[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

Ideally the protocol should be set at launch and cast in stone.

That's a nice abstract theory but it hasn't ever been demonstrated to be viable. Maybe someday it will be.

That is why the window of opportunity to get it right has to be used, particularly for hard forks that could have any possibe economic ramifications. When Satoshi put in the 1 MB blocksize limit in 2010 in Bitcoin, Satoshi did not forsee that this would become such a fiasco 5 years later.

Edit 1: One thing to keep in mind here is that the protocol does not need to be perfect. It only needs to be "good enough". SMTP is a perfect example.

Edit 2: The 1 MB blocksize limit in Bitcoin was easily forseen that it would become an issue later.

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[smooth]

Ideally the protocol should be set at launch and cast in stone.

That's a nice abstract theory but it hasn't ever been demonstrated to be viable. Maybe someday it will be.

That is why the window of opportunity to get it right has to be used, particularly for hard forks that could have any possibe economic ramifications. When Satoshi put in the 1 MB blocksize limit in 2010 in Bitcoin, Satoshi did not forsee that this would become such a fiasco 5 years later.

Edit: One thing to keep in mind here is that the protocol does not need to be perfect. It only needs to be "good enough". SMTP is a perfect example.

Except that SMTP does evolve:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_SMTP#Extensions

The latest extension I see listed is from 2012:

https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc6531

Maybe "good enough" means making the protocol extensible, but that is more problematic for a consensus protocol where everyone has to agree, as opposed to SMTP where individual client-server pairs can agree on an extension.

[g4q34g4qg47ww]

My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

[ArticMine]

My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

For Monero I am not concerned at all, since the mid to long term fundamentals are very solid. For Bitcoin I am not that sure anymore. This whole blocksize debate can cause a lot of damage. In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

[canth]

rip monero

Lol...do we need to make a moneroisdead.com site to remind you of how retarded it is to make these baseless pronouncements? It's about as intelligent as http://bitcoinobituaries.com/

You probably sold your BTC at $30 back 2011, right before it 'died'.

[mrkavasaki]

wow $0.40 per xmr

like i am said, monero is going nowhere but down

you  guys should had listening to me

[jehst]

My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

[smooth]

My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

I basically agree but let me state the bear case. There may come a time, perhaps unexpectedly, when BTC pulls away, posts large gains, and its network effect becomes prohibitive. The crypto wars will then be over and only BTC will remain standing, with the rest declining virtually to zero. This is essentially the Bitcoin Maximalist view expressed in a more market neutral manner. I don't necessarily believe it, but I don't consider it impossible either.

[dreamspark]

My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

I basically agree but let me state the bear case. There may come a time, perhaps unexpectedly, when BTC pulls away, posts large gains, and its network effect becomes prohibitive. The crypto wars will then be over and only BTC will remain standing, with the rest declining virtually to zero. This is essentially the Bitcoin Maximalist view expressed in a more market neutral manner. I don't necessarily believe it, but I don't consider it impossible either.

I think the real bear case is if crypto just doesn't succeed full stop.

The recent shenanigans regarding btc development has demonstrated just how immature and ill-prepared crypto is for the wider world.  I'm not saying its btc or nothing but btc has to break into the real mainstream on some sort of level before the world will accept crypto as a viable thing. Otherwise everything else will be met with the same scorn as a failed btc project, imo.

[ArticMine]

My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

Yes but for the hedge to work a substantial fiat postion say 75% - 80% is needed. The point is that alts have a much higher beta than Bitcoin, so in most cases they will drop also in terms of Bitcoin. As for the alts above I say that PPC and NMC are ok choices as for ETH my take is no. XMR is very attactive here since it does not have the blocksize problem that got Bitcoin into this mess in the first place. Most other POW, and even some POS alts have a similar blocksize problem.


Edit: The fiat part of the position is the bear case. My take is that If one holds an alt out side of the hedge it must not have the blocksize problem.

[jehst]

My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

I basically agree but let me state the bear case. There may come a time, perhaps unexpectedly, when BTC pulls away, posts large gains, and its network effect becomes prohibitive. The crypto wars will then be over and only BTC will remain standing, with the rest declining virtually to zero. This is essentially the Bitcoin Maximalist view expressed in a more market neutral manner. I don't necessarily believe it, but I don't consider it impossible either.

I've read the theory from the bitcoin maximalist camp such as the guys from the Nakamoto Institute. They write about how all altcoins are snakeoil scams and how bitcoin will take over everything including the USD. It was convincing to me back in 2013, but as I've watched the blooming of altcoins in 2014 and the way that altcoins have refused to die, and the way many cultures and languages and other collective phenomena refuse to die, it's become less and less convincing. You could make the same maximalist arguments about social networks, but in reality we see that one network doesn't take over. Russia and Brazil and many other countries have decided to use other networks even though Facebook is accessible. Language bubbles are a factor. Ybcoin is popular in China and almost all of the ybcoin discussion takes place in Chinese. And with altcoins, in addition to language bubbles, we have legitimate niches. Bitcoin has already shown itself to be extremely resistant to change. Chances are, bitcoin is not going to adopt XMR's fungibility into its protocol. Bitcoin maximalism is, IMO, extremely unrealistic and reflects a cartoonish view of the world.

[smooth]

My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

I basically agree but let me state the bear case. There may come a time, perhaps unexpectedly, when BTC pulls away, posts large gains, and its network effect becomes prohibitive. The crypto wars will then be over and only BTC will remain standing, with the rest declining virtually to zero. This is essentially the Bitcoin Maximalist view expressed in a more market neutral manner. I don't necessarily believe it, but I don't consider it impossible either.

