[XMR] Monero Speculation

[wpalczynski]

I like the fact that people are talking about 2000 usd Monero price - even though many are pretty critical towards that price for Monero.
I have given arguments why it is possible that Monero reach it (I am not saying it is most likely taking place but certainly it is possible).
However, the people who critisize this view never gives even one argument why it is not going to happen. The best arguments against that is "It will not happen because it is TrueCryptonaire who says so" (meanwhile TrueCryptonaire is one of the view who is right pretty often - not always but often).

Actually the amount of sceptics is making me even more bullish as there are still many people who need to adapt to Monero.

If you want to make money you usually need to be ahead of the mainstream, but also it is important that the mainstream is following you, but only later when we have reached the higher price. 

Your sig is too funny.  You are neither uber bearish or bullish.  You are just uber manipulative depending on your market position.

[nioc]

This week I only get 5/7 XMR for my 10 deposit bottles found, I don't buy or consume.

Somehow 400,000 bottles per XMR doesn't sound reasonable although I did see one lady with ~1000.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I like the fact that people are talking about 2000 usd Monero price - even though many are pretty critical towards that price for Monero.
...

So far you are the only one mentioning 2000, as far as I read. No trollness intended.
Can you tell me why you think so and where you read about the others mentioning that price?
tia

Perhaps it is due to my low IQ - only 106 1-2 years ago when I measured it - but I see 2000 usd Monero price possible. Or even higher - do not get me wrong.
I do not think it will happen like 1-2 days but it definetely is possible in few years. Bitcoin reached 1200 usd in less than 5 years. Monero can do it even in shorter period as Monero do not need to bear the weight of first mover (Monero community reached the current size faster than bitcoin reached the same number of users/holders as the community was not crypto virgins).

Simple mathematics is my main reasoning, however it requires a few assumptions and if those will not be fulfilled it is rockier road to reach the 2000 usd (or higher) price.
One thing we need is enough coins stored in  cold storages/held unused. Let's assume, all the coins that will be mined before the tailed emission is stored in cold storages by different users.
Then we have the minimum block reward which is 0.1 xmr or so if I am not mistaken. That means, daily emission is 60*24*0.1=144 coins.

Then there is only 1 million usd that wants to buy Moneros daily. This leads the relative price of Monero is 1 000 000usd/144xmr = 6944 usd/xmr.

I've picked 2000 usd Monero price to be safer and more conservative..
I agree not many here fully realize fuller potential of Monero. People tend to assume coin maximum can reach 10 times higher price than the current price, which is pretty understandable since people in general are used to 5-10 % annual ROI from US stock markets. Therefore speaking about the potential of Monero (or any other crypto that has something to contribute to the society) is something we really has not seen yet to come true.

I consider Monero as an investment such as Microsoft has been for Bill Gates. When he started with Windows it was a company of one man. Now (almost) every company has Windows as their operating system not to mention the general population who has Windows in their PCs.
Monero is now like Windows in early stages to me (time before it was listed publically). When stocks are listed many founders of the compnies cash out - for them the most ROI potential is reached when the markets give the fair value for their businesses. When the company is listed, it starts to give the small 5-10 % ROI annually to which the sheep is used to.

[americanpegasus]

I've picked 2000 usd Monero price to be safer and more conservative..
I agree not many here fully realize fuller potential of Monero. People tend to assume coin maximum can reach 10 times higher price than the current price, which is pretty understandable since people in general are used to 5-10 % annual ROI from US stock markets. Therefore speaking about the potential of Monero (or any other crypto that has something to contribute to the society) is something we really has not seen yet to come true.

 
 
I think someone like yourself should aim to hold at least 18,000.  If you weren't 1/1,000 and here this early in the game I would be sad for you.

[slap]

TC
thanks for sharing your point of view.

I've still got the unanswerd question where you read about others calling a price of 2000.
Thnx again.

[oblox]

I like the fact that people are talking about 2000 usd Monero price - even though many are pretty critical towards that price for Monero.
...

So far you are the only one mentioning 2000, as far as I read. No trollness intended.
Can you tell me why you think so and where you read about the others mentioning that price?
tia

Perhaps it is due to my low IQ - only 106 1-2 years ago when I measured it - but I see 2000 usd Monero price possible. Or even higher - do not get me wrong.
I do not think it will happen like 1-2 days but it definetely is possible in few years. Bitcoin reached 1200 usd in less than 5 years. Monero can do it even in shorter period as Monero do not need to bear the weight of first mover (Monero community reached the current size faster than bitcoin reached the same number of users/holders as the community was not crypto virgins).

