[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

there was/is a painter bot active and i hate it, risto pointed it out some time ago. dont know what kind of algo this is, but its pretty good in painting candles red without spending a lot of money.
it does this on different time scales too if possible.

@pegasus: funny findings after October a huge crash happend, some of us got burned, but it made us strong. then a bubble happend, those who went through darkness without fear got rewarded. it was hell of a ride and it will continue like that  

I think it is mostly painting green, but during the time risto pointed it out it was painting red (thus switched in reverse). I also think it is currently painting green.

The reason why someone would use it is to play it against his own bids to camouflage his market buys and other upwards pressure during accumulation.

If it bothers you too much, just set up your own 

All of this manipulation can work provided the fundamentals do not change. If the fundamentals do change watch out. Currently the bears can still focus on the 0.8.8.6 "official" binaries with over 8 GB in RAM requirements. How long this will last remains to be seen.

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[Melbustus]

...
Currently the bears can still focus on the 0.8.8.6 "official" binaries with over 8 GB in RAM requirements. How long this will last remains to be seen.

I think you're over-estimating the effect on price that the next official binary release is likely to have. For better or worse (depends if one is accumulating or not, I suppose), I think the reality is that it's going to take an "official" GUI and/or more real services making use of XMR for there to be price movements that aren't mostly due to traders playing around.

[ArticMine]

...
Currently the bears can still focus on the 0.8.8.6 "official" binaries with over 8 GB in RAM requirements. How long this will last remains to be seen.

I think you're over-estimating the effect on price that the next official binary release is likely to have. For better or worse (depends if one is accumulating or not, I suppose), I think the reality is that it's going to take an "official" GUI and/or more real services making use of XMR for there to be price movements that aren't mostly due to traders playing around.

This may well be the case; however I find it very hard to believe that the market has ignored the fact that there have not been an update to the "official" binaries for well over 9 months.

Edit 1: Here is an example of what I mean, from the main thread.

Hello,

 Seems that 8GB of memory is no more sufficent to load the blockchain on Windows... When i launch the bitmonero daemon, Windows says there's no more memory available for the process and kill it. I try to unload many things and boot windows very light, but same problem.

 It's time to go to the db version ?

This is someone who posted and asked for help. The question in my mind is how many did not post and just "gave up". This kind of thing is bound to have an impact on the market.

Edit 2: Windows Memory Limits http://www.ricksdailytips.com/windows-memory-limits/ Note; Windows 7 Home Basic with a limit of 8GB is actually fairly common.

[smoothie]

Idk about that, I don't have the slightest idea of what I could do to help Monero personally since I'm pretty much technologically handicapped when it comes to cryptography.

For the non-technical contributors, there are always things to do in terms of improving the web site, social media, creative marketing ideas, outreach to merchants, users, and opinion makers, etc. And also crowdfunding of various Monero-related projects which not only helps the projects but gives you a direct say in what projects get done.

However, as a new arrival I'd suggest that you simply learn as much as you can first, then decide how you can help Monero succeed.

I have made a thread here with more specific tasks (and potential deadlines) that people can add to and sign up for!

Please check it out and contribute by adding new tasks, sign-up for tasks and debate/suggest other things.

https://forum.getmonero.org/6/ideas/2395/task-list-to-do-list

I just posted up an idea on the list and think it could be a really good one at that...

I was thinking, maybe we could make a bunch of stickers made with a QR code on it that would link someone to getmonero.org on their smartphone... I know in the city I live in there are a bunch of stickers promoting businesses, bands, and well, anything really... I think if we would have the just the Monero symbol and nothing else with a QR code on it, then people would be like, "what the hell is this"?

Downtown in my city is full of bars and is a college town, so maybe it would inspire just 1 person or 1,000 students to get interested...

What you guys think?

It sounds like something worth trying.

[smoothie]

there was/is a painter bot active and i hate it, risto pointed it out some time ago. dont know what kind of algo this is, but its pretty good in painting candles red without spending a lot of money.
it does this on different time scales too if possible.

@pegasus: funny findings after October a huge crash happend, some of us got burned, but it made us strong. then a bubble happend, those who went through darkness without fear got rewarded. it was hell of a ride and it will continue like that  

I think it is mostly painting green, but during the time risto pointed it out it was painting red (thus switched in reverse). I also think it is currently painting green.

The reason why someone would use it is to play it against his own bids to camouflage his market buys and other upwards pressure during accumulation.

