[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dEBRUYNE]

smooth said yesterday that the hardfork will happen in 6 months. Implementing the recommendations from MRL0004 is important, so it is clear that the price somehow reacts to this "delay" (its not a delay, they had just wrong expectations i guess)

to me personally there is also the fact that some comments from fluffy are disturbing(at least to me, maybe its also the language), like the quote about zerocash. to me sometimes it seems like he allready made up his mind about how "a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money".

i do not think zerocash played a role in the decision to dump it down.

maybe the devs are just too honest, something we are really not used to in this space

@Ginger: the speculation was that this hardfork maybe will roll out without the 6 months softfork time, because it is too important (its no my speculation, so i just guess)

ah and btw. XAU is gold. 1 gramm of gold is ~36usd. so 0.01g gold (XAU) would be the price for the community fix   (not my idea, aminorex mentioned once to fix monero pirce in gold)

would never dump it down like that, also not at 0.1g <3

and the last edit: since there is evidence that the dumper sold on margin, my theory is flawed anyway. shame on you polo for STILL not publishing the numbers!!!!

All right, I am going to clear some things up here with respect to the bolded part. First of all, the hardfork code (the one that implements the recommendations from MRL-0004) is implemented into the new binaries (0.9). As a result, everyone who uses the new binaries will use this new code with the recommendations from MRL-0004. So it won't take six months before you can use these recommendations. However, after 6 months these changes will be enforced and thus everyone will be using them. But, as 0.9 is a significant improvement over 0.8.8.6 I guess almost everybody will be using the new binaries. Furthermore, if you compile yourself from the latest commits you will also use this new hardfork code. In addition, after 6 months there will be a new hardfork code with new recommendations and new binaries. So for example, in April they will release binaries 1.0 (guessing here) with hardfork code 2.0 and everyone can use that already. So in conclusion, only the enforcement happens in 6 months, it can already be used when the new binaries are released. I hope this clears things up.

Could you elaborate on fluffypony's comments? I always enjoy reading them.

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[medusa13]

thank you for giving more details dEBRUYNE. yes i also think mostly everyone will upgrade, and those who can not will be given some time to adapt. i run 0.9 for a long time now allready.
but isn't the amount of transactions with mixing 0 important? maybe i missunderstood something there if there are a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this is bad for all of us no? or ist it such a problem becasue of the stealth adresses?

regarding fluffys comments: think in the end these are just different kind of views. he said quite a few times that monero is not an investment. i can really understand his view and it is also true, buy and hodl wont work, especially if none builds the ecosystem. but the markets and liquidity providers are part of the ecosystem too, they are the core and yes these people are investors and they will lose most if it wont work out.

i hope this dump was the peak of moneros liquidity crisis, my heart says yes but my mind says no  

[pa]

to me personally there is also the fact that some comments from fluffy are disturbing(at least to me, maybe its also the language), like the quote about zerocash. to me sometimes it seems like he allready made up his mind about how "a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money".

I think fluffypony is referring to early adopters of Zerocash, who would be risking the loss of their funds should flaws be found. He's not talking about Monero holders losing money.

[medusa13]

yeah maybe it was just the language barrier.

anyway dont get me wrong, all in all i'm very happy with where monero is going.

[smooth]

thank you for giving more details dEBRUYNE. yes i also think mostly everyone will upgrade, and those who can not will be given some time to adapt. i run 0.9 for a long time now allready.
but isn't the amount of transactions with mixing 0 important? maybe i missunderstood something there if there are a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this is bad for all of us no? or ist it such a problem becasue of the stealth adresses?

Stealth addresses are 100% not affected at all and certainly give a measure of privacy even if mixing is totally broken. Of course the privacy is far less than if mixing worked perfectly (otherwise why even bother with mixing!), but it does't fall to zero.

I tend to have more of a glass-half-full view on this which is to say that if you look at the recent stats (on moneroblocks.eu), the share of mix 0 transactions last year was 80%. Last month it was 67%. The number will surely continue to decline when 0.9 is released and people make the transition to having an enforced minimum in six months.

