it mathematically impossible for Monero to be x% mined in y years.. 

Not exactly. It can be x% mined in y years for the coming z years, right? If after 4 years it is 80% mined, and then there is tail inflation of 0.3% per year (making numbers up here), then you could say that 70% of the coins for the next 100 years will be mined in the first 4 years...or something.

[smooth]

The tail emission in Monero makes it mathematically impossible for Monero to be x% mined in y years.. 

Not exactly. It can be x% mined in y years for the coming z years, right? If after 4 years it is 80% mined, and then there is tail inflation of 0.3% per year (making numbers up here), then you could say that 70% of the coins for the next 100 years will be mined in the first 4 years...or something.

Both correct of course.

[smooth]

The view key is well known, but it can be a blunt instrument, since it reveals all payments for the entire lifetime of an account (including past and future). It is less known that you can disclose individual payments on a case by case basis, as needed:

Whoa, I did *not* know this.  I thought it was a one-time shot.  Very cool.  That pretty much wraps up necessary transparency.  I can't think of any other optional transparency that would be needed.

I  *also* did not know that.

Is this a feature inherent in all crypto note implementations? Or is this unique to Monero?

Its inherent in how cryptonote signatures work (earlier I quoted from the original cryptonote white paper).

Most of these features are not implemented very well if at all in terms of tooling but the cryptography/protocol makes them possible, and I'm sure support will come in time.

[G2M]

And another problem with this community: super defensive people right from the get go!

I own Bitcoin and Monero. I do not own Ether.

They may be business ventures, but it's disappointing to me that after all this time positioning Monero as the anonymous currency to go for, we're still worth several million in total.
The trouble is that the free market does not value what we have to offer. This is my concern.

 
 
You're right.  You seem to have a history of supporting Monero while keeping a realistic outlook.  Excuse the shill-cusations. 
 
The price is a side-effect of the ultimate purpose, so don't focus on it. 
 
 
 
Think about it like this.  You come to me, AmericanPegaHitch and say, "I want women to fall at my feet," and I say, "Ok, we can do that, but it's going to take some work.  You're gonna need to hit the gym pretty much every day and get a 10/10 bod + abs, we're gonna need to get you an impeccable wardrobe and haircut, and you are gonna need to develop the confidence of an NFL superstar.  It's gonna be a lot of work, but if you do it all you'll become a god among men." 
 
"Yeah, but when are the women gonna fall for me?" 
 
"That is a side effect of all the work you're going to be putting in.  Do you know what we call the guys who just want to skip right to the women-wanting-them stage without putting in the work?" 
 
"No, what?" 
 
"We call them Bytecoiners."

To increase muscle mass in the most efficient way possible, you need to warm up before each and every workout. As your muscles are getting worked out more, there is a higher chance that they will get injured. By warming up, these injuries can be prevented. Before you lift anything heavy, do 5-10 minutes of light cardio, followed by a few light or intermediate sets of your regular exercises.
 http://vitacleanseblogs.com/testo-factor-x/

So apparently if I go to the gym every day and take testo factor x, my friend Dr Calvin here seems to think I'll be a millionaire.

Best speculation ever.

I put these side by side BC adorable.

Anyways .. I speculate that the bimonthly or monthly buying pattern will continue until the orders are filled. Personally I'm not raising my buy order.

[Its About Sharing]

Added a few XMR recently. Chart is looking nice, by "design"? 

Curious, I know it has been discussed before but given the nature of Crypto (constantly evolving, quick to change, etc.), I wonder about price projections here.
Yeah, a shot in the dark in Crypto land. If America gets stupid and decides to start something with Russia, if the financial meltdown really starts in the next year
or so, etc. - then all bets might be off. (Crypto needs some time to take hold imo.)

I'm wondering, BTC has so much behind it:
public blockchain - all the research regarding ownership ledgers (e.g. banks, property, etc.)
Starting to be heard by more and more people
Payment backbone (maybe more banks, CC's, etc.)

Now, Monero can touch on some of the same things, but obviously not all of them. That is fine, no problem there. More than enough to go around.
But what happens when BTC is 10,000 per coin? I mean it has to get there to really be functional (and much much much higher for that matter).