Simple mathematics is my main reasoning, however it requires a few assumptions and if those will not be fulfilled it is rockier road to reach the 2000 usd (or higher) price.
One thing we need is enough coins stored in  cold storages/held unused. Let's assume, all the coins that will be mined before the tailed emission is stored in cold storages by different users.
Then we have the minimum block reward which is 0.1 xmr or so if I am not mistaken. That means, daily emission is 60*24*0.1=144 coins.

Then there is only 1 million usd that wants to buy Moneros daily. This leads the relative price of Monero is 1 000 000usd/144xmr = 6944 usd/xmr.

I've picked 2000 usd Monero price to be safer and more conservative..
I agree not many here fully realize fuller potential of Monero. People tend to assume coin maximum can reach 10 times higher price than the current price, which is pretty understandable since people in general are used to 5-10 % annual ROI from US stock markets. Therefore speaking about the potential of Monero (or any other crypto that has something to contribute to the society) is something we really has not seen yet to come true.

I consider Monero as an investment such as Microsoft has been for Bill Gates. When he started with Windows it was a company of one man. Now (almost) every company has Windows as their operating system not to mention the general population who has Windows in their PCs.
Monero is now like Windows in early stages to me (time before it was listed publically). When stocks are listed many founders of the compnies cash out - for them the most ROI potential is reached when the markets give the fair value for their businesses. When the company is listed, it starts to give the small 5-10 % ROI annually to which the sheep is used to.

Besides the fact that you are most likely planning to sell .003-.004, if everyone had their XMR stored in cold storage, it's not a currency. If you ask Fluffy about what he sees as the future, it's in transactional value and shouldn't be treated as a speculative investment. It very well could be a store of value but to get there almost certainly needs an economy behind it (people willing to buy and sell XMR for goods and services). There needs to be utility and that's not something you're magically going to get if everyone cold-stores coins.

No one is going to sink a million dollars into accumulating coins if there is no means of actually getting out when they need to. You're also assuming that no one is willing to part with coins along the way, even with the price sitting that high. You can bet your sweet ass there will be substantial supply available should XMR even reach levels greater than $100--hell, at this point, there most certainly would be supply available above $5-$10. If it pulls a bitcoin in terms of the size move it makes, there will be plenty willing to take profits on 10x their return knowing that the future is unknown and the gain is already better than anything you are going to get elsewhere. It doesn't mean there won't be those that continue to hold, no different than the select few that held BTC all the way to >$1000.

Further, until a coin actually makes it to the number 2 position, it's super foolish to even discuss valuations like $2k/coin.

[TrueCryptonaire]

TC
thanks for sharing your point of view.

I've still got the unanswerd question where you read about others calling a price of 2000.
Thnx again.

Nobody calling that price besides me but as I told, my IQ is only 106 so perhaps that's the reason.
Risto mentioned this price in Polo trollbox like 1 year ago... And people are talking about my price target of 2000 usd. It may not happen also but I see it as a possiblity meanwhile many thinks it is impossible.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I've picked 2000 usd Monero price to be safer and more conservative..
I agree not many here fully realize fuller potential of Monero. People tend to assume coin maximum can reach 10 times higher price than the current price, which is pretty understandable since people in general are used to 5-10 % annual ROI from US stock markets. Therefore speaking about the potential of Monero (or any other crypto that has something to contribute to the society) is something we really has not seen yet to come true.

 
 
I think someone like yourself should aim to hold at least 18,000.  If you weren't 1/1,000 and here this early in the game I would be sad for you.

I have much more than 18 000 XMR. In the future I do not know but let's hope nothing happens which would force me to sell too early to make the expensive mistake.

[ArticMine]

...

Besides the fact that you are most likely planning to sell .003-.004, if everyone had their XMR stored in cold storage, it's not a currency. If you ask Fluffy about what he sees as the future, it's in transactional value and shouldn't be treated as a speculative investment. It very well could be a store of value but to get there almost certainly needs an economy behind it (people willing to buy and sell XMR for goods and services). There needs to be utility and that's not something you're magically going to get if everyone cold-stores coins.