[luigi1111]

thank you for giving more details dEBRUYNE. yes i also think mostly everyone will upgrade, and those who can not will be given some time to adapt. i run 0.9 for a long time now allready.
but isn't the amount of transactions with mixing 0 important? maybe i missunderstood something there if there are a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this is bad for all of us no? or ist it such a problem becasue of the stealth adresses?

Stealth addresses are 100% not affected at all and certainly give a measure of privacy even if mixing is totally broken. Of course the privacy is far less than if mixing worked perfectly (otherwise why even bother with mixing!), but it does't fall to zero.

I tend to have more of a glass-half-full view on this which is to say that if you look at the recent stats (on moneroblocks.eu), the share of mix 0 transactions last year was 80%. Last month it was 67%. The number will surely continue to decline when 0.9 is released and people make the transition to having an enforced minimum in six months.

Pssh, silly optimist.

[dEBRUYNE]

thank you for giving more details dEBRUYNE. yes i also think mostly everyone will upgrade, and those who can not will be given some time to adapt. i run 0.9 for a long time now allready.
but isn't the amount of transactions with mixing 0 important? maybe i missunderstood something there if there are a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this is bad for all of us no? or ist it such a problem becasue of the stealth adresses?

regarding fluffys comments: think in the end these are just different kind of views. he said quite a few times that monero is not an investment. i can really understand his view and it is also true, buy and hodl wont work, especially if none builds the ecosystem. but the markets and liquidity providers are part of the ecosystem too, they are the core and yes these people are investors and they will lose most if it wont work out.

i hope this dump was the peak of moneros liquidity crisis, my heart says yes but my mind says no  

I hope smooth commented sufficiently on the first part of your comment (in addition, yes a higher average mixin is better for all of us since it provides more privacy). So I'll take a shot at the second. I think he said this in the Europe missive, not sure though. But if you listened correctly to him, he said something like: "I acknowledge that traders, speculators, markets and liquidity providers are part of the eco system and contribute to this project. However, I don't like the people that buy an amount, go away and sit on their asses for 2 years and hope to get rich suddenly." So it's more a dislike towards people that don't contribute to the eco-system.

[dnaleor]

about zerocash. This is what can be found on the website

How does Zerocash work?

Zerocash extends the protocol and software underlying Bitcoin by adding new, privacy-preserving payments. In doing so it forms a new protocol that, while using some of the same technology and software as Bitcoin, is distinct from it. This new protocol has both anonymous coins, dubbed zerocoins, and non-anonymous ones, which, for purposes of disambiguation, we call basecoins. In contrast to Bitcoin's transactions, payment transactions using the Zerocash protocol do not contain any public information about the payment's origin, destination, or amount; instead, the correctness of the transaction is demonstrated via the use of a zero-knowledge proof. Users can convert from basecoins to zerocoins, send zerocoins to other users, and split or merge zerocoins they own in any way that preserves the total value. Users may also convert zerocoins back into basecoins, though in principle this is not necessary: all transactions can be made in terms of zerocoins.

There are some issues with this protocol

1) fungibility: by introducing basecoins, payment processors, exchnages, governments etc can force you to use these basecoins. When you use the zerocoins, you are flagged by default. Basically there is no difference when you use the ConfidentialTransactions-Sidechain or coinjoin.
2) zerocoin transactions will probably be larger, so people will try to avoid paying the fees by making as little zerocoin transactions as possible
3) due to the fact that eventually only people who want to hide a crime will use the zerocoins, it will be possible that when you get coins out, there is a possibility to link those coins to coins that were put into the zerocoin-pool. So it's tricky... Be aware of this or you'll use your anonimity.

compare this to XMR:
1) when mixin 0 isn't possible anymore (soon^TM) all transaction outputs (except the minted coins) are mixed by default. So you can't be forced not to use mixing.
2) because all tractions will have a minimum mixin, you can't avoid paying the fees. Paranoid people pay more for higher mixin.
3) everybody uses mixin, so it's impossible to detect money flows on the network

[dEBRUYNE]