I see Monero (in the relative near term anyway) as being more of a store of value. Perhaps as a personal transfer of wealth. But I am not sure it will
be used in the same ways as BTC. So how do you justify price as BTC goes up? It might be as we have seen in the past with LTC and other cryptos -
As they became popular the price actually rose against Bitcoin.

I think at some price point, the opposite might happen. When BTC is 10k, can the alts realistically keep up?
Well, if your Average Joe wants to get in (and there will be millions of them), then yes, it can.
Ideas? I know many of you are way more connected regarding these topics than me. A fun play in the mind none the less.

Thanks in advance and don't forget,
It is about sharing

[dEBRUYNE]

Still.... if you want to own Monero the time to do so is fucking NOW, before the GUI comes out.  And if you haven't compiled the latest source yet... well, that perpetual database the devs have been working on since 1991 is almost done.
  

Careful giving advice there. I had this same assumption over a year ago and got slightly burnt, but long term, I should be ok. XMR I believe hast hit ~ 1.60 USD per coin back in like may of 2014, and then sunk as low (?) as .25 USD this past winter, assuming my memory serves me well.

I think it was even higher, somewhere around 2$, you can see most of the $ XMR prices here -> http://coincap.io/#/coin/xmr. However, XMR got hit pretty bad by the bearmarket in BTC, if the bearmarket hadn't sustained that long we probably would've seen a different price. Remember that a bearmarket in BTC significantly lowers the confidence in cryptocurrencies in general and thus gives a leveraged effect on most alts. But I think we have seen the bottom now for BTC (not entirely sure) and thus some upwards room will be created for XMR.

Regarding the GUI, devs shifted priorities after the August 2014 block attack and focussed on fundamentals first (see this comment by fluffypony -> https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3g227j/questions_about_monero/ctu5ior?context=3).

[GingerAle]

Added a few XMR recently. Chart is looking nice, by "design"? 

Curious, I know it has been discussed before but given the nature of Crypto (constantly evolving, quick to change, etc.), I wonder about price projections here.
Yeah, a shot in the dark in Crypto land. If America gets stupid and decides to start something with Russia, if the financial meltdown really starts in the next year
or so, etc. - then all bets might be off. (Crypto needs some time to take hold imo.)

I'm wondering, BTC has so much behind it:
public blockchain - all the research regarding ownership ledgers (e.g. banks, property, etc.)
Starting to be heard by more and more people
Payment backbone (maybe more banks, CC's, etc.)

Now, Monero can touch on some of the same things, but obviously not all of them. That is fine, no problem there. More than enough to go around.
But what happens when BTC is 10,000 per coin? I mean it has to get there to really be functional (and much much much higher for that matter).

I see Monero (in the relative near term anyway) as being more of a store of value. Perhaps as a personal transfer of wealth. But I am not sure it will
be used in the same ways as BTC. So how do you justify price as BTC goes up? It might be as we have seen in the past with LTC and other cryptos -
As they became popular the price actually rose against Bitcoin.


I think at some price point, the opposite might happen. When BTC is 10k, can the alts realistically keep up?
Well, if your Average Joe wants to get in (and there will be millions of them), then yes, it can.
Ideas? I know many of you are way more connected regarding these topics than me. A fun play in the mind none the less.

Thanks in advance and don't forget,
It is about sharing

Monero: store of value - definitely near term, considering tail emissions. But don't worry. I'm sure someone will make an unobtanium version for whatever reason.

I see bitcoin going to 10k per coin in ~ 50 years. BTC will go up because the powers that be will actually use it. Once these idiots realize that blockchain without bitcoin is just a shared database, and company A aint gonna trust company B's database, and C and D etc., they'll realize "oh thats what the common ledger is for. So we can trust each other by not having to trust each other" because, you know, these idiots don't understand trust because they're in business / banking and their modus operandi is probably 15 - 30% "well, I'll tell them this, but I'll do that, and what they don't know won't hurt them, and I'll probably get away with it" (ref: 2008 crisis). At that point, bitcoin infrastructure will be so centralized that we'll probably approach some kind of mutually assured destruction pact for the public blockchain. The public pool - comprised of the existing ones, still run by independent miners - The US Fed pool, and the China pool will be the big players jockeying over hash power. Entities that we now know as banks will also have a share of the network, so it will probably be something like:


20% china
20% USA
20% banks
20% public
20% other

Due to this centralized nature of the infrastructure, and because the blockchain has become the contractual superhighway, access to this highway will be set by the governments. I don't see fiat leaving our financial system in this 50 year timeframe; instead fiat's value will be determined by its bitcoin value. Ref: gold standard slipping as safe haven.