No one is going to sink a million dollars into accumulating coins if there is no means of actually getting out when they need to. You're also assuming that no one is willing to part with coins along the way, even with the price sitting that high. You can bet your sweet ass there will be substantial supply available should XMR even reach levels greater than $100--hell, at this point, there most certainly would be supply available above $5-$10. If it pulls a bitcoin in terms of the size move it makes, there will be plenty willing to take profits on 10x their return knowing that the future is unknown and the gain is already better than anything you are going to get elsewhere. It doesn't mean there won't be those that continue to hold, no different than the select few that held BTC all the way to >$1000.

Further, until a coin actually makes it to the number 2 position, it's super foolish to even discuss valuations like $2k/coin.

These are some very valid points. The value of a crypto currency and this includes Monero lies in its use as a transactional currency. Those who invest or speculate are in effect betting its future value as a transactional currency; they are however important to the success of a crypto currency since they help bootstrap the currency. As for holding on until 1000 USD or what ever smart investors are likely to sell a portion at lower prices while keeping a portion for a future "run" in effect hedging their position.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I like the fact that people are talking about 2000 usd Monero price - even though many are pretty critical towards that price for Monero.
...

So far you are the only one mentioning 2000, as far as I read. No trollness intended.
Can you tell me why you think so and where you read about the others mentioning that price?
tia

Besides the fact that you are most likely planning to sell .003-.004, if everyone had their XMR stored in cold storage, it's not a currency. If you ask Fluffy about what he sees as the future, it's in transactional value and shouldn't be treated as a speculative investment. It very well could be a store of value but to get there almost certainly needs an economy behind it (people willing to buy and sell XMR for goods and services). There needs to be utility and that's not something you're magically going to get if everyone cold-stores coins.

No one is going to sink a million dollars into accumulating coins if there is no means of actually getting out when they need to. You're also assuming that no one is willing to part with coins along the way, even with the price sitting that high. You can bet your sweet ass there will be substantial supply available should XMR even reach levels greater than $100--hell, at this point, there most certainly would be supply available above $5-$10. If it pulls a bitcoin in terms of the size move it makes, there will be plenty willing to take profits on 10x their return knowing that the future is unknown and the gain is already better than anything you are going to get elsewhere. It doesn't mean there won't be those that continue to hold, no different than the select few that held BTC all the way to >$1000.

I have not pre-set any trading plans.
If I see the markets cannot take a certain price or higher, then I sell. I am not stupid that stupid that I would hold something that decreases. My next selling target might be at 0.003-0.004 or it can be 0.04 or 0.1 or even higher. I do not like setting prices since surprisingly things happen and crypto is not like gold bullion in the sense of price setting - Crypto do not hold any intrinsinct value like gold... Its value is based on supply and demand, nothing else. When there is a reason to speculate more demand will enter, I will take a position and become bullish and vice versa. I am pretty open about this. Why should I hide it even?

Monero can have value also as a store of value. Monero has inflation which lowers over time and that is something people who are concerned about inflation loves. Therefore Monero can have value other than transactional currency. I think Monero will both be used as a method of payment as well as a store of value.
If 18 million Moneros will be held as a store of value we can transact very well with the rest of Moneros. We simply buy our toys with fractions of Moneros like people did when bitcoin was 1000 usd.

[aminorex]

transaction rate over float sets market, but reserve use sets float.  the interplay between market and reserve use is a feedback loop.  since it is an open loop, small externalities affect its evolution profoundly, if they are resonant or damping.

8% of a 2tn usd economy at velocity 8 and a float of 10mm xmr implies a 2000 usd valuation.  xmr denominating 8% of the global underground economy is a hypothetical speculation, but does not stress the limits of possibility by any means. this would accommodate, almost, the 20tn reserve capacity target mentioned previously.

[nioc]

Any word on what the big hullabaloo is supposed to be today from XMRchina?

He said that setting up things went slower than hoped.  I don't know where his post is but he gave some details about what he was doing.

[dEBRUYNE]

Any word on what the big hullabaloo is supposed to be today from XMRchina?

He said that setting up things went slower than hoped.  I don't know where his post is but he gave some details about what he was doing.