Thanks to TheKoziTwo we have this neat little feature -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php?currency=XMR

Basically you can watch the interest rates and offerings live now. As you can see the rates are still high and the total offers low. It could be possible that the big shorters didn't close their shorts yet and are borrowing more XMR to put on the ask side in order to supress the price. So don't get fooled by all the asks :-)

[nioc]

thank you for giving more details dEBRUYNE. yes i also think mostly everyone will upgrade, and those who can not will be given some time to adapt. i run 0.9 for a long time now allready.
but isn't the amount of transactions with mixing 0 important? maybe i missunderstood something there if there are a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this is bad for all of us no? or ist it such a problem becasue of the stealth adresses?

Stealth addresses are 100% not affected at all and certainly give a measure of privacy even if mixing is totally broken. Of course the privacy is far less than if mixing worked perfectly (otherwise why even bother with mixing!), but it does't fall to zero.

I tend to have more of a glass-half-full view on this which is to say that if you look at the recent stats (on moneroblocks.eu), the share of mix 0 transactions last year was 80%. Last month it was 67%. The number will surely continue to decline when 0.9 is released and people make the transition to having an enforced minimum in six months.

As far as the % that use mixins it seems a large part of the problem are the exchanges that don't/can't use it now.

ShapeShift started to use mixin and had to stop due to problems.  Will the 0.9 release deal with whatever issues they were having?


Yes I'm back now and I see the price has recovered to 170.  hmmmmmmmmm

The price is now down to 8 deposit bottles/XMR.  

[rpietila]

The price is now down to 8 deposit bottles/XMR.

One 1-liter bottle buys you more than 1 XMR...

[papa_lazzarou]

Could you elaborate on fluffypony's comments? I always enjoy reading them.

Like it was mentioned earlier he was talking about those who use Zerocash for "anything of substancial value"

4) I love Zerocash, and I am convinced that the cryptocurrency of the future will be a descendent of Zerocash. But that's the far future, like 20-30 years, when their newfangled cryptography has been tried, tested, broken, fixed, etc. Between now and then Monero has a role to play. If it is used for anything of substantial value before it reaches sufficient maturity...well, the risk is phenomenal, and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. I am happy to let it play out, and for Monero to continue to evolve well beyond "just" a private cryptocurrency.

[smooth]

ShapeShift started to use mixin and had to stop due to problems.  Will the 0.9 release deal with whatever issues they were having?

Yes it will. The problem was some of their coins not being mixable. All coins will be mixable.

[medusa13]

thank you all, good guys like always

not that you need to convince me, but yeah my glass is sometimes half-empty, very powerfull skill if not used too often

if 0.9 runs fine they will upgrade by themselfs, if it does not, well..then it would be unwise to force them to anyway.

[nioc]

The price is now down to 8 deposit bottles/XMR.

One 1-liter bottle buys you more than 1 XMR...

In the US it varies by state but where I am deposit bottles, and cans, are 5 cents regardless of size and has been for 50 years.  We beat inflation!!!!

I found 1.5 XMR today

[smooth]

Congratulations to everyone who has made this the #1 thread, now by Views in addition to Replies!

[luigi1111]

Congratulations to everyone who has made this the #1 thread, now by Views in addition to Replies!

Congrats to you on this very successful thread, with (IMO) mostly high SNR and few moderator actions required.

[BurstIncomeAsset]

Any speculation on when will Monero have a useable and bug-free GUI wallet?

No exact date, but just a range estimation: weeks, months?

[dnaleor]

Congratulations to everyone who has made this the #1 thread, now by Views in addition to Replies!

thx for your moderation smooth!

[rpietila]

Any speculation on when will Monero have a useable and bug-free GUI wallet?

No exact date, but just a range estimation: weeks, months?

MyMonero was launched last October, and is one candidate technology to be included to Crypto Kingdom player-controlled out-of-game account, which can be accessed from the game, but the players only holding the use key. The players also control their ingame wallets, which feature instant and free transactions, but have the counterparty risk because the actual XMR is deposited with a treasurer and the game can change their balance (similar to exchange accounts).