How does monero tie in, and whats the value?

With any luck, the Monero network grows in a different pattern than Bitcoin. Instead of specialized mining hardware introduced that's designed to connect to pools, each piece of hardware is its own node. Furthermore, someone cracks the POW / technology evolution problem. I.e., any given piece of hardware will only ever achieve X% of network hashrate. Monero becomes the private contractual superhighway, but is primarily used as currency. For everything that benefits and/or requires the sunlight of a public blockchain, the public would use bitcoin. For everything else, there's Monero.

now THATS some speculation!

[Its About Sharing]

Thanks for the reply. I can't imagine BTC being 10,000 in 50 years. If it is 10,000 in 50 years, honestly, it will be Niche. This is just too powerful of a tech.

Store of value for sure.
BTC should see 10,000 in 3-5 years, max. This is just simple math. The market cap has to go up soon or it won't be useful for the wealthy looking to move money.
10,000 per BTC X 15,000 BTC = 15 Trillion. That is a starting point for this type of "financial instrument."
The current financial system is not going to last 3-5 years.

When BTC is 10,000 USD, that is only around a 35 times increase from current levels.
If Monero gets popular (enough), .70 X 35 = app. 25 bucks a coin.
Now, for the average person who can use (simple tech in the next 2 years), 25 bucks is a bargain.
So, I just don't see it happening. I really think XMR (if it is top 5, along with the others) will have to go up (ratio wise), just based on the psychology of the "1 Unit" price.
Who knows though, maybe cooler heads prevail.

And we certainly can't look out more than 2-3 years anyway, so many variables on the near horizon, in both the space and Global situation.

IAS

[generalizethis]

Store of value for sure.
BTC should see 10,000 in 3-5 years, max. This is just simple math. The market cap has to go up soon or it won't be useful for the wealthy looking to move money.

Is storing all transactions on a public database for all time useful for wealthy people looking to move money?

Doubt it.

[Its About Sharing]

Store of value for sure.
BTC should see 10,000 in 3-5 years, max. This is just simple math. The market cap has to go up soon or it won't be useful for the wealthy looking to move money.

Is storing all transactions on a public database for all time useful for wealthy people looking to move money?

Doubt it.

If you want to replace the word "wealthy" with banks, so be it.
And don't forget there are plenty of mixers. If wealthy buy BTC NOT through exchanges, it won't matter.

I don't fully disagree with you however. Consider, if TPTB see this as a problem, they just make it illegal to dissuade people.
I don't think there is a simple answer.

Elaborate. 

[generalizethis]

Store of value for sure.
BTC should see 10,000 in 3-5 years, max. This is just simple math. The market cap has to go up soon or it won't be useful for the wealthy looking to move money.

Is storing all transactions on a public database for all time useful for wealthy people looking to move money?

Doubt it.

If you want to replace the word "wealthy" with banks, so be it.
And don't forget there are plenty of mixers. If wealthy buy BTC NOT through exchanges, it won't matter.

I don't fully disagree with you however. Consider, if TPTB see this as a problem, they just make it illegal to dissuade people.
I don't think there is a simple answer.

Elaborate.  

I think it is those estimated to be hiding upwards of 20 trillion dollars (www.forbes.com/sites/frederickallen/2012/07/23/super-rich-hide-21-trillion-offshore-study-says/) that don't want to use public blockchains. Though I imagine some banks will realize the security risks before it becomes apparent to everyone.

[Gillette]

Interesting... While btc is down, xmr is up

[wpalczynski]

slapper, you are welcome to post your opinions on Monero's short-term or long-term prospects. Just insulting people is neither on-topic nor welcome

I got no problem with people. People are cool. If you are going to throw me under the bus that is fine too. However how come you don't even slap some of the rags on their wrists calling the distribution as "80 % premine in 4 years". Who do I need to fuck to get that kind of treatment? Another troll posts on this thread repeatedly with his gibberish (and we all know who that is) but you don't even pull them on the side to warm them. It's fucking exhausting watching the same shit, and I needed to vent.