See below:

Hello everyone,

As I stated in my last update some things are taking longer than I thought
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg11997287#msg11997287

I had planned to use some press releases to direct some traffic to 8xmr.com however that site if not yet ready. Currently 8xmr has it pointed to getmonero.org until 8xmr.com is ready to launch

dEBRUYNE mentioned that a David Lapatie article has already been translated into Chinese here:
http://www.8btc.com/monero

The problem is that 8xmr may eventually become a competitor to 8btc so it would be wrong to ask 8xmr to point traffic there now.  I also want to include 8xmr in our China launch plans because it could become our biggest Chinese community portal.  I have no updates on new exchanges yet but hopefully if we all keep frequently contacting them they will add us relatively soon. More translations on the getmonero page will of course help.

A few of you have asked about the significant of 8/8. The number 8 is considered a lucky number. Wedding presents for example may be in denominations of 8. Vanity phone numbers often carry the number 8 as do many popular websites (like 8btc). 8/8 does not directly relate to Monero. It just would have been a good day to launch a campaign.

Sorry for the delays. Please continue to contact exchanges and complete all the missing English content on getmonero.org so that everything can be approved for translation. I communicate with 8xmr often and will let you know when that website is ready for launch.

[GingerAle]

Any word on what the big hullabaloo is supposed to be today from XMRchina?

He said that setting up things went slower than hoped.  I don't know where his post is but he gave some details about what he was doing.

See below:

Hello everyone,

As I stated in my last update some things are taking longer than I thought
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg11997287#msg11997287

I had planned to use some press releases to direct some traffic to 8xmr.com however that site if not yet ready. Currently 8xmr has it pointed to getmonero.org until 8xmr.com is ready to launch

dEBRUYNE mentioned that a David Lapatie article has already been translated into Chinese here:
http://www.8btc.com/monero

The problem is that 8xmr may eventually become a competitor to 8btc so it would be wrong to ask 8xmr to point traffic there now.  I also want to include 8xmr in our China launch plans because it could become our biggest Chinese community portal.  I have no updates on new exchanges yet but hopefully if we all keep frequently contacting them they will add us relatively soon. More translations on the getmonero page will of course help.

A few of you have asked about the significant of 8/8. The number 8 is considered a lucky number. Wedding presents for example may be in denominations of 8. Vanity phone numbers often carry the number 8 as do many popular websites (like 8btc). 8/8 does not directly relate to Monero. It just would have been a good day to launch a campaign.

Sorry for the delays. Please continue to contact exchanges and complete all the missing English content on getmonero.org so that everything can be approved for translation. I communicate with 8xmr often and will let you know when that website is ready for launch.

OH NO! The Soon Affliction is spreading throughout the Monero community!

SOON! soon soon soon!

I speculate that if we don't do something to inoculate other newcomers to Monero that the Soon Affliction will spread! Pretty soon, everyone who has a full time job and tries to do stuff for monero in the 2 hours at night after they put their loved ones to bed will be overshooting randomly selected timeframes!

(did you see what I did there?)

[MoneroMooo]

(did you see what I did there?)

Not yet, but I'm sure I'll see it soon.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I really hope the price stays above 0.002 so that we can maintain the bull run.
Now there are so much dumping taking place in the markets.. What is currently the critical price for maintaining the bull run?

[rpietila]

I don't understand this haste in pumping the price up. It's cool if we go to 0.0043 or beyond. But it is equally cool if we go to 0.0015. The latter would be even cooler regarding my activities, but for the same reason, I believe we will see the former first.

 

[rangedriver]

I have much more than 18 000 XMR. In the future I do not know but let's hope nothing happens which would force me to sell too early to make the expensive mistake.

I'd be surprised if you had more than 5000 XMR.

[dreamspark]

I don't understand this haste in pumping the price up. It's cool if we go to 0.0043 or beyond. But it is equally cool if we go to 0.0015. The latter would be even cooler regarding my activities, but for the same reason, I believe we will see the former first.

 

If the price went back to 0.0015 I would be getting seriously tempted to crack open some old cold storage (early 13 cold storage that I didnt even really think of breaking into during Nov 13 bull run!).

We can dream I guess, I did get some bids filled around 0.00235 which is where I predicted this pull back would hit. Not as much as I'd like though so keep dumping people.

[slap]

i wouldnt mind if 'your activities' would result in a small pump though. 

@TC
trendline... you said 2000 usd, so draw a line from here to 2000 (10years?)
thats your line. No trollness intended ofcourse.