If it bothers you too much, just set up your own 

All of this manipulation can work provided the fundamentals do not change. If the fundamentals do change watch out. Currently the bears can still focus on the 0.8.8.6 "official" binaries with over 8 GB in RAM requirements. How long this will last remains to be seen.

Call it a "gift" that that is pushing the price lower than if there was a new binary or gui etc. 

[smoothie]

...
Currently the bears can still focus on the 0.8.8.6 "official" binaries with over 8 GB in RAM requirements. How long this will last remains to be seen.

I think you're over-estimating the effect on price that the next official binary release is likely to have. For better or worse (depends if one is accumulating or not, I suppose), I think the reality is that it's going to take an "official" GUI and/or more real services making use of XMR for there to be price movements that aren't mostly due to traders playing around.

This may well be the case; however I find it very hard to believe that the market has ignored the fact that there have not been an update to the "official" binaries for well over 9 months.

Edit 1: Here is an example of what I mean, from the main thread.

Hello,

 Seems that 8GB of memory is no more sufficent to load the blockchain on Windows... When i launch the bitmonero daemon, Windows says there's no more memory available for the process and kill it. I try to unload many things and boot windows very light, but same problem.

 It's time to go to the db version ?

This is someone who posted and asked for help. The question in my mind is how many did not post and just "gave up". This kind of thing is bound to have an impact on the market.

Edit 2: Windows Memory Limits http://www.ricksdailytips.com/windows-memory-limits/ Note; Windows 7 Home Basic with a limit of 8GB is actually fairly common.

If I'm not mistaken, it doesn't really matter how much RAM you have in windows (say a VM). It will eat up your RAM if it is 4GB or 8GB. I believe smooth or fluffypony said this. But if I am wrong, please correct me.

The next release will help with this issue.

[SmoothCurves]

...
Currently the bears can still focus on the 0.8.8.6 "official" binaries with over 8 GB in RAM requirements. How long this will last remains to be seen.

I think you're over-estimating the effect on price that the next official binary release is likely to have. For better or worse (depends if one is accumulating or not, I suppose), I think the reality is that it's going to take an "official" GUI and/or more real services making use of XMR for there to be price movements that aren't mostly due to traders playing around.

We wont see an official GUI until around summer of next year. I'm ok with being able to accumulate till then.

[languagehasmeaning]

...
Currently the bears can still focus on the 0.8.8.6 "official" binaries with over 8 GB in RAM requirements. How long this will last remains to be seen.

I think you're over-estimating the effect on price that the next official binary release is likely to have. For better or worse (depends if one is accumulating or not, I suppose), I think the reality is that it's going to take an "official" GUI and/or more real services making use of XMR for there to be price movements that aren't mostly due to traders playing around.

This may well be the case; however I find it very hard to believe that the market has ignored the fact that there have not been an update to the "official" binaries for well over 9 months.

Edit 1: Here is an example of what I mean, from the main thread.

Hello,

 Seems that 8GB of memory is no more sufficent to load the blockchain on Windows... When i launch the bitmonero daemon, Windows says there's no more memory available for the process and kill it. I try to unload many things and boot windows very light, but same problem.

 It's time to go to the db version ?

This is someone who posted and asked for help. The question in my mind is how many did not post and just "gave up". This kind of thing is bound to have an impact on the market.

Edit 2: Windows Memory Limits http://www.ricksdailytips.com/windows-memory-limits/ Note; Windows 7 Home Basic with a limit of 8GB is actually fairly common.

If I'm not mistaken, it doesn't really matter how much RAM you have in windows (say a VM). It will eat up your RAM if it is 4GB or 8GB. I believe smooth or fluffypony said this. But if I am wrong, please correct me.

The next release will help with this issue.

I am guessing about half of the bitcointalk community already has 8GB of RAM but I could be wrong. Of those who have less some will be willing to compile the db version now and some will not

[rpietila]

If I'm not mistaken, it doesn't really matter how much RAM you have in windows (say a VM). It will eat up your RAM if it is 4GB or 8GB. I believe smooth or fluffypony said this. But if I am wrong, please correct me.

The next release will help with this issue.

Exactly. I am not among the keenest computer wizards here (by a margin) but even I understand that there is no issue, it is smart design.

It's the same that Firefox uses all the free memory, but if something else needs it, it frees what is needed. Automagically. It works better with more memory so it's stupid to leave it idle. Some other applications (Excel for instance) don't benefit from excess memory so don't reserve it either.

[ArticMine]

...

If I'm not mistaken, it doesn't really matter how much RAM you have in windows (say a VM). It will eat up your RAM if it is 4GB or 8GB. I believe smooth or fluffypony said this. But if I am wrong, please correct me.