TC drives many of us crazy but his posts as ludicrous as they are, are speculative in nature.

[Andretti83]

It is less known that you can disclose individual payments on a case by case basis, as needed:

I always thought viewkey for entire address and only for one individual payment are nice, but there need to be something in between.
Is it possible, maybe even planned, to make wallet function, that can export all individual viewkeys for set period of time?
And then there should be block explorer, that allows to import this batch of viewkeys in one pass.

I'm not sure about real implementations, but probably for hypothetical tax checking, this may be much more convenient
than revealing entire address history, or dealing with every transaction one by one.

[slap]

Interesting... While btc is down, xmr is up

Yep, hence the question I dropped few days earlier; is xmr being used as an hedge towards btc?
Ofcourse you can drop btc in different altcoins as an hedge, but xmr seems the weapon of choice for this.
Confirmed?

[TrueCryptonaire]

I like the fact that people are talking about 2000 usd Monero price - even though many are pretty critical towards that price for Monero.
I have given arguments why it is possible that Monero reach it (I am not saying it is most likely taking place but certainly it is possible).
However, the people who critisize this view never gives even one argument why it is not going to happen. The best arguments against that is "It will not happen because it is TrueCryptonaire who says so" (meanwhile TrueCryptonaire is one of the view who is right pretty often - not always but often).

Actually the amount of sceptics is making me even more bullish as there are still many people who need to adapt to Monero.

If you want to make money you usually need to be ahead of the mainstream, but also it is important that the mainstream is following you, but only later when we have reached the higher price. 

[Its About Sharing]

Store of value for sure.
BTC should see 10,000 in 3-5 years, max. This is just simple math. The market cap has to go up soon or it won't be useful for the wealthy looking to move money.

Is storing all transactions on a public database for all time useful for wealthy people looking to move money?

Doubt it.

If you want to replace the word "wealthy" with banks, so be it.
And don't forget there are plenty of mixers. If wealthy buy BTC NOT through exchanges, it won't matter.

I don't fully disagree with you however. Consider, if TPTB see this as a problem, they just make it illegal to dissuade people.
I don't think there is a simple answer.

Elaborate.  

I think it is those estimated to be hiding upwards of 20 trillion dollars (www.forbes.com/sites/frederickallen/2012/07/23/super-rich-hide-21-trillion-offshore-study-says/) that don't want to use public blockchains. Though I imagine some banks will realize the security risks before it becomes apparent to everyone.

Yeah, we are splitting hairs at this point. It is essentially a new asset class with (relatively) no one on board. Just legit storage on BTC must be huge.
I can equally imagine what you say about XMR and others who want to keep things a secret huge as well. Who knows, if governments
continue down the Bail in Mode (not bail out), they might essentially be helping the cause.

I wonder if BTC will still be used here, in part anyway, as you will need to go from XMR to $$$ and BTC might be in between, or other cryptos.
I think we will not recognize this space in 3-5 years. Forget about 20 years!

[slap]

I like the fact that people are talking about 2000 usd Monero price - even though many are pretty critical towards that price for Monero.
...

So far you are the only one mentioning 2000, as far as I read. No trollness intended.
Can you tell me why you think so and where you read about the others mentioning that price?
tia

[hodlmybtc]

I like the fact that people are talking about 2000 usd Monero price - even though many are pretty critical towards that price for Monero.
...

So far you are the only one mentioning 2000, as far as I read. No trollness intended.
Can you tell me why you think so and where you read about the others mentioning that price?
tia

You should take his words with a grain of salt, when he's bullish he's posting stuff like that, when he's bearish he thinks current prices are way overpriced.

Interesting... While btc is down, xmr is up

Yep, hence the question I dropped few days earlier; is xmr being used as an hedge towards btc?
Ofcourse you can drop btc in different altcoins as an hedge, but xmr seems the weapon of choice for this.
Confirmed?

I'm using XMR as an hedge against BTC and ofcourse more people in the Monero community are doing this.

As you said every altcoin can do this, but I believe that Monero has a good chance to survive with BTC, BTC the public ledger, XMR the private ledger and some other 2.0 ledgers alongside with them.