I think the real bear case is if crypto just doesn't succeed full stop.

I agree, but I was making the case why you might not view holding even premium alts as a full substitute for holding BTC. If all crypto fails then it doesn't matter which you hold.

[ArticMine]

...
I agree, but I was making the case why you might not view holding even premium alts as a full substitute for holding BTC. If all crypto fails then it doesn't matter which you hold.

I agree. Premium alts are not full substitute for holding BTC. A significant fiat component is a must here. The more interesting question is how will various alts behave in both the bear and bull scenarios. In both overall crypto bear and bull markets there will be significant differences. In this particular case since the cause of this crypto bear market is the fixed blocksize limit in Bitcoin. My take is that how a particular alt deals with this issue will, over the long term have a very significant impact on that alt's performance in both the bear and even the bull case.

[jehst]

My confidence in BTC is pretty low. I see it as a very, very poorly managed cryptocurrency. BitShares, for example, is run like a business. The delegates who secure the transactions function as board members who have to provide services to the network. Feeds for stock/currency pegs, software development, marketing, etc. If they don't provide those services adequately, they get voted out. Other alts, like XMR have the blocksize/scalability issue already fixed. If bitcoin doesn't get it together, I think the top alts can come out of nowhere and cannibalize bitcoin's marketshare.

BTC may be Myspace.Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Instagram, and Linkedin are about to rise. XMR is one of them.

I don't see BTC as safe at all.

[oblox]

I'm super bearish on BTC as well (finally) and as such, it's hard to see alts holding up in a downtrending bitcoin environment when the overwhelming majority of volume is transacted in base BTC. Unfortunate because the last batch of BTC I bought was around $288 which I will be dumping for a loss here and sitting in fiat.

[newb4now]

My confidence in BTC is pretty low. I see it as a very, very poorly managed cryptocurrency. BitShares, for example, is run like a business. The delegates who secure the transactions function as board members who have to provide services to the network. Feeds for stock/currency pegs, software development, marketing, etc. If they don't provide those services adequately, they get voted out. Other alts, like XMR have the blocksize/scalability issue already fixed. If bitcoin doesn't get it together, I think the top alts can come out of nowhere and cannibalize bitcoin's marketshare.

BTC may be Myspace.Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Instagram, and Linkedin are about to rise. XMR is one of them.

I don't see BTC as safe at all.

My long term faith in btc will depend in part on the xt debate. It tor blacklisting is allowed with xt btc will be substantially harmed. Ironically this may end up being great news for xmr, bbr, aeon, etc

[kazuki49]

My confidence in BTC is pretty low. I see it as a very, very poorly managed cryptocurrency. BitShares, for example, is run like a business. The delegates who secure the transactions function as board members who have to provide services to the network. Feeds for stock/currency pegs, software development, marketing, etc. If they don't provide those services adequately, they get voted out. Other alts, like XMR have the blocksize/scalability issue already fixed. If bitcoin doesn't get it together, I think the top alts can come out of nowhere and cannibalize bitcoin's marketshare.

BTC may be Myspace.Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Instagram, and Linkedin are about to rise. XMR is one of them.

I don't see BTC as safe at all.

My long term faith in btc will depend in part on the xt debate. It tor blacklisting is allowed with xt btc will be substantially harmed. Ironically this may end up being great news for xmr, bbr, aeon, etc

IF XT really takes over the network I'm afraid the worst is yet to come based on what I have been reading

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think soon it will not be that hard to overtake bitcoin's market capitalization.
Bitcoin is falling like a rock and in my opinion, will not go up from here. I think we will see some downlegs before the markets calm down in order to start a new down leg.  

Monero, on the other hand,  is a bargain and I am not convinced there will not be any individual with higher risk appetite who would not start buying some major amounts of Moneros (and I am not speaking about 100 000 XMR or so which represents only a little over 1 week's emission). I am speaking here a bet of a million(s) usd from VC type of investors.

[ArticMine]

I am firmly on the large block side, since all the tracking, TOR blocking aspects of Bitcoin XT are not part of the hard fork. So another wallet can come and strip all these objectionable aspects of Bitcoin XT without the need for any further hard fork. What this does however is complicate the blocksize debate even more since there are legitimate concerns with all of these  "add ons" to Bitcoin XT. One thing is becoming clear here no matter which side Core or XT "wins" Monero stands to gain since it addresses the concerns of both sides of the debate.

My biggest concern with Bitcoin XT remains the built in 8GB blocksize limit.

[smooth]

My biggest concern with Bitcoin XT remains the built in 8GB blocksize limit.

That's a possible concern but remember it won't reach 8 GB until 2036. The initial increase is only to 8 MB then doubling every two years. Now putting aside the whole debate over whether blocks should be large or how large, it seems to me that if you are going to go the route of scaling up by increasing the block size then this could very much be a problem again before 2036. Let's say in a year or so Bitcoin has started to take off and 8 MB isn't bit enough. You will have to wait another 18 months for the increase to 16 MB and even then that is only a relatively small increase.

So I see potential speed bumps with the approach that is being taken even if you accept with Gavin and Mike say about being able to scale up the technology to use very large blocks (using IBLT and whatever). On the plus side with Gavin and Mike firmly in charge there is the possibility they could push through another hard fork (to raise the block size more quickly) if needed more easily. But then you have to ask about centralization and whether two guys firmly in charge could do something stupid too, and break it all.