The next release will help with this issue.

Of course the next official release will not only help but actually solve this issue. The Memory requirements are actually below 100 MB.  In fact this has been the case for a while for those of us who are prepared to compile from source. My point is that many people who simply go to https://getmonero.org and download a binary do not see this at all, and this is bound to have a very significant impact on the price.

This discrepancy between the 9 month old official binaries and the source code available today has created a situation that is extremely dangerous for those who are short Monero. The risk of a brutal short squeeze following the release of 0.9 is very real.

Edit 1: I run both. The official 0.8.8.6 release and the recent compiled binaries. There is a reason why I run the 9 month old code. It provides very useful market information.
Edit 2: On Kubuntu 14.04 I get 8.04 8.18 GB for bitmonerod alone with 0.8.8.6 and this memory is not released.

[elrippo]

...

If I'm not mistaken, it doesn't really matter how much RAM you have in windows (say a VM). It will eat up your RAM if it is 4GB or 8GB. I believe smooth or fluffypony said this. But if I am wrong, please correct me.

The next release will help with this issue.

Of course the next official release will not only help but actually solve this issue. The Memory requirements are actually below 100 MB.  In fact this has been the case for a while for those of us who are prepared to compile from source. My point is that many people who simply go to https://getmonero.org and download a binary do not see this at all, and this is bound to have a very significant impact on the price.

This discrepancy between the 9 month old official binaries and the source code available today has created a situation that is extremely dangerous for those who are short Monero. The risk of a brutal short squeeze following the release of 0.9 is very real.

Edit 1: I run both. The official 0.8.8.6 release and the recent compiled binaries. There is a reason why I run the 9 month old code. It provides very useful market information.
Edit 2: On Kubuntu 14.04 I get 8.04 8.18 GB for bitmonerod alone with 0.8.8.6 and this memory is not released.

Jope, same here on Kubuntu 14.04 

[XMRpromotions]

...

If I'm not mistaken, it doesn't really matter how much RAM you have in windows (say a VM). It will eat up your RAM if it is 4GB or 8GB. I believe smooth or fluffypony said this. But if I am wrong, please correct me.

The next release will help with this issue.

Of course the next official release will not only help but actually solve this issue. The Memory requirements are actually below 100 MB.  In fact this has been the case for a while for those of us who are prepared to compile from source. My point is that many people who simply go to https://getmonero.org and download a binary do not see this at all, and this is bound to have a very significant impact on the price.

This discrepancy between the 9 month old official binaries and the source code available today has created a situation that is extremely dangerous for those who are short Monero. The risk of a brutal short squeeze following the release of 0.9 is very real.

Edit 1: I run both. The official 0.8.8.6 release and the recent compiled binaries. There is a reason why I run the 9 month old code. It provides very useful market information.
Edit 2: On Kubuntu 14.04 I get 8.04 8.18 GB for bitmonerod alone with 0.8.8.6 and this memory is not released.

Clever idea to run both just to understand what the new people see when they run 0.8.8.6

[owm123]

...

If I'm not mistaken, it doesn't really matter how much RAM you have in windows (say a VM). It will eat up your RAM if it is 4GB or 8GB. I believe smooth or fluffypony said this. But if I am wrong, please correct me.

The next release will help with this issue.

Of course the next official release will not only help but actually solve this issue. The Memory requirements are actually below 100 MB.  In fact this has been the case for a while for those of us who are prepared to compile from source. My point is that many people who simply go to https://getmonero.org and download a binary do not see this at all, and this is bound to have a very significant impact on the price.

This discrepancy between the 9 month old official binaries and the source code available today has created a situation that is extremely dangerous for those who are short Monero. The risk of a brutal short squeeze following the release of 0.9 is very real.

Edit 1: I run both. The official 0.8.8.6 release and the recent compiled binaries. There is a reason why I run the 9 month old code. It provides very useful market information.
Edit 2: On Kubuntu 14.04 I get 8.04 8.18 GB for bitmonerod alone with 0.8.8.6 and this memory is not released.

Clever idea to run both just to understand what the new people see when they run 0.8.8.6

What so special about current github version in comparison to 0.8.8.6 that would warrant using it, when its still in development?

[opennux]

...

If I'm not mistaken, it doesn't really matter how much RAM you have in windows (say a VM). It will eat up your RAM if it is 4GB or 8GB. I believe smooth or fluffypony said this. But if I am wrong, please correct me.

The next release will help with this issue.

Of course the next official release will not only help but actually solve this issue. The Memory requirements are actually below 100 MB.  In fact this has been the case for a while for those of us who are prepared to compile from source. My point is that many people who simply go to https://getmonero.org and download a binary do not see this at all, and this is bound to have a very significant impact on the price.

This discrepancy between the 9 month old official binaries and the source code available today has created a situation that is extremely dangerous for those who are short Monero. The risk of a brutal short squeeze following the release of 0.9 is very real.

Edit 1: I run both. The official 0.8.8.6 release and the recent compiled binaries. There is a reason why I run the 9 month old code. It provides very useful market information.
Edit 2: On Kubuntu 14.04 I get 8.04 8.18 GB for bitmonerod alone with 0.8.8.6 and this memory is not released.

(Not knowing much about it)... But does that make it possible for you to see how many are running which version?

[ArticMine]

...

What so special about current github version in comparison to 0.8.8.6 that would warrant using it, when its still in development?

The short answer: The github version requires well under 100 MB of RAM to run while the 0.8.8.6 version requires well over 8 GB of RAM once the operating system is factored in. The performance and stability is also way better.

The more technical answer is that the github version uses LMDB and in some cases Berkeley DB to store the blockchain while the 0.8.8.6 version has to store the entire blockchain in RAM. With many computers having less 8 GB or less of RAM this makes a major difference. I also find that the 0.8.8.6 version will crash after about 4 days, while github version is stable.

The RAM issue is just one thing. In reality we are dealing with over 9 months of development work in a project that is just under 18 monts old.

In the current situation one has four choices:
1) Throw a large amount of hardware to Monero say 16 GB of RAM etc
2) Learn to compile from source
3) Use MyMonero.com or a similar service
4) Leave the XMR in an exchange.

This will change once 0.9 comes out when simply downloading a binary that will work on almost all 64 bit computers becomes an option.

[saddambitcoin]

I think by market information he means that newcomers will try the precompiled binaries (non-DB) and that's possibly their first impression of Monero.

What's special about the new stuff? Using only 100 MB of RAM (or less), watch only wallets using viewkey, integrated addresses (the payment ID is integrated into the address, really cool), among lots of under the hood optimizations that make the whole experience a lot faster and less intensive on your system.

^^I typed this before ArticMine replied but don't feel like erasing it.

[ArticMine]

I think by market information he means that newcomers will try the precompiled binaries (non-DB) and that's possibly their first impression of Monero.
...

The market impact is what does the newcomer do in both cases once the precomplied binaries are downloaded and run?
1) Buy
2) Sell

[smooth]

I think by market information he means that newcomers will try the precompiled binaries (non-DB) and that's possibly their first impression of Monero.
...

The market impact is what does the newcomer do in both cases once the precomplied binaries are downloaded and run?
1) Buy
2) Sell

Also consider the case of an investor who really doesn't care about running the node but visits the download page and tries it out as a mater of due diligence.

Old version: takes days or even weeks to sync, may crash or fail on a computer with <8 GB or cause horrible system performance impact. old release date makes project appear inactive or abandoned

New version: sync in a few hours (possibly slower depending on hardware and bandwidth, but certainly much better than the old one), more reliable, little to no system performance impact, recent release date.

[smoothie]

I think by market information he means that newcomers will try the precompiled binaries (non-DB) and that's possibly their first impression of Monero.
...

The market impact is what does the newcomer do in both cases once the precomplied binaries are downloaded and run?
1) Buy
2) Sell

3) Do nothing.

[phishead]

Maybe good start is this website which seems to be unbiased and compares different coins in therms of their launch:
http://www.devtome.com/doku.php?id=a_massive_investigation_of_instamines_and_fastmines_for_the_top_alt_coins

But still this is only one website. More research you must do probably.

So I read a lot about most of the stuff on the website and it was a really interesting read and didn't know how many coins were out there that instamined all of their coins, it's a good thing that a couple of people out there in the world is keeping an eye on these kind of things.

But if I were to want to get more into the unbiased research of Monero in terms of protocol and what each altcoin offers in terms of speed of transaction, privacy, and that kind of thing... where would I go?  I wouldn't even know where to begin to look and at this point in time, I just go off based of what people tell me on this forum.  Has this guy made a post somewhere that answers all these types of questions in a very laid out format like this guy did in the post above?

Thanks, I feel like I'm learning so much in such a short amount of time when it comes to cryptos in general.

Edit: Also, I have heard on some threads on here that Satoshi has roughly 1 Million BTC that he possesses.. does this mean that bitcoin was a fast mined coin or something of